South Dakota Coyotes at Nebraska Cornhuskers: Model Line and Edge

Wed, Nov 18, 8:30 PM ETPinnacle Bank Arena · at Nebraska

LineNo line yet

Total—

Season records: South Dakota and Nebraska
SDAK	This season	NEB
0-0	Record	0-0
0-0	ATS	0-0
0-0	O/U	0-0

ATS = covered-didn’t-push · O/U = overs-unders

Model: projects NEB 92–61 · win probability NEB 100%

Pick this game

Your picksMy picks ›

Winner

Line

—

no line yet

Total

—

model 153.0

Model edge

—

No market line yet

Public

—

No split yet for this game

The model has not beaten the closing line: with an edge of 3 or more it went 409-367 in 2025-26. Model record

What could decide it: NEB has more of the edges

SDAK 1, NEB 6 · 2025-26 numbers until both teams have played three games

NEBBig

NEB offense vs SDAK defense

Offense 43rd of 366 against a defense 355th, on the model’s ratings

Context

Schedule so far

SDAK has played the 305th-hardest schedule, NEB the 59th. A record against a soft schedule means less

NEBBig

Shooting

Effective FG%: SDAK 49.9 and allows 54.5; NEB 55.5 and allows 48.1

NEBBig

Three-pointers

SDAK hits 32.4% and allows 34.5%; NEB hits 35.5% and allows 30.5%. Threes are 35.9% and 51.1% of their shots

NEBBig

SDAK offense vs NEB defense

Offense 197th of 366 against a defense 23rd, on the model’s ratings

NEBBig

Turnovers

Turnover rate: SDAK 16.5%, NEB 14.5%. Forced: SDAK 15.9%, NEB 18.9%

SDAKBig

Free throws

Free throw rate: SDAK 45.2, NEB 26.2. Allowed: SDAK 31.0, NEB 25.1

Context

Tempo

About 70 possessions: SDAK plays 72.6 a game (23rd fastest), NEB 67.3 (267th). Faster games mean more points

NEBSmall

Home court

NEB at home. This season: NEB 0-0 at home, SDAK 0-0 away

Even

Who is back

Minutes back from last season: SDAK 26%, NEB 48%. Transfers in: SDAK 6, NEB 6. Early in a season, turnover makes teams harder to price

Even

Rebounding

Offensive rebound rate: SDAK 28.7%, NEB 26.7%. Defensive: SDAK 69.7%, NEB 72.6%

Sorted by how lopsided each matchup is, from national ranks. Reasons to look, not picks: the market already knows most of this.

Model vs market

	Market	Model	Model edge
Spread	—	NEB -30.6	—
Total	—	153.0	—
Projected score	—	SDAK 61.2 · NEB 91.8

1st-half model

1st-half slate ›

	Model	Actual
1H spread	NEB -18.1	—
1H total	71.5	—
1H projected score	SDAK 26.7 · NEB 44.8	—

The 1st-half model is fitted from the full-game model and past halves. ESPN has no 1st-half lines for college games, so there is no market to compare it with.

Showing 2025-26 until both teams have played this season.

ATS

2025-26 season

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
SDAK LLWWL	16-13	55%	6-7	—
NEB WLWWL	19-16	54%	8-10	—

Venue/role: SDAK away; NEB home. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

2025-26 season

	O-U	Over %	SU
SDAK UUOUU	12-17	41%	13-16
NEB OUUUO	11-24	31%	28-7

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Tap for the score and line.

Last 10 games

2025-26

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
SDAK	5-5 50%	6-4 60%	3-7 30%
NEB	6-4 60%	5-5 50%	3-7 30%

Wins-losses (pushes last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Next 3 games

With how the last meeting with each opponent went

South Dakota

Date	Game	Last meeting
Nov 22	vs UTU	L79–81LU
Nov 25	vs UAPB	No recent meeting
Nov 30	vs MTST	No recent meeting

Nebraska

Date	Game	Last meeting
Nov 22	vs BTLR	No recent meeting
Nov 25	vs SOU	W77–43WU
Dec 2	vs OSU	W72–69WU

Last meeting: result, against the spread, over / under. Hover a result for its date.

