1. NCAAB
  2. Fri, Nov 13
  3. SDAK @ DRKE
NCAAB · Fri, Nov 13

South Dakota Coyotes at Drake Bulldogs

Knapp Center · at Drake
#291SDAKSouth Dakota
@
#144DRKEDrake
LineNo line yet 
Total— 
SDAKThis seasonDRKE
0-0Record0-0
0-0ATS0-0
0-0O/U0-0

ATS = covered-didn’t-push · O/U = overs-unders

Model: projects DRKE 83–70 · win probability DRKE 86%
Pick this game
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Winner
Line
—
no line yet
Total
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model 153.0
Model edge
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No market line yet
Public
—
No split yet for this game
The model has not beaten the closing line: with an edge of 3 or more it went 409-367 in 2025-26. Model record

What could decide it: DRKE has more of the edges

SDAK 1, DRKE 5 · 2025-26 numbers until both teams have played three games
DRKEBig
DRKE offense vs SDAK defense
Offense 168th of 366 against a defense 355th, on the model’s ratings
Context
Schedule so far
SDAK has played the 305th-hardest schedule, DRKE the 147th. A record against a soft schedule means less
SDAKBig
Free throws
Free throw rate: SDAK 45.2, DRKE 33.5. Allowed: SDAK 31.0, DRKE 32.0
Context
Tempo
About 71 possessions: SDAK plays 72.6 a game (23rd fastest), DRKE 68.4 (209th). Faster games mean more points
DRKESmall
Shooting
Effective FG%: SDAK 49.9 and allows 54.5; DRKE 51.4 and allows 52.6
DRKESmall
SDAK offense vs DRKE defense
Offense 197th of 366 against a defense 132nd, on the model’s ratings
DRKESmall
Home court
DRKE at home. This season: DRKE 0-0 at home, SDAK 0-0 away
DRKESmall
Who is back
Minutes back from last season: SDAK 26%, DRKE 51%. Transfers in: SDAK 6, DRKE 3. Early in a season, turnover makes teams harder to price
Even
Rebounding
Offensive rebound rate: SDAK 28.7%, DRKE 26.6%. Defensive: SDAK 69.7%, DRKE 70.1%
Even
Turnovers
Turnover rate: SDAK 16.5%, DRKE 15.0%. Forced: SDAK 15.9%, DRKE 14.6%
Even
Three-pointers
SDAK hits 32.4% and allows 34.5%; DRKE hits 34.0% and allows 36.4%. Threes are 35.9% and 45.7% of their shots
Sorted by how lopsided each matchup is, from national ranks. Reasons to look, not picks: the market already knows most of this.

Market

Open → current
Spread
Opening line not available
Total
 
Moneyline
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Pre-game lines only (ESPN, DraftKings first). After tip-off the line shown is the closing line.

Model vs market

MarketModelModel edge
Spread—DRKE -12.1—
Total—153.0—
Projected score—SDAK 70.4 · DRKE 82.5

1st-half model

1st-half slate ›
ModelActual
1H spreadDRKE -7.1—
1H total71.5—
1H projected scoreSDAK 32.2 · DRKE 39.3—
The 1st-half model is fitted from the full-game model and past halves. ESPN has no 1st-half lines for college games, so there is no market to compare it with.

