New Mexico Lobos at Wichita State Shockers: Model Line and Edge

Sat, Nov 21, 12:00 AM ETCharles Koch Arena · at Wichita St

LineNo line yet

Total—

Season records: New Mexico and Wichita St
UNM	This season	WICH
0-0	Record	0-0
0-0	ATS	0-0
0-0	O/U	0-0

ATS = covered-didn’t-push · O/U = overs-unders

Model: projects WICH 78–75 · win probability WICH 58%

Pick this game

Your picksMy picks ›

Winner

Line

—

no line yet

Total

—

model 153.1

Model edge

—

No market line yet

Public

—

No split yet for this game

The model has not beaten the closing line: with an edge of 3 or more it went 409-367 in 2025-26. Model record

What could decide it: UNM has more of the edges

UNM 3, WICH 2 · 2025-26 numbers until both teams have played three games

UNMSmall

Turnovers

Turnover rate: UNM 14.9%, WICH 15.0%. Forced: UNM 19.0%, WICH 15.7%

UNMSmall

Three-pointers

UNM hits 35.6% and allows 30.5%; WICH hits 33.5% and allows 31.5%. Threes are 41.9% and 33.9% of their shots

UNMSmall

Shooting

Effective FG%: UNM 53.5 and allows 49.5; WICH 49.4 and allows 47.2

WICHSmall

Rebounding

Offensive rebound rate: UNM 30.6%, WICH 38.0%. Defensive: UNM 72.3%, WICH 71.2%

WICHSmall

Home court

WICH at home. This season: WICH 0-0 at home, UNM 0-0 away

Context

Tempo

About 70 possessions: UNM plays 70.7 a game (87th fastest), WICH 69.3 (164th). Faster games mean more points

Even

WICH offense vs UNM defense

Offense 78th of 366 against a defense 103rd, on the model’s ratings

Even

Who is back

Minutes back from last season: UNM 42%, WICH 55%. Transfers in: UNM 3, WICH 4. Early in a season, turnover makes teams harder to price

Even

UNM offense vs WICH defense

Offense 72nd of 366 against a defense 82nd, on the model’s ratings

Context

Schedule so far

UNM has played the 97th-hardest schedule, WICH the 106th. A record against a soft schedule means less

Even

Free throws

Free throw rate: UNM 35.8, WICH 36.0. Allowed: UNM 33.3, WICH 34.3

Sorted by how lopsided each matchup is, from national ranks. Reasons to look, not picks: the market already knows most of this.

Model vs market

	Market	Model	Model edge
Spread	—	WICH -2.2	—
Total	—	153.1	—
Projected score	—	UNM 75.4 · WICH 77.7

1st-half model

1st-half slate ›

	Model	Actual
1H spread	WICH -1.2	—
1H total	71.6	—
1H projected score	UNM 35.2 · WICH 36.4	—

The 1st-half model is fitted from the full-game model and past halves. ESPN has no 1st-half lines for college games, so there is no market to compare it with.

Showing 2025-26 until both teams have played this season.

ATS

2025-26 season

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
UNM WWWWL	20-16	56%	7-5	—
WICH WLLWW	23-12	66%	12-5	—

Venue/role: UNM away; WICH home. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

2025-26 season

	O-U	Over %	SU
UNM UOUUU	23-13	64%	25-11
WICH UUUOO	15-20	43%	23-12

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Tap for the score and line.

Last 10 games

2025-26

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
UNM	5-5 50%	6-4 60%	5-5 50%
WICH	8-2 80%	7-3 70%	5-5 50%

Wins-losses (pushes last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Next 3 games

With how the last meeting with each opponent went

New Mexico

Date	Game	Last meeting
Nov 25	vs MVSU	No recent meeting
Nov 29	vs USU	L90–94WO
Dec 5	vs NMSU	L68–76LO

Wichita St

Date	Game	Last meeting
Nov 23	vs AMCC	No recent meeting
Nov 27	@ UK	No recent meeting
Nov 30	vs SEMO	No recent meeting

Last meeting: result, against the spread, over / under. Hover a result for its date.

