Tarleton State Texans at Drake Bulldogs: Model Line and Edge

Mon, Nov 16, 7:30 PM ETKnapp Center · at Drake

#144DRKEDrake

LineNo line yet

Total—

Season records: Tarleton St and Drake
TAR	This season	DRKE
0-0	Record	0-0
0-0	ATS	0-0
0-0	O/U	0-0

ATS = covered-didn’t-push · O/U = overs-unders

Model: projects DRKE 77–70 · win probability DRKE 72%

Pick this game

Your picksMy picks ›

Winner

Line

—

no line yet

Total

—

model 146.8

Model edge

—

No market line yet

Public

—

No split yet for this game

The model has not beaten the closing line: with an edge of 3 or more it went 409-367 in 2025-26. Model record

What could decide it: DRKE has more of the edges

TAR 0, DRKE 4 · 2025-26 numbers until both teams have played three games

DRKESmall

Shooting

Effective FG%: TAR 48.3 and allows 53.6; DRKE 51.4 and allows 52.6

Context

Tempo

About 70 possessions: TAR plays 71.2 a game (64th fastest), DRKE 68.4 (209th). Faster games mean more points

DRKESmall

TAR offense vs DRKE defense

Offense 200th of 366 against a defense 132nd, on the model’s ratings

Context

Schedule so far

TAR has played the 212th-hardest schedule, DRKE the 147th. A record against a soft schedule means less

DRKESmall

Home court

DRKE at home. This season: DRKE 0-0 at home, TAR 0-0 away

DRKESmall

Who is back

Minutes back from last season: TAR 23%, DRKE 51%. Transfers in: TAR 7, DRKE 3. Early in a season, turnover makes teams harder to price

Even

Free throws

Free throw rate: TAR 41.9, DRKE 33.5. Allowed: TAR 47.7, DRKE 32.0

Even

DRKE offense vs TAR defense

Offense 168th of 366 against a defense 186th, on the model’s ratings

Even

Turnovers

Turnover rate: TAR 19.9%, DRKE 15.0%. Forced: TAR 23.5%, DRKE 14.6%

Even

Rebounding

Offensive rebound rate: TAR 31.5%, DRKE 26.6%. Defensive: TAR 64.9%, DRKE 70.1%

Even

Three-pointers

TAR hits 32.5% and allows 34.9%; DRKE hits 34.0% and allows 36.4%. Threes are 24.2% and 45.7% of their shots

Sorted by how lopsided each matchup is, from national ranks. Reasons to look, not picks: the market already knows most of this.

Model vs market

	Market	Model	Model edge
Spread	—	DRKE -6.6	—
Total	—	146.8	—
Projected score	—	TAR 70.1 · DRKE 76.7

1st-half model

1st-half slate ›

	Model	Actual
1H spread	DRKE -3.8	—
1H total	68.7	—
1H projected score	TAR 32.4 · DRKE 36.2	—

The 1st-half model is fitted from the full-game model and past halves. ESPN has no 1st-half lines for college games, so there is no market to compare it with.

Showing 2025-26 until both teams have played this season.

ATS

2025-26 season

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
TAR LWLLL	14-14	50%	9-6	—
DRKE LLWWL	12-20	38%	3-12	—

Venue/role: TAR away; DRKE home. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

2025-26 season

	O-U	Over %	SU
TAR OOOUO	15-13	54%	10-18
DRKE UUUOU	18-14	56%	12-20

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Tap for the score and line.

Last 10 games

2025-26

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
TAR	3-7 30%	4-6 40%	5-5 50%
DRKE	2-8 20%	3-7 30%	5-5 50%

Wins-losses (pushes last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Next 3 games

With how the last meeting with each opponent went

Tarleton St

Date	Game	Last meeting
Nov 19	@ USC	No recent meeting
Nov 24	@ WEB	W75–65WO
Nov 29	@ TXSO	W82–71WO

Drake

Date	Game	Last meeting
Nov 19	vs COFC	W71–62WU
Nov 21	@ MOST	W68–60LO
Nov 27	vs BOIS	No recent meeting

Last meeting: result, against the spread, over / under. Hover a result for its date.

