UNC Greensboro Spartans at Gardner-Webb Runnin' Bulldogs: Model Line and Edge

Wed, Nov 18, 8:00 PM ETPaul Porter Arena · at Gardner-Webb

LineNo line yet

Total—

Season records: UNC Greensboro and Gardner-Webb
UNCG	This season	GWEB
0-0	Record	0-0
0-0	ATS	0-0
0-0	O/U	0-0

ATS = covered-didn’t-push · O/U = overs-unders

Model: projects UNCG 77–74 · win probability UNCG 61%

Pick this game

Your picksMy picks ›

Winner

Line

—

no line yet

Total

—

model 151.1

Model edge

—

No market line yet

Public

—

No split yet for this game

The model has not beaten the closing line: with an edge of 3 or more it went 409-367 in 2025-26. Model record

What could decide it: UNCG has more of the edges

UNCG 6, GWEB 2 · 2025-26 numbers until both teams have played three games

UNCGBig

Free throws

Free throw rate: UNCG 42.0, GWEB 30.3. Allowed: UNCG 30.6, GWEB 35.3

UNCGBig

Rebounding

Offensive rebound rate: UNCG 28.1%, GWEB 23.2%. Defensive: UNCG 71.0%, GWEB 63.4%

UNCGSmall

Turnovers

Turnover rate: UNCG 15.0%, GWEB 19.8%. Forced: UNCG 13.6%, GWEB 15.3%

Context

Schedule so far

UNCG has played the 256th-hardest schedule, GWEB the 154th. A record against a soft schedule means less

UNCGSmall

UNCG offense vs GWEB defense

Offense 260th of 366 against a defense 357th, on the model’s ratings

UNCGSmall

Three-pointers

UNCG hits 35.6% and allows 38.0%; GWEB hits 31.0% and allows 36.0%. Threes are 40.2% and 39.8% of their shots

UNCGSmall

Shooting

Effective FG%: UNCG 52.0 and allows 56.2; GWEB 47.8 and allows 57.0

GWEBSmall

Who is back

Minutes back from last season: UNCG 5%, GWEB 35%. Transfers in: UNCG 6, GWEB 3. Early in a season, turnover makes teams harder to price

GWEBSmall

Home court

GWEB at home. This season: GWEB 0-0 at home, UNCG 0-0 away

Context

Tempo

About 70 possessions: UNCG plays 69.3 a game (157th fastest), GWEB 70.8 (84th). Faster games mean more points

Even

GWEB offense vs UNCG defense

Offense 318th of 366 against a defense 299th, on the model’s ratings

Sorted by how lopsided each matchup is, from national ranks. Reasons to look, not picks: the market already knows most of this.

Model vs market

	Market	Model	Model edge
Spread	—	UNCG -3.3	—
Total	—	151.1	—
Projected score	—	UNCG 77.2 · GWEB 73.9

1st-half model

1st-half slate ›

	Model	Actual
1H spread	UNCG -2.1	—
1H total	70.6	—
1H projected score	UNCG 36.3 · GWEB 34.3	—

The 1st-half model is fitted from the full-game model and past halves. ESPN has no 1st-half lines for college games, so there is no market to compare it with.

Showing 2025-26 until both teams have played this season.

ATS

2025-26 season

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
UNCG WLWWL	13-19	41%	5-8	—
GWEB WWWWW	17-13	57%	7-3	—

Venue/role: UNCG away; GWEB home. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

2025-26 season

	O-U	Over %	SU
UNCG OOUUO	22-10	69%	13-19
GWEB UOUUU	15-15	50%	2-28

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Tap for the score and line.

Last 10 games

2025-26

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
UNCG	6-4 60%	6-4 60%	7-3 70%
GWEB	1-9 10%	9-1 90%	4-6 40%

Wins-losses (pushes last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Next 3 games

With how the last meeting with each opponent went

UNC Greensboro

Date	Game	Last meeting
Nov 21	vs UPST	No recent meeting
Nov 23	@ PEPP	No recent meeting
Nov 24	@ UCSB	No recent meeting

Gardner-Webb

Date	Game	Last meeting
Nov 21	@ VMI	L61–64LU
Nov 24	@ BGSU	No recent meeting
Nov 28	vs NCCU	L77–78LO

Last meeting: result, against the spread, over / under. Hover a result for its date.

