1. NCAAB
  2. Fri, Nov 20
  3. WAG @ MD
NCAAB · Fri, Nov 20

Wagner Seahawks at Maryland Terrapins

XFINITY Center · at Maryland
#354WAGWagner
@
#50MDMaryland
LineNo line yet 
Total— 
WAGThis seasonMD
0-0Record0-0
0-0ATS0-0
0-0O/U0-0

ATS = covered-didn’t-push · O/U = overs-unders

Model: projects MD 87–57 · win probability MD 100%
Pick this game
Your picksMy picks ›
Winner
Line
—
no line yet
Total
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model 143.1
Model edge
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No market line yet
Public
—
No split yet for this game
The model has not beaten the closing line: with an edge of 3 or more it went 409-367 in 2025-26. Model record

What could decide it: MD has more of the edges

WAG 2, MD 5 · 2025-26 numbers until both teams have played three games
MDBig
WAG offense vs MD defense
Offense 359th of 366 against a defense 34th, on the model’s ratings
Context
Schedule so far
WAG has played the 349th-hardest schedule, MD the 28th. A record against a soft schedule means less
MDBig
MD offense vs WAG defense
Offense 63rd of 366 against a defense 293rd, on the model’s ratings
WAGBig
Three-pointers
WAG hits 36.6% and allows 34.3%; MD hits 31.7% and allows 36.3%. Threes are 36.1% and 46.9% of their shots
WAGBig
Shooting
Effective FG%: WAG 49.6 and allows 50.4; MD 48.1 and allows 54.4
MDSmall
Free throws
Free throw rate: WAG 32.4, MD 36.4. Allowed: WAG 40.8, MD 35.8
MDSmall
Who is back
Minutes back from last season: WAG 0%, MD 47%. Transfers in: WAG 8, MD 5. Early in a season, turnover makes teams harder to price
MDSmall
Home court
MD at home. This season: MD 0-0 at home, WAG 0-0 away
Even
Rebounding
Offensive rebound rate: WAG 32.8%, MD 33.8%. Defensive: WAG 70.5%, MD 70.9%
Context
Tempo
About 67 possessions: WAG plays 66.4 a game (299th fastest), MD 67.0 (281st). Faster games mean more points
Even
Turnovers
Turnover rate: WAG 18.6%, MD 18.6%. Forced: WAG 14.9%, MD 14.9%
Sorted by how lopsided each matchup is, from national ranks. Reasons to look, not picks: the market already knows most of this.

Market

Open → current
Spread
Opening line not available
Total
 
Moneyline
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Pre-game lines only (ESPN, DraftKings first). After tip-off the line shown is the closing line.

Model vs market

MarketModelModel edge
Spread—MD -30.0—
Total—143.1—
Projected score—WAG 56.5 · MD 86.5

1st-half model

1st-half slate ›
ModelActual
1H spreadMD -17.7—
1H total67.0—
1H projected scoreWAG 24.6 · MD 42.3—
The 1st-half model is fitted from the full-game model and past halves. ESPN has no 1st-half lines for college games, so there is no market to compare it with.

