Harvard Crimson at Holy Cross Crusaders: Model Line and Edge

Fri, Nov 20, 7:00 PM ETHart Center Arena · at Holy Cross

LineNo line yet

Total—

Season records: Harvard and Holy Cross
HARV	This season	HC
0-0	Record	0-0
0-0	ATS	0-0
0-0	O/U	0-0

ATS = covered-didn’t-push · O/U = overs-unders

Model: projects HARV 73–64 · win probability HARV 79%

Pick this game

Your picksMy picks ›

Winner

Line

—

no line yet

Total

—

model 137.1

Model edge

—

No market line yet

Public

—

No split yet for this game

The model has not beaten the closing line: with an edge of 3 or more it went 409-367 in 2025-26. Model record

What could decide it: HARV has more of the edges

HARV 5, HC 1 · 2025-26 numbers until both teams have played three games

HARVBig

HC offense vs HARV defense

Offense 335th of 366 against a defense 94th, on the model’s ratings

HARVBig

Shooting

Effective FG%: HARV 53.2 and allows 50.4; HC 49.8 and allows 54.8

HARVSmall

Three-pointers

HARV hits 34.7% and allows 32.6%; HC hits 32.5% and allows 34.0%. Threes are 40.2% and 37.3% of their shots

Context

Schedule so far

HARV has played the 153rd-hardest schedule, HC the 225th. A record against a soft schedule means less

HARVSmall

Who is back

Minutes back from last season: HARV 81%, HC 51%. Transfers in: HARV 0, HC 0. Early in a season, turnover makes teams harder to price

HARVSmall

HARV offense vs HC defense

Offense 216th of 366 against a defense 269th, on the model’s ratings

HCSmall

Home court

HC at home. This season: HC 0-0 at home, HARV 0-0 away

Even

Free throws

Free throw rate: HARV 25.7, HC 31.5. Allowed: HARV 26.6, HC 27.6

Context

Tempo

About 65 possessions: HARV plays 64.7 a game (350th fastest), HC 65.8 (320th). Faster games mean more points

Even

Turnovers

Turnover rate: HARV 17.5%, HC 15.3%. Forced: HARV 17.1%, HC 14.1%

Even

Rebounding

Offensive rebound rate: HARV 26.8%, HC 21.9%. Defensive: HARV 71.8%, HC 73.0%

Sorted by how lopsided each matchup is, from national ranks. Reasons to look, not picks: the market already knows most of this.

Model vs market

	Market	Model	Model edge
Spread	—	HARV -9.1	—
Total	—	137.1	—
Projected score	—	HARV 73.1 · HC 64

1st-half model

1st-half slate ›

	Model	Actual
1H spread	HARV -5.5	—
1H total	64.2	—
1H projected score	HARV 34.9 · HC 29.3	—

The 1st-half model is fitted from the full-game model and past halves. ESPN has no 1st-half lines for college games, so there is no market to compare it with.

Showing 2025-26 until both teams have played this season.

ATS

2025-26 season

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
HARV WLLWL	14-14	50%	10-5	—
HC WLLWW	16-15	52%	6-6	—

Venue/role: HARV away; HC home. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

2025-26 season

	O-U	Over %	SU
HARV UUUOU	10-18	36%	16-12
HC UUUOU	15-16	48%	9-22

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Tap for the score and line.

Last 10 games

2025-26

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
HARV	7-3 70%	6-4 60%	2-8 20%
HC	3-7 30%	5-5 50%	5-5 50%

Wins-losses (pushes last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Next 3 games

With how the last meeting with each opponent went

Harvard

Date	Game	Last meeting
Nov 24	vs BU	L74–75LO
Nov 28	vs FOR	L60–68LU
Dec 2	@ UNH	W86–75LO

Holy Cross

Date	Game	Last meeting
Nov 25	@ DART	L64–89LO
Nov 29	vs UNH	W74–72LO
Dec 2	@ NE	W76–59WU

Last meeting: result, against the spread, over / under. Hover a result for its date.