ATS History · 2025-26

WwinLloss·Wats winLats lossPpush·Owent over the totalUwent under the total

New Mexico

36 games played

Straight up

25-11

69% wins

Against the spread

20-16

56% covers · avg +2.5 pts vs the line

Over / Under

23-13

64% overs · avg +1.3 pts vs the total

Straight up

25-1169%

W W W L L W W W W W W L W W W W L W W W W L L W W W L W L L W L W W W L

3 of last 4 wonno streak

Against the spread

20-1656%

L W L L L W L W W W W L W W W W W L L W L L L W W L L W L W L W W W W L

3 of last 4 coveredno streak

Over / Under

23-1364%

U U O O O O O O O U O U U O O O O O O U O U O U O O U O O O O U O U U U

3 straight unders1 of last 4 over

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Nov 5	vsETAM	W 76-54	-22.5	L −0.5	143.5	U 130
Nov 8	vsUTA	W 74-56	-13.5	W +4.5	145.5	U 130
Nov 11	vsUCR	W 82-68	-19.5	L −5.5	141.5	O 150
Nov 15	@NMSU	L 68-76	-3.5	L −11.5	139.5	O 144
Nov 20	vsNEB	L 72-84	+8.5	L −3.5	151.5	O 156
Nov 21	vsMSST	W 80-78	+6.5	W +8.5	151.5	O 158
Nov 26	vsALST	W 93-87	-19.5	L −13.5	148.5	O 180
Dec 6	vsSCU	W 98-71	-1.5	W +25.5	153.5	O 169
Dec 10	@VCU	W 81-78	+8.5	W +11.5	157.5	O 159
Dec 14	vsFGCU	W 75-59	-15.5	W +0.5	159.5	U 134
Dec 20	vsSJSU	W 88-65	-16.5	W +6.5	152.5	O 153
Dec 30	@BOIS	L 53-62	+5.5	L −3.5	146.5	U 115
Jan 3	vsWYO	W 78-58	-7.5	W +12.5	151.5	U 136
Jan 6	@CSU	W 80-70	-1.5	W +8.5	143.5	O 150
Jan 10	@AF	W 91-49	-16.5	W +25.5	138.5	O 140
Jan 13	vsGCU	W 87-64	-6.5	W +16.5	146.5	O 151
Jan 17	@SDSU	L 79-83	+5.5	W +1.5	148.5	O 162
Jan 21	vsFRES	W 83-74	-15.5	L −6.5	151.5	O 157
Jan 24	vsNEV	W 80-73	-8.5	L −1.5	150.5	O 153
Jan 27	@UNLV	W 89-61	-3.5	W +24.5	155.5	U 150
Jan 31	@SJSU	W 90-80	-15.5	L −5.5	148.5	O 170
Feb 4	vsUSU	L 66-86	-1.5	L −21.5	156.5	U 152
Feb 7	vsBOIS	L 90-91	-4.5	L −5.5	152.5	O 181
Feb 11	@GCU	W 70-64	+1.5	W +7.5	148.5	U 134
Feb 17	vsAF	W 98-61	-28.5	W +8.5	148.5	O 159
Feb 21	@FRES	W 80-78	-9.5	L −7.5	156.5	O 158
Feb 24	@NEV	L 60-67	+1.5	L −5.5	148.5	U 127
Feb 28	vsSDSU	W 81-76	-1.5	W +3.5	150.5	O 157
Mar 4	vsCSU	L 74-82	-8.5	L −16.5	150.5	O 156
Mar 7	@USU	L 90-94	+7.5	W +3.5	155.5	O 184
Mar 12	vsSJSU	W 93-77	-16.5	L −0.5	154.5	O 170
Mar 13	vsSDSU	L 62-64	+2.5	W +0.5	150.5	U 126
Mar 18	vsSHSU	W 107-83	-11.5	W +12.5	162.5	O 190
Mar 22	vsGW	W 86-61	-6.5	W +18.5	161.5	U 147
Mar 24	vsJOES	W 84-69	-10.5	W +4.5	155.5	U 153
Apr 2	vsTLSA	L 69-74	-2.5	L −7.5	161.5	U 143

