Wichita State Shockers at Loyola Chicago Ramblers: Model Line and Edge

Wed, Nov 18, 8:00 PM ETGentile Arena · at Loyola Chicago

LineNo line yet

Total—

Season records: Wichita St and Loyola Chicago
WICH	This season	LUC
0-0	Record	0-0
0-0	ATS	0-0
0-0	O/U	0-0

ATS = covered-didn’t-push · O/U = overs-unders

Model: projects WICH 75–71 · win probability WICH 64%

Pick this game

Your picksMy picks ›

Winner

Line

—

no line yet

Total

—

model 146.2

Model edge

—

No market line yet

Public

—

No split yet for this game

The model has not beaten the closing line: with an edge of 3 or more it went 409-367 in 2025-26. Model record

What could decide it: WICH has more of the edges

WICH 6, LUC 1 · 2025-26 numbers until both teams have played three games

WICHBig

Turnovers

Turnover rate: WICH 15.0%, LUC 19.8%. Forced: WICH 15.7%, LUC 12.9%

WICHBig

Three-pointers

WICH hits 33.5% and allows 31.5%; LUC hits 31.7% and allows 36.8%. Threes are 33.9% and 47.7% of their shots

WICHBig

Rebounding

Offensive rebound rate: WICH 38.0%, LUC 30.5%. Defensive: WICH 71.2%, LUC 70.3%

WICHSmall

Shooting

Effective FG%: WICH 49.4 and allows 47.2; LUC 49.8 and allows 52.0

Context

Tempo

About 68 possessions: WICH plays 69.3 a game (164th fastest), LUC 66.1 (309th). Faster games mean more points

WICHSmall

Who is back

Minutes back from last season: WICH 55%, LUC 22%. Transfers in: WICH 4, LUC 9. Early in a season, turnover makes teams harder to price

LUCSmall

Home court

LUC at home. This season: LUC 0-0 at home, WICH 0-0 away

WICHSmall

LUC offense vs WICH defense

Offense 132nd of 366 against a defense 82nd, on the model’s ratings

Even

Free throws

Free throw rate: WICH 36.0, LUC 34.8. Allowed: WICH 34.3, LUC 33.6

Even

WICH offense vs LUC defense

Offense 78th of 366 against a defense 90th, on the model’s ratings

Context

Schedule so far

WICH has played the 106th-hardest schedule, LUC the 112th. A record against a soft schedule means less

Sorted by how lopsided each matchup is, from national ranks. Reasons to look, not picks: the market already knows most of this.

Model vs market

	Market	Model	Model edge
Spread	—	WICH -4.2	—
Total	—	146.2	—
Projected score	—	WICH 75.2 · LUC 71

1st-half model

1st-half slate ›

	Model	Actual
1H spread	WICH -2.6	—
1H total	68.4	—
1H projected score	WICH 35.5 · LUC 32.9	—

The 1st-half model is fitted from the full-game model and past halves. ESPN has no 1st-half lines for college games, so there is no market to compare it with.

Showing 2025-26 until both teams have played this season.

ATS

2025-26 season

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
WICH WLLWW	23-12	66%	9-4	—
LUC WWWWW	13-20	39%	6-10	—

Venue/role: WICH away; LUC home. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

2025-26 season

	O-U	Over %	SU
WICH UUUOO	15-20	43%	23-12
LUC UUUOU	15-18	45%	9-24

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Tap for the score and line.

Last 10 games

2025-26

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
WICH	8-2 80%	7-3 70%	5-5 50%
LUC	4-6 40%	7-3 70%	2-8 20%

Wins-losses (pushes last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Next 3 games

With how the last meeting with each opponent went

Wichita St

Date	Game	Last meeting
Nov 21	vs UNM	No recent meeting
Nov 23	vs AMCC	No recent meeting
Nov 27	@ UK	No recent meeting

Loyola Chicago

Date	Game	Last meeting
Nov 22	vs SJSU	L51–63LU
Nov 29	@ MASS	W74–51WU
Dec 10	@ HOW	No recent meeting

Last meeting: result, against the spread, over / under. Hover a result for its date.