Drake has the better starters

Position by position: South Dakota 0, Drake 2, even 3
South DakotaBetterDrake
G J. Summers TR9.8 pts · 2.4 reb · 0.9 ast Score 22
Even
G A. Alia6.8 pts · 4.7 reb · 1.4 ast Score 27
G M. Sanchez TR9.7 pts · 2.1 reb · 0.7 ast Score 34
Even
G O. Larson10 pts · 3.3 reb · 2.8 ast Score 42
G V. Buzelis7.1 pts · 4.4 reb · 1.4 ast Score 27
DRKESmall
G E. Shetlar9 pts · 4.3 reb · 1.3 ast Score 57
G K. Kublickas TR5.5 pts · 2.4 reb · 2.7 ast Score 19
Even
F G. Oldham TR5.5 pts · 7.5 reb · 1 ast Score 21
F E. Kizer4 pts · 1.5 reb · 0.2 ast Score 5
DRKEBig
F J. Carroll TR10.7 pts · 8.1 reb · 0.6 ast Score 78
South DakotaBetterDrake
SDAK offense197th of 366 · -6.1
DRKESmall
DRKE defense132nd of 366 · -2.5
SDAK defense355th of 366 · -10.1
DRKEBig
DRKE offense168th of 366 · -5.1
Backcourt-7.3 · 4 players
DRKEBig
Backcourt-3.7 · 3 players
Frontcourt-2.0 · 1 player
DRKESmall
Frontcourt-0.5 · 2 players
Bench-1.8 · 4 players
DRKESmall
Bench+0.1 · 2 players
Score, worst to bestSDAK betterDRKE betterTR transfer · NEW no Division I numbers
Projected starters: college teams publish no depth chart, so these come from minutes played, and a freshman or a new starter can change them. The score is the share of ranked players at the position that player is ahead of. Numbers are this season's once a player has 30 minutes, 2025-26's before that. Bench is the next five by minutes. Tap a player for the full numbers.

Depth chart

Projected rotation by position, starters outlined
South Dakota
Guards
J. Summers27 min · TRM. Sanchez25 min · TRV. Buzelis24 minK. Kublickas20 min · TRC. Kelderman4 min · TRE. WarrenNew
Forwards
E. Kizer15 minJ. Brack14 minJ. Townley-Thomas5 min · TRT. NetolickyNewB. DomschNew
Centers
S. van Bussel5 min · TR
Drake
Guards
A. Alia32 minO. Larson29 minE. Shetlar28 minD. Kindell17 min · TRD. IjadimbolaNewL. RushNew
Forwards
G. Oldham26 min · TRJ. Carroll25 min · TRG. Goodbary13 minJ. BurnsNewM. FlemonsNew
In order of minutes, from rosters as of today. ESPN lists players only as guards, forwards or centers, and no injury report exists for college basketball, so a player who is out may still show here.
Showing 2025-26 until both teams have played this season.

Matchup stats

2025-26 · rank among 365 teams
Scoring
Shooting
Possessions
Defense
SDAKDRKE
Scoring
78.0 #94Points per game73.9 #200
1.07 #207Points per possession1.08 #182
72.6 #23Pace (possessions)68.4 #209
Shooting
49.9 #239Effective FG%51.4 #179
32.4 #2643-point %34.0 #172
35.9 #2513-point attempt rate45.7 #53
45.2 #4Free throw rate33.5 #223
Possessions
16.5 #168Turnover rate15.0 #64
28.7 #242Offensive rebound rate26.6 #310
11.9 #295Assists per game13.1 #202
Defense
81.7 #337Points allowed76.3 #225
1.13 #284Points allowed per possession1.12 #261
54.5 #318Opponent effective FG%52.6 #246
34.5 #219Opponent 3-point %36.4 #323
15.9 #225Turnovers forced14.6 #315
69.7 #172Defensive rebound rate70.1 #155
6.1 #223Steals per game5.2 #319
2.6 #293Blocks per game2.9 #241
From the box scores. A longer bar is a better national rank, on every row; the better team's bar is solid. A green rank is near the top of Division I, a red one near the bottom. Pace and 3-point rate are styles, so they have no better side.

South Dakota

13-16 in 2025-26 overall · 8-9 in conference · Summit League

Last five, 2025-26
  • Lvs Omaha62–76
  • Wvs S Dakota St75–70
  • Wvs Omaha89–72
  • L@ Oral Roberts62–67
  • L@ Denver70–90

A week or more of rest.

Drake

12-20 in 2025-26 overall · 8-15 in conference · Missouri Valley Conference

Last five, 2025-26
  • Lvs UIC51–72
  • Wvs Belmont100–79
  • Wvs S Illinois67–63
  • Lvs Northern Iowa53–75
  • L@ Valparaiso71–74

A week or more of rest.