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

ETAM

W 76-54

−0.5

UTA

W 74-56

+4.5

UCR

W 82-68

−5.5

NMSU

L 68-76

−11.5

NEB

L 72-84

−3.5

MSST

W 80-78

+8.5

ALST

W 93-87

−13.5

SCU

W 98-71

+25.5

VCU

W 81-78

+11.5

FGCU

W 75-59

+0.5

SJSU

W 88-65

+6.5

BOIS

L 53-62

−3.5

WYO

W 78-58

+12.5

CSU

W 80-70

+8.5

W 91-49

+25.5

GCU

W 87-64

+16.5

SDSU

L 79-83

+1.5

FRES

W 83-74

−6.5

NEV

W 80-73

−1.5

UNLV

W 89-61

+24.5

SJSU

W 90-80

−5.5

USU

L 66-86

−21.5

BOIS

L 90-91

−5.5

GCU

W 70-64

+7.5

W 98-61

+8.5

FRES

W 80-78

−7.5

NEV

L 60-67

−5.5

SDSU

W 81-76

+3.5

CSU

L 74-82

−16.5

USU

L 90-94

+3.5

SJSU

W 93-77

−0.5

SDSU

L 62-64

+0.5

SHSU

W 107-83

+12.5

W 86-61

+18.5

JOES

W 84-69

+4.5

TLSA

L 69-74

−7.5

covered 20didn’t cover 16avg +2.5 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

