UL Monroe Warhawks at LSU Tigers: Model Line and Edge

Wed, Nov 18, 8:00 PM ETPete Maravich Assembly Center · at LSU

#51LSULSU

LineNo line yet

Total—

Season records: UL Monroe and LSU
ULM	This season	LSU
0-0	Record	0-0
0-0	ATS	0-0
0-0	O/U	0-0

ATS = covered-didn’t-push · O/U = overs-unders

Model: projects LSU 94–63 · win probability LSU 100%

Pick this game

Your picksMy picks ›

Winner

Line

—

no line yet

Total

—

model 156.9

Model edge

—

No market line yet

Public

—

No split yet for this game

The model has not beaten the closing line: with an edge of 3 or more it went 409-367 in 2025-26. Model record

What could decide it: LSU has more of the edges

ULM 1, LSU 6 · 2025-26 numbers until both teams have played three games

LSUBig

LSU offense vs ULM defense

Offense 37th of 366 against a defense 361st, on the model’s ratings

LSUBig

ULM offense vs LSU defense

Offense 332nd of 366 against a defense 77th, on the model’s ratings

LSUBig

Shooting

Effective FG%: ULM 47.8 and allows 57.1; LSU 52.8 and allows 50.9

LSUBig

Rebounding

Offensive rebound rate: ULM 25.1%, LSU 33.1%. Defensive: ULM 64.6%, LSU 68.3%

Context

Schedule so far

ULM has played the 216th-hardest schedule, LSU the 49th. A record against a soft schedule means less

ULMSmall

Free throws

Free throw rate: ULM 38.8, LSU 40.9. Allowed: ULM 27.7, LSU 37.8

LSUSmall

Three-pointers

ULM hits 32.2% and allows 36.9%; LSU hits 33.1% and allows 35.4%. Threes are 41.9% and 34.5% of their shots

LSUSmall

Home court

LSU at home. This season: LSU 0-0 at home, ULM 0-0 away

Context

Tempo

About 71 possessions: ULM plays 71.3 a game (58th fastest), LSU 70.5 (95th). Faster games mean more points

Even

Turnovers

Turnover rate: ULM 16.9%, LSU 15.5%. Forced: ULM 15.7%, LSU 14.0%

Even

Who is back

Minutes back from last season: ULM 1%, LSU 0%. Transfers in: ULM 6, LSU 6. Early in a season, turnover makes teams harder to price

Sorted by how lopsided each matchup is, from national ranks. Reasons to look, not picks: the market already knows most of this.

Model vs market

	Market	Model	Model edge
Spread	—	LSU -31.3	—
Total	—	156.9	—
Projected score	—	ULM 62.8 · LSU 94.1

1st-half model

1st-half slate ›

	Model	Actual
1H spread	LSU -18.5	—
1H total	73.3	—
1H projected score	ULM 27.4 · LSU 45.9	—

The 1st-half model is fitted from the full-game model and past halves. ESPN has no 1st-half lines for college games, so there is no market to compare it with.

Showing 2025-26 until both teams have played this season.

ATS

2025-26 season

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
ULM WWLWW	17-12	59%	9-7	—
LSU WLLLW	18-14	56%	7-10	—

Venue/role: ULM away; LSU home. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

2025-26 season

	O-U	Over %	SU
ULM UOUUO	20-9	69%	2-28
LSU OUOOO	16-16	50%	15-17

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Tap for the score and line.

Last 10 games

2025-26

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
ULM	1-9 10%	7-3 70%	6-4 60%
LSU	1-9 10%	5-5 50%	6-4 60%

Wins-losses (pushes last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Next 3 games

With how the last meeting with each opponent went

UL Monroe

Date	Game	Last meeting
Nov 24	vs HCU	L61–72LU
Nov 29	@ TULN	L64–80LU
Dec 2	@ LAM	L66–79LO

LSU

Date	Game	Last meeting
Nov 21	vs QUC	No recent meeting
Nov 25	vs ASU	No recent meeting
Nov 26	vs SMU	W89–77WO

Last meeting: result, against the spread, over / under. Hover a result for its date.