Recent meetings

Since 2021-22

HARV 4–1 HCHARV leads · 5 games since 2021-22 · HARV 2-3 ATS

Date	Result	Line	Covered
Dec 20, 2025-26	HC 53 @ HARV 81	HARV -10.5	HARV W
Dec 4, 2024-25	HARV 67 @ HC 68	HC +2.5	HC W
Dec 21, 2023-24	HC 72 @ HARV 74	HARV -13.5	HC W
Nov 30, 2022-23	HARV 72 @ HC 38	HC +9.5	HARV W
Dec 19, 2021-22	HC 54 @ HARV 62	HARV -16.5	HC W

ATS History · 2025-26

WwinLloss·Wats winLats lossPpush·Owent over the totalUwent under the total

Harvard

28 games played

Straight up

16-12

57% wins

Against the spread

14-14

50% covers · avg +2.6 pts vs the line

Over / Under

10-18

36% overs · avg −4.3 pts vs the total

Straight up

16-1257%

W L W W L L L W L L W L W L W W W L W W W W L W W L W L

2 of last 4 wonno streak

Against the spread

14-1450%

L L W W W L L L L L W W W L W W L L W W W L W W L L W L

1 of last 4 coveredno streak

Over / Under

10-1836%

O U U U O O U U O O U U O U U O U O U U U U O U U U O U

1 of last 4 overno streak

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Nov 9	vsUNH	W 86-75	-15.5	L −4.5	147.5	O 161
Nov 11	vsNE	L 60-77	-5.5	L −22.5	144.5	U 137
Nov 15	@ARMY	W 75-52	-6.5	W +16.5	146.5	U 127
Nov 16	@MRST	W 56-54	+6.5	W +8.5	130.5	U 110
Nov 19	@PSU	L 80-84	+12.5	W +8.5	142.5	O 164
Nov 22	vsBU	L 74-75	-4.5	L −5.5	136.5	O 149
Nov 26	@BC	L 60-73	+7.5	L −5.5	138.5	U 133
Nov 29	vsBRY	W 56-53	-7.5	L −4.5	137.5	U 109
Dec 3	@MASS	L 71-78	+5.5	L −1.5	143.5	O 149
Dec 6	@FUR	L 69-79	+4.5	L −5.5	141.5	O 148
Dec 20	vsHC	W 81-53	-10.5	W +17.5	136.5	U 134
Dec 23	@SJU	L 59-85	+26.5	W +0.5	145.5	U 144
Dec 28	@COLG	W 78-69	+3.5	W +12.5	141.5	O 147
Jan 5	vsDART	L 68-76	-7.5	L −15.5	148.5	U 144
Jan 10	@COLU	W 79-54	+5.5	W +30.5	145.5	U 133
Jan 17	vsPRIN	W 87-80	-4.5	W +2.5	133.5	O 167
Jan 19	vsPENN	W 64-63	-5.5	L −4.5	150.5	U 127
Jan 24	vsCOR	L 79-86	-1.5	L −8.5	160.5	O 165
Jan 30	@BRWN	W 69-59	-1.5	W +8.5	132.5	U 128
Jan 31	@YALE	W 67-65	+11.5	W +13.5	141.5	U 132
Feb 7	@DART	W 71-58	-1.5	W +11.5	140.5	U 129
Feb 13	vsBRWN	W 56-53	-7.5	L −4.5	131.5	U 109
Feb 14	vsYALE	L 75-76	+4.5	W +3.5	138.5	O 151
Feb 21	@COR	W 73-54	+4.5	W +23.5	155.5	U 127
Feb 27	@PRIN	W 58-56	-3.5	L −1.5	130.5	U 114
Feb 28	@PENN	L 61-64	+1.5	L −1.5	138.5	U 125
Mar 6	vsCOLU	W 81-71	-4.5	W +5.5	136.5	O 152
Mar 14	vsPENN	L 60-62	-3.5	L −5.5	139.5	U 122

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

UNH

W 86-75

−4.5

L 60-77

−22.5

ARMY

W 75-52

+16.5

MRST

W 56-54

+8.5

PSU

L 80-84

+8.5

L 74-75

−5.5

L 60-73

−5.5

BRY

W 56-53

−4.5

MASS

L 71-78

−1.5

FUR

L 69-79

−5.5

W 81-53

+17.5

SJU

L 59-85

+0.5

COLG

W 78-69

+12.5

DART

L 68-76

−15.5

COLU

W 79-54

+30.5

PRIN

W 87-80

+2.5

PENN

W 64-63

−4.5

COR

L 79-86

−8.5

BRWN

W 69-59

+8.5

YALE

W 67-65

+13.5

DART

W 71-58

+11.5

BRWN

W 56-53

−4.5

YALE

L 75-76

+3.5

COR

W 73-54

+23.5

PRIN

W 58-56

−1.5

PENN

L 61-64

−1.5

COLU

W 81-71

+5.5

PENN

L 60-62

−5.5

covered 14didn’t cover 14avg +2.6 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

