1. NCAAB
  2. Tue, Nov 24
  3. MSM @ MORG
NCAAB · Tue, Nov 24

Mount St. Mary's Mountaineers at Morgan State Bears

Hill Field House · at Morgan St
#278MSMMount St Marys
@
#345MORGMorgan St
LineNo line yet 
Total— 
MSMThis seasonMORG
0-0Record0-0
0-0ATS0-0
0-0O/U0-0

ATS = covered-didn’t-push · O/U = overs-unders

Model: projects MSM 75–72 · win probability MSM 61%
Pick this game
Your picksMy picks ›
Winner
Line
—
no line yet
Total
—
model 147.4
Model edge
—
No market line yet
Public
—
No split yet for this game
The model has not beaten the closing line: with an edge of 3 or more it went 409-367 in 2025-26. Model record

What could decide it

MSM 3, MORG 3 · 2025-26 numbers until both teams have played three games
MSMBig
Shooting
Effective FG%: MSM 50.6 and allows 47.2; MORG 45.8 and allows 51.7
MSMBig
Rebounding
Offensive rebound rate: MSM 32.3%, MORG 30.7%. Defensive: MSM 70.9%, MORG 64.8%
MSMSmall
MORG offense vs MSM defense
Offense 293rd of 366 against a defense 199th, on the model’s ratings
MORGSmall
Turnovers
Turnover rate: MSM 22.4%, MORG 17.8%. Forced: MSM 15.3%, MORG 16.5%
Context
Tempo
About 70 possessions: MSM plays 68.0 a game (231st fastest), MORG 71.1 (73rd). Faster games mean more points
Context
Schedule so far
MSM has played the 291st-hardest schedule, MORG the 360th. A record against a soft schedule means less
MORGSmall
Home court
MORG at home. This season: MORG 0-0 at home, MSM 0-0 away
MORGSmall
Free throws
Free throw rate: MSM 33.3, MORG 42.7. Allowed: MSM 37.3, MORG 50.9
Even
MSM offense vs MORG defense
Offense 319th of 366 against a defense 360th, on the model’s ratings
Even
Who is back
Minutes back from last season: MSM 42%, MORG 36%. Transfers in: MSM 3, MORG 3. Early in a season, turnover makes teams harder to price
Even
Three-pointers
MSM hits 32.7% and allows 32.3%; MORG hits 31.7% and allows 31.5%. Threes are 42.6% and 35.2% of their shots
Sorted by how lopsided each matchup is, from national ranks. Reasons to look, not picks: the market already knows most of this.

Market

Open → current
Spread
Opening line not available
Total
 
Moneyline
—

Pre-game lines only (ESPN, DraftKings first). After tip-off the line shown is the closing line.

Model vs market

MarketModelModel edge
Spread—MSM -3.3—
Total—147.4—
Projected score—MSM 75.4 · MORG 72.1

1st-half model

1st-half slate ›
ModelActual
1H spreadMSM -2.1—
1H total69.0—
1H projected scoreMSM 35.5 · MORG 33.4—
The 1st-half model is fitted from the full-game model and past halves. ESPN has no 1st-half lines for college games, so there is no market to compare it with.

