SE Louisiana Lions at Kennesaw State Owls: Model Line and Edge

Fri, Nov 20, 7:00 PM ETVyStar Arena · at Kennesaw St

LineNo line yet

Total—

Season records: SE Louisiana and Kennesaw St
SELA	This season	KENN
0-0	Record	0-0
0-0	ATS	0-0
0-0	O/U	0-0

ATS = covered-didn’t-push · O/U = overs-unders

Model: projects KENN 77–68 · win probability KENN 79%

Pick this game

Your picksMy picks ›

Winner

Line

—

no line yet

Total

—

model 144.8

Model edge

—

No market line yet

Public

—

No split yet for this game

The model has not beaten the closing line: with an edge of 3 or more it went 409-367 in 2025-26. Model record

What could decide it: KENN has more of the edges

SELA 0, KENN 7 · 2025-26 numbers until both teams have played three games

KENNBig

Shooting

Effective FG%: SELA 46.7 and allows 52.4; KENN 50.4 and allows 48.3

KENNBig

Three-pointers

SELA hits 28.4% and allows 36.0%; KENN hits 33.4% and allows 33.5%. Threes are 39.5% and 42.5% of their shots

Context

Tempo

About 69 possessions: SELA plays 65.9 a game (318th fastest), KENN 72.4 (27th). Faster games mean more points

KENNBig

SELA offense vs KENN defense

Offense 315th of 366 against a defense 193rd, on the model’s ratings

Context

Schedule so far

SELA has played the 276th-hardest schedule, KENN the 156th. A record against a soft schedule means less

KENNSmall

Rebounding

Offensive rebound rate: SELA 28.6%, KENN 35.2%. Defensive: SELA 68.6%, KENN 68.4%

KENNSmall

Home court

KENN at home. This season: KENN 0-0 at home, SELA 0-0 away

KENNSmall

Who is back

Minutes back from last season: SELA 4%, KENN 32%. Transfers in: SELA 10, KENN 5. Early in a season, turnover makes teams harder to price

KENNSmall

KENN offense vs SELA defense

Offense 126th of 366 against a defense 177th, on the model’s ratings

Even

Turnovers

Turnover rate: SELA 18.4%, KENN 16.8%. Forced: SELA 19.1%, KENN 16.0%

Even

Free throws

Free throw rate: SELA 40.3, KENN 45.1. Allowed: SELA 41.2, KENN 47.1

Sorted by how lopsided each matchup is, from national ranks. Reasons to look, not picks: the market already knows most of this.

Model vs market

	Market	Model	Model edge
Spread	—	KENN -9.4	—
Total	—	144.8	—
Projected score	—	SELA 67.7 · KENN 77.1

1st-half model

1st-half slate ›

	Model	Actual
1H spread	KENN -5.5	—
1H total	67.8	—
1H projected score	SELA 31.2 · KENN 36.6	—

The 1st-half model is fitted from the full-game model and past halves. ESPN has no 1st-half lines for college games, so there is no market to compare it with.

Showing 2025-26 until both teams have played this season.

ATS

2025-26 season

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
SELA LLLLW	14-16	47%	7-10	—
KENN LWWWW	16-16	50%	5-8	—

Venue/role: SELA away; KENN home. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

2025-26 season

	O-U	Over %	SU
SELA UOOUO	13-17	43%	8-22
KENN UOUUU	15-17	47%	18-14

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Tap for the score and line.

Last 10 games

2025-26

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
SELA	3-7 30%	3-7 30%	5-5 50%
KENN	7-3 70%	6-4 60%	4-6 40%

Wins-losses (pushes last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Next 3 games

With how the last meeting with each opponent went

SE Louisiana

Date	Game	Last meeting
Nov 24	vs UNCO	No recent meeting
Dec 1	@ GW	No recent meeting
Dec 5	vs UIW	W74–62WU

Kennesaw St

Date	Game	Last meeting
Nov 24	vs EMU	No recent meeting
Nov 30	vs FAMU	W92–72WU
Dec 5	@ APSU	L69–85LO

Last meeting: result, against the spread, over / under. Hover a result for its date.

Recent meetings

Since 2021-22

SELA 0–1 KENNKENN leads · 1 game since 2021-22 · SELA 1-0 ATS

Date	Result	Line	Covered
Nov 18, 2022-23	SELA 68 vs KENN 72	KENN -8	SELA W

ATS History · 2025-26

WwinLloss·Wats winLats lossPpush·Owent over the totalUwent under the total

SE Louisiana

30 games played

Straight up

8-22

27% wins

Against the spread

14-16

47% covers · avg −0.9 pts vs the line

Over / Under

13-17

43% overs · avg −1.3 pts vs the total

Straight up

8-2227%

L L L L L W W L W L L L L W L L L L W L L L W W L L L L L W

1 of last 4 wonno streak

Against the spread

14-1647%

L L W W L W W L W L W L L W W L L W W W L L W W L L L L L W

1 of last 4 coveredno streak

Over / Under

13-1743%

O U U U U O U O O O U O U U U O U U U O O U U U O U O O U O

3 of last 4 overno streak

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Nov 3	@MISS	L 58-88	+21.5	L −8.5	143.5	O 146
Nov 7	@UL	L 52-58	+3.5	L −2.5	135.5	U 110
Nov 10	@GT	L 60-70	+14.5	W +4.5	133.5	U 130
Nov 15	@MSST	L 68-75	+27.5	W +20.5	150.5	U 143
Nov 26	@UNCW	L 57-70	+11.5	L −1.5	137.5	U 127
Nov 28	vsGWEB	W 76-68	-6.5	W +1.5	141.5	O 144
Nov 29	vsNAVY	W 69-65	+3.5	W +7.5	136.5	U 134
Dec 7	vsNWST	L 68-76	-7.5	L −15.5	133.5	O 144
Dec 13	@HCU	W 74-71	+2.5	W +5.5	132.5	O 145
Dec 15	vsETAM	L 69-70	-4.5	L −5.5	137.5	O 139
Dec 19	@LSU	L 65-78	+24.5	W +11.5	144.5	U 143
Dec 30	@UIW	L 70-79	+6.5	L −2.5	135.5	O 149
Jan 3	vsSFA	L 63-73	+3.5	L −6.5	137.5	U 136
Jan 5	vsLAM	W 60-52	+1.5	W +9.5	135.5	U 112
Jan 10	@MCN	L 61-73	+16.5	W +4.5	138.5	U 134
Jan 12	vsNOLA	L 76-79	-2.5	L −5.5	142.5	O 155
Jan 17	@AMCC	L 56-68	+5.5	L −6.5	130.5	U 124
Jan 19	@RGV	L 65-68	+5.5	W +2.5	135.5	U 133
Jan 24	vsNICH	W 67-61	-2.5	W +3.5	141.5	U 128
Jan 27	vsMCN	L 66-76	+12.5	W +2.5	139.5	O 142
Jan 31	@SFA	L 58-85	+9.5	L −17.5	135.5	O 143
Feb 2	@LAM	L 54-73	+5.5	L −13.5	132.5	U 127
Feb 7	vsHCU	W 55-47	-4.5	W +3.5	133.5	U 102
Feb 9	vsUIW	W 74-62	-1.5	W +10.5	137.5	U 136
Feb 14	@NWST	L 66-69	+1.5	L −1.5	131.5	O 135
Feb 16	@ETAM	L 53-70	+2.5	L −14.5	136.5	U 123
Feb 21	vsRGV	L 75-96	+4.5	L −16.5	138.5	O 171
Feb 23	vsAMCC	L 68-73	+1.5	L −3.5	130.5	O 141
Feb 28	@NICH	L 60-68	+4.5	L −3.5	139.5	U 128
Mar 2	@NOLA	W 82-78	+6.5	W +10.5	143.5	O 160

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

MISS

L 58-88

−8.5

L 52-58

−2.5

L 60-70

+4.5

MSST

L 68-75

+20.5

UNCW

L 57-70

−1.5

GWEB

W 76-68

+1.5

NAVY

W 69-65

+7.5

NWST

L 68-76

−15.5

HCU

W 74-71

+5.5

ETAM

L 69-70

−5.5

LSU

L 65-78

+11.5

UIW

L 70-79

−2.5

SFA

L 63-73

−6.5

LAM

W 60-52

+9.5

MCN

L 61-73

+4.5

NOLA

L 76-79

−5.5

AMCC

L 56-68

−6.5

RGV

L 65-68

+2.5

NICH

W 67-61

+3.5

MCN

L 66-76

+2.5

SFA

L 58-85

−17.5

LAM

L 54-73

−13.5

HCU

W 55-47

+3.5

UIW

W 74-62

+10.5

NWST

L 66-69

−1.5

ETAM

L 53-70

−14.5

RGV

L 75-96

−16.5

AMCC

L 68-73

−3.5

NICH

L 60-68

−3.5

NOLA

W 82-78

+10.5

covered 14didn’t cover 16avg −0.9 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