UNH

W 86-75

+13.5

L 60-77

−7.5

ARMY

W 75-52

−19.5

MRST

W 56-54

−20.5

PSU

L 80-84

+21.5

L 74-75

+12.5

L 60-73

−5.5

BRY

W 56-53

−28.5

MASS

L 71-78

+5.5

FUR

L 69-79

+6.5

W 81-53

−2.5

SJU

L 59-85

−1.5

COLG

W 78-69

+5.5

DART

L 68-76

−4.5

COLU

W 79-54

−12.5

PRIN

W 87-80

+33.5

PENN

W 64-63

−23.5

COR

L 79-86

+4.5

BRWN

W 69-59

−4.5

YALE

W 67-65

−9.5

DART

W 71-58

−11.5

BRWN

W 56-53

−22.5

YALE

L 75-76

+12.5

COR

W 73-54

−28.5

PRIN

W 58-56

−16.5

PENN

L 61-64

−13.5

COLU

W 81-71

+15.5

PENN

L 60-62

−17.5

over 10under 18avg −4.3 ptslonger = bigger margin

Holy Cross

31 games played

Straight up

9-22

29% wins

Against the spread

16-15

52% covers · avg +0.2 pts vs the line

Over / Under

15-16

48% overs · avg −0.4 pts vs the total

Straight up

9-2229%

L L L W L L L W W L L W L L W W L L L L L L W L L L W L L W L

1 of last 4 wonno streak

Against the spread

16-1552%

W L W W L L W W W L L W L L W W L L L W W L W W L L W L L W W

2 straight covers2 of last 4 covered

Over / Under

15-1648%

O U O U U U O U O O U U U U O O U O O O U U O O O O U U U O U

1 of last 4 overno streak

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Nov 3	@PROV	L 79-89	+23.5	W +13.5	152.5	O 168
Nov 8	@BYU	L 53-98	+38.5	L −6.5	165.5	U 151
Nov 10	@UTAH	L 69-87	+21.5	W +3.5	155.5	O 156
Nov 16	vsHAMP	W 67-61	+4.5	W +10.5	148.5	U 128
Nov 18	@BRWN	L 49-68	+2.5	L −16.5	141.5	U 117
Nov 21	@SHU	L 66-79	+7.5	L −5.5	152.5	U 145
Nov 24	vsSIE	L 69-73	+9.5	W +5.5	137.5	O 142
Dec 3	vsNE	W 76-59	+8.5	W +25.5	145.5	U 135
Dec 6	@FOR	W 70-69	+10.5	W +11.5	138.5	O 139
Dec 16	vsDART	L 64-89	+1.5	L −23.5	147.5	O 153
Dec 20	@HARV	L 53-81	+10.5	L −17.5	136.5	U 134
Dec 31	vsBUCK	W 65-58	+1.5	W +8.5	133.5	U 123
Jan 3	vsNAVY	L 58-65	+5.5	L −1.5	137.5	U 123
Jan 7	@LEH	L 58-66	+2.5	L −5.5	137.5	U 124
Jan 10	@AMER	W 84-73	+8.5	W +19.5	137.5	O 157
Jan 14	vsARMY	W 82-75	-4.5	W +2.5	142.5	O 157
Jan 17	@LAF	L 55-74	+2.5	L −16.5	138.5	U 129
Jan 21	@NAVY	L 68-85	+11.5	L −5.5	134.5	O 153
Jan 24	vsAMER	L 67-76	+4.5	L −4.5	139.5	O 143
Jan 28	@COLG	L 74-79	+10.5	W +5.5	144.5	O 153
Jan 31	@ARMY	L 68-69	+2.5	W +1.5	144.5	U 137
Feb 2	vsBU	L 64-72	+2.5	L −5.5	139.5	U 136
Feb 7	vsLEH	W 76-67	+1.5	W +10.5	137.5	O 143
Feb 11	vsCOLG	L 70-74	+8.5	W +4.5	142.5	O 144
Feb 15	@L-MD	L 73-83	+4.5	L −5.5	146.5	O 156
Feb 18	vsLAF	L 83-86	-1.5	L −4.5	139.5	O 169
Feb 22	@BUCK	W 72-63	+2.5	W +11.5	142.5	U 135
Feb 25	@BU	L 63-78	+8.5	L −6.5	141.5	U 141
Feb 28	vsL-MD	L 62-76	-1.5	L −15.5	151.5	U 138
Mar 3	@LAF	W 82-77	+4.5	W +9.5	141.5	O 159
Mar 5	@LEH	L 66-69	+5.5	W +2.5	142.5	U 135