The starting fives are even

Position by position: Mount St Marys 1, Morgan St 1, even 3
Mount St MarysBetterMorgan St
G A. Khadre Kebe7.5 pts · 5.8 reb · 0.9 ast Score 55
MORGSmall
G A. Worrell16.7 pts · 3.8 reb · 1.1 ast Score 70
G R. Thompson TR10.4 pts · 1.6 reb · 1.9 ast Score 49
MSMBig
G J. Awoke TR6.8 pts · 2.8 reb · 1.8 ast Score 12
G A. Arrington5.5 pts · 2.1 reb · 1 ast Score 2
No call
G D. Bumpass2.7 pts · 1.1 reb · 0.2 ast Not ranked
G M. So3.9 pts · 2.3 reb · 2.1 ast Score 13
Even
F K. Horton TR7.2 pts · 2.1 reb · 0.8 ast Score 19
F W. Jr. Exacte TR7 pts · 4.1 reb · 1.6 ast Score 43
No call
F T. Edwards3.5 pts · 3.5 reb · 0 ast Not ranked
Mount St MarysBetterMorgan St
MSM offense319th of 366 · -10.5
Even
MORG defense360th of 366 · -11.0
MSM defense199th of 366 · -4.8
MSMSmall
MORG offense293rd of 366 · -9.1
Backcourt-5.9 · 4 players
MORGSmall
Backcourt-3.4 · 3 players
Frontcourt-0.5 · 1 player
MSMSmall
Frontcourt-2.7 · 2 players
Bench-2.4 · 4 players
Even
Bench-2.4 · 4 players
Score, worst to bestMSM betterMORG betterTR transfer · NEW no Division I numbers
Projected starters: college teams publish no depth chart, so these come from minutes played, and a freshman or a new starter can change them. The score is the share of ranked players at the position that player is ahead of. Numbers are this season's once a player has 30 minutes, 2025-26's before that. Bench is the next five by minutes. Tap a player for the full numbers.

Depth chart

Projected rotation by position, starters outlined
Mount St Marys
Guards
A. Khadre Kebe22 minR. Thompson22 min · TRA. Arrington19 minM. So18 minA. Rozakeas14 minC. Orness3 min · TR
Forwards
W. Jr. Exacte19 min · TRY. Diop9 minL. JoyceNewR. BrzezanskiNewN. LimolNewC. GardNew
Morgan St
Guards
A. Worrell30 minJ. Awoke25 min · TRD. Bumpass9 minB. Barnett2 minJ. KwartengNewK. RichardNew
Forwards
K. Horton20 min · TRT. Edwards17 minM. Wade8 minM. Lual7 minI. Traore6 min · TRT. PettigrewNew
In order of minutes, from rosters as of today. ESPN lists players only as guards, forwards or centers, and no injury report exists for college basketball, so a player who is out may still show here.
Showing 2025-26 until both teams have played this season.

Matchup stats

2025-26 · rank among 365 teams
Scoring
Shooting
Possessions
Defense
MSMMORG
Scoring
67.9 #315Points per game71.7 #252
1.00 #327Points per possession1.01 #316
68.0 #231Pace (possessions)71.1 #73
Shooting
50.6 #208Effective FG%45.8 #351
32.7 #2443-point %31.7 #295
42.6 #1253-point attempt rate35.2 #274
33.3 #230Free throw rate42.7 #22
Possessions
22.4 #364Turnover rate17.8 #262
32.3 #115Offensive rebound rate30.7 #172
13.2 #196Assists per game12.2 #269
Defense
71.0 #74Points allowed80.1 #321
1.05 #84Points allowed per possession1.13 #288
47.2 #23Opponent effective FG%51.7 #194
32.3 #81Opponent 3-point %31.5 #43
15.3 #262Turnovers forced16.5 #186
70.9 #114Defensive rebound rate64.8 #341
5.8 #261Steals per game4.3 #359
2.9 #248Blocks per game3.3 #172
From the box scores. A longer bar is a better national rank, on every row; the better team's bar is solid. A green rank is near the top of Division I, a red one near the bottom. Pace and 3-point rate are styles, so they have no better side.

Mount St Marys

14-17 in 2025-26 overall · 11-10 in conference · Metro Conference

Last five, 2025-26
  • Lvs Siena58–63
  • W@ Fairfield69–47
  • L@ Sacred Heart69–77
  • Wvs Canisius68–47
  • Wvs Niagara76–63

A week or more of rest.

Morgan St

11-16 in 2025-26 overall · 10-5 in conference · Mid-Eastern Athletic Conference

Last five, 2025-26
  • Lvs Delaware St70–75
  • Wvs Coppin St70–66
  • Wvs Norfolk St90–84
  • Lvs Howard59–84
  • W@ SC State90–83

A week or more of rest.