Recent meetings

Since 2021-22

SDAK 0–2 NEBNEB leads · 2 games since 2021-22 · NEB has won the last 2 meetings · SDAK 1-1 ATS

Date	Result	Line	Covered
Nov 27, 2024-25	SDAK 79 @ NEB 96	NEB -22.5	SDAK W
Nov 27, 2021-22	SDAK 70 @ NEB 83	NEB -12	NEB W

ATS History · 2025-26

WwinLloss·Wats winLats lossPpush·Owent over the totalUwent under the total

South Dakota

29 games played

Straight up

13-16

45% wins

Against the spread

16-13

55% covers · avg +0.5 pts vs the line

Over / Under

12-17

41% overs · avg −1.2 pts vs the total

Straight up

13-1645%

L L W W L W W L L L W L L L W W L W L W L W W L L L W W L

2 of last 4 wonno streak

Against the spread

16-1355%

L W W W L L W L W L W L L W W W L W L W W W W L L L W W L

2 of last 4 coveredno streak

Over / Under

12-1741%

U U U U U O U U O O O O U O U O O U O U O O U U U U O U U

2 straight unders1 of last 4 over

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Nov 3	vsUTU	L 79-81	-1.5	L −3.5	164.5	U 160
Nov 5	@CREI	L 76-92	+29.5	W +13.5	169.5	U 168
Nov 12	vsUSI	W 89-74	-7.5	W +7.5	164.5	U 163
Nov 16	vsWMU	W 83-78	-3.5	W +1.5	172.5	U 161
Nov 20	@MIZ	L 68-102	+24.5	L −9.5	171.5	U 170
Nov 23	vsSCST	W 82-81	-15.5	L −14.5	160.5	O 163
Nov 29	vsAF	W 80-63	-3.5	W +13.5	147.5	U 143
Dec 3	vsPRST	L 71-77	+2.5	L −3.5	158.5	U 148
Dec 6	@UNCO	L 87-89	+8.5	W +6.5	162.5	O 176
Dec 9	@WYO	L 79-106	+14.5	L −12.5	161.5	O 185
Dec 13	vsPV	W 97-85	-6.5	W +5.5	168.5	O 182
Dec 20	@KSU	L 76-106	+21.5	L −8.5	176.5	O 182
Dec 31	@NDSU	L 61-84	+11.5	L −11.5	164.5	U 145
Jan 7	@STMN	L 86-99	+14.5	W +1.5	162.5	O 185
Jan 10	vsDEN	W 82-72	+1.5	W +11.5	169.5	U 154
Jan 15	vsKC	W 99-83	-7.5	W +8.5	156.5	O 182
Jan 17	@UND	L 80-96	+1.5	L −14.5	160.5	O 176
Jan 21	@OMA	W 68-64	+6.5	W +10.5	160.5	U 132
Jan 24	vsSTMN	L 78-90	+10.5	L −1.5	161.5	O 168
Jan 29	vsORU	W 77-69	-3.5	W +4.5	154.5	U 146
Jan 31	vsNDSU	L 84-89	+8.5	W +3.5	154.5	O 173
Feb 4	@KC	W 82-75	-2.5	W +4.5	156.5	O 157
Feb 7	@SDST	W 68-67	+11.5	W +12.5	159.5	U 135
Feb 11	vsUND	L 71-72	-2.5	L −3.5	156.5	U 143
Feb 19	@DEN	L 70-90	+5.5	L −14.5	163.5	U 160
Feb 21	@ORU	L 62-67	+1.5	L −3.5	151.5	U 129
Feb 25	vsOMA	W 89-72	-1.5	W +15.5	152.5	O 161
Feb 28	vsSDST	W 75-70	+3.5	W +8.5	151.5	U 145
Mar 6	vsOMA	L 62-76	+1.5	L −12.5	150.5	U 138