Recent meetings

Since 2021-22

ULM 0–2 LSULSU leads · 2 games since 2021-22 · LSU has won the last 2 meetings · ULM 0-2 ATS

Date	Result	Line	Covered
Nov 6, 2024-25	ULM 60 @ LSU 95	LSU -22.5	LSU W
Nov 9, 2021-22	ULM 39 @ LSU 101	LSU -20	LSU W

ATS History · 2025-26

WwinLloss·Wats winLats lossPpush·Owent over the totalUwent under the total

UL Monroe

30 games played

Straight up

2-28

7% wins

Against the spread

17-12

59% covers · avg −0.1 pts vs the line

Over / Under

20-9

69% overs · avg +6.4 pts vs the total

Straight up

2-287%

L L L L L L W L L L L L L L L L L L L L L W L L L L L L L L

8 straight losses0 of last 4 won

Against the spread

17-1259%

L W L L W L W L W W L W L W W W L L W–W W L L W W W L W W

2 straight covers3 of last 4 covered

Over / Under

20-969%

O O U O O O U O O O O O O O O U U O U–O O U O O U O U U O

2 of last 4 overno streak

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Nov 3	@NIU	L 82-102	+7.5	L −12.5	147.5	O 184
Nov 7	@MISS	L 65-86	+37.5	W +16.5	149.5	O 151
Nov 13	@HCU	L 61-72	+8.5	L −2.5	143.5	U 133
Nov 17	vsLAM	L 66-79	+11.5	L −1.5	140.5	O 145
Nov 22	vsMORE	L 80-83	+6.5	W +3.5	145.5	O 163
Nov 23	@ETSU	L 55-97	+19.5	L −22.5	146.5	O 152
Dec 3	vsMVSU	W 66-52	-9.5	W +4.5	149.5	U 118
Dec 7	@SFA	L 76-96	+19.5	L −0.5	142.5	O 172
Dec 13	@MIA	L 79-104	+35.5	W +10.5	153.5	O 183
Dec 17	vsUSA	L 92-96	+9.5	W +5.5	148.5	O 188
Dec 20	vsUL	L 62-76	+1.5	L −12.5	136.5	O 138
Dec 28	@KSU	L 85-94	+32.5	W +23.5	169.5	O 179
Jan 1	vsUSM	L 73-87	+9.5	L −4.5	152.5	O 160
Jan 3	vsTXST	L 79-84	+10.5	W +5.5	150.5	O 163
Jan 8	@UL	L 79-85	+7.5	W +1.5	139.5	O 164
Jan 10	@USM	L 60-70	+14.5	W +4.5	155.5	U 130
Jan 17	vsGAST	L 57-77	+6.5	L −13.5	155.5	U 134
Jan 22	@MRSH	L 60-115	+18.5	L −36.5	160.5	O 175
Jan 23	@APP	L 43-59	+16.5	W +0.5	144.5	U 102
Jan 30	vsGASO	L 76-79	—	—	—	—
Feb 1	vsCCU	L 79-83	+10.5	W +6.5	146.5	O 162
Feb 4	@ODU	W 85-79	+14.5	W +20.5	154.5	O 164
Feb 7	vsBALL	L 68-73	+4.5	L −0.5	143.5	U 141
Feb 11	@ARST	L 70-103	+20.5	L −12.5	162.5	O 173
Feb 14	@TXST	L 84-95	+14.5	W +3.5	149.5	O 179
Feb 18	vsTROY	L 76-77	+17.5	W +16.5	153.5	U 153
Feb 21	vsARST	L 94-102	+15.5	W +7.5	165.5	O 196
Feb 25	@USA	L 54-89	+14.5	L −20.5	153.5	U 143
Feb 27	@TROY	L 65-80	+18.5	W +3.5	153.5	U 145
Mar 3	vsODU	L 80-87	+9.5	W +2.5	157.5	O 167

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

NIU

L 82-102

−12.5

MISS

L 65-86

+16.5

HCU

L 61-72

−2.5

LAM

L 66-79

−1.5

L 80-83

+3.5

ETSU

L 55-97

−22.5

MVSU

W 66-52

+4.5

SFA

L 76-96

−0.5

MIA

L 79-104

+10.5

USA

L 92-96

+5.5

L 62-76

−12.5

KSU

L 85-94

+23.5

USM

L 73-87

−4.5

TXST

L 79-84

+5.5

L 79-85

+1.5

USM

L 60-70

+4.5

GAST

L 57-77

−13.5

MRSH

L 60-115

−36.5

APP

L 43-59

+0.5

CCU

L 79-83

+6.5

ODU

W 85-79

+20.5

BALL

L 68-73

−0.5

ARST

L 70-103

−12.5

TXST

L 84-95

+3.5

TROY

L 76-77

+16.5

ARST

L 94-102

+7.5

USA

L 54-89

−20.5

TROY

L 65-80

+3.5

ODU

L 80-87

+2.5

covered 17didn’t cover 12avg −0.1 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