ATS History · 2025-26

WwinLloss·Wats winLats lossPpush·Owent over the totalUwent under the total

UNC Greensboro

32 games played

Straight up

13-19

41% wins

Against the spread

13-19

41% covers · avg −1.1 pts vs the line

Over / Under

22-10

69% overs · avg +8.1 pts vs the total

Straight up

13-1941%

L L L L L W L L L W L W W L L W L W L L L W W W W L L W L W W L

2 of last 4 wonno streak

Against the spread

13-1941%

L L L L W W L L L W L W W L L L L W L L L W W W W L L W L W W L

2 of last 4 coveredno streak

Over / Under

22-1069%

O O O U O U U O O O U O O O U U O O O O U O U O O O O O O U U O

2 of last 4 overno streak

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Nov 4	@KSU	L 64-93	+18.5	L −10.5	148.5	O 157
Nov 8	vsELON	L 90-92	-4.5	L −6.5	142.5	O 182
Nov 12	@NCSU	L 64-110	+30.5	L −15.5	153.5	O 174
Nov 15	vsAPSU	L 63-69	-1.5	L −7.5	145.5	U 132
Nov 20	@QUC	L 94-101	+7.5	W +0.5	150.5	O 195
Nov 23	vsYSU	W 68-62	+5.5	W +11.5	152.5	U 130
Nov 25	vsDEL	L 60-73	-1.5	L −14.5	142.5	U 133
Nov 26	vsM-OH	L 71-82	+10.5	L −0.5	150.5	O 153
Dec 2	vsUNCA	L 77-82	+4.5	L −0.5	143.5	O 159
Dec 6	@ECU	W 82-78	+7.5	W +11.5	139.5	O 160
Dec 16	vsNCAT	L 65-71	-6.5	L −12.5	147.5	U 136
Jan 1	vsUTC	W 77-72	+2.5	W +7.5	147.5	O 149
Jan 3	vsSAM	W 89-82	+2.5	W +9.5	151.5	O 171
Jan 7	@WOF	L 85-97	+7.5	L −4.5	153.5	O 182
Jan 10	@ETSU	L 60-86	+11.5	L −14.5	148.5	U 146
Jan 15	vsCIT	W 69-66	-9.5	L −6.5	148.5	U 135
Jan 17	vsMER	L 92-102	+5.5	L −4.5	155.5	O 194
Jan 21	@VMI	W 85-78	-2.5	W +4.5	151.5	O 163
Jan 23	vsFUR	L 66-89	+4.5	L −18.5	150.5	O 155
Jan 29	@MER	L 77-95	+10.5	L −7.5	158.5	O 172
Jan 31	@CIT	L 66-71	-2.5	L −7.5	147.5	U 137
Feb 4	vsWCU	W 81-78	+1.5	W +4.5	155.5	O 159
Feb 8	@FUR	W 67-64	+10.5	W +13.5	149.5	U 131
Feb 11	vsVMI	W 92-71	-8.5	W +12.5	150.5	O 163
Feb 14	vsWOF	W 99-89	+2.5	W +12.5	154.5	O 188
Feb 18	@WCU	L 77-91	+5.5	L −8.5	155.5	O 168
Feb 21	vsETSU	L 75-87	+6.5	L −5.5	148.5	O 162
Feb 26	@UTC	W 85-80	+4.5	W +9.5	157.5	O 165
Feb 28	@SAM	L 78-87	+8.5	L −0.5	156.5	O 165
Mar 6	vsVMI	W 84-70	-7.5	W +6.5	154.5	U 154
Mar 7	vsWOF	W 75-72	+4.5	W +7.5	155.5	U 147
Mar 8	vsFUR	L 75-81	+5.5	L −0.5	147.5	O 156

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

KSU

L 64-93

−10.5

ELON

L 90-92

−6.5

NCSU

L 64-110

−15.5

APSU

L 63-69

−7.5

QUC

L 94-101

+0.5

YSU

W 68-62

+11.5

DEL

L 60-73

−14.5

M-OH

L 71-82

−0.5

UNCA

L 77-82

−0.5

ECU

W 82-78

+11.5

NCAT

L 65-71

−12.5

UTC

W 77-72

+7.5

SAM

W 89-82

+9.5

WOF

L 85-97

−4.5

ETSU

L 60-86

−14.5

CIT

W 69-66

−6.5

MER

L 92-102

−4.5

VMI

W 85-78

+4.5

FUR

L 66-89

−18.5

MER

L 77-95

−7.5

CIT

L 66-71

−7.5

WCU

W 81-78

+4.5

FUR

W 67-64

+13.5

VMI

W 92-71

+12.5

WOF

W 99-89

+12.5

WCU

L 77-91

−8.5

ETSU

L 75-87

−5.5

UTC

W 85-80

+9.5

SAM

L 78-87

−0.5

VMI

W 84-70

+6.5

WOF

W 75-72

+7.5

FUR

L 75-81

−0.5

covered 13didn’t cover 19avg −1.1 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