Recent meetings

Since 2021-22

WICH 1–0 LUCWICH leads · 1 game since 2021-22 · WICH 1-0 ATS

Date	Result	Line	Covered
Nov 13, 2025-26	LUC 74 @ WICH 95	WICH -5.5	WICH W

ATS History · 2025-26

WwinLloss·Wats winLats lossPpush·Owent over the totalUwent under the total

Wichita St

35 games played

Straight up

23-12

66% wins

Against the spread

23-12

66% covers · avg +3.2 pts vs the line

Over / Under

15-20

43% overs · avg −1.3 pts vs the total

Straight up

23-1266%

W W W L W L L L W L W W W L L W L W W W L W W L W W W W W W W L W W L

2 of last 4 wonno streak

Against the spread

23-1266%

W W W W W W L L W L L W W L L W L W W W L W W L W L W W W W W L L W W

2 straight covers2 of last 4 covered

Over / Under

15-2043%

U O O U U U O U O U O U U O U O U O U U O U U U O O U O U O U U U O O

2 straight overs2 of last 4 over

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Nov 4	vsUNCA	W 75-58	-6.5	W +10.5	157.5	U 133
Nov 8	vsPV	W 105-62	-20.5	W +22.5	156.5	O 167
Nov 13	vsLUC	W 95-74	-5.5	W +15.5	153.5	O 169
Nov 18	@BOIS	L 59-62	+9.5	W +6.5	150.5	U 121
Nov 22	vsMILW	W 75-58	-10.5	W +6.5	158.5	U 133
Nov 26	vsSMC	L 65-70	+9.5	W +4.5	139.5	U 135
Nov 27	vsCSU	L 70-76	+1.5	L −4.5	142.5	O 146
Nov 28	vsWKU	L 70-75	-4.5	L −9.5	155.5	U 145
Dec 6	@UNI	W 74-69	+1.5	W +6.5	135.5	O 143
Dec 13	vsDEP	L 58-61	-7.5	L −10.5	145.5	U 119
Dec 17	vsWOF	W 84-73	-12.5	L −1.5	144.5	O 157
Dec 21	vsEKU	W 88-57	-14.5	W +16.5	148.5	U 145
Dec 31	@UAB	W 75-70	+3.5	W +8.5	149.5	U 145
Jan 3	@CLT	L 100-104	-5.5	L −9.5	140.5	O 204
Jan 7	vsRICE	L 64-66	-13.5	L −15.5	145.5	U 130
Jan 11	vsUNT	W 78-67	-8.5	W +2.5	135.5	O 145
Jan 15	@FAU	L 67-85	+3.5	L −14.5	155.5	U 152
Jan 18	@USF	W 86-85	+7.5	W +8.5	158.5	O 171
Jan 21	vsECU	W 77-60	-12.5	W +4.5	144.5	U 137
Jan 24	vsMEM	W 74-59	-3.5	W +11.5	145.5	U 133
Feb 1	@TLSA	L 83-93	+5.5	L −4.5	154.5	O 176
Feb 4	vsCLT	W 74-64	-9.5	W +0.5	143.5	U 138
Feb 8	@TULN	W 75-61	-5.5	W +8.5	148.5	U 136
Feb 11	vsUSF	L 58-66	+2.5	L −5.5	160.5	U 124
Feb 14	vsTLSA	W 81-77	-1.5	W +2.5	152.5	O 158
Feb 18	@ECU	W 92-89	-7.5	L −4.5	149.5	O 181
Feb 21	vsTEM	W 69-57	-8.5	W +3.5	144.5	U 126
Feb 26	@MEM	W 88-82	+1.5	W +7.5	149.5	O 170
Mar 1	@UTSA	W 84-67	-15.5	W +1.5	151.5	U 151
Mar 7	vsFAU	W 88-70	-8.5	W +9.5	150.5	O 158
Mar 14	vsTLSA	W 81-68	+1.5	W +14.5	152.5	U 149
Mar 15	vsUSF	L 55-70	+6.5	L −8.5	151.5	U 125
Mar 17	vsWYO	W 74-70	-5.5	L −1.5	148.5	U 144
Mar 22	@OKST	W 96-70	+2.5	W +28.5	164.5	O 166
Mar 24	@TLSA	L 79-83	+4.5	W +0.5	154.5	O 162