NIU

L 82-102

+36.5

MISS

L 65-86

+1.5

HCU

L 61-72

−10.5

LAM

L 66-79

+4.5

L 80-83

+17.5

ETSU

L 55-97

+5.5

MVSU

W 66-52

−31.5

SFA

L 76-96

+29.5

MIA

L 79-104

+29.5

USA

L 92-96

+39.5

L 62-76

+1.5

KSU

L 85-94

+9.5

USM

L 73-87

+7.5

TXST

L 79-84

+12.5

L 79-85

+24.5

USM

L 60-70

−25.5

GAST

L 57-77

−21.5

MRSH

L 60-115

+14.5

APP

L 43-59

−42.5

CCU

L 79-83

+15.5

ODU

W 85-79

+9.5

BALL

L 68-73

−2.5

ARST

L 70-103

+10.5

TXST

L 84-95

+29.5

TROY

L 76-77

−0.5

ARST

L 94-102

+30.5

USA

L 54-89

−10.5

TROY

L 65-80

−8.5

ODU

L 80-87

+9.5

over 20under 9avg +6.4 ptslonger = bigger margin

LSU

32 games played

Straight up

15-17

47% wins

Against the spread

18-14

56% covers · avg −0.7 pts vs the line

Over / Under

16-16

50% overs · avg +4.6 pts vs the total

Straight up

15-1747%

W W W W W W W W L W W W W L L L L W L L L W L L L L L W L L L L

4 straight losses0 of last 4 won

Against the spread

18-1456%

W W L L W L W W L W L L W W L W W W L W L W L L W W W W L L L W

1 of last 4 coveredno streak

Over / Under

16-1650%

O U O O O U O U U O U O U U O U U U U O U O U U U O O O U O O O

3 straight overs3 of last 4 over

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Nov 5	vsTAR	W 96-60	-15.5	W +20.5	148.5	O 156
Nov 10	vsNOLA	W 93-58	-19.5	W +15.5	162.5	U 151
Nov 13	vsFIU	W 98-81	-21.5	L −4.5	158.5	O 179
Nov 18	vsALCN	W 107-81	-32.5	L −6.5	155.5	O 188
Nov 21	vsOMA	W 99-73	-20.5	W +5.5	163.5	O 172
Nov 28	vsDRKE	W 71-62	-11.5	L −2.5	151.5	U 133
Nov 29	vsDEP	W 96-63	-5.5	W +27.5	152.5	O 159
Dec 3	@BC	W 78-69	-7.5	W +1.5	149.5	U 147
Dec 7	vsTTU	L 58-82	+5.5	L −18.5	154.5	U 140
Dec 13	vsSMU	W 89-77	-1.5	W +10.5	158.5	O 166
Dec 19	vsSELA	W 78-65	-24.5	L −11.5	144.5	U 143
Dec 22	vsPV	W 104-90	-29.5	L −15.5	161.5	O 194
Dec 29	vsUSM	W 90-62	-21.5	W +6.5	154.5	U 152
Jan 3	@TA&M	L 72-75	+5.5	W +2.5	168.5	U 147
Jan 6	vsSC	L 68-78	-7.5	L −17.5	145.5	O 146
Jan 10	@VAN	L 73-84	+13.5	W +2.5	159.5	U 157
Jan 14	vsUK	L 74-75	+3.5	W +2.5	151.5	U 149
Jan 17	vsMIZ	W 78-70	-1.5	W +6.5	148.5	U 148
Jan 20	@FLA	L 61-79	+15.5	L −2.5	158.5	U 140
Jan 24	@ARK	L 81-85	+10.5	W +6.5	163.5	O 166
Jan 28	vsMSST	L 66-80	-7.5	L −21.5	154.5	U 146
Jan 31	@SC	W 92-87	-2.5	W +2.5	147.5	O 179
Feb 7	vsUGA	L 71-83	+1.5	L −10.5	161.5	U 154
Feb 10	vsARK	L 62-91	+4.5	L −24.5	159.5	U 153
Feb 14	@TENN	L 63-73	+14.5	W +4.5	143.5	U 136
Feb 17	@TEX	L 85-88	+10.5	W +7.5	150.5	O 173
Feb 21	vsALA	L 83-90	+7.5	W +0.5	172.5	O 173
Feb 25	@MISS	W 106-99	+2.5	W +9.5	147.5	O 205
Feb 28	vsOU	L 67-83	-1.5	L −17.5	155.5	U 150
Mar 3	@AUB	L 74-88	+10.5	L −3.5	155.5	O 162
Mar 7	vsTA&M	L 91-94	+2.5	L −0.5	161.5	O 185
Mar 11	vsUK	L 82-87	+8.5	W +3.5	151.5	O 169

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

TAR

W 96-60

+20.5

NOLA

W 93-58

+15.5

FIU

W 98-81

−4.5

ALCN

W 107-81

−6.5

OMA

W 99-73

+5.5

DRKE

W 71-62

−2.5

DEP

W 96-63

+27.5

W 78-69

+1.5

TTU

L 58-82

−18.5

SMU

W 89-77

+10.5

SELA

W 78-65

−11.5

W 104-90

−15.5

USM

W 90-62

+6.5

TA&M

L 72-75

+2.5

L 68-78

−17.5

VAN

L 73-84

+2.5

L 74-75

+2.5

MIZ

W 78-70

+6.5

FLA

L 61-79

−2.5

ARK

L 81-85

+6.5

MSST

L 66-80

−21.5

W 92-87

+2.5

UGA

L 71-83

−10.5

ARK

L 62-91

−24.5

TENN

L 63-73

+4.5

TEX

L 85-88

+7.5

ALA

L 83-90

+0.5

MISS

W 106-99

+9.5

L 67-83

−17.5

AUB

L 74-88

−3.5

TA&M

L 91-94

−0.5

L 82-87

+3.5

covered 18didn’t cover 14avg −0.7 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

TAR

W 96-60

+7.5

NOLA

W 93-58

−11.5

FIU

W 98-81

+20.5

ALCN

W 107-81

+32.5

OMA

W 99-73

+8.5

DRKE

W 71-62

−18.5

DEP

W 96-63

+6.5

W 78-69

−2.5

TTU

L 58-82

−14.5

SMU

W 89-77

+7.5

SELA

W 78-65

−1.5

W 104-90

+32.5

USM

W 90-62

−2.5

TA&M

L 72-75

−21.5

L 68-78

+0.5

VAN

L 73-84

−2.5

L 74-75

−2.5

MIZ

W 78-70

−0.5

FLA

L 61-79

−18.5

ARK

L 81-85

+2.5

MSST

L 66-80

−8.5

W 92-87

+31.5

UGA

L 71-83

−7.5

ARK

L 62-91

−6.5

TENN

L 63-73

−7.5

TEX

L 85-88

+22.5

ALA

L 83-90

+0.5

MISS

W 106-99

+57.5

L 67-83

−5.5

AUB

L 74-88

+6.5

TA&M

L 91-94

+23.5

L 82-87

+17.5

over 16under 16avg +4.6 ptslonger = bigger margin

Line = the team’s closing spread (negative = favored). ATS number = points beyond the line; total number = combined points.

LSU has the better starters

Position by position: UL Monroe 0, LSU 2, even 3

UL MonroeBetterLSU

G D. Anderson TR5.1 pts · 1.7 reb · 0.6 ast Score 23

LSUBig

G D. Dent TR13.3 pts · 2.9 reb · 7.6 ast Score 95

G K. London TR5.6 pts · 1.4 reb · 1 ast Score 5

Even

G A. Nunez TR9.6 pts · 2.1 reb · 2.6 ast Score 17

G Q. McPherson TR4.4 pts · 1.5 reb · 0.5 ast Score 60

LSUSmall

G S. Clark TR11.5 pts · 2.3 reb · 2 ast Score 87

G R. Cowherd TR0.9 pts · 0 reb · 0.1 ast Not ranked

No call

G A. Bashir TR13.2 pts · 2.2 reb · 2.3 ast Score 92

C J. Lafleur TR1 pts · 2.5 reb · 0 ast Not ranked

No call

F M. Dioubate TR8.8 pts · 5.5 reb · 1 ast Score 94

UL MonroeBetterLSU

ULM offense332nd of 366 · -10.8

LSUBig

LSU defense77th of 366 · +0.5

ULM defense361st of 366 · -11.5

LSUBig

LSU offense37th of 366 · +5.0

Backcourt-4.2 · 4 players

LSUBig

Backcourt+5.8 · 4 players

Frontcourt-0.3 · 1 player

LSUBig

Frontcourt+3.1 · 1 player

Bench-0.1 · 2 players

Even

Bench+0.4 · 1 player

Score, worst to bestULM betterLSU betterTR transfer · NEW no Division I numbers

Projected starters: college teams publish no depth chart, so these come from minutes played, and a freshman or a new starter can change them. The score is the share of ranked players at the position that player is ahead of. Numbers are this season's once a player has 30 minutes, 2025-26's before that. Bench is the next five by minutes. Tap a player for the full numbers.

Depth chart

Projected rotation by position, starters outlined

UL Monroe

Guards

D. Anderson16 min · TRK. London14 min · TRQ. McPherson11 min · TRR. Cowherd5 min · TRC. Campbell1 minP. TillmanNew

Forwards

L. Carr2 min · TRG. ChamberlainNewJ. RegisteNewG. SchoentgenNew

Centers

J. Lafleur6 min · TRM. AdonryNewZ. NdanckyNew

LSU

Guards

D. Dent34 min · TRA. Nunez29 min · TRS. Clark29 min · TRA. Bashir25 min · TRD. Ugochukwu16 min · TRL. StansburyNew

Forwards

M. Dioubate22 min · TRS. NiangNewJ. BenderNew

Centers

B. DessertNewG. LevyNewS. PearsonNewM. RuzicNew

In order of minutes, from rosters as of today. ESPN lists players only as guards, forwards or centers, and no injury report exists for college basketball, so a player who is out may still show here.

Showing 2025-26 until both teams have played this season.

Matchup stats

2025-26 · rank among 365 teams

ChartTable

Scoring

Points per game

ULM71.7 #255

LSU81.4 #41

Points per possession

ULM1.00 #321

LSU1.15 #60

Pace (possessions)

ULM71.3 #58

LSU70.5 #95

Shooting

Effective FG%

ULM47.8 #316

LSU52.8 #111

3-point %

ULM32.2 #270

LSU33.1 #225

3-point attempt rate

ULM41.9 #135

LSU34.5 #286

Free throw rate

ULM38.8 #85

LSU40.9 #49

Possessions

Turnover rate

ULM16.9 #196

LSU15.5 #106

Offensive rebound rate

ULM25.1 #338

LSU33.1 #87

Assists per game

ULM11.9 #288

LSU14.7 #106

Defense

Points allowed

ULM85.4 #361

LSU78.5 #279

Points allowed per possession

ULM1.20 #358

LSU1.12 #270

Opponent effective FG%

ULM57.1 #358

LSU50.9 #150

Opponent 3-point %

ULM36.9 #343

LSU35.4 #271

Turnovers forced

ULM15.7 #235

LSU14.0 #335

Defensive rebound rate

ULM64.6 #345

LSU68.3 #239

Steals per game

ULM6.0 #237

LSU6.0 #240

Blocks per game

ULM3.2 #189

LSU3.9 #87

ULM		LSU
Scoring
71.7 #255	Points per game	81.4 #41
1.00 #321	Points per possession	1.15 #60
71.3 #58	Pace (possessions)	70.5 #95
Shooting
47.8 #316	Effective FG%	52.8 #111
32.2 #270	3-point %	33.1 #225
41.9 #135	3-point attempt rate	34.5 #286
38.8 #85	Free throw rate	40.9 #49
Possessions
16.9 #196	Turnover rate	15.5 #106
25.1 #338	Offensive rebound rate	33.1 #87
11.9 #288	Assists per game	14.7 #106
Defense
85.4 #361	Points allowed	78.5 #279
1.20 #358	Points allowed per possession	1.12 #270
57.1 #358	Opponent effective FG%	50.9 #150
36.9 #343	Opponent 3-point %	35.4 #271
15.7 #235	Turnovers forced	14.0 #335
64.6 #345	Defensive rebound rate	68.3 #239
6.0 #237	Steals per game	6.0 #240
3.2 #189	Blocks per game	3.9 #87

From the box scores. A longer bar is a better national rank, on every row; the better team's bar is solid. A green rank is near the top of Division I, a red one near the bottom. Pace and 3-point rate are styles, so they have no better side.

UL Monroe

2-28 in 2025-26 overall · 1-18 in conference · Sun Belt Conference

Last five, 2025-26

Lvs Old Dominion80–87
L@ Troy65–80
L@ South Alabama54–89
Lvs Arkansas St94–102
Lvs Troy76–77

A week or more of rest.

LSU

15-17 in 2025-26 overall · 3-16 in conference · Southeastern Conference

Last five, 2025-26

Lvs Kentucky82–87
Lvs Texas A&M91–94
L@ Auburn74–88
Lvs Oklahoma67–83
W@ Ole Miss106–99

A week or more of rest.

UL Monroe Warhawks at LSU Tigers

What could decide it: LSU has more of the edges

Market

Model vs market

1st-half model

ATS

Totals

Last 10 games

Next 3 games

Recent meetings

ATS History · 2025-26

UL Monroe

LSU

LSU has the better starters

Depth chart

Matchup stats

UL Monroe

LSU