KSU

L 64-93

+8.5

ELON

L 90-92

+39.5

NCSU

L 64-110

+20.5

APSU

L 63-69

−13.5

QUC

L 94-101

+44.5

YSU

W 68-62

−22.5

DEL

L 60-73

−9.5

M-OH

L 71-82

+2.5

UNCA

L 77-82

+15.5

ECU

W 82-78

+20.5

NCAT

L 65-71

−11.5

UTC

W 77-72

+1.5

SAM

W 89-82

+19.5

WOF

L 85-97

+28.5

ETSU

L 60-86

−2.5

CIT

W 69-66

−13.5

MER

L 92-102

+38.5

VMI

W 85-78

+11.5

FUR

L 66-89

+4.5

MER

L 77-95

+13.5

CIT

L 66-71

−10.5

WCU

W 81-78

+3.5

FUR

W 67-64

−18.5

VMI

W 92-71

+12.5

WOF

W 99-89

+33.5

WCU

L 77-91

+12.5

ETSU

L 75-87

+13.5

UTC

W 85-80

+7.5

SAM

L 78-87

+8.5

VMI

W 84-70

−0.5

WOF

W 75-72

−8.5

FUR

L 75-81

+8.5

over 22under 10avg +8.1 ptslonger = bigger margin

Gardner-Webb

30 games played

Straight up

2-28

7% wins

Against the spread

17-13

57% covers · avg −2.9 pts vs the line

Over / Under

15-15

50% overs · avg −1.1 pts vs the total

Straight up

2-287%

L L L L L L L L L L L L L L L L L L W L L L L L L L L L W L

1 of last 4 wonno streak

Against the spread

17-1357%

W L W L L L L L L W L W W W L W L L W L L W W W W W W W W W

9 straight covers4 of last 4 covered

Over / Under

15-1550%

U O O U O U O O O O U U O O U O O U U U O U O O U U O U U U

3 straight unders1 of last 4 over

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Nov 3	@MINN	L 60-87	+28.5	W +1.5	148.5	U 147
Nov 7	@CLEM	L 59-97	+29.5	L −8.5	145.5	O 156
Nov 15	@ELON	L 84-95	+13.5	W +2.5	154.5	O 179
Nov 18	@DEP	L 62-93	+21.5	L −9.5	155.5	U 155
Nov 22	@RICH	L 67-102	+19.5	L −15.5	154.5	O 169
Nov 26	vsNAVY	L 51-84	+10.5	L −22.5	153.5	U 135
Nov 28	vsSELA	L 68-76	+6.5	L −1.5	141.5	O 144
Nov 29	@UNCW	L 62-88	+18.5	L −7.5	147.5	O 150
Dec 3	@QUC	L 74-107	+14.5	L −18.5	161.5	O 181
Dec 6	vsGASO	L 84-88	+10.5	W +6.5	162.5	O 172
Dec 15	vsWOF	L 57-83	+10.5	L −15.5	155.5	U 140
Dec 21	@TENN	L 52-94	+42.5	W +0.5	152.5	U 146
Dec 31	vsCHSO	L 79-89	+12.5	W +2.5	163.5	O 168
Jan 3	@WIN	L 77-88	+23.5	W +12.5	164.5	O 165
Jan 7	@HPU	L 49-104	+26.5	L −28.5	162.5	U 153
Jan 14	vsRAD	L 80-89	+13.5	W +4.5	165.5	O 169
Jan 17	vsPRES	L 55-92	+8.5	L −28.5	145.5	O 147
Jan 21	@LONG	L 56-91	+16.5	L −18.5	155.5	U 147
Jan 23	vsUPST	W 67-65	+9.5	W +11.5	153.5	U 132
Jan 29	@UNCA	L 50-69	+17.5	L −1.5	149.5	U 119
Feb 4	vsLONG	L 66-86	+12.5	L −7.5	147.5	O 152
Feb 7	@PRES	L 62-68	+17.5	W +11.5	145.5	U 130
Feb 12	vsWIN	L 85-103	+20.5	W +2.5	156.5	O 188
Feb 14	vsHPU	L 87-112	+25.5	W +0.5	161.5	O 199
Feb 17	@CHSO	L 66-75	+16.5	W +7.5	161.5	U 141
Feb 19	@RAD	L 70-82	+18.5	W +6.5	162.5	U 152
Feb 26	vsUNCA	L 71-77	+12.5	W +6.5	145.5	O 148
Feb 28	@UPST	L 61-71	+11.5	W +1.5	146.5	U 132
Mar 4	vsUPST	W 65-64	+10.5	W +11.5	143.5	U 129
Mar 6	vsHPU	L 59-81	+27.5	W +5.5	155.5	U 140

