1. NCAAB
  2. Thu, Nov 19
  3. TAR @ USC
NCAAB · Thu, Nov 19

Tarleton State Texans at USC Trojans

Galen Center · at USC
#185TARTarleton St
@
#36USCUSC AP #21
LineNo line yet 
Total— 
TARThis seasonUSC
0-0Record0-0
0-0ATS0-0
0-0O/U0-0

ATS = covered-didn’t-push · O/U = overs-unders

Model: projects USC 88–67 · win probability USC 97%
Pick this game
Your picksMy picks ›
Winner
Line
—
no line yet
Total
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model 154.9
Model edge
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No market line yet
Public
—
No split yet for this game
The model has not beaten the closing line: with an edge of 3 or more it went 409-367 in 2025-26. Model record

What could decide it: USC has more of the edges

TAR 0, USC 8 · 2025-26 numbers until both teams have played three games
Context
Schedule so far
TAR has played the 212th-hardest schedule, USC the 42nd. A record against a soft schedule means less
USCBig
USC offense vs TAR defense
Offense 27th of 366 against a defense 186th, on the model’s ratings
USCBig
TAR offense vs USC defense
Offense 200th of 366 against a defense 55th, on the model’s ratings
USCBig
Shooting
Effective FG%: TAR 48.3 and allows 53.6; USC 50.4 and allows 49.7
USCBig
Free throws
Free throw rate: TAR 41.9, USC 44.2. Allowed: TAR 47.7, USC 33.4
USCSmall
Three-pointers
TAR hits 32.5% and allows 34.9%; USC hits 31.7% and allows 30.9%. Threes are 24.2% and 34.1% of their shots
USCSmall
Who is back
Minutes back from last season: TAR 23%, USC 64%. Transfers in: TAR 7, USC 6. Early in a season, turnover makes teams harder to price
USCSmall
Home court
USC at home. This season: USC 0-0 at home, TAR 0-0 away
USCSmall
Rebounding
Offensive rebound rate: TAR 31.5%, USC 32.4%. Defensive: TAR 64.9%, USC 67.8%
Even
Turnovers
Turnover rate: TAR 19.9%, USC 17.4%. Forced: TAR 23.5%, USC 16.4%
Context
Tempo
About 72 possessions: TAR plays 71.2 a game (64th fastest), USC 72.4 (25th). Faster games mean more points
Sorted by how lopsided each matchup is, from national ranks. Reasons to look, not picks: the market already knows most of this.

Market

Open → current
Spread
Opening line not available
Total
 
Moneyline
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Pre-game lines only (ESPN, DraftKings first). After tip-off the line shown is the closing line.

Model vs market

MarketModelModel edge
Spread—USC -21.9—
Total—154.9—
Projected score—TAR 66.5 · USC 88.4

1st-half model

1st-half slate ›
ModelActual
1H spreadUSC -12.9—
1H total72.4—
1H projected scoreTAR 29.8 · USC 42.6—
The 1st-half model is fitted from the full-game model and past halves. ESPN has no 1st-half lines for college games, so there is no market to compare it with.

USC has the better starters

Position by position: Tarleton St 0, USC 5, even 0
Tarleton StBetterUSC
G C. Blackwell TR10.7 pts · 2.8 reb · 2.9 ast Score 52
USCBig
G J. Cox TR18.4 pts · 5.3 reb · 5.2 ast Score 96
G F. Emmou TR7.3 pts · 1.8 reb · 1.3 ast Score 36
USCBig
G J. Jones15.5 pts · 8.8 reb · 2.6 ast Score 86
G L. Kelly5.2 pts · 2.8 reb · 1.1 ast Score 41
USCBig
G R. Rice20.3 pts · 3.3 reb · 6 ast Score 97
G T. Cope TR8.3 pts · 2.9 reb · 0.8 ast Score 47
USCBig
G I. Bruns TR20.9 pts · 5.4 reb · 1.2 ast Score 88
F I. Harrell TR7.8 pts · 3.7 reb · 0.5 ast Score 23
USCBig
F J. Cofie9.8 pts · 6.8 reb · 2 ast Score 77
Tarleton StBetterUSC
TAR offense200th of 366 · -6.3
USCBig
USC defense55th of 366 · +1.4
TAR defense186th of 366 · -4.3
USCBig
USC offense27th of 366 · +7.0
Backcourt-3.3 · 4 players
USCBig
Backcourt+15.2 · 4 players
Frontcourt-1.8 · 1 player
USCBig
Frontcourt+1.7 · 1 player
Bench-0.5 · 5 players
USCBig
Bench+2.9 · 5 players
Score, worst to bestTAR betterUSC betterTR transfer · NEW no Division I numbers
Projected starters: college teams publish no depth chart, so these come from minutes played, and a freshman or a new starter can change them. The score is the share of ranked players at the position that player is ahead of. Numbers are this season's once a player has 30 minutes, 2025-26's before that. Bench is the next five by minutes. Tap a player for the full numbers.

Depth chart

Projected rotation by position, starters outlined
Tarleton St
Guards
C. Blackwell31 min · TRF. Emmou23 min · TRL. Kelly21 minT. Cope21 min · TRK. Douglas16 minJ. Martinez2 min
Forwards
I. Harrell26 min · TRJ. Daniel19 min · TRJ. Hayes13 min · TRJ. Mani12 min · TRM. Vrabel7 minE. CarterNew
USC
Guards
J. Cox35 min · TRJ. Jones35 minR. Rice34 minI. Bruns32 min · TRK. Lewis30 min · TRA. Hunkin-Claytor28 min · TR
Forwards
J. Cofