Western Michigan Broncos at Mount St. Mary's Mountaineers: Model Line and Edge

Fri, Nov 20, 7:00 PM ETKnott Arena · at Mount St Marys

LineNo line yet

Total—

Season records: W Michigan and Mount St Marys
WMU	This season	MSM
0-0	Record	0-0
0-0	ATS	0-0
0-0	O/U	0-0

ATS = covered-didn’t-push · O/U = overs-unders

Model: projects WMU 75–72 · win probability WMU 60%

Pick this game

Your picksMy picks ›

Winner

Line

—

no line yet

Total

—

model 147.3

Model edge

—

No market line yet

Public

—

No split yet for this game

The model has not beaten the closing line: with an edge of 3 or more it went 409-367 in 2025-26. Model record

What could decide it

WMU 3, MSM 3 · 2025-26 numbers until both teams have played three games

MSMBig

Shooting

Effective FG%: WMU 49.9 and allows 54.4; MSM 50.6 and allows 47.2

Context

Schedule so far

WMU has played the 175th-hardest schedule, MSM the 291st. A record against a soft schedule means less

MSMSmall

Who is back

Minutes back from last season: WMU 0%, MSM 42%. Transfers in: WMU 9, MSM 3. Early in a season, turnover makes teams harder to price

WMUSmall

MSM offense vs WMU defense

Offense 319th of 366 against a defense 253rd, on the model’s ratings

WMUSmall

WMU offense vs MSM defense

Offense 137th of 366 against a defense 199th, on the model’s ratings

MSMSmall

Home court

MSM at home. This season: MSM 0-0 at home, WMU 0-0 away

WMUSmall

Turnovers

Turnover rate: WMU 16.8%, MSM 22.4%. Forced: WMU 13.4%, MSM 15.3%

Even

Three-pointers

WMU hits 35.3% and allows 36.1%; MSM hits 32.7% and allows 32.3%. Threes are 36.1% and 42.6% of their shots

Context

Tempo

About 69 possessions: WMU plays 69.3 a game (160th fastest), MSM 68.0 (231st). Faster games mean more points

Even

Rebounding

Offensive rebound rate: WMU 30.5%, MSM 32.3%. Defensive: WMU 70.9%, MSM 70.9%

Even

Free throws

Free throw rate: WMU 32.8, MSM 33.3. Allowed: WMU 37.5, MSM 37.3

Sorted by how lopsided each matchup is, from national ranks. Reasons to look, not picks: the market already knows most of this.

Model vs market

	Market	Model	Model edge
Spread	—	WMU -3.0	—
Total	—	147.3	—
Projected score	—	WMU 75.1 · MSM 72.1

1st-half model

1st-half slate ›

	Model	Actual
1H spread	WMU -1.9	—
1H total	68.9	—
1H projected score	WMU 35.4 · MSM 33.5	—

The 1st-half model is fitted from the full-game model and past halves. ESPN has no 1st-half lines for college games, so there is no market to compare it with.

Showing 2025-26 until both teams have played this season.

ATS

2025-26 season

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
WMU LWWLW	16-13	55%	8-8	—
MSM WWLWL	18-13	58%	7-5	—

Venue/role: WMU away; MSM home. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

2025-26 season

	O-U	Over %	SU
WMU OOUOO	18-11	62%	9-20
MSM OUUUU	10-21	32%	14-17

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Tap for the score and line.

Last 10 games

2025-26

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
WMU	2-8 20%	4-6 40%	7-3 70%
MSM	6-4 60%	6-4 60%	3-7 30%

Wins-losses (pushes last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Next 3 games

With how the last meeting with each opponent went

W Michigan

Date	Game	Last meeting
Dec 2	vs BUF	L71–88LO
Dec 5	@ BGSU	W88–79WO
Dec 9	@ MASS	L82–85WO

Mount St Marys

Date	Game	Last meeting
Nov 24	@ MORG	W74–60WO
Nov 28	vs DREX	L67–75LO
Dec 4	@ NIA	W76–63WO

Last meeting: result, against the spread, over / under. Hover a result for its date.

Recent meetings

Since 2021-22

WMU 1–0 MSMWMU leads · 1 game since 2021-22 · WMU 1-0 ATS

Date	Result	Line	Covered
Nov 23, 2025-26	MSM 60 @ WMU 83	WMU -1.5	WMU W

ATS History · 2025-26

WwinLloss·Wats winLats lossPpush·Owent over the totalUwent under the total

W Michigan

29 games played

Straight up

9-20

31% wins

Against the spread

16-13

55% covers · avg +1.1 pts vs the line

Over / Under

18-11

62% overs · avg +1.5 pts vs the total

Straight up

9-2031%

W L W L L W L W W L L L L W L L L W L L L L W L L W L L L

3 straight losses1 of last 4 won

Against the spread

16-1355%

W W W L L W L W W L L W W W W W L W L L L L W L L W W L W

3 of last 4 coveredno streak

Over / Under

18-1162%

O O U U U U U O O O O O O U O O U U O O U O U O O O U O O

2 straight overs3 of last 4 over

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Nov 3	vsCCU	W 76-71	-2.5	W +2.5	146.5	O 147
Nov 9	@CAM	L 82-91	+9.5	W +0.5	152.5	O 173
Nov 12	vsPFW	W 83-71	+3.5	W +15.5	161.5	U 154
Nov 16	@SDAK	L 78-83	+3.5	L −1.5	172.5	U 161
Nov 20	@OSU	L 58-91	+26.5	L −6.5	159.5	U 149
Nov 23	vsMSM	W 83-60	-1.5	W +21.5	150.5	U 143
Nov 29	@VAL	L 55-84	+4.5	L −24.5	146.5	U 139
Dec 3	vsUSI	W 88-74	-5.5	W +8.5	150.5	O 162
Dec 6	@SIUE	W 83-73	+5.5	W +15.5	139.5	O 156
Dec 14	@IOWA	L 51-91	+25.5	L −14.5	137.5	O 142
Dec 20	vsBUF	L 71-88	+2.5	L −14.5	150.5	O 159
Dec 30	@TOL	L 79-84	+10.5	W +5.5	160.5	O 163
Jan 6	@M-OH	L 76-87	+14.5	W +3.5	160.5	O 163
Jan 10	vsEMU	W 79-62	+1.5	W +18.5	145.5	U 141
Jan 13	vsMASS	L 82-85	+5.5	W +2.5	157.5	O 167
Jan 17	@AKR	L 89-104	+21.5	W +6.5	163.5	O 193
Jan 20	vsBGSU	L 54-72	+6.5	L −11.5	152.5	U 126
Jan 24	vsCMU	W 77-65	-5.5	W +6.5	148.5	U 142
Jan 27	@NIU	L 65-85	+1.5	L −18.5	146.5	O 150
Feb 3	@OHIO	L 71-91	+10.5	L −9.5	155.5	O 162
Feb 7	@TXST	L 61-77	+6.5	L −9.5	146.5	U 138
Feb 11	vsTOL	L 79-90	+6.5	L −4.5	154.5	O 169
Feb 14	@EMU	W 76-62	+6.5	W +20.5	143.5	U 138
Feb 17	vsAKR	L 73-90	+14.5	L −2.5	160.5	O 163
Feb 21	@CMU	L 70-83	+3.5	L −9.5	150.5	O 153
Feb 24	@BGSU	W 88-79	+11.5	W +20.5	149.5	O 167
Feb 27	vsM-OH	L 67-69	+12.5	W +10.5	161.5	U 136
Mar 3	vsBALL	L 71-74	-1.5	L −4.5	138.5	O 145
Mar 6	@KENT	L 78-86	+13.5	W +5.5	157.5	O 164

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

CCU

W 76-71

+2.5

CAM

L 82-91

+0.5

PFW

W 83-71

+15.5

SDAK

L 78-83

−1.5

OSU

L 58-91

−6.5

MSM

W 83-60

+21.5

VAL

L 55-84

−24.5

USI

W 88-74

+8.5

SIUE

W 83-73

+15.5

IOWA

L 51-91

−14.5

BUF

L 71-88

−14.5

TOL

L 79-84

+5.5

M-OH

L 76-87

+3.5

EMU

W 79-62

+18.5

MASS

L 82-85

+2.5

AKR

L 89-104

+6.5

BGSU

L 54-72

−11.5

CMU

W 77-65

+6.5

NIU

L 65-85

−18.5

OHIO

L 71-91

−9.5

TXST

L 61-77

−9.5

TOL

L 79-90

−4.5

EMU

W 76-62

+20.5

AKR

L 73-90

−2.5

CMU

L 70-83

−9.5

BGSU

W 88-79

+20.5

M-OH

L 67-69

+10.5

BALL

L 71-74

−4.5

KENT

L 78-86

+5.5

covered 16didn’t cover 13avg +1.1 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

CCU

W 76-71

+0.5

CAM

L 82-91

+20.5

PFW

W 83-71

−7.5

SDAK

L 78-83

−11.5

OSU

L 58-91

−10.5

MSM

W 83-60

−7.5

VAL

L 55-84

−7.5

USI

W 88-74

+11.5

SIUE

W 83-73

+16.5

IOWA

L 51-91

+4.5

BUF

L 71-88

+8.5

TOL

L 79-84

+2.5

M-OH

L 76-87

+2.5

EMU

W 79-62

−4.5

MASS

L 82-85

+9.5

AKR

L 89-104

+29.5

BGSU

L 54-72

−26.5

CMU

W 77-65

−6.5

NIU

L 65-85

+3.5

OHIO

L 71-91

+6.5

TXST

L 61-77

−8.5

TOL

L 79-90

+14.5

EMU

W 76-62

−5.5

AKR

L 73-90

+2.5

CMU

L 70-83

+2.5

BGSU

W 88-79

+17.5

M-OH

L 67-69

−25.5

BALL

L 71-74

+6.5

KENT

L 78-86

+6.5

over 18under 11avg +1.5 ptslonger = bigger margin

Mount St Marys

31 games played

Straight up

14-17

45% wins

Against the spread

18-13

58% covers · avg −0 pts vs the line

Over / Under

10-21

32% overs · avg −3.9 pts vs the total

Straight up

14-1745%

L L W L L L L W L L W L W L L W L W W L W L W L W W W W L W L

2 of last 4 wonno streak

Against the spread

18-1358%

W L W W W L L W L W W L W L L W L W W L W L W L W W W W L W L

2 of last 4 coveredno streak

Over / Under

10-2132%

U U U U O U O O O U O O U U U U U O U U U U U O O U O U U U U

4 straight unders0 of last 4 over

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Nov 4	@WVU	L 54-70	+19.5	W +3.5	136.5	U 124
Nov 7	vsBUCK	L 62-73	-1.5	L −12.5	143.5	U 135
Nov 11	@SFPA	W 74-66	-6.5	W +1.5	149.5	U 140
Nov 16	@CIN	L 55-72	+25.5	W +8.5	145.5	U 127
Nov 19	@MD	L 90-95	+17.5	W +12.5	145.5	O 185
Nov 23	@WMU	L 60-83	+1.5	L −21.5	150.5	U 143
Nov 25	@OSU	L 60-113	+30.5	L −22.5	151.5	O 173
Nov 29	vsHOW	W 79-75	-2.5	W +1.5	146.5	O 154
Dec 3	vsSHU	L 80-87	+1.5	L −5.5	152.5	O 167
Dec 5	@MRST	L 56-64	+8.5	W +0.5	136.5	U 120
Dec 13	@L-MD	W 81-73	-2.5	W +5.5	151.5	O 154
Dec 19	@DREX	L 67-75	+4.5	L −3.5	137.5	O 142
Dec 29	vsIONA	W 66-59	+2.5	W +9.5	153.5	U 125
Jan 2	@MRMK	L 65-75	+3.5	L −6.5	141.5	U 140
Jan 4	@QUIN	L 69-80	+7.5	L −3.5	150.5	U 149
Jan 9	vsSPU	W 70-65	+1.5	W +6.5	141.5	U 135
Jan 11	vsSIE	L 50-67	+2.5	L −14.5	139.5	U 117
Jan 17	@CAN	W 78-68	-3.5	W +6.5	135.5	O 146
Jan 19	@NIA	W 68-58	-3.5	W +6.5	131.5	U 126
Jan 22	vsQUIN	L 62-77	+4.5	L −10.5	148.5	U 139
Jan 24	vsRID	W 71-61	-9.5	W +0.5	139.5	U 132
Jan 30	@SPU	L 58-66	+5.5	L −2.5	138.5	U 124
Feb 1	vsMAN	W 72-65	-6.5	W +0.5	147.5	U 137
Feb 5	vsMRMK	L 70-87	+2.5	L −14.5	134.5	O 157
Feb 7	@IONA	W 83-76	+3.5	W +10.5	141.5	O 159
Feb 13	@RID	W 65-55	-5.5	W +4.5	137.5	U 120
Feb 20	vsNIA	W 76-63	-7.5	W +5.5	130.5	O 139
Feb 22	vsCAN	W 68-47	-7.5	W +13.5	137.5	U 115
Feb 27	@SHU	L 69-77	+2.5	L −5.5	150.5	U 146
Mar 1	@FAIR	W 69-47	+4.5	W +26.5	145.5	U 116
Mar 7	vsSIE	L 58-63	+2.5	L −2.5	135.5	U 121

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

WVU

L 54-70

+3.5

BUCK

L 62-73

−12.5

SFPA

W 74-66

+1.5

CIN

L 55-72

+8.5

L 90-95

+12.5

WMU

L 60-83

−21.5

OSU

L 60-113

−22.5

HOW

W 79-75

+1.5

SHU

L 80-87

−5.5

MRST

L 56-64

+0.5

L-MD

W 81-73

+5.5

DREX

L 67-75

−3.5

IONA

W 66-59

+9.5

MRMK

L 65-75

−6.5

QUIN

L 69-80

−3.5

SPU

W 70-65

+6.5

SIE

L 50-67

−14.5

CAN

W 78-68

+6.5

NIA

W 68-58

+6.5

QUIN

L 62-77

−10.5

RID

W 71-61

+0.5

SPU

L 58-66

−2.5

MAN

W 72-65

+0.5

MRMK

L 70-87

−14.5

IONA

W 83-76

+10.5

RID

W 65-55

+4.5

NIA

W 76-63

+5.5

CAN

W 68-47

+13.5

SHU

L 69-77

−5.5

FAIR

W 69-47

+26.5

SIE

L 58-63

−2.5

covered 18didn’t cover 13avg −0 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

WVU

L 54-70

−12.5

BUCK

L 62-73

−8.5

SFPA

W 74-66

−9.5

CIN

L 55-72

−18.5

L 90-95

+39.5

WMU

L 60-83

−7.5

OSU

L 60-113

+21.5

HOW

W 79-75

+7.5

SHU

L 80-87

+14.5

MRST

L 56-64

−16.5

L-MD

W 81-73

+2.5

DREX

L 67-75

+4.5

IONA

W 66-59

−28.5

MRMK

L 65-75

−1.5

QUIN

L 69-80

−1.5

SPU

W 70-65

−6.5

SIE

L 50-67

−22.5

CAN

W 78-68

+10.5

NIA

W 68-58

−5.5

QUIN

L 62-77

−9.5

RID

W 71-61

−7.5

SPU

L 58-66

−14.5

MAN

W 72-65

−10.5

MRMK

L 70-87

+22.5

IONA

W 83-76

+17.5

RID

W 65-55

−17.5

NIA

W 76-63

+8.5

CAN

W 68-47

−22.5

SHU

L 69-77

−4.5

FAIR

W 69-47

−29.5

SIE

L 58-63

−14.5

over 10under 21avg −3.9 ptslonger = bigger margin

Line = the team’s closing spread (negative = favored). ATS number = points beyond the line; total number = combined points.

W Michigan has the better starters

Position by position: W Michigan 2, Mount St Marys 0, even 3

W MichiganBetterMount St Marys

G T. Hayhurst TR10 pts · 3.3 reb · 1.4 ast Score 41

Even

G A. Khadre Kebe7.5 pts · 5.8 reb · 0.9 ast Score 55

G M. Bendinger TR14.4 pts · 3.6 reb · 1.1 ast Score 37

Even

G R. Thompson TR10.4 pts · 1.6 reb · 1.9 ast Score 49

G R. Lee TR15.9 pts · 3.2 reb · 1.9 ast Score 79

WMUBig

G A. Arrington5.5 pts · 2.1 reb · 1 ast Score 2

G J. Washington TR10 pts · 2.3 reb · 4 ast Score 73

WMUBig

G M. So3.9 pts · 2.3 reb · 2.1 ast Score 13

F I. Finlinson TR9.4 pts · 3.8 reb · 0.8 ast Score 56

Even

F W. Jr. Exacte TR7 pts · 4.1 reb · 1.6 ast Score 43

W MichiganBetterMount St Marys

WMU offense137th of 366 · -4.0

WMUSmall

MSM defense199th of 366 · -4.8

WMU defense253rd of 366 · -6.6

WMUSmall

MSM offense319th of 366 · -10.5

Backcourt-1.0 · 4 players

WMUBig

Backcourt-5.9 · 4 players

Frontcourt0.0 · 1 player

Even

Frontcourt-0.5 · 1 player

Bench-1.7 · 4 players

Even

Bench-2.4 · 4 players

Score, worst to bestWMU betterMSM betterTR transfer · NEW no Division I numbers

Projected starters: college teams publish no depth chart, so these come from minutes played, and a freshman or a new starter can change them. The score is the share of ranked players at the position that player is ahead of. Numbers are this season's once a player has 30 minutes, 2025-26's before that. Bench is the next five by minutes. Tap a player for the full numbers.