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

MINN

L 60-87

+1.5

CLEM

L 59-97

−8.5

ELON

L 84-95

+2.5

DEP

L 62-93

−9.5

RICH

L 67-102

−15.5

NAVY

L 51-84

−22.5

SELA

L 68-76

−1.5

UNCW

L 62-88

−7.5

QUC

L 74-107

−18.5

GASO

L 84-88

+6.5

WOF

L 57-83

−15.5

TENN

L 52-94

+0.5

CHSO

L 79-89

+2.5

WIN

L 77-88

+12.5

HPU

L 49-104

−28.5

RAD

L 80-89

+4.5

PRES

L 55-92

−28.5

LONG

L 56-91

−18.5

UPST

W 67-65

+11.5

UNCA

L 50-69

−1.5

LONG

L 66-86

−7.5

PRES

L 62-68

+11.5

WIN

L 85-103

+2.5

HPU

L 87-112

+0.5

CHSO

L 66-75

+7.5

RAD

L 70-82

+6.5

UNCA

L 71-77

+6.5

UPST

L 61-71

+1.5

UPST

W 65-64

+11.5

HPU

L 59-81

+5.5

covered 17didn’t cover 13avg −2.9 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

MINN

L 60-87

−1.5

CLEM

L 59-97

+10.5

ELON

L 84-95

+24.5

DEP

L 62-93

−0.5

RICH

L 67-102

+14.5

NAVY

L 51-84

−18.5

SELA

L 68-76

+2.5

UNCW

L 62-88

+2.5

QUC

L 74-107

+19.5

GASO

L 84-88

+9.5

WOF

L 57-83

−15.5

TENN

L 52-94

−6.5

CHSO

L 79-89

+4.5

WIN

L 77-88

+0.5

HPU

L 49-104

−9.5

RAD

L 80-89

+3.5

PRES

L 55-92

+1.5

LONG

L 56-91

−8.5

UPST

W 67-65

−21.5

UNCA

L 50-69

−30.5

LONG

L 66-86

+4.5

PRES

L 62-68

−15.5

WIN

L 85-103

+31.5

HPU

L 87-112

+37.5

CHSO

L 66-75

−20.5

RAD

L 70-82

−10.5

UNCA

L 71-77

+2.5

UPST

L 61-71

−14.5

UPST

W 65-64

−14.5

HPU

L 59-81

−15.5

over 15under 15avg −1.1 ptslonger = bigger margin

Line = the team’s closing spread (negative = favored). ATS number = points beyond the line; total number = combined points.

Gardner-Webb has the better starters

Position by position: UNC Greensboro 0, Gardner-Webb 1, even 4

UNC GreensboroBetterGardner-Webb

G B. Stacker TR11.9 pts · 3.5 reb · 1.3 ast Score 47

GWEBSmall

G J. Hudson10.6 pts · 3.8 reb · 1.5 ast Score 62

G C. Grant TR2.2 pts · 1.3 reb · 0.4 ast Score 9

Even

G A. Talbert6.7 pts · 1.9 reb · 1.3 ast Score 10

F Z. Fitch TR6.1 pts · 5.3 reb · 0.9 ast Score 31

Even

G J. Ferere6.5 pts · 3 reb · 0.7 ast Score 32

F V. Collins TR1 pts · 3 reb · 0.3 ast Not ranked

No call

F M. Pocknett TR3.7 pts · 4 reb · 0.3 ast Score 14

F A. Beljan TR2.2 pts · 0.8 reb · 0.2 ast Not ranked

No call

C S. Nosakhare TR0.8 pts · 1.3 reb · 0.3 ast Not ranked

UNC GreensboroBetterGardner-Webb

UNCG offense260th of 366 · -8.0

UNCGSmall

GWEB defense357th of 366 · -10.2

UNCG defense299th of 366 · -7.7

Even

GWEB offense318th of 366 · -10.4

Backcourt-2.1 · 2 players

UNCGSmall

Backcourt-4.1 · 3 players

Frontcourt-1.9 · 3 players

Even

Frontcourt-2.0 · 2 players

Bench-0.5 · 3 players

Even

Bench-0.9 · 1 player

Score, worst to bestUNCG betterGWEB betterTR transfer · NEW no Division I numbers

Projected starters: college teams publish no depth chart, so these come from minutes played, and a freshman or a new starter can change them. The score is the share of ranked players at the position that player is ahead of. Numbers are this season's once a player has 30 minutes, 2025-26's before that. Bench is the next five by minutes. Tap a player for the full numbers.