ETAM

W 76-54

−13.5

UTA

W 74-56

−15.5

UCR

W 82-68

+8.5

NMSU

L 68-76

+4.5

NEB

L 72-84

+4.5

MSST

W 80-78

+6.5

ALST

W 93-87

+31.5

SCU

W 98-71

+15.5

VCU

W 81-78

+1.5

FGCU

W 75-59

−25.5

SJSU

W 88-65

+0.5

BOIS

L 53-62

−31.5

WYO

W 78-58

−15.5

CSU

W 80-70

+6.5

W 91-49

+1.5

GCU

W 87-64

+4.5

SDSU

L 79-83

+13.5

FRES

W 83-74

+5.5

NEV

W 80-73

+2.5

UNLV

W 89-61

−5.5

SJSU

W 90-80

+21.5

USU

L 66-86

−4.5

BOIS

L 90-91

+28.5

GCU

W 70-64

−14.5

W 98-61

+10.5

FRES

W 80-78

+1.5

NEV

L 60-67

−21.5

SDSU

W 81-76

+6.5

CSU

L 74-82

+5.5

USU

L 90-94

+28.5

SJSU

W 93-77

+15.5

SDSU

L 62-64

−24.5

SHSU

W 107-83

+27.5

W 86-61

−14.5

JOES

W 84-69

−2.5

TLSA

L 69-74

−18.5

over 23under 13avg +1.3 ptslonger = bigger margin

Wichita St

35 games played

Straight up

23-12

66% wins

Against the spread

23-12

66% covers · avg +3.2 pts vs the line

Over / Under

15-20

43% overs · avg −1.3 pts vs the total

Straight up

23-1266%

W W W L W L L L W L W W W L L W L W W W L W W L W W W W W W W L W W L

2 of last 4 wonno streak

Against the spread

23-1266%

W W W W W W L L W L L W W L L W L W W W L W W L W L W W W W W L L W W

2 straight covers2 of last 4 covered

Over / Under

15-2043%

U O O U U U O U O U O U U O U O U O U U O U U U O O U O U O U U U O O

2 straight overs2 of last 4 over

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Nov 4	vsUNCA	W 75-58	-6.5	W +10.5	157.5	U 133
Nov 8	vsPV	W 105-62	-20.5	W +22.5	156.5	O 167
Nov 13	vsLUC	W 95-74	-5.5	W +15.5	153.5	O 169
Nov 18	@BOIS	L 59-62	+9.5	W +6.5	150.5	U 121
Nov 22	vsMILW	W 75-58	-10.5	W +6.5	158.5	U 133
Nov 26	vsSMC	L 65-70	+9.5	W +4.5	139.5	U 135
Nov 27	vsCSU	L 70-76	+1.5	L −4.5	142.5	O 146
Nov 28	vsWKU	L 70-75	-4.5	L −9.5	155.5	U 145
Dec 6	@UNI	W 74-69	+1.5	W +6.5	135.5	O 143
Dec 13	vsDEP	L 58-61	-7.5	L −10.5	145.5	U 119
Dec 17	vsWOF	W 84-73	-12.5	L −1.5	144.5	O 157
Dec 21	vsEKU	W 88-57	-14.5	W +16.5	148.5	U 145
Dec 31	@UAB	W 75-70	+3.5	W +8.5	149.5	U 145
Jan 3	@CLT	L 100-104	-5.5	L −9.5	140.5	O 204
Jan 7	vsRICE	L 64-66	-13.5	L −15.5	145.5	U 130
Jan 11	vsUNT	W 78-67	-8.5	W +2.5	135.5	O 145
Jan 15	@FAU	L 67-85	+3.5	L −14.5	155.5	U 152
Jan 18	@USF	W 86-85	+7.5	W +8.5	158.5	O 171
Jan 21	vsECU	W 77-60	-12.5	W +4.5	144.5	U 137
Jan 24	vsMEM	W 74-59	-3.5	W +11.5	145.5	U 133
Feb 1	@TLSA	L 83-93	+5.5	L −4.5	154.5	O 176
Feb 4	vsCLT	W 74-64	-9.5	W +0.5	143.5	U 138
Feb 8	@TULN	W 75-61	-5.5	W +8.5	148.5	U 136
Feb 11	vsUSF	L 58-66	+2.5	L −5.5	160.5	U 124
Feb 14	vsTLSA	W 81-77	-1.5	W +2.5	152.5	O 158
Feb 18	@ECU	W 92-89	-7.5	L −4.5	149.5	O 181
Feb 21	vsTEM	W 69-57	-8.5	W +3.5	144.5	U 126
Feb 26	@MEM	W 88-82	+1.5	W +7.5	149.5	O 170
Mar 1	@UTSA	W 84-67	-15.5	W +1.5	151.5	U 151
Mar 7	vsFAU	W 88-70	-8.5	W +9.5	150.5	O 158
Mar 14	vsTLSA	W 81-68	+1.5	W +14.5	152.5	U 149
Mar 15	vsUSF	L 55-70	+6.5	L −8.5	151.5	U 125
Mar 17	vsWYO	W 74-70	-5.5	L −1.5	148.5	U 144
Mar 22	@OKST	W 96-70	+2.5	W +28.5	164.5	O 166
Mar 24	@TLSA	L 79-83	+4.5	W +0.5	154.5	O 162

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

UNCA

W 75-58

+10.5

W 105-62

+22.5

LUC

W 95-74

+15.5

BOIS

L 59-62

+6.5

MILW

W 75-58

+6.5

SMC

L 65-70

+4.5

CSU

L 70-76

−4.5

WKU

L 70-75

−9.5

UNI

W 74-69

+6.5

DEP

L 58-61

−10.5

WOF

W 84-73

−1.5

EKU

W 88-57

+16.5

UAB

W 75-70

+8.5

CLT

L 100-104

−9.5

RICE

L 64-66

−15.5

UNT

W 78-67

+2.5

FAU

L 67-85

−14.5

USF

W 86-85

+8.5

ECU

W 77-60

+4.5

MEM

W 74-59

+11.5

TLSA

L 83-93

−4.5

CLT

W 74-64

+0.5

TULN

W 75-61

+8.5

USF

L 58-66

−5.5

TLSA

W 81-77

+2.5

ECU

W 92-89

−4.5

TEM

W 69-57

+3.5

MEM

W 88-82

+7.5

UTSA

W 84-67

+1.5

FAU

W 88-70

+9.5

TLSA

W 81-68

+14.5

USF

L 55-70

−8.5

WYO

W 74-70

−1.5

OKST

W 96-70

+28.5

TLSA

L 79-83

+0.5

covered 23didn’t cover 12avg +3.2 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