Recent meetings

Since 2021-22

TAR 0–1 DRKEDRKE leads · 1 game since 2021-22 · TAR 0-1 ATS

Date	Result	Line	Covered
Nov 21, 2022-23	DRKE 71 vs TAR 64	TAR +6.5	DRKE W

ATS History · 2025-26

WwinLloss·Wats winLats lossPpush·Owent over the totalUwent under the total

Tarleton St

28 games played

Straight up

10-18

36% wins

Against the spread

14-14

50% covers · avg +0.1 pts vs the line

Over / Under

15-13

54% overs · avg +4.8 pts vs the total

Straight up

10-1836%

L L W W L W L W W W L W L L L L L L L W L W W L L L L L

5 straight losses0 of last 4 won

Against the spread

14-1450%

W L W W W W W W W W L W L L L L L L W W L W L L W L L L

3 straight misses ATS1 of last 4 covered

Over / Under

15-1354%

O O O U O O U O U U O O O O U U U U U U U U O O O O U O

3 of last 4 overno streak

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Nov 3	@SMU	L 76-96	+21.5	W +1.5	144.5	O 172
Nov 5	@LSU	L 60-96	+15.5	L −20.5	148.5	O 156
Nov 8	vsAMCC	W 85-77	-3.5	W +4.5	142.5	O 162
Nov 11	vsMRMK	W 76-62	-4.5	W +9.5	142.5	U 138
Nov 14	@BAY	L 81-94	+23.5	W +10.5	149.5	O 175
Nov 20	@RICE	W 90-74	+4.5	W +20.5	146.5	O 164
Dec 1	@CIN	L 58-76	+24.5	W +6.5	142.5	U 134
Dec 16	@MVSU	W 88-64	-17.5	W +6.5	142.5	O 152
Dec 19	vsFAMU	W 78-54	-14.5	W +9.5	145.5	U 132
Dec 29	@UTA	W 69-63	+2.5	W +8.5	136.5	U 132
Jan 1	vsUVU	L 85-91	+5.5	L −0.5	144.5	O 176
Jan 3	vsCBU	W 81-76	-1.5	W +3.5	147.5	O 157
Jan 8	vsACU	L 80-84	-4.5	L −8.5	140.5	O 164
Jan 15	@SUU	L 105-106	-3.5	L −4.5	150.5	O 211
Jan 17	@UTU	L 71-75	+3.5	L −0.5	150.5	U 146
Jan 21	@UTA	L 64-71	+3.5	L −3.5	142.5	U 135
Jan 29	vsUVU	L 55-83	+6.5	L −21.5	154.5	U 138
Jan 31	vsUTU	L 59-65	-1.5	L −7.5	149.5	U 124
Feb 5	@CBU	L 55-56	+10.5	W +9.5	138.5	U 111
Feb 7	@SUU	W 62-59	-1.5	W +1.5	149.5	U 121
Feb 14	@ACU	L 59-73	+3.5	L −10.5	134.5	U 132
Feb 16	vsACU	W 65-62	+1.5	W +4.5	134.5	U 127
Feb 19	vsSUU	W 78-74	-4.5	L −0.5	144.5	O 152
Feb 21	vsUTU	L 72-80	-1.5	L −9.5	140.5	O 152
Feb 26	@UVU	L 72-79	+17.5	W +10.5	141.5	O 151
Feb 28	@CBU	L 67-82	+8.5	L −6.5	139.5	O 149
Mar 5	vsUTA	L 60-65	-1.5	L −6.5	136.5	U 125
Mar 11	vsACU	L 78-84	+1.5	L −4.5	134.5	O 162

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

SMU

L 76-96

+1.5

LSU

L 60-96

−20.5

AMCC

W 85-77

+4.5

MRMK

W 76-62

+9.5

BAY

L 81-94

+10.5

RICE

W 90-74

+20.5

CIN

L 58-76

+6.5

MVSU

W 88-64

+6.5

FAMU

W 78-54

+9.5

UTA

W 69-63

+8.5

UVU

L 85-91

−0.5

CBU

W 81-76

+3.5

ACU

L 80-84

−8.5

SUU

L 105-106

−4.5

UTU

L 71-75

−0.5

UTA

L 64-71

−3.5

UVU

L 55-83

−21.5

UTU

L 59-65

−7.5

CBU

L 55-56

+9.5

SUU

W 62-59

+1.5

ACU

L 59-73

−10.5

ACU

W 65-62

+4.5

SUU

W 78-74

−0.5

UTU

L 72-80

−9.5

UVU

L 72-79

+10.5

CBU

L 67-82

−6.5

UTA

L 60-65

−6.5

ACU

L 78-84

−4.5

covered 14didn’t cover 14avg +0.1 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

