1. NCAAB
  2. Wed, Nov 18
  3. BC @ HARV
NCAAB · Wed, Nov 18

Boston College Eagles at Harvard Crimson

Lavietes Pavilion · at Harvard
#95BCBoston College
@
#136HARVHarvard
LineNo line yet 
Total— 
BCThis seasonHARV
0-0Record0-0
0-0ATS0-0
0-0O/U0-0

ATS = covered-didn’t-push · O/U = overs-unders

Model: projects BC 72–68 · win probability BC 63%
Pick this game
Your picksMy picks ›
Winner
Line
—
no line yet
Total
—
model 139.4
Model edge
—
No market line yet
Public
—
No split yet for this game
The model has not beaten the closing line: with an edge of 3 or more it went 409-367 in 2025-26. Model record

What could decide it: HARV has more of the edges

BC 1, HARV 4 · 2025-26 numbers until both teams have played three games
HARVBig
Who is back
Minutes back from last season: BC 1%, HARV 81%. Transfers in: BC 11, HARV 0. Early in a season, turnover makes teams harder to price
BCBig
HARV offense vs BC defense
Offense 216th of 366 against a defense 83rd, on the model’s ratings
HARVSmall
Shooting
Effective FG%: BC 47.0 and allows 48.9; HARV 53.2 and allows 50.4
HARVSmall
Three-pointers
BC hits 29.4% and allows 31.9%; HARV hits 34.7% and allows 32.6%. Threes are 42.4% and 40.2% of their shots
Context
Schedule so far
BC has played the 79th-hardest schedule, HARV the 153rd. A record against a soft schedule means less
HARVSmall
Home court
HARV at home. This season: HARV 0-0 at home, BC 0-0 away
Context
Tempo
About 66 possessions: BC plays 67.5 a game (257th fastest), HARV 64.7 (350th). Faster games mean more points
Even
Free throws
Free throw rate: BC 32.4, HARV 25.7. Allowed: BC 34.6, HARV 26.6
Even
Rebounding
Offensive rebound rate: BC 28.3%, HARV 26.8%. Defensive: BC 71.4%, HARV 71.8%
Even
Turnovers
Turnover rate: BC 15.4%, HARV 17.5%. Forced: BC 14.8%, HARV 17.1%
Even
BC offense vs HARV defense
Offense 96th of 366 against a defense 94th, on the model’s ratings
Sorted by how lopsided each matchup is, from national ranks. Reasons to look, not picks: the market already knows most of this.

Market

Open → current
Spread
Opening line not available
Total
 
Moneyline
—

Pre-game lines only (ESPN, DraftKings first). After tip-off the line shown is the closing line.

Model vs market

MarketModelModel edge
Spread—BC -3.9—
Total—139.4—
Projected score—BC 71.7 · HARV 67.7

1st-half model

1st-half slate ›
ModelActual
1H spreadBC -2.5—
1H total65.3—
1H projected scoreBC 33.9 · HARV 31.4—
The 1st-half model is fitted from the full-game model and past halves. ESPN has no 1st-half lines for college games, so there is no market to compare it with.