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

PROV

L 79-89

+13.5

BYU

L 53-98

−6.5

UTAH

L 69-87

+3.5

HAMP

W 67-61

+10.5

BRWN

L 49-68

−16.5

SHU

L 66-79

−5.5

SIE

L 69-73

+5.5

W 76-59

+25.5

FOR

W 70-69

+11.5

DART

L 64-89

−23.5

HARV

L 53-81

−17.5

BUCK

W 65-58

+8.5

NAVY

L 58-65

−1.5

LEH

L 58-66

−5.5

AMER

W 84-73

+19.5

ARMY

W 82-75

+2.5

LAF

L 55-74

−16.5

NAVY

L 68-85

−5.5

AMER

L 67-76

−4.5

COLG

L 74-79

+5.5

ARMY

L 68-69

+1.5

L 64-72

−5.5

LEH

W 76-67

+10.5

COLG

L 70-74

+4.5

L-MD

L 73-83

−5.5

LAF

L 83-86

−4.5

BUCK

W 72-63

+11.5

L 63-78

−6.5

L-MD

L 62-76

−15.5

LAF

W 82-77

+9.5

LEH

L 66-69

+2.5

covered 16didn’t cover 15avg +0.2 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

PROV

L 79-89

+15.5

BYU

L 53-98

−14.5

UTAH

L 69-87

+0.5

HAMP

W 67-61

−20.5

BRWN

L 49-68

−24.5

SHU

L 66-79

−7.5

SIE

L 69-73

+4.5

W 76-59

−10.5

FOR

W 70-69

+0.5

DART

L 64-89

+5.5

HARV

L 53-81

−2.5

BUCK

W 65-58

−10.5

NAVY

L 58-65

−14.5

LEH

L 58-66

−13.5

AMER

W 84-73

+19.5

ARMY

W 82-75

+14.5

LAF

L 55-74

−9.5

NAVY

L 68-85

+18.5

AMER

L 67-76

+3.5

COLG

L 74-79

+8.5

ARMY

L 68-69

−7.5

L 64-72

−3.5

LEH

W 76-67

+5.5

COLG

L 70-74

+1.5

L-MD

L 73-83

+9.5

LAF

L 83-86

+29.5

BUCK

W 72-63

−7.5

L 63-78

−0.5

L-MD

L 62-76

−13.5

LAF

W 82-77

+17.5

LEH

L 66-69

−7.5

over 15under 16avg −0.4 ptslonger = bigger margin

Line = the team’s closing spread (negative = favored). ATS number = points beyond the line; total number = combined points.

Harvard has the better starters

Position by position: Harvard 4, Holy Cross 0, even 1

HarvardBetterHoly Cross

G T. Barbour13.6 pts · 5.2 reb · 1.5 ast Score 74

HARVBig

G J. St. Germain4.5 pts · 1.2 reb · 0.9 ast Score 22

G R. Hinton17 pts · 4.9 reb · 2.2 ast Score 88

HARVBig

F J. Nugent11.8 pts · 3.6 reb · 0.7 ast Score 53

G B. Eisendrath5.3 pts · 2.2 reb · 3.3 ast Score 16

HARVSmall

F A. Richard4.9 pts · 4 reb · 0.9 ast Score 1

G A. Hunt6.8 pts · 3.5 reb · 1.1 ast Score 42

HARVSmall

F D. Ryan4.7 pts · 2.1 reb · 0.7 ast Score 21

G F. Mannino1.8 pts · 1.2 reb · 0.5 ast Score 36

No call

F C. Hare2 pts · 1.5 reb · 0 ast Not ranked

HarvardBetterHoly Cross

HARV offense216th of 366 · -6.6

Even

HC defense269th of 366 · -6.8

HARV defense94th of 366 · -0.4

HARVBig

HC offense335th of 366 · -10.9

Backcourt-0.7 · 5 players

Even

Backcourt-1.3 · 1 player

FrontcourtNo numbers yet

No call

Frontcourt-6.1 · 4 players

Bench-2.0 · 5 players

HCSmall

Bench-0.7 · 3 players

Score, worst to bestHARV betterHC betterTR transfer · NEW no Division I numbers

Projected starters: college teams publish no depth chart, so these come from minutes played, and a freshman or a new starter can change them. The score is the share of ranked players at the position that player is ahead of. Numbers are this season's once a player has 30 minutes, 2025-26's before that. Bench is the next five by minutes. Tap a player for the full numbers.