UNCA

W 75-58

−24.5

W 105-62

+10.5

LUC

W 95-74

+15.5

BOIS

L 59-62

−29.5

MILW

W 75-58

−25.5

SMC

L 65-70

−4.5

CSU

L 70-76

+3.5

WKU

L 70-75

−10.5

UNI

W 74-69

+7.5

DEP

L 58-61

−26.5

WOF

W 84-73

+12.5

EKU

W 88-57

−3.5

UAB

W 75-70

−4.5

CLT

L 100-104

+63.5

RICE

L 64-66

−15.5

UNT

W 78-67

+9.5

FAU

L 67-85

−3.5

USF

W 86-85

+12.5

ECU

W 77-60

−7.5

MEM

W 74-59

−12.5

TLSA

L 83-93

+21.5

CLT

W 74-64

−5.5

TULN

W 75-61

−12.5

USF

L 58-66

−36.5

TLSA

W 81-77

+5.5

ECU

W 92-89

+31.5

TEM

W 69-57

−18.5

MEM

W 88-82

+20.5

UTSA

W 84-67

−0.5

FAU

W 88-70

+7.5

TLSA

W 81-68

−3.5

USF

L 55-70

−26.5

WYO

W 74-70

−4.5

OKST

W 96-70

+1.5

TLSA

L 79-83

+7.5

over 15under 20avg −1.3 ptslonger = bigger margin

Line = the team’s closing spread (negative = favored). ATS number = points beyond the line; total number = combined points.

New Mexico has the better starters

Position by position: New Mexico 2, Wichita St 1, even 2

New MexicoBetterWichita St

G J. Hall16.2 pts · 3.2 reb · 1.6 ast Score 90

UNMSmall

G J. Long TR11.8 pts · 3.3 reb · 4 ast Score 72

G U. Tenette10.6 pts · 2.8 reb · 2.9 ast Score 73

WICHSmall

G J. Frison TR16.5 pts · 3.4 reb · 4.1 ast Score 93

G C. Howell6 pts · 3 reb · 3.5 ast Score 54

UNMSmall

G M. Gray7.9 pts · 3.3 reb · 2.4 ast Score 37

G H. Mayes TR11.1 pts · 5.6 reb · 1.7 ast Score 93

Even

G T. Williams8.8 pts · 5.1 reb · 1.5 ast Score 80

F T. Vahlberg Fasasi TR12.3 pts · 4.2 reb · 2.4 ast Score 72

Even

C W. Berg8.8 pts · 8 reb · 0.7 ast Score 85

New MexicoBetterWichita St

UNM offense72nd of 366 · +1.6

Even

WICH defense82nd of 366 · +0.2

UNM defense103rd of 366 · -0.9

Even

WICH offense78th of 366 · +0.8

Backcourt+5.6 · 4 players

UNMSmall

Backcourt+3.8 · 4 players

Frontcourt+1.0 · 1 player

WICHSmall

Frontcourt+2.8 · 1 player

Bench+0.9 · 1 player

Even

Bench+0.8 · 5 players

Score, worst to bestUNM betterWICH betterTR transfer · NEW no Division I numbers

Projected starters: college teams publish no depth chart, so these come from minutes played, and a freshman or a new starter can change them. The score is the share of ranked players at the position that player is ahead of. Numbers are this season's once a player has 30 minutes, 2025-26's before that. Bench is the next five by minutes. Tap a player for the full numbers.