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

UNCA

W 75-58

+10.5

W 105-62

+22.5

LUC

W 95-74

+15.5

BOIS

L 59-62

+6.5

MILW

W 75-58

+6.5

SMC

L 65-70

+4.5

CSU

L 70-76

−4.5

WKU

L 70-75

−9.5

UNI

W 74-69

+6.5

DEP

L 58-61

−10.5

WOF

W 84-73

−1.5

EKU

W 88-57

+16.5

UAB

W 75-70

+8.5

CLT

L 100-104

−9.5

RICE

L 64-66

−15.5

UNT

W 78-67

+2.5

FAU

L 67-85

−14.5

USF

W 86-85

+8.5

ECU

W 77-60

+4.5

MEM

W 74-59

+11.5

TLSA

L 83-93

−4.5

CLT

W 74-64

+0.5

TULN

W 75-61

+8.5

USF

L 58-66

−5.5

TLSA

W 81-77

+2.5

ECU

W 92-89

−4.5

TEM

W 69-57

+3.5

MEM

W 88-82

+7.5

UTSA

W 84-67

+1.5

FAU

W 88-70

+9.5

TLSA

W 81-68

+14.5

USF

L 55-70

−8.5

WYO

W 74-70

−1.5

OKST

W 96-70

+28.5

TLSA

L 79-83

+0.5

covered 23didn’t cover 12avg +3.2 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