Maryland has the better starters

Position by position: Wagner 0, Maryland 3, even 2
WagnerBetterMaryland
G T. Bryant TR3.1 pts · 3.2 reb · 1.3 ast Score 8
MDBig
G M. McNair TR16.9 pts · 5.2 reb · 2.2 ast Score 84
G C. Estevez TR3.4 pts · 1.2 reb · 0.9 ast Score 14
MDBig
G A. Mills12.2 pts · 4.1 reb · 1.6 ast Score 89
G R. Pettis TR1.3 pts · 1.8 reb · 0.8 ast Not ranked
No call
G B. Boswell TR6.2 pts · 4.4 reb · 3.1 ast Score 70
F K. Watson TR4.3 pts · 2.1 reb · 0.4 ast Score 31
MDBig
F P. Payne17.5 pts · 7.2 reb · 1.4 ast Score 100
C B. Smith TR1.5 pts · 1.6 reb · 0.2 ast Not ranked
No call
F T. Buljan TR13.1 pts · 10.3 reb · 1.5 ast Score 97
WagnerBetterMaryland
WAG offense359th of 366 · -14.0
MDBig
MD defense34th of 366 · +3.3
WAG defense293rd of 366 · -7.4
MDBig
MD offense63rd of 366 · +2.4
Backcourt-3.1 · 3 players
MDBig
Backcourt+4.9 · 3 players
Frontcourt-1.5 · 2 players
MDBig
Frontcourt+11.4 · 2 players
Bench-1.9 · 3 players
Even
Bench-2.3 · 5 players
Score, worst to bestWAG betterMD betterTR transfer · NEW no Division I numbers
Projected starters: college teams publish no depth chart, so these come from minutes played, and a freshman or a new starter can change them. The score is the share of ranked players at the position that player is ahead of. Numbers are this season's once a player has 30 minutes, 2025-26's before that. Bench is the next five by minutes. Tap a player for the full numbers.

Depth chart

Projected rotation by position, starters outlined
Wagner
Guards
T. Bryant14 min · TRC. Estevez12 min · TRR. Pettis10 min · TRL. McGradyNewJ. CurtisNewG. EdwardsNew
Forwards
K. Watson12 min · TRT. Jones5 min · TRA. RodriguezNewD. KabaNewF. HassanNew
Centers
B. Smith8 min · TRY. Singar8 min · TRW. Patterson4 min · TR
Maryland
Guards
M. McNair37 min · TRA. Mills27 minB. Boswell27 min · TRD. Wagner24 min · TRM. Jabriel20 minG. Turkson11 min
Forwards
P. Payne27 minT. Buljan26 min · TRR. Jennings13 min · TRA. BrownNewB. OladotunNewA. TambedouNew
Centers
A. K'MedehoutoNew
In order of minutes, from rosters as of today. ESPN lists players only as guards, forwards or centers, and no injury report exists for college basketball, so a player who is out may still show here.
Showing 2025-26 until both teams have played this season.

Matchup stats

2025-26 · rank among 365 teams
Scoring
Shooting
Possessions
Defense
WAGMD
Scoring
69.6 #292Points per game69.7 #291
1.05 #250Points per possession1.04 #270
66.4 #299Pace (possessions)67.0 #281
Shooting
49.6 #262Effective FG%48.1 #311
36.6 #363-point %31.7 #293
36.1 #2493-point attempt rate46.9 #35
32.4 #252Free throw rate36.4 #142
Possessions
18.6 #303Turnover rate18.6 #300
32.8 #96Offensive rebound rate33.8 #73
11.9 #289Assists per game10.4 #351
Defense
72.7 #126Points allowed76.6 #232
1.09 #208Points allowed per possession1.14 #312
50.4 #123Opponent effective FG%54.4 #312
34.3 #202Opponent 3-point %36.3 #317
14.9 #295Turnovers forced14.9 #294
70.5 #139Defensive rebound rate70.9 #111
5.2 #321Steals per game4.8 #345
2.3 #320Blocks per game2.9 #237
From the box scores. A longer bar is a better national rank, on every row; the better team's bar is solid. A green rank is near the top of Division I, a red one near the bottom. Pace and 3-point rate are styles, so they have no better side.

Wagner

11-17 in 2025-26 overall · 9-11 in conference · Northeast Conference

Last five, 2025-26
  • L@ Long Island56–64
  • W@ C Connecticut70–60
  • Wvs Chicago St80–61
  • Wvs New Haven65–62
  • W@ Saint Francis Red Wolves65–56

A week or more of rest.

Maryland

12-21 in 2025-26 overall · 5-17 in conference · Big Ten Conference

Last five, 2025-26
  • Lvs Iowa64–75
  • Wvs Oregon70–60
  • Lvs Illinois72–78
  • L@ Wisconsin45–78
  • Lvs Rutgers65–69

A week or more of rest.