Depth chart

Projected rotation by position, starters outlined

New Mexico

Guards

J. Hall31 minU. Tenette28 minC. Howell25 minH. Mayes24 min · TRD. HallNew

Forwards

T. Vahlberg Fasasi27 min · TRR. Petraitis17 min · TRF. GraniNewI. SuljanovicNewN. MuriithiNewB. SchuchNew

Wichita St

Guards

J. Long34 min · TRJ. Frison31 min · TRM. Gray27 minT. Williams22 minB. Heard18 min · TRJ. IghovodjaNew

Forwards

D. Battie18 minJ. Valencia13 minN. Hill5 minH. Thengvall2 min

Centers

W. Berg22 minC. Malonga11 min · TR

In order of minutes, from rosters as of today. ESPN lists players only as guards, forwards or centers, and no injury report exists for college basketball, so a player who is out may still show here.

Showing 2025-26 until both teams have played this season.

Matchup stats

2025-26 · rank among 365 teams

ChartTable

Scoring

Points per game

UNM80.8 #52

WICH77.6 #105

Points per possession

UNM1.14 #70

WICH1.12 #98

Pace (possessions)

UNM70.7 #87

WICH69.3 #164

Shooting

Effective FG%

UNM53.5 #82

WICH49.4 #274

3-point %

UNM35.6 #83

WICH33.5 #195

3-point attempt rate

UNM41.9 #136

WICH33.9 #300

Free throw rate

UNM35.8 #160

WICH36.0 #149

Possessions

Turnover rate

UNM14.9 #59

WICH15.0 #62

Offensive rebound rate

UNM30.6 #176

WICH38.0 #8

Assists per game

UNM14.8 #104

WICH11.3 #325

Defense

Points allowed

UNM71.6 #96

WICH70.8 #71

Points allowed per possession

UNM1.01 #36

WICH1.02 #42

Opponent effective FG%

UNM49.5 #84

WICH47.2 #24

Opponent 3-point %

UNM30.5 #20

WICH31.5 #44

Turnovers forced

UNM19.0 #50

WICH15.7 #238

Defensive rebound rate

UNM72.3 #57

WICH71.2 #93

Steals per game

UNM7.9 #43

WICH6.0 #235

Blocks per game

UNM2.7 #274

WICH3.8 #100

UNM		WICH
Scoring
80.8 #52	Points per game	77.6 #105
1.14 #70	Points per possession	1.12 #98
70.7 #87	Pace (possessions)	69.3 #164
Shooting
53.5 #82	Effective FG%	49.4 #274
35.6 #83	3-point %	33.5 #195
41.9 #136	3-point attempt rate	33.9 #300
35.8 #160	Free throw rate	36.0 #149
Possessions
14.9 #59	Turnover rate	15.0 #62
30.6 #176	Offensive rebound rate	38.0 #8
14.8 #104	Assists per game	11.3 #325
Defense
71.6 #96	Points allowed	70.8 #71
1.01 #36	Points allowed per possession	1.02 #42
49.5 #84	Opponent effective FG%	47.2 #24
30.5 #20	Opponent 3-point %	31.5 #44
19.0 #50	Turnovers forced	15.7 #238
72.3 #57	Defensive rebound rate	71.2 #93
7.9 #43	Steals per game	6.0 #235
2.7 #274	Blocks per game	3.8 #100

From the box scores. A longer bar is a better national rank, on every row; the better team's bar is solid. A green rank is near the top of Division I, a red one near the bottom. Pace and 3-point rate are styles, so they have no better side.

New Mexico

25-11 in 2025-26 overall · 14-8 in conference · Mountain West Conference

Last five, 2025-26

Lvs Tulsa69–74
Wvs Saint Joseph's84–69
Wvs G Washington86–61
Wvs Sam Houston107–83
Lvs San Diego St62–64

A week or more of rest.

Wichita St

23-12 in 2025-26 overall · 14-6 in conference · American Conference

Last five, 2025-26

L@ Tulsa79–83
W@ Oklahoma St96–70
Wvs Wyoming74–70
Lvs South Florida55–70
Wvs Tulsa81–68

A week or more of rest.

New Mexico Lobos at Wichita State Shockers

What could decide it: UNM has more of the edges

Market

Model vs market

1st-half model

ATS

Totals

Last 10 games

Next 3 games

ATS History · 2025-26

New Mexico

Wichita St

New Mexico has the better starters

Depth chart

Matchup stats

New Mexico

Wichita St