UNCA

W 75-58

−24.5

W 105-62

+10.5

LUC

W 95-74

+15.5

BOIS

L 59-62

−29.5

MILW

W 75-58

−25.5

SMC

L 65-70

−4.5

CSU

L 70-76

+3.5

WKU

L 70-75

−10.5

UNI

W 74-69

+7.5

DEP

L 58-61

−26.5

WOF

W 84-73

+12.5

EKU

W 88-57

−3.5

UAB

W 75-70

−4.5

CLT

L 100-104

+63.5

RICE

L 64-66

−15.5

UNT

W 78-67

+9.5

FAU

L 67-85

−3.5

USF

W 86-85

+12.5

ECU

W 77-60

−7.5

MEM

W 74-59

−12.5

TLSA

L 83-93

+21.5

CLT

W 74-64

−5.5

TULN

W 75-61

−12.5

USF

L 58-66

−36.5

TLSA

W 81-77

+5.5

ECU

W 92-89

+31.5

TEM

W 69-57

−18.5

MEM

W 88-82

+20.5

UTSA

W 84-67

−0.5

FAU

W 88-70

+7.5

TLSA

W 81-68

−3.5

USF

L 55-70

−26.5

WYO

W 74-70

−4.5

OKST

W 96-70

+1.5

TLSA

L 79-83

+7.5

over 15under 20avg −1.3 ptslonger = bigger margin

Loyola Chicago

33 games played

Straight up

9-24

27% wins

Against the spread

13-20

39% covers · avg −4.5 pts vs the line

Over / Under

15-18

45% overs · avg −1.8 pts vs the total

Straight up

9-2427%

W L L L L L L L W W L L W W L L L L L L L L L W L L L L W L W W L

2 of last 4 wonno streak

Against the spread

13-2039%

L L L L L L L L W L L L W W W L L W L L L L W W L L W L W W W W W

5 straight covers4 of last 4 covered

Over / Under

15-1845%

O U U O U U U U O O O O O U U O O O U O U O O U O U U U U U U O U

1 of last 4 overno streak

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Nov 3	vsCLE	W 91-88	-17.5	L −14.5	151.5	O 179
Nov 6	vsMERC	L 65-73	-21.5	L −29.5	144.5	U 138
Nov 9	vsUNT	L 62-64	-1.5	L −3.5	138.5	U 126
Nov 13	@WICH	L 74-95	+5.5	L −15.5	153.5	O 169
Nov 16	vsCSU	L 67-80	+3.5	L −9.5	151.5	U 147
Nov 21	vsNIU	L 59-76	-13.5	L −30.5	148.5	U 135
Nov 25	vsUNI	L 51-72	+8.5	L −12.5	134.5	U 123
Nov 26	vsSJSU	L 51-63	+1.5	L −10.5	136.5	U 114
Dec 2	vsCMU	W 83-72	-6.5	W +4.5	140.5	O 155
Dec 6	vsPRIN	W 73-68	-6.5	L −1.5	136.5	O 141
Dec 14	vsCHST	L 75-84	-15.5	L −24.5	140.5	O 159
Dec 17	@SF	L 71-85	+11.5	L −2.5	143.5	O 156
Dec 20	vsSCU	W 80-78	+15.5	W +17.5	151.5	O 158
Dec 31	@URI	W 61-57	+9.5	W +13.5	145.5	U 118
Jan 3	vsDAY	L 68-70	+7.5	W +5.5	140.5	U 138
Jan 7	vsDAV	L 64-79	+1.5	L −13.5	136.5	O 143
Jan 10	@GW	L 66-101	+14.5	L −20.5	154.5	O 167
Jan 13	vsGMU	L 74-82	+11.5	W +3.5	140.5	O 156
Jan 16	@DAY	L 51-78	+16.5	L −10.5	141.5	U 129
Jan 20	@SBU	L 70-84	+10.5	L −3.5	147.5	O 154
Jan 24	vsDUQ	L 59-71	+5.5	L −6.5	152.5	U 130
Jan 27	vsJOES	L 64-85	+1.5	L −19.5	143.5	O 149
Jan 30	@VCU	L 75-89	+18.5	W +4.5	150.5	O 164
Feb 3	vsLAS	W 71-61	-2.5	W +7.5	140.5	U 132
Feb 6	@DAV	L 64-84	+9.5	L −10.5	140.5	O 148
Feb 13	vsSLU	L 59-86	+17.5	L −9.5	155.5	U 145
Feb 18	@FOR	L 59-62	+8.5	W +5.5	135.5	U 121
Feb 21	@JOES	L 61-75	+9.5	L −4.5	142.5	U 136
Feb 28	vsRICH	W 69-66	+2.5	W +5.5	146.5	U 135
Mar 4	@SLU	L 65-79	+21.5	W +7.5	155.5	U 144
Mar 7	vsGW	W 68-62	+9.5	W +15.5	148.5	U 130
Mar 11	vsRICH	W 75-67	+4.5	W +12.5	141.5	O 142
Mar 12	vsDAV	L 59-64	+5.5	W +0.5	132.5	U 123

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

CLE

W 91-88

−14.5

MERC

L 65-73

−29.5

UNT

L 62-64

−3.5

WICH

L 74-95

−15.5

CSU

L 67-80

−9.5

NIU

L 59-76

−30.5

UNI

L 51-72

−12.5

SJSU

L 51-63

−10.5

CMU

W 83-72

+4.5

PRIN

W 73-68

−1.5

CHST

L 75-84

−24.5

L 71-85

−2.5

SCU

W 80-78

+17.5

URI

W 61-57

+13.5

DAY

L 68-70

+5.5

DAV

L 64-79

−13.5

L 66-101

−20.5

GMU

L 74-82

+3.5

DAY

L 51-78

−10.5

SBU

L 70-84

−3.5

DUQ

L 59-71

−6.5

JOES

L 64-85

−19.5

VCU

L 75-89

+4.5

LAS

W 71-61

+7.5

DAV

L 64-84

−10.5

SLU

L 59-86

−9.5

FOR

L 59-62

+5.5

JOES

L 61-75

−4.5

RICH

W 69-66

+5.5

SLU

L 65-79

+7.5

W 68-62

+15.5

RICH

W 75-67

+12.5

DAV

L 59-64

+0.5

covered 13didn’t cover 20avg −4.5 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

