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  2. Wed, Nov 25
  3. UAPB @ SDAK
NCAAB · Wed, Nov 25

Arkansas-Pine Bluff Golden Lions at South Dakota Coyotes

Sanford Coyote Sports Center · at South Dakota
#363UAPBAR-Pine Bluff
@
#291SDAKSouth Dakota
LineNo line yet 
Total— 
UAPBThis seasonSDAK
0-0Record0-0
0-0ATS0-0
0-0O/U0-0

ATS = covered-didn’t-push · O/U = overs-unders

Model: projects SDAK 84–73 · win probability SDAK 83%
Pick this game
Your picksMy picks ›
Winner
Line
—
no line yet
Total
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model 156.9
Model edge
—
No market line yet
Public
—
No split yet for this game
The model has not beaten the closing line: with an edge of 3 or more it went 409-367 in 2025-26. Model record

What could decide it: SDAK has more of the edges

UAPB 1, SDAK 5 · 2025-26 numbers until both teams have played three games
SDAKBig
Free throws
Free throw rate: UAPB 38.4, SDAK 45.2. Allowed: UAPB 43.6, SDAK 31.0
SDAKBig
SDAK offense vs UAPB defense
Offense 197th of 366 against a defense 365th, on the model’s ratings
SDAKSmall
Rebounding
Offensive rebound rate: UAPB 27.9%, SDAK 28.7%. Defensive: UAPB 65.8%, SDAK 69.7%
UAPBSmall
Three-pointers
UAPB hits 33.6% and allows 33.2%; SDAK hits 32.4% and allows 34.5%. Threes are 37.1% and 35.9% of their shots
SDAKSmall
Turnovers
Turnover rate: UAPB 18.7%, SDAK 16.5%. Forced: UAPB 16.4%, SDAK 15.9%
SDAKSmall
Home court
SDAK at home. This season: SDAK 0-0 at home, UAPB 0-0 away
Even
Shooting
Effective FG%: UAPB 50.0 and allows 52.6; SDAK 49.9 and allows 54.5
Even
Who is back
Minutes back from last season: UAPB 8%, SDAK 26%. Transfers in: UAPB 3, SDAK 6. Early in a season, turnover makes teams harder to price
Even
UAPB offense vs SDAK defense
Offense 337th of 366 against a defense 355th, on the model’s ratings
Context
Tempo
About 72 possessions: UAPB plays 71.5 a game (53rd fastest), SDAK 72.6 (23rd). Faster games mean more points
Context
Schedule so far
UAPB has played the 300th-hardest schedule, SDAK the 305th. A record against a soft schedule means less
Sorted by how lopsided each matchup is, from national ranks. Reasons to look, not picks: the market already knows most of this.

Market

Open → current
Spread
Opening line not available
Total
 
Moneyline
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Pre-game lines only (ESPN, DraftKings first). After tip-off the line shown is the closing line.

Model vs market

MarketModelModel edge
Spread—SDAK -10.9—
Total—156.9—
Projected score—UAPB 73 · SDAK 83.9

1st-half model

1st-half slate ›
ModelActual
1H spreadSDAK -6.3—
1H total73.3—
1H projected scoreUAPB 33.5 · SDAK 39.8—
The 1st-half model is fitted from the full-game model and past halves. ESPN has no 1st-half lines for college games, so there is no market to compare it with.