Depth chart

Projected rotation by position, starters outlined

W Michigan

Guards

T. Hayhurst31 min · TRM. Bendinger31 min · TRR. Lee29 min · TRJ. Washington27 min · TRJ. Gomez23 min · TRA. Harakow19 min · TR

Forwards

I. Finlinson23 min · TRJ. Eli15 min · TRA. Kiudulas14 min · TRD. WatkinsNew

Centers

J. JünemannNew

Mount St Marys

Guards

A. Khadre Kebe22 minR. Thompson22 min · TRA. Arrington19 minM. So18 minA. Rozakeas14 minC. Orness3 min · TR

Forwards

W. Jr. Exacte19 min · TRY. Diop9 minL. JoyceNewR. BrzezanskiNewN. LimolNewC. GardNew

In order of minutes, from rosters as of today. ESPN lists players only as guards, forwards or centers, and no injury report exists for college basketball, so a player who is out may still show here.

Showing 2025-26 until both teams have played this season.

Matchup stats

2025-26 · rank among 365 teams

ChartTable

Scoring

Points per game

WMU73.9 #203

MSM67.9 #315

Points per possession

WMU1.06 #225

MSM1.00 #327

Pace (possessions)

WMU69.3 #160

MSM68.0 #231

Shooting

Effective FG%

WMU49.9 #241

MSM50.6 #208

3-point %

WMU35.3 #95

MSM32.7 #244

3-point attempt rate

WMU36.1 #248

MSM42.6 #125

Free throw rate

WMU32.8 #241

MSM33.3 #230

Possessions

Turnover rate

WMU16.8 #191

MSM22.4 #364

Offensive rebound rate

WMU30.5 #177

MSM32.3 #115

Assists per game

WMU12.4 #256

MSM13.2 #196

Defense

Points allowed

WMU80.1 #320

MSM71.0 #74

Points allowed per possession

WMU1.16 #336

MSM1.05 #84

Opponent effective FG%

WMU54.4 #310

MSM47.2 #23

Opponent 3-point %

WMU36.1 #307

MSM32.3 #81

Turnovers forced

WMU13.4 #346

MSM15.3 #262

Defensive rebound rate

WMU70.9 #110

MSM70.9 #114

Steals per game

WMU4.1 #362

MSM5.8 #261

Blocks per game

WMU2.5 #301

MSM2.9 #248

WMU		MSM
Scoring
73.9 #203	Points per game	67.9 #315
1.06 #225	Points per possession	1.00 #327
69.3 #160	Pace (possessions)	68.0 #231
Shooting
49.9 #241	Effective FG%	50.6 #208
35.3 #95	3-point %	32.7 #244
36.1 #248	3-point attempt rate	42.6 #125
32.8 #241	Free throw rate	33.3 #230
Possessions
16.8 #191	Turnover rate	22.4 #364
30.5 #177	Offensive rebound rate	32.3 #115
12.4 #256	Assists per game	13.2 #196
Defense
80.1 #320	Points allowed	71.0 #74
1.16 #336	Points allowed per possession	1.05 #84
54.4 #310	Opponent effective FG%	47.2 #23
36.1 #307	Opponent 3-point %	32.3 #81
13.4 #346	Turnovers forced	15.3 #262
70.9 #110	Defensive rebound rate	70.9 #114
4.1 #362	Steals per game	5.8 #261
2.5 #301	Blocks per game	2.9 #248

From the box scores. A longer bar is a better national rank, on every row; the better team's bar is solid. A green rank is near the top of Division I, a red one near the bottom. Pace and 3-point rate are styles, so they have no better side.

W Michigan

9-20 in 2025-26 overall · 4-14 in conference · Mid-American Conference

Last five, 2025-26

L@ Kent State78–86
Lvs Ball State71–74
Lvs Miami OH67–69
W@ Bowling Green88–79
L@ C Michigan70–83

A week or more of rest.

Mount St Marys

14-17 in 2025-26 overall · 11-10 in conference · Metro Conference

Last five, 2025-26

Lvs Siena58–63
W@ Fairfield69–47
L@ Sacred Heart69–77
Wvs Canisius68–47
Wvs Niagara76–63

A week or more of rest.

Western Michigan Broncos at Mount St. Mary's Mountaineers

What could decide it

Market

Model vs market

1st-half model

ATS

Totals

Last 10 games

Next 3 games

Recent meetings

ATS History · 2025-26

W Michigan

Mount St Marys

W Michigan has the better starters

Depth chart

Matchup stats

W Michigan

Mount St Marys