SMU

L 76-96

+27.5

LSU

L 60-96

+7.5

AMCC

W 85-77

+19.5

MRMK

W 76-62

−4.5

BAY

L 81-94

+25.5

RICE

W 90-74

+17.5

CIN

L 58-76

−8.5

MVSU

W 88-64

+9.5

FAMU

W 78-54

−13.5

UTA

W 69-63

−4.5

UVU

L 85-91

+31.5

CBU

W 81-76

+9.5

ACU

L 80-84

+23.5

SUU

L 105-106

+60.5

UTU

L 71-75

−4.5

UTA

L 64-71

−7.5

UVU

L 55-83

−16.5

UTU

L 59-65

−25.5

CBU

L 55-56

−27.5

SUU

W 62-59

−28.5

ACU

L 59-73

−2.5

ACU

W 65-62

−7.5

SUU

W 78-74

+7.5

UTU

L 72-80

+11.5

UVU

L 72-79

+9.5

CBU

L 67-82

+9.5

UTA

L 60-65

−11.5

ACU

L 78-84

+27.5

over 15under 13avg +4.8 ptslonger = bigger margin

Drake

32 games played

Straight up

12-20

38% wins

Against the spread

12-20

38% covers · avg −0.3 pts vs the line

Over / Under

18-14

56% overs · avg +3.8 pts vs the total

Straight up

12-2038%

W L L W L W W L L L W L W L L W L W W W L L L L L L L L L W W L

2 of last 4 wonno streak

Against the spread

12-2038%

L L L W W W W L L L W L L L W W L W W L L L W L L L L L L W W L

2 of last 4 coveredno streak

Over / Under

18-1456%

O O U U U O O U O U U U U O O O O O U O O O O O O O U U U U O U

1 of last 4 overno streak

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Nov 3	vsNAU	W 77-71	-8.5	L −2.5	144.5	O 148
Nov 6	vsRMU	L 79-81	-7.5	L −9.5	151.5	O 160
Nov 14	vsSIUE	L 59-61	-7.5	L −9.5	142.5	U 120
Nov 17	@COFC	W 71-62	+7.5	W +16.5	153.5	U 133
Nov 28	vsLSU	L 62-71	+11.5	W +2.5	151.5	U 133
Nov 29	vsGT	W 84-74	+4.5	W +14.5	137.5	O 158
Dec 2	vsWIU	W 108-57	-17.5	W +33.5	138.5	O 165
Dec 5	vsUAB	L 69-74	-1.5	L −6.5	148.5	U 143
Dec 13	vsNDSU	L 94-99	-5.5	L −10.5	145.5	O 193
Dec 18	@MUR	L 72-81	+7.5	L −1.5	156.5	U 153
Dec 21	@EVAN	W 66-65	+2.5	W +3.5	141.5	U 131
Dec 29	vsILST	L 56-73	+4.5	L −12.5	145.5	U 129
Jan 4	vsINST	W 74-72	-6.5	L −4.5	149.5	U 146
Jan 7	@BRAD	L 66-93	+6.5	L −20.5	144.5	O 159
Jan 10	vsBEL	L 76-78	+4.5	W +2.5	148.5	O 154
Jan 14	@SIU	W 76-73	+5.5	W +8.5	144.5	O 149
Jan 17	@UIC	L 67-74	+5.5	L −1.5	139.5	O 141
Jan 21	vsMUR	W 101-90	+4.5	W +15.5	156.5	O 191
Jan 24	@INST	W 76-62	+3.5	W +17.5	151.5	U 138
Jan 28	vsEVAN	W 82-78	-8.5	L −4.5	143.5	O 160
Jan 31	vsBRAD	L 73-87	+2.5	L −11.5	150.5	O 160
Feb 3	@BEL	L 90-103	+9.5	L −3.5	154.5	O 193
Feb 6	@ILST	L 76-86	+10.5	W +0.5	144.5	O 162
Feb 9	vsVAL	L 76-81	-3.5	L −8.5	144.5	O 157
Feb 12	vsUIC	L 70-80	+1.5	L −8.5	146.5	O 150
Feb 15	@UNI	L 62-86	+8.5	L −15.5	138.5	O 148
Feb 18	vsSIU	L 61-66	+1.5	L −3.5	149.5	U 127
Feb 25	@VAL	L 71-74	+2.5	L −0.5	146.5	U 145
Mar 1	vsUNI	L 53-75	+4.5	L −17.5	137.5	U 128
Mar 5	vsSIU	W 67-63	+5.5	W +9.5	140.5	U 130
Mar 6	vsBEL	W 100-79	+12.5	W +33.5	152.5	O 179
Mar 7	vsUIC	L 51-72	+4.5	L −16.5	144.5	U 123