Depth chart

Projected rotation by position, starters outlined

Harvard

Guards

T. Barbour34 minR. Hinton34 minB. Eisendrath29 minA. Hunt23 minF. Mannino9 minX. Nesbitt5 min

Forwards

R. Sullivan7 minK. Parrish6 minL. Ace-Nasteski6 minA. Dror2 minT. BattiesNewA. TouomouNew

Centers

J. AdigunNew

Holy Cross

Guards

J. St. Germain15 minA. Mejia1 minA. AlijosiusNewK. HansonNewT. WilsonNewJ. GermanyNew

Forwards

J. Nugent30 minA. Richard27 minD. Ryan13 minC. Hare7 minJ. Haigh6 minE. Clark1 min

Centers

K. MgbejioforNew

In order of minutes, from rosters as of today. ESPN lists players only as guards, forwards or centers, and no injury report exists for college basketball, so a player who is out may still show here.

Showing 2025-26 until both teams have played this season.

Matchup stats

2025-26 · rank among 365 teams

ChartTable

Scoring

Points per game

HARV69.8 #290

HC67.9 #314

Points per possession

HARV1.08 #184

HC1.03 #288

Pace (possessions)

HARV64.7 #350

HC65.8 #320

Shooting

Effective FG%

HARV53.2 #94

HC49.8 #248

3-point %

HARV34.7 #135

HC32.5 #252

3-point attempt rate

HARV40.2 #167

HC37.3 #225

Free throw rate

HARV25.7 #359

HC31.5 #268

Possessions

Turnover rate

HARV17.5 #236

HC15.3 #83

Offensive rebound rate

HARV26.8 #302

HC21.9 #356

Assists per game

HARV14.2 #129

HC10.7 #346

Defense

Points allowed

HARV67.3 #22

HC74.8 #182

Points allowed per possession

HARV1.04 #70

HC1.14 #305

Opponent effective FG%

HARV50.4 #122

HC54.8 #324

Opponent 3-point %

HARV32.6 #94

HC34.0 #181

Turnovers forced

HARV17.1 #147

HC14.1 #330

Defensive rebound rate

HARV71.8 #69

HC73.0 #37

Steals per game

HARV7.1 #111

HC5.5 #304

Blocks per game

HARV3.7 #109

HC1.7 #355

HARV		HC
Scoring
69.8 #290	Points per game	67.9 #314
1.08 #184	Points per possession	1.03 #288
64.7 #350	Pace (possessions)	65.8 #320
Shooting
53.2 #94	Effective FG%	49.8 #248
34.7 #135	3-point %	32.5 #252
40.2 #167	3-point attempt rate	37.3 #225
25.7 #359	Free throw rate	31.5 #268
Possessions
17.5 #236	Turnover rate	15.3 #83
26.8 #302	Offensive rebound rate	21.9 #356
14.2 #129	Assists per game	10.7 #346
Defense
67.3 #22	Points allowed	74.8 #182
1.04 #70	Points allowed per possession	1.14 #305
50.4 #122	Opponent effective FG%	54.8 #324
32.6 #94	Opponent 3-point %	34.0 #181
17.1 #147	Turnovers forced	14.1 #330
71.8 #69	Defensive rebound rate	73.0 #37
7.1 #111	Steals per game	5.5 #304
3.7 #109	Blocks per game	1.7 #355

From the box scores. A longer bar is a better national rank, on every row; the better team's bar is solid. A green rank is near the top of Division I, a red one near the bottom. Pace and 3-point rate are styles, so they have no better side.

Harvard

16-12 in 2025-26 overall · 10-5 in conference · Ivy League

Last five, 2025-26

Lvs Penn60–62
Wvs Columbia81–71
L@ Penn61–64
W@ Princeton58–56
W@ Cornell73–54

A week or more of rest.

Holy Cross

9-22 in 2025-26 overall · 6-14 in conference · Patriot League

Last five, 2025-26

L@ Lehigh66–69
W@ Lafayette82–77
Lvs Loyola MD62–76
L@ Boston U63–78
W@ Bucknell72–63

A week or more of rest.

Harvard Crimson at Holy Cross Crusaders

What could decide it: HARV has more of the edges

Market

Model vs market

1st-half model

ATS

Totals

Last 10 games

Next 3 games

Recent meetings

ATS History · 2025-26

Harvard

Holy Cross

Harvard has the better starters

Depth chart

Matchup stats

Harvard

Holy Cross