MISS

L 58-88

+2.5

L 52-58

−25.5

L 60-70

−3.5

MSST

L 68-75

−7.5

UNCW

L 57-70

−10.5

GWEB

W 76-68

+2.5

NAVY

W 69-65

−2.5

NWST

L 68-76

+10.5

HCU

W 74-71

+12.5

ETAM

L 69-70

+1.5

LSU

L 65-78

−1.5

UIW

L 70-79

+13.5

SFA

L 63-73

−1.5

LAM

W 60-52

−23.5

MCN

L 61-73

−4.5

NOLA

L 76-79

+12.5

AMCC

L 56-68

−6.5

RGV

L 65-68

−2.5

NICH

W 67-61

−13.5

MCN

L 66-76

+2.5

SFA

L 58-85

+7.5

LAM

L 54-73

−5.5

HCU

W 55-47

−31.5

UIW

W 74-62

−1.5

NWST

L 66-69

+3.5

ETAM

L 53-70

−13.5

RGV

L 75-96

+32.5

AMCC

L 68-73

+10.5

NICH

L 60-68

−11.5

NOLA

W 82-78

+16.5

over 13under 17avg −1.3 ptslonger = bigger margin

Kennesaw St

32 games played

Straight up

18-14

56% wins

Against the spread

16-16

50% covers · avg +0.7 pts vs the line

Over / Under

15-17

47% overs · avg +0.5 pts vs the total

Straight up

18-1456%

W L W L W W W L L L L W W W W L L W W L L L W W W W L L W W W L

3 of last 4 wonno streak

Against the spread

16-1650%

W L W L W L W W W L L W W L W L L L W L L L W L W L L L W W W W

4 straight covers4 of last 4 covered

Over / Under

15-1747%

U O O O O O O U U U U O O U U O O U U U O U O U U O O U O U U U

3 straight unders1 of last 4 over

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Nov 8	@FAMU	W 92-72	-11.5	W +8.5	166.5	U 164
Nov 16	vsUSF	L 89-108	+7.5	L −11.5	177.5	O 197
Nov 24	vsRICE	W 89-84	-4.5	W +0.5	159.5	O 173
Nov 25	vsORU	L 83-91	-8.5	L −16.5	166.5	O 174
Nov 26	@FGCU	W 102-100	+1.5	W +3.5	160.5	O 202
Dec 2	vsJKST	W 88-73	-15.5	L −0.5	157.5	O 161
Dec 6	vsGAST	W 92-69	-14.5	W +8.5	158.5	O 161
Dec 17	@MTSU	L 67-68	+3.5	W +2.5	160.5	U 135
Dec 21	vsALA	L 81-92	+20.5	W +9.5	182.5	U 173
Jan 2	@LIB	L 73-81	+7.5	L −0.5	158.5	U 154
Jan 4	@DEL	L 52-67	-8.5	L −23.5	148.5	U 119
Jan 7	vsMOST	W 90-80	-6.5	W +3.5	152.5	O 170
Jan 10	vsJXST	W 88-82	-5.5	W +0.5	149.5	O 170
Jan 14	vsFIU	W 89-86	-5.5	L −2.5	175.5	U 175
Jan 17	@WKU	W 81-65	+7.5	W +23.5	165.5	U 146
Jan 21	@SHSU	L 87-93	+5.5	L −0.5	167.5	O 180
Jan 23	@LT	L 76-82	-1.5	L −7.5	144.5	O 158
Jan 28	vsWKU	W 72-69	-4.5	L −1.5	160.5	U 141
Jan 31	vsNMSU	W 76-53	-3.5	W +19.5	159.5	U 129
Feb 7	@JXST	L 58-77	-1.5	L −20.5	149.5	U 135
Feb 12	vsMTSU	L 87-90	-3.5	L −6.5	148.5	O 177
Feb 14	vsSHSU	L 79-83	-1.5	L −5.5	162.5	U 162
Feb 18	@MOST	W 91-87	+1.5	W +5.5	152.5	O 178
Feb 21	vsLT	W 58-55	-5.5	L −2.5	147.5	U 113
Feb 26	vsLIB	W 74-65	+1.5	W +10.5	152.5	U 139
Feb 28	vsDEL	W 90-82	-11.5	L −3.5	143.5	O 172
Mar 5	@UTEP	L 71-78	-3.5	L −10.5	148.5	O 149
Mar 7	@NMSU	L 76-79	+1.5	L −1.5	157.5	U 155
Mar 12	vsWKU	W 96-87	+1.5	W +10.5	159.5	O 183
Mar 13	vsSHSU	W 79-73	+2.5	W +8.5	159.5	U 152
Mar 14	vsLT	W 71-60	-1.5	W +9.5	142.5	U 131
Mar 19	vsGONZ	L 64-73	+20.5	W +11.5	152.5	U 137