CLE

W 91-88

+27.5

MERC

L 65-73

−6.5

UNT

L 62-64

−12.5

WICH

L 74-95

+15.5

CSU

L 67-80

−4.5

NIU

L 59-76

−13.5

UNI

L 51-72

−11.5

SJSU

L 51-63

−22.5

CMU

W 83-72

+14.5

PRIN

W 73-68

+4.5

CHST

L 75-84

+18.5

L 71-85

+12.5

SCU

W 80-78

+6.5

URI

W 61-57

−27.5

DAY

L 68-70

−2.5

DAV

L 64-79

+6.5

L 66-101

+12.5

GMU

L 74-82

+15.5

DAY

L 51-78

−12.5

SBU

L 70-84

+6.5

DUQ

L 59-71

−22.5

JOES

L 64-85

+5.5

VCU

L 75-89

+13.5

LAS

W 71-61

−8.5

DAV

L 64-84

+7.5

SLU

L 59-86

−10.5

FOR

L 59-62

−14.5

JOES

L 61-75

−6.5

RICH

W 69-66

−11.5

SLU

L 65-79

−11.5

W 68-62

−18.5

RICH

W 75-67

+0.5

DAV

L 59-64

−9.5

over 15under 18avg −1.8 ptslonger = bigger margin

Line = the team’s closing spread (negative = favored). ATS number = points beyond the line; total number = combined points.

Wichita St has the better starters

Position by position: Wichita St 2, Loyola Chicago 0, even 3

Wichita StBetterLoyola Chicago

G J. Long TR11.8 pts · 3.3 reb · 4 ast Score 72

Even

G D. Hand TR12.4 pts · 4.4 reb · 1.3 ast Score 58

G J. Frison TR16.5 pts · 3.4 reb · 4.1 ast Score 93

Even

G D. Nessah TR15.8 pts · 6.3 reb · 2.4 ast Score 91

G M. Gray7.9 pts · 3.3 reb · 2.4 ast Score 37

Even

G R. Agarwal TR5.9 pts · 4.1 reb · 0.8 ast Score 26

G T. Williams8.8 pts · 5.1 reb · 1.5 ast Score 80

WICHSmall

F E. Ricks TR7.3 pts · 5.6 reb · 1.6 ast Score 53

C W. Berg8.8 pts · 8 reb · 0.7 ast Score 85

WICHSmall

F X. Amos11.1 pts · 4.3 reb · 0.7 ast Score 65

Wichita StBetterLoyola Chicago

WICH offense78th of 366 · +0.8

Even

LUC defense90th of 366 · -0.2

WICH defense82nd of 366 · +0.2

Even

LUC offense132nd of 366 · -3.9

Backcourt+3.8 · 4 players

WICHBig

Backcourt+0.8 · 3 players

Frontcourt+2.8 · 1 player

WICHSmall

Frontcourt+0.4 · 2 players

Bench+0.8 · 5 players

Even

Bench+0.6 · 5 players

Score, worst to bestWICH betterLUC betterTR transfer · NEW no Division I numbers

Projected starters: college teams publish no depth chart, so these come from minutes played, and a freshman or a new starter can change them. The score is the share of ranked players at the position that player is ahead of. Numbers are this season's once a player has 30 minutes, 2025-26's before that. Bench is the next five by minutes. Tap a player for the full numbers.

Depth chart

Projected rotation by position, starters outlined

Wichita St

Guards

J. Long34 min · TRJ. Frison31 min · TRM. Gray27 minT. Williams22 minB. Heard18 min · TRJ. IghovodjaNew

Forwards

D. Battie18 minJ. Valencia13 minN. Hill5 minH. Thengvall2 min

Centers

W. Berg22 minC. Malonga11 min · TR

Loyola Chicago

Guards

D. Hand31 min · TRD. Nessah28 min · TRR. Agarwal22 min · TRN. Anderson17 minJ. Dawson10 min · TRC. Jeffrey8 min · TR

Forwards

E. Ricks27 min · TRX. Amos26 minE. Rapieque15 min · TRA. WingNew

Centers

J. Schofield17 min · TRM. Diallo7 min · TRR. KreagerNew

In order of minutes, from rosters as of today. ESPN lists players only as guards, forwards or centers, and no injury report exists for college basketball, so a player who is out may still show here.