Depth chart

Projected rotation by position, starters outlined

UNC Greensboro

Guards

B. Stacker29 min · TRC. Grant11 min · TRC. Bailey6 minR. Greer6 min · TRB. MishakNewJ. ManiNew

Forwards

Z. Fitch23 min · TRV. Collins7 min · TRA. Beljan7 min · TRC. Bynum4 minC. LaFrentzNew

Gardner-Webb

Guards

J. Hudson27 minA. Talbert25 minJ. Ferere18 minS. BrownNewD. DanielNewB. LutherNew

Forwards

M. Pocknett14 min · TRJ. Skipper8 min · TRC. OkparaNew

Centers

S. Nosakhare9 min · TRG. TropnasNewB. RutsinduraNew

In order of minutes, from rosters as of today. ESPN lists players only as guards, forwards or centers, and no injury report exists for college basketball, so a player who is out may still show here.

Showing 2025-26 until both teams have played this season.

Matchup stats

2025-26 · rank among 365 teams

ChartTable

Scoring

Points per game

UNCG76.6 #128

GWEB66.2 #343

Points per possession

UNCG1.11 #125

GWEB0.94 #360

Pace (possessions)

UNCG69.3 #157

GWEB70.8 #84

Shooting

Effective FG%

UNCG52.0 #146

GWEB47.8 #317

3-point %

UNCG35.6 #80

GWEB31.0 #320

3-point attempt rate

UNCG40.2 #165

GWEB39.8 #174

Free throw rate

UNCG42.0 #31

GWEB30.3 #302

Possessions

Turnover rate

UNCG15.0 #63

GWEB19.8 #347

Offensive rebound rate

UNCG28.1 #259

GWEB23.2 #350

Assists per game

UNCG12.1 #283

GWEB9.7 #362

Defense

Points allowed

UNCG81.9 #341

GWEB86.7 #362

Points allowed per possession

UNCG1.18 #347

GWEB1.22 #361

Opponent effective FG%

UNCG56.2 #347

GWEB57.0 #356

Opponent 3-point %

UNCG38.0 #357

GWEB36.0 #300

Turnovers forced

UNCG13.6 #343

GWEB15.3 #265

Defensive rebound rate

UNCG71.0 #104

GWEB63.4 #355

Steals per game

UNCG5.5 #301

GWEB6.1 #224

Blocks per game

UNCG1.9 #350

GWEB2.4 #309

UNCG		GWEB
Scoring
76.6 #128	Points per game	66.2 #343
1.11 #125	Points per possession	0.94 #360
69.3 #157	Pace (possessions)	70.8 #84
Shooting
52.0 #146	Effective FG%	47.8 #317
35.6 #80	3-point %	31.0 #320
40.2 #165	3-point attempt rate	39.8 #174
42.0 #31	Free throw rate	30.3 #302
Possessions
15.0 #63	Turnover rate	19.8 #347
28.1 #259	Offensive rebound rate	23.2 #350
12.1 #283	Assists per game	9.7 #362
Defense
81.9 #341	Points allowed	86.7 #362
1.18 #347	Points allowed per possession	1.22 #361
56.2 #347	Opponent effective FG%	57.0 #356
38.0 #357	Opponent 3-point %	36.0 #300
13.6 #343	Turnovers forced	15.3 #265
71.0 #104	Defensive rebound rate	63.4 #355
5.5 #301	Steals per game	6.1 #224
1.9 #350	Blocks per game	2.4 #309

From the box scores. A longer bar is a better national rank, on every row; the better team's bar is solid. A green rank is near the top of Division I, a red one near the bottom. Pace and 3-point rate are styles, so they have no better side.

UNC Greensboro

13-19 in 2025-26 overall · 11-10 in conference · Southern Conference

Last five, 2025-26

Lvs Furman75–81
Wvs Wofford75–72
Wvs VMI84–70
L@ Samford78–87
W@ Chattanooga85–80

A week or more of rest.

Gardner-Webb

2-28 in 2025-26 overall · 2-16 in conference · Big South Conference

Last five, 2025-26

Lvs High Point59–81
Wvs SC Upstate65–64
L@ SC Upstate61–71
Lvs UNC Asheville71–77
L@ Radford70–82

A week or more of rest.

UNC Greensboro Spartans at Gardner-Webb Runnin' Bulldogs

What could decide it: UNCG has more of the edges

Market

Model vs market

1st-half model

ATS

Totals

Last 10 games

Next 3 games

ATS History · 2025-26

UNC Greensboro

Gardner-Webb

Gardner-Webb has the better starters

Depth chart

Matchup stats

UNC Greensboro

Gardner-Webb