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

UTU

L 79-81

−3.5

CREI

L 76-92

+13.5

USI

W 89-74

+7.5

WMU

W 83-78

+1.5

MIZ

L 68-102

−9.5

SCST

W 82-81

−14.5

W 80-63

+13.5

PRST

L 71-77

−3.5

UNCO

L 87-89

+6.5

WYO

L 79-106

−12.5

W 97-85

+5.5

KSU

L 76-106

−8.5

NDSU

L 61-84

−11.5

STMN

L 86-99

+1.5

DEN

W 82-72

+11.5

W 99-83

+8.5

UND

L 80-96

−14.5

OMA

W 68-64

+10.5

STMN

L 78-90

−1.5

ORU

W 77-69

+4.5

NDSU

L 84-89

+3.5

W 82-75

+4.5

SDST

W 68-67

+12.5

UND

L 71-72

−3.5

DEN

L 70-90

−14.5

ORU

L 62-67

−3.5

OMA

W 89-72

+15.5

SDST

W 75-70

+8.5

OMA

L 62-76

−12.5

covered 16didn’t cover 13avg +0.5 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

UTU

L 79-81

−4.5

CREI

L 76-92

−1.5

USI

W 89-74

−1.5

WMU

W 83-78

−11.5

MIZ

L 68-102

−1.5

SCST

W 82-81

+2.5

W 80-63

−4.5

PRST

L 71-77

−10.5

UNCO

L 87-89

+13.5

WYO

L 79-106

+23.5

W 97-85

+13.5

KSU

L 76-106

+5.5

NDSU

L 61-84

−19.5

STMN

L 86-99

+22.5

DEN

W 82-72

−15.5

W 99-83

+25.5

UND

L 80-96

+15.5

OMA

W 68-64

−28.5

STMN

L 78-90

+6.5

ORU

W 77-69

−8.5

NDSU

L 84-89

+18.5

W 82-75

+0.5

SDST

W 68-67

−24.5

UND

L 71-72

−13.5

DEN

L 70-90

−3.5

ORU

L 62-67

−22.5

OMA

W 89-72

+8.5

SDST

W 75-70

−6.5

OMA

L 62-76

−12.5

over 12under 17avg −1.2 ptslonger = bigger margin

Nebraska

35 games played

Straight up

28-7

80% wins

Against the spread

19-16

54% covers · avg +2.7 pts vs the line

Over / Under

11-24

31% overs · avg −6.8 pts vs the total

Straight up

28-780%

W W W W W W W W W W W W W W W W W W W W L L W L W L W W W L W L W W L

2 of last 4 wonno streak

Against the spread

19-1654%

W W L W W L L L W W W L L L W W W W L W W L L L W L W L W L W L W W L

2 of last 4 coveredno streak

Over / Under

11-2431%

U O U O O O U U U U O U U U U O U U U U U U O O U U O U U U O U U U O

1 of last 4 overno streak

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Nov 3	vsWGA	W 86-53	-24.5	W +8.5	153.5	U 139
Nov 8	vsFIU	W 96-66	-21.5	W +8.5	156.5	O 162
Nov 11	vsUMES	W 69-50	-35.5	L −16.5	146.5	U 119
Nov 15	vsOU	W 105-99	-1.5	W +4.5	163.5	O 204
Nov 20	vsUNM	W 84-72	-8.5	W +3.5	151.5	O 156