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

FAMU

W 92-72

+8.5

USF

L 89-108

−11.5

RICE

W 89-84

+0.5

ORU

L 83-91

−16.5

FGCU

W 102-100

+3.5

JKST

W 88-73

−0.5

GAST

W 92-69

+8.5

MTSU

L 67-68

+2.5

ALA

L 81-92

+9.5

LIB

L 73-81

−0.5

DEL

L 52-67

−23.5

MOST

W 90-80

+3.5

JXST

W 88-82

+0.5

FIU

W 89-86

−2.5

WKU

W 81-65

+23.5

SHSU

L 87-93

−0.5

L 76-82

−7.5

WKU

W 72-69

−1.5

NMSU

W 76-53

+19.5

JXST

L 58-77

−20.5

MTSU

L 87-90

−6.5

SHSU

L 79-83

−5.5

MOST

W 91-87

+5.5

W 58-55

−2.5

LIB

W 74-65

+10.5

DEL

W 90-82

−3.5

UTEP

L 71-78

−10.5

NMSU

L 76-79

−1.5

WKU

W 96-87

+10.5

SHSU

W 79-73

+8.5

W 71-60

+9.5

GONZ

L 64-73

+11.5

covered 16didn’t cover 16avg +0.7 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

FAMU

W 92-72

−2.5

USF

L 89-108

+19.5

RICE

W 89-84

+13.5

ORU

L 83-91

+7.5

FGCU

W 102-100

+41.5

JKST

W 88-73

+3.5

GAST

W 92-69

+2.5

MTSU

L 67-68

−25.5

ALA

L 81-92

−9.5

LIB

L 73-81

−4.5

DEL

L 52-67

−29.5

MOST

W 90-80

+17.5

JXST

W 88-82

+20.5

FIU

W 89-86

−0.5

WKU

W 81-65

−19.5

SHSU

L 87-93

+12.5

L 76-82

+13.5

WKU

W 72-69

−19.5

NMSU

W 76-53

−30.5

JXST

L 58-77

−14.5

MTSU

L 87-90

+28.5

SHSU

L 79-83

−0.5

MOST

W 91-87

+25.5

W 58-55

−34.5

LIB

W 74-65

−13.5

DEL

W 90-82

+28.5

UTEP

L 71-78

+0.5

NMSU

L 76-79

−2.5

WKU

W 96-87

+23.5

SHSU

W 79-73

−7.5

W 71-60

−11.5

GONZ

L 64-73

−15.5

over 15under 17avg +0.5 ptslonger = bigger margin

Line = the team’s closing spread (negative = favored). ATS number = points beyond the line; total number = combined points.

Kennesaw St has the better starters

Position by position: SE Louisiana 0, Kennesaw St 1, even 4

SE LouisianaBetterKennesaw St

G Q. Allen TR9.5 pts · 4.2 reb · 0.7 ast Score 62

Even

G J. Hill TR10.1 pts · 3.8 reb · 1.6 ast Score 53

G J. Furman TR8.6 pts · 3.2 reb · 1.3 ast Score 13

Even

G K. Rickard5.5 pts · 2.5 reb · 1.9 ast Score 21

G T. Bailey TR6.5 pts · 2.2 reb · 0.8 ast Score 12

KENNSmall

F T. Simpson8 pts · 4.7 reb · 0.6 ast Score 38

G T. Rolison TR5.5 pts · 1.7 reb · 2.6 ast Score 58

Even

F A. Thomas TR8.3 pts · 6.9 reb · 0.6 ast Score 61

F A. Sims TR7.2 pts · 4.9 reb · 2.1 ast Score 28

Even

F A. Enoh TR4.9 pts · 5.1 reb · 0.8 ast Score 19

SE LouisianaBetterKennesaw St

SELA offense315th of 366 · -10.2

KENNSmall

KENN defense193rd of 366 · -4.6

SELA defense177th of 366 · -4.0

Even

KENN offense126th of 366 · -3.4

Backcourt-5.3 · 4 players

KENNBig

Backcourt-2.3 · 2 players

Frontcourt-1.9 · 1 player

Even

Frontcourt-2.5 · 3 players

Bench-3.3 · 5 players

KENNSmall

Bench-0.4 · 4 players

Score, worst to bestSELA betterKENN betterTR transfer · NEW no Division I numbers

Projected starters: college teams publish no depth chart, so these come from minutes played, and a freshman or a new starter can change them. The score is the share of ranked players at the position that player is ahead of. Numbers are this season's once a player has 30 minutes, 2025-26's before that. Bench is the next five by minutes. Tap a player for the full numbers.