Boston College has the better starters

Position by position: Boston College 3, Harvard 1, even 1
Boston CollegeBetterHarvard
G E. Shelton TR15.9 pts · 3.1 reb · 0.9 ast Score 65
Even
G T. Barbour13.6 pts · 5.2 reb · 1.5 ast Score 74
G A. Zeigler TR12.3 pts · 4.9 reb · 3.3 ast Score 60
HARVSmall
G R. Hinton17 pts · 4.9 reb · 2.2 ast Score 88
G M. Williams TR21.6 pts · 4.3 reb · 4.5 ast Score 96
BCBig
G B. Eisendrath5.3 pts · 2.2 reb · 3.3 ast Score 16
F B. Benjamin TR14.2 pts · 10.4 reb · 1.2 ast Score 89
BCBig
G A. Hunt6.8 pts · 3.5 reb · 1.1 ast Score 42
F A. Bukumirovic TR13.7 pts · 7.7 reb · 1 ast Score 86
BCBig
G F. Mannino1.8 pts · 1.2 reb · 0.5 ast Score 36
Boston CollegeBetterHarvard
BC offense96th of 366 · -0.7
Even
HARV defense94th of 366 · -0.4
BC defense83rd of 366 · +0.1
BCBig
HARV offense216th of 366 · -6.6
Backcourt+4.7 · 3 players
BCBig
Backcourt-0.7 · 5 players
Frontcourt+5.8 · 2 players
No call
FrontcourtNo numbers yet
Bench-4.5 · 5 players
HARVSmall
Bench-2.0 · 5 players
Score, worst to bestBC betterHARV betterTR transfer · NEW no Division I numbers
Projected starters: college teams publish no depth chart, so these come from minutes played, and a freshman or a new starter can change them. The score is the share of ranked players at the position that player is ahead of. Numbers are this season's once a player has 30 minutes, 2025-26's before that. Bench is the next five by minutes. Tap a player for the full numbers.

Depth chart

Projected rotation by position, starters outlined
Boston College
Guards
E. Shelton37 min · TRA. Zeigler33 min · TRM. Williams32 min · TRJ. Frankel21 min · TRJ. O'Toole3 min · TRJ. Furphy3 min · TR
Forwards
B. Benjamin31 min · TRA. Bukumirovic30 min · TRC. Duggan28 min · TRL. Hunger19 min · TRA. Tounkara18 min · TRJ. BaileyNew
Harvard
Guards
T. Barbour34 minR. Hinton34 minB. Eisendrath29 minA. Hunt23 minF. Mannino9 minX. Nesbitt5 min
Forwards
R. Sullivan7 minK. Parrish6 minL. Ace-Nasteski6 minA. Dror2 minT. BattiesNewA. TouomouNew
Centers
J. AdigunNew
In order of minutes, from rosters as of today. ESPN lists players only as guards, forwards or centers, and no injury report exists for college basketball, so a player who is out may still show here.
Showing 2025-26 until both teams have played this season.

Matchup stats

2025-26 · rank among 365 teams
Scoring
Shooting
Possessions
Defense
BCHARV
Scoring
67.4 #326Points per game69.8 #290
1.00 #323Points per possession1.08 #184
67.5 #257Pace (possessions)64.7 #350
Shooting
47.0 #338Effective FG%53.2 #94
29.4 #3483-point %34.7 #135
42.4 #1303-point attempt rate40.2 #167
32.4 #251Free throw rate25.7 #359
Possessions
15.4 #102Turnover rate17.5 #236
28.3 #254Offensive rebound rate26.8 #302
11.3 #323Assists per game14.2 #129
Defense
70.7 #70Points allowed67.3 #22
1.04 #81Points allowed per possession1.04 #70
48.9 #62Opponent effective FG%50.4 #122
31.9 #59Opponent 3-point %32.6 #94
14.8 #303Turnovers forced17.1 #147
71.4 #87Defensive rebound rate71.8 #69
4.8 #341Steals per game7.1 #111
4.1 #62Blocks per game3.7 #109
From the box scores. A longer bar is a better national rank, on every row; the better team's bar is solid. A green rank is near the top of Division I, a red one near the bottom. Pace and 3-point rate are styles, so they have no better side.

Boston College

11-20 in 2025-26 overall · 4-14 in conference · Atlantic Coast Conference

Last five, 2025-26
  • Wvs Notre Dame77–69
  • L@ Virginia Tech63–72
  • L@ Miami54–76
  • Wvs Wake Forest68–67
  • L@ SMU70–94

A week or more of rest.

Harvard

16-12 in 2025-26 overall · 10-5 in conference · Ivy League

Last five, 2025-26
  • Lvs Penn60–62
  • Wvs Columbia81–71
  • L@ Penn61–64
  • W@ Princeton58–56
  • W@ Cornell73–54

A week or more of rest.