Nov 21	vsKSU	W 86-85	-1.5	L −0.5	168.5	O 171
Nov 25	vsWIN	W 80-73	-14.5	L −7.5	166.5	U 153
Nov 29	vsUPST	W 72-63	-25.5	L −16.5	157.5	U 135
Dec 7	vsCREI	W 71-50	-5.5	W +15.5	155.5	U 121
Dec 10	vsWIS	W 90-60	-1.5	W +28.5	158.5	U 150
Dec 13	@ILL	W 83-80	+9.5	W +12.5	156.5	O 163
Dec 21	vsUND	W 78-55	-29.5	L −6.5	151.5	U 133
Dec 30	vsUNH	W 86-55	-31.5	L −0.5	146.5	U 141
Jan 2	vsMSU	W 58-56	-2.5	L −0.5	146.5	U 114
Jan 5	@OSU	W 72-69	+2.5	W +5.5	155.5	U 141
Jan 10	@IU	W 83-77	+4.5	W +10.5	150.5	O 160
Jan 13	vsORE	W 90-55	-10.5	W +24.5	146.5	U 145
Jan 17	@NU	W 77-58	-4.5	W +14.5	149.5	U 135
Jan 21	vsWASH	W 76-66	-10.5	L −0.5	152.5	U 142
Jan 24	@MINN	W 76-57	-4.5	W +14.5	140.5	U 133
Jan 27	@MICH	L 72-75	+11.5	W +8.5	157.5	U 147
Feb 1	vsILL	L 69-78	-1.5	L −10.5	154.5	U 147
Feb 7	@RUTG	W 80-68	-12.5	L −0.5	145.5	O 148
Feb 10	vsPUR	L 77-80	-2.5	L −5.5	146.5	O 157
Feb 14	vsNU	W 68-49	-13.5	W +5.5	146.5	U 117
Feb 17	@IOWA	L 52-57	+1.5	L −3.5	139.5	U 109
Feb 21	vsPSU	W 87-64	-17.5	W +5.5	147.5	O 151
Feb 25	vsMD	W 74-61	-16.5	L −3.5	142.5	U 135
Feb 28	@USC	W 82-67	-5.5	W +9.5	149.5	U 149
Mar 3	@UCLA	L 52-72	+1.5	L −18.5	144.5	U 124
Mar 8	vsIOWA	W 84-75	-4.5	W +4.5	136.5	O 159
Mar 13	vsPUR	L 58-74	+4.5	L −11.5	145.5	U 132
Mar 19	vsTROY	W 76-47	-13.5	W +15.5	139.5	U 123
Mar 21	vsVAN	W 74-72	+1.5	W +3.5	146.5	U 146
Mar 26	vsIOWA	L 71-77	-1.5	L −7.5	131.5	O 148

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

WGA

W 86-53

+8.5

FIU

W 96-66

+8.5

UMES

W 69-50

−16.5

W 105-99

+4.5

UNM

W 84-72

+3.5

KSU

W 86-85

−0.5

WIN

W 80-73

−7.5

UPST

W 72-63

−16.5

CREI

W 71-50

+15.5

WIS

W 90-60

+28.5

ILL

W 83-80

+12.5

UND

W 78-55

−6.5

UNH

W 86-55

−0.5

MSU

W 58-56

−0.5

OSU

W 72-69

+5.5

W 83-77

+10.5

ORE

W 90-55

+24.5

W 77-58

+14.5

WASH

W 76-66

−0.5

MINN

W 76-57

+14.5

MICH

L 72-75

+8.5

ILL

L 69-78

−10.5

RUTG

W 80-68

−0.5

PUR

L 77-80

−5.5

W 68-49

+5.5

IOWA

L 52-57

−3.5

PSU

W 87-64

+5.5

W 74-61

−3.5

USC

W 82-67

+9.5

UCLA

L 52-72

−18.5

IOWA

W 84-75

+4.5

PUR

L 58-74

−11.5

TROY

W 76-47

+15.5

VAN

W 74-72

+3.5

IOWA

L 71-77

−7.5

covered 19didn’t cover 16avg +2.7 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