Depth chart

Projected rotation by position, starters outlined

SE Louisiana

Guards

Q. Allen25 min · TRJ. Furman24 min · TRT. Bailey23 min · TRT. Rolison17 min · TRG. Sanford12 min · TRJ. Nyam1 min · TR

Forwards

A. Sims32 min · TRJ. Massaquoi17 min · TRY. Ndjonga10 min · TRG. Shoemaker7 min

Centers

D. Akoue12 min · TR

Kennesaw St

Guards

J. Hill31 min · TRK. Rickard20 minC. Beaumont9 min · TRK. Parker6 min · TRB. TousignautNewA. DanielsNew

Forwards

T. Simpson26 minA. Thomas25 min · TRA. Enoh23 min · TRA. Taylor17 minD. Onyirimba2 minK. BerryNew

In order of minutes, from rosters as of today. ESPN lists players only as guards, forwards or centers, and no injury report exists for college basketball, so a player who is out may still show here.

Showing 2025-26 until both teams have played this season.

Matchup stats

2025-26 · rank among 365 teams

ChartTable

Scoring

Points per game

SELA64.8 #350

KENN80.0 #66

Points per possession

SELA0.98 #339

KENN1.11 #122

Pace (possessions)

SELA65.9 #318

KENN72.4 #27

Shooting

Effective FG%

SELA46.7 #343

KENN50.4 #224

3-point %

SELA28.4 #362

KENN33.4 #203

3-point attempt rate

SELA39.5 #183

KENN42.5 #127

Free throw rate

SELA40.3 #56

KENN45.1 #5

Possessions

Turnover rate

SELA18.4 #291

KENN16.8 #183

Offensive rebound rate

SELA28.6 #245

KENN35.2 #44

Assists per game

SELA11.4 #319

KENN13.3 #189

Defense

Points allowed

SELA71.3 #86

KENN78.3 #272

Points allowed per possession

SELA1.08 #172

KENN1.08 #159

Opponent effective FG%

SELA52.4 #233

KENN48.3 #43

Opponent 3-point %

SELA36.0 #301

KENN33.5 #154

Turnovers forced

SELA19.1 #47

KENN16.0 #223

Defensive rebound rate

SELA68.6 #225

KENN68.4 #234

Steals per game

SELA6.8 #145

KENN6.8 #146

Blocks per game

SELA2.7 #272

KENN5.3 #10

SELA		KENN
Scoring
64.8 #350	Points per game	80.0 #66
0.98 #339	Points per possession	1.11 #122
65.9 #318	Pace (possessions)	72.4 #27
Shooting
46.7 #343	Effective FG%	50.4 #224
28.4 #362	3-point %	33.4 #203
39.5 #183	3-point attempt rate	42.5 #127
40.3 #56	Free throw rate	45.1 #5
Possessions
18.4 #291	Turnover rate	16.8 #183
28.6 #245	Offensive rebound rate	35.2 #44
11.4 #319	Assists per game	13.3 #189
Defense
71.3 #86	Points allowed	78.3 #272
1.08 #172	Points allowed per possession	1.08 #159
52.4 #233	Opponent effective FG%	48.3 #43
36.0 #301	Opponent 3-point %	33.5 #154
19.1 #47	Turnovers forced	16.0 #223
68.6 #225	Defensive rebound rate	68.4 #234
6.8 #145	Steals per game	6.8 #146
2.7 #272	Blocks per game	5.3 #10

From the box scores. A longer bar is a better national rank, on every row; the better team's bar is solid. A green rank is near the top of Division I, a red one near the bottom. Pace and 3-point rate are styles, so they have no better side.

SE Louisiana

8-22 in 2025-26 overall · 6-16 in conference · Southland Conference

Last five, 2025-26

W@ LSU N Orleans82–78
L@ Nicholls60–68
Lvs Texas A&M-CC68–73
Lvs UT Rio Grande75–96
L@ East Texas A&M53–70

A week or more of rest.

Kennesaw St

18-14 in 2025-26 overall · 13-10 in conference · Conference USA

Last five, 2025-26

Lvs Gonzaga64–73
Wvs Louisiana Tech71–60
Wvs Sam Houston79–73
Wvs Western KY96–87
L@ New Mexico St76–79

A week or more of rest.

SE Louisiana Lions at Kennesaw State Owls

What could decide it: KENN has more of the edges

Market

Model vs market

1st-half model

ATS

Totals

Last 10 games

Next 3 games

Recent meetings

ATS History · 2025-26

SE Louisiana

Kennesaw St

Kennesaw St has the better starters

Depth chart

Matchup stats

SE Louisiana

Kennesaw St