Showing 2025-26 until both teams have played this season.

Matchup stats

2025-26 · rank among 365 teams

ChartTable

Scoring

Points per game

WICH77.6 #105

LUC66.8 #337

Points per possession

WICH1.12 #98

LUC1.01 #313

Pace (possessions)

WICH69.3 #164

LUC66.1 #309

Shooting

Effective FG%

WICH49.4 #274

LUC49.8 #246

3-point %

WICH33.5 #195

LUC31.7 #296

3-point attempt rate

WICH33.9 #300

LUC47.7 #27

Free throw rate

WICH36.0 #149

LUC34.8 #188

Possessions

Turnover rate

WICH15.0 #62

LUC19.8 #343

Offensive rebound rate

WICH38.0 #8

LUC30.5 #179

Assists per game

WICH11.3 #325

LUC13.9 #151

Defense

Points allowed

WICH70.8 #71

LUC75.8 #212

Points allowed per possession

WICH1.02 #42

LUC1.14 #315

Opponent effective FG%

WICH47.2 #24

LUC52.0 #214

Opponent 3-point %

WICH31.5 #44

LUC36.8 #342

Turnovers forced

WICH15.7 #238

LUC12.9 #357

Defensive rebound rate

WICH71.2 #93

LUC70.3 #146

Steals per game

WICH6.0 #235

LUC4.1 #363

Blocks per game

WICH3.8 #100

LUC3.8 #101

WICH		LUC
Scoring
77.6 #105	Points per game	66.8 #337
1.12 #98	Points per possession	1.01 #313
69.3 #164	Pace (possessions)	66.1 #309
Shooting
49.4 #274	Effective FG%	49.8 #246
33.5 #195	3-point %	31.7 #296
33.9 #300	3-point attempt rate	47.7 #27
36.0 #149	Free throw rate	34.8 #188
Possessions
15.0 #62	Turnover rate	19.8 #343
38.0 #8	Offensive rebound rate	30.5 #179
11.3 #325	Assists per game	13.9 #151
Defense
70.8 #71	Points allowed	75.8 #212
1.02 #42	Points allowed per possession	1.14 #315
47.2 #24	Opponent effective FG%	52.0 #214
31.5 #44	Opponent 3-point %	36.8 #342
15.7 #238	Turnovers forced	12.9 #357
71.2 #93	Defensive rebound rate	70.3 #146
6.0 #235	Steals per game	4.1 #363
3.8 #100	Blocks per game	3.8 #101

From the box scores. A longer bar is a better national rank, on every row; the better team's bar is solid. A green rank is near the top of Division I, a red one near the bottom. Pace and 3-point rate are styles, so they have no better side.

Wichita St

23-12 in 2025-26 overall · 14-6 in conference · American Conference

Last five, 2025-26

L@ Tulsa79–83
W@ Oklahoma St96–70
Wvs Wyoming74–70
Lvs South Florida55–70
Wvs Tulsa81–68

A week or more of rest.

Loyola Chicago

9-24 in 2025-26 overall · 5-15 in conference · Atlantic 10 Conference

Last five, 2025-26

Lvs Davidson59–64
Wvs Richmond75–67
Wvs G Washington68–62
L@ Saint Louis65–79
Wvs Richmond69–66

A week or more of rest.

Wichita State Shockers at Loyola Chicago Ramblers

What could decide it: WICH has more of the edges

Market

Model vs market

1st-half model

ATS

Totals

Last 10 games

Next 3 games

Recent meetings

ATS History · 2025-26

Wichita St

Loyola Chicago

Wichita St has the better starters

Depth chart

Matchup stats

Wichita St

Loyola Chicago