WGA

W 86-53

−14.5

FIU

W 96-66

+5.5

UMES

W 69-50

−27.5

W 105-99

+40.5

UNM

W 84-72

+4.5

KSU

W 86-85

+2.5

WIN

W 80-73

−13.5

UPST

W 72-63

−22.5

CREI

W 71-50

−34.5

WIS

W 90-60

−8.5

ILL

W 83-80

+6.5

UND

W 78-55

−18.5

UNH

W 86-55

−5.5

MSU

W 58-56

−32.5

OSU

W 72-69

−14.5

W 83-77

+9.5

ORE

W 90-55

−1.5

W 77-58

−14.5

WASH

W 76-66

−10.5

MINN

W 76-57

−7.5

MICH

L 72-75

−10.5

ILL

L 69-78

−7.5

RUTG

W 80-68

+2.5

PUR

L 77-80

+10.5

W 68-49

−29.5

IOWA

L 52-57

−30.5

PSU

W 87-64

+3.5

W 74-61

−7.5

USC

W 82-67

−0.5

UCLA

L 52-72

−20.5

IOWA

W 84-75

+22.5

PUR

L 58-74

−13.5

TROY

W 76-47

−16.5

VAN

W 74-72

−0.5

IOWA

L 71-77

+16.5

over 11under 24avg −6.8 ptslonger = bigger margin

Line = the team’s closing spread (negative = favored). ATS number = points beyond the line; total number = combined points.

Nebraska has the better starters

Position by position: South Dakota 0, Nebraska 5, even 0

South DakotaBetterNebraska

G J. Summers TR9.8 pts · 2.4 reb · 0.9 ast Score 22

NEBBig

G T. Leonhardt TR12 pts · 5.4 reb · 5.7 ast Score 83

G M. Sanchez TR9.7 pts · 2.1 reb · 0.7 ast Score 34

NEBBig

F P. Sandfort18.1 pts · 4.9 reb · 2 ast Score 97

G V. Buzelis7.1 pts · 4.4 reb · 1.4 ast Score 27

NEBBig

F B. Kapke TR10.6 pts · 5.7 reb · 0.7 ast Score 77

G K. Kublickas TR5.5 pts · 2.4 reb · 2.7 ast Score 19

NEBBig

F S. Orme TR12.5 pts · 4.9 reb · 1.8 ast Score 86

F E. Kizer4 pts · 1.5 reb · 0.2 ast Score 5

NEBBig

F D. Wilkinson TR14.1 pts · 6.3 reb · 1.2 ast Score 93

South DakotaBetterNebraska

SDAK offense197th of 366 · -6.1

NEBBig

NEB defense23rd of 366 · +5.1

SDAK defense355th of 366 · -10.1

NEBBig

NEB offense43rd of 366 · +4.6

Backcourt-7.3 · 4 players

NEBBig

Backcourt+2.0 · 1 player

Frontcourt-2.0 · 1 player

NEBBig

Frontcourt+13.0 · 4 players

Bench-1.8 · 4 players

NEBBig

Bench+1.7 · 5 players

Score, worst to bestSDAK betterNEB betterTR transfer · NEW no Division I numbers

Projected starters: college teams publish no depth chart, so these come from minutes played, and a freshman or a new starter can change them. The score is the share of ranked players at the position that player is ahead of. Numbers are this season's once a player has 30 minutes, 2025-26's before that. Bench is the next five by minutes. Tap a player for the full numbers.

Depth chart

Projected rotation by position, starters outlined

South Dakota

Guards

J. Summers27 min · TRM. Sanchez25 min · TRV. Buzelis24 minK. Kublickas20 min · TRC. Kelderman4 min · TRE. WarrenNew

Forwards

E. Kizer15 minJ. Brack14 minJ. Townley-Thomas5 min · TRT. NetolickyNewB. DomschNew

Centers

S. van Bussel5 min · TR

Nebraska

Guards

T. Leonhardt35 min · TRC. Jacobsen20 minT. DeGourville19 min · TRC. Essegian14 minJ. LanierNewC. RiceNew

Forwards

P. Sandfort34 minB. Kapke27 min · TRS. Orme26 min · TRD. Wilkinson25 min · TRB. Frager24 minK. Betts6 min · TR

In order of minutes, from rosters as of today. ESPN lists players only as guards, forwards or centers, and no injury report exists for college basketball, so a player who is out may still show here.