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

NAU

W 77-71

−2.5

RMU

L 79-81

−9.5

SIUE

L 59-61

−9.5

COFC

W 71-62

+16.5

LSU

L 62-71

+2.5

W 84-74

+14.5

WIU

W 108-57

+33.5

UAB

L 69-74

−6.5

NDSU

L 94-99

−10.5

MUR

L 72-81

−1.5

EVAN

W 66-65

+3.5

ILST

L 56-73

−12.5

INST

W 74-72

−4.5

BRAD

L 66-93

−20.5

BEL

L 76-78

+2.5

SIU

W 76-73

+8.5

UIC

L 67-74

−1.5

MUR

W 101-90

+15.5

INST

W 76-62

+17.5

EVAN

W 82-78

−4.5

BRAD

L 73-87

−11.5

BEL

L 90-103

−3.5

ILST

L 76-86

+0.5

VAL

L 76-81

−8.5

UIC

L 70-80

−8.5

UNI

L 62-86

−15.5

SIU

L 61-66

−3.5

VAL

L 71-74

−0.5

UNI

L 53-75

−17.5

SIU

W 67-63

+9.5

BEL

W 100-79

+33.5

UIC

L 51-72

−16.5

covered 12didn’t cover 20avg −0.3 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

NAU

W 77-71

+3.5

RMU

L 79-81

+8.5

SIUE

L 59-61

−22.5

COFC

W 71-62

−20.5

LSU

L 62-71

−18.5

W 84-74

+20.5

WIU

W 108-57

+26.5

UAB

L 69-74

−5.5

NDSU

L 94-99

+47.5

MUR

L 72-81

−3.5

EVAN

W 66-65

−10.5

ILST

L 56-73

−16.5

INST

W 74-72

−3.5

BRAD

L 66-93

+14.5

BEL

L 76-78

+5.5

SIU

W 76-73

+4.5

UIC

L 67-74

+1.5

MUR

W 101-90

+34.5

INST

W 76-62

−13.5

EVAN

W 82-78

+16.5

BRAD

L 73-87

+9.5

BEL

L 90-103

+38.5

ILST

L 76-86

+17.5

VAL

L 76-81

+12.5

UIC

L 70-80

+3.5

UNI

L 62-86

+9.5

SIU

L 61-66

−22.5

VAL

L 71-74

−1.5

UNI

L 53-75

−9.5

SIU

W 67-63

−10.5

BEL

W 100-79

+26.5

UIC

L 51-72

−21.5

over 18under 14avg +3.8 ptslonger = bigger margin

Line = the team’s closing spread (negative = favored). ATS number = points beyond the line; total number = combined points.

The starting fives are even

Position by position: Tarleton St 2, Drake 2, even 1

Tarleton StBetterDrake

G C. Blackwell TR10.7 pts · 2.8 reb · 2.9 ast Score 52

TARSmall

G A. Alia6.8 pts · 4.7 reb · 1.4 ast Score 27

G F. Emmou TR7.3 pts · 1.8 reb · 1.3 ast Score 36

Even

G O. Larson10 pts · 3.3 reb · 2.8 ast Score 42

G L. Kelly5.2 pts · 2.8 reb · 1.1 ast Score 41

DRKESmall

G E. Shetlar9 pts · 4.3 reb · 1.3 ast Score 57

G T. Cope TR8.3 pts · 2.9 reb · 0.8 ast Score 47

TARSmall

F G. Oldham TR5.5 pts · 7.5 reb · 1 ast Score 21

F I. Harrell TR7.8 pts · 3.7 reb · 0.5 ast Score 23

DRKEBig

F J. Carroll TR10.7 pts · 8.1 reb · 0.6 ast Score 78

Tarleton StBetterDrake

TAR offense200th of 366 · -6.3

DRKESmall

DRKE defense132nd of 366 · -2.5

TAR defense186th of 366 · -4.3

Even

DRKE offense168th of 366 · -5.1

Backcourt-3.3 · 4 players

Even

Backcourt-3.7 · 3 players

Frontcourt-1.8 · 1 player

DRKESmall

Frontcourt-0.5 · 2 players

Bench-0.5 · 5 players

Even

Bench+0.1 · 2 players

Score, worst to bestTAR betterDRKE betterTR transfer · NEW no Division I numbers

Projected starters: college teams publish no depth chart, so these come from minutes played, and a freshman or a new starter can change them. The score is the share of ranked players at the position that player is ahead of. Numbers are this season's once a player has 30 minutes, 2025-26's before that. Bench is the next five by minutes. Tap a player for the full numbers.