The starting fives are even

Position by position: AR-Pine Bluff 0, South Dakota 0, even 5
AR-Pine BluffBetterSouth Dakota
G J. Tatum TR7.7 pts · 2.6 reb · 1.8 ast Score 25
Even
G J. Summers TR9.8 pts · 2.4 reb · 0.9 ast Score 22
G J. Hayes4.9 pts · 0.9 reb · 0.3 ast Not ranked
No call
G M. Sanchez TR9.7 pts · 2.1 reb · 0.7 ast Score 34
G D. Giddens TR3 pts · 0.8 reb · 0.3 ast Not ranked
No call
G V. Buzelis7.1 pts · 4.4 reb · 1.4 ast Score 27
G H. Pickett0 pts · 0 reb · 0 ast Not ranked
No call
G K. Kublickas TR5.5 pts · 2.4 reb · 2.7 ast Score 19
F C. Smith TR0.6 pts · 1 reb · 0 ast Not ranked
No call
F E. Kizer4 pts · 1.5 reb · 0.2 ast Score 5
AR-Pine BluffBetterSouth Dakota
UAPB offense337th of 366 · -11.1
Even
SDAK defense355th of 366 · -10.1
UAPB defense365th of 366 · -12.7
SDAKBig
SDAK offense197th of 366 · -6.1
Backcourt-5.1 · 4 players
UAPBSmall
Backcourt-7.3 · 4 players
Frontcourt-0.7 · 1 player
UAPBSmall
Frontcourt-2.0 · 1 player
BenchNo numbers yet
No call
Bench-1.8 · 4 players
Score, worst to bestUAPB betterSDAK betterTR transfer · NEW no Division I numbers
Projected starters: college teams publish no depth chart, so these come from minutes played, and a freshman or a new starter can change them. The score is the share of ranked players at the position that player is ahead of. Numbers are this season's once a player has 30 minutes, 2025-26's before that. Bench is the next five by minutes. Tap a player for the full numbers.

Depth chart

Projected rotation by position, starters outlined
AR-Pine Bluff
Guards
J. Tatum27 min · TRJ. Hayes15 minD. Giddens9 min · TRH. Pickett1 minD. CapriottiNewE. HernandezNew
Forwards
C. Smith7 min · TRC. WilliamsonNewM. WilliamsNewJ. NyakundiNew
South Dakota
Guards
J. Summers27 min · TRM. Sanchez25 min · TRV. Buzelis24 minK. Kublickas20 min · TRC. Kelderman4 min · TRE. WarrenNew
Forwards
E. Kizer15 minJ. Brack14 minJ. Townley-Thomas5 min · TRT. NetolickyNewB. DomschNew
Centers
S. van Bussel5 min · TR
In order of minutes, from rosters as of today. ESPN lists players only as guards, forwards or centers, and no injury report exists for college basketball, so a player who is out may still show here.
Showing 2025-26 until both teams have played this season.

Matchup stats

2025-26 · rank among 365 teams
Scoring
Shooting
Possessions
Defense
UAPBSDAK
Scoring
74.0 #195Points per game78.0 #94
1.04 #277Points per possession1.07 #207
71.5 #53Pace (possessions)72.6 #23
Shooting
50.0 #233Effective FG%49.9 #239
33.6 #1903-point %32.4 #264
37.1 #2273-point attempt rate35.9 #251
38.4 #91Free throw rate45.2 #4
Possessions
18.7 #310Turnover rate16.5 #168
27.9 #271Offensive rebound rate28.7 #242
14.1 #136Assists per game11.9 #295
Defense
81.9 #340Points allowed81.7 #337
1.14 #309Points allowed per possession1.13 #284
52.6 #249Opponent effective FG%54.5 #318
33.2 #136Opponent 3-point %34.5 #219
16.4 #192Turnovers forced15.9 #225
65.8 #321Defensive rebound rate69.7 #172
6.8 #142Steals per game6.1 #223
2.9 #244Blocks per game2.6 #293
From the box scores. A longer bar is a better national rank, on every row; the better team's bar is solid. A green rank is near the top of Division I, a red one near the bottom. Pace and 3-point rate are styles, so they have no better side.

AR-Pine Bluff

11-19 in 2025-26 overall · 10-9 in conference · Southwestern Athletic Conference

Last five, 2025-26
  • Lvs Southern81–84
  • W@ Alcorn St83–48
  • L@ Jackson St78–81
  • Lvs Miss Valley St69–70
  • Wvs Prairie View84–82

A week or more of rest.

South Dakota

13-16 in 2025-26 overall · 8-9 in conference · Summit League

Last five, 2025-26
  • Lvs Omaha62–76
  • Wvs S Dakota St75–70
  • Wvs Omaha89–72
  • L@ Oral Roberts62–67
  • L@ Denver70–90

A week or more of rest.