Showing 2025-26 until both teams have played this season.

Matchup stats

2025-26 · rank among 365 teams

ChartTable

Scoring

Points per game

SDAK78.0 #94

NEB77.0 #116

Points per possession

SDAK1.07 #207

NEB1.15 #61

Pace (possessions)

SDAK72.6 #23

NEB67.3 #267

Shooting

Effective FG%

SDAK49.9 #239

NEB55.5 #28

3-point %

SDAK32.4 #264

NEB35.5 #91

3-point attempt rate

SDAK35.9 #251

NEB51.1 #9

Free throw rate

SDAK45.2 #4

NEB26.2 #356

Possessions

Turnover rate

SDAK16.5 #168

NEB14.5 #44

Offensive rebound rate

SDAK28.7 #242

NEB26.7 #306

Assists per game

SDAK11.9 #295

NEB18.0 #10

Defense

Points allowed

SDAK81.7 #337

NEB66.1 #14

Points allowed per possession

SDAK1.13 #284

NEB0.98 #13

Opponent effective FG%

SDAK54.5 #318

NEB48.1 #40

Opponent 3-point %

SDAK34.5 #219

NEB30.5 #19

Turnovers forced

SDAK15.9 #225

NEB18.9 #54

Defensive rebound rate

SDAK69.7 #172

NEB72.6 #47

Steals per game

SDAK6.1 #223

NEB7.1 #112

Blocks per game

SDAK2.6 #293

NEB2.5 #303

SDAK		NEB
Scoring
78.0 #94	Points per game	77.0 #116
1.07 #207	Points per possession	1.15 #61
72.6 #23	Pace (possessions)	67.3 #267
Shooting
49.9 #239	Effective FG%	55.5 #28
32.4 #264	3-point %	35.5 #91
35.9 #251	3-point attempt rate	51.1 #9
45.2 #4	Free throw rate	26.2 #356
Possessions
16.5 #168	Turnover rate	14.5 #44
28.7 #242	Offensive rebound rate	26.7 #306
11.9 #295	Assists per game	18.0 #10
Defense
81.7 #337	Points allowed	66.1 #14
1.13 #284	Points allowed per possession	0.98 #13
54.5 #318	Opponent effective FG%	48.1 #40
34.5 #219	Opponent 3-point %	30.5 #19
15.9 #225	Turnovers forced	18.9 #54
69.7 #172	Defensive rebound rate	72.6 #47
6.1 #223	Steals per game	7.1 #112
2.6 #293	Blocks per game	2.5 #303

From the box scores. A longer bar is a better national rank, on every row; the better team's bar is solid. A green rank is near the top of Division I, a red one near the bottom. Pace and 3-point rate are styles, so they have no better side.

South Dakota

13-16 in 2025-26 overall · 8-9 in conference · Summit League

Last five, 2025-26

Lvs Omaha62–76
Wvs S Dakota St75–70
Wvs Omaha89–72
L@ Oral Roberts62–67
L@ Denver70–90

A week or more of rest.

Nebraska

28-7 in 2025-26 overall · 15-6 in conference · Big Ten Conference

Last five, 2025-26

Lvs Iowa71–77
Wvs Vanderbilt74–72
Wvs Troy76–47
Lvs Purdue58–74
Wvs Iowa84–75

A week or more of rest.

South Dakota Coyotes at Nebraska Cornhuskers

What could decide it: NEB has more of the edges

Market

Model vs market

1st-half model

ATS

Totals

Last 10 games

Next 3 games

Recent meetings

ATS History · 2025-26

South Dakota

Nebraska

Nebraska has the better starters

Depth chart

Matchup stats

South Dakota

Nebraska