Depth chart

Projected rotation by position, starters outlined

Tarleton St

Guards

C. Blackwell31 min · TRF. Emmou23 min · TRL. Kelly21 minT. Cope21 min · TRK. Douglas16 minJ. Martinez2 min

Forwards

I. Harrell26 min · TRJ. Daniel19 min · TRJ. Hayes13 min · TRJ. Mani12 min · TRM. Vrabel7 minE. CarterNew

Drake

Guards

A. Alia32 minO. Larson29 minE. Shetlar28 minD. Kindell17 min · TRD. IjadimbolaNewL. RushNew

Forwards

G. Oldham26 min · TRJ. Carroll25 min · TRG. Goodbary13 minJ. BurnsNewM. FlemonsNew

In order of minutes, from rosters as of today. ESPN lists players only as guards, forwards or centers, and no injury report exists for college basketball, so a player who is out may still show here.

Showing 2025-26 until both teams have played this season.

Matchup stats

2025-26 · rank among 365 teams

ChartTable

Scoring

Points per game

TAR72.5 #231

DRKE73.9 #200

Points per possession

TAR1.01 #309

DRKE1.08 #182

Pace (possessions)

TAR71.2 #64

DRKE68.4 #209

Shooting

Effective FG%

TAR48.3 #306

DRKE51.4 #179

3-point %

TAR32.5 #256

DRKE34.0 #172

3-point attempt rate

TAR24.2 #365

DRKE45.7 #53

Free throw rate

TAR41.9 #33

DRKE33.5 #223

Possessions

Turnover rate

TAR19.9 #348

DRKE15.0 #64

Offensive rebound rate

TAR31.5 #141

DRKE26.6 #310

Assists per game

TAR10.5 #349

DRKE13.1 #202

Defense

Points allowed

TAR75.8 #211

DRKE76.3 #225

Points allowed per possession

TAR1.07 #130

DRKE1.12 #261

Opponent effective FG%

TAR53.6 #285

DRKE52.6 #246

Opponent 3-point %

TAR34.9 #244

DRKE36.4 #323

Turnovers forced

TAR23.5 #2

DRKE14.6 #315

Defensive rebound rate

TAR64.9 #340

DRKE70.1 #155

Steals per game

TAR9.7 #3

DRKE5.2 #319

Blocks per game

TAR3.1 #206

DRKE2.9 #241

TAR		DRKE
Scoring
72.5 #231	Points per game	73.9 #200
1.01 #309	Points per possession	1.08 #182
71.2 #64	Pace (possessions)	68.4 #209
Shooting
48.3 #306	Effective FG%	51.4 #179
32.5 #256	3-point %	34.0 #172
24.2 #365	3-point attempt rate	45.7 #53
41.9 #33	Free throw rate	33.5 #223
Possessions
19.9 #348	Turnover rate	15.0 #64
31.5 #141	Offensive rebound rate	26.6 #310
10.5 #349	Assists per game	13.1 #202
Defense
75.8 #211	Points allowed	76.3 #225
1.07 #130	Points allowed per possession	1.12 #261
53.6 #285	Opponent effective FG%	52.6 #246
34.9 #244	Opponent 3-point %	36.4 #323
23.5 #2	Turnovers forced	14.6 #315
64.9 #340	Defensive rebound rate	70.1 #155
9.7 #3	Steals per game	5.2 #319
3.1 #206	Blocks per game	2.9 #241

From the box scores. A longer bar is a better national rank, on every row; the better team's bar is solid. A green rank is near the top of Division I, a red one near the bottom. Pace and 3-point rate are styles, so they have no better side.

Tarleton St

10-18 in 2025-26 overall · 5-14 in conference · United Athletic Conference

Last five, 2025-26

Lvs Abilene Chrstn78–84
Lvs UT Arlington60–65
L@ CA Baptist67–82
L@ Utah Valley72–79
Lvs Utah Tech72–80

A week or more of rest.

Drake

12-20 in 2025-26 overall · 8-15 in conference · Missouri Valley Conference

Last five, 2025-26

Lvs UIC51–72
Wvs Belmont100–79
Wvs S Illinois67–63
Lvs Northern Iowa53–75
L@ Valparaiso71–74

A week or more of rest.

Tarleton State Texans at Drake Bulldogs

What could decide it: DRKE has more of the edges

Market

Model vs market

1st-half model

ATS

Totals

Last 10 games

Next 3 games

Recent meetings

ATS History · 2025-26

Tarleton St

Drake

The starting fives are even

Depth chart

Matchup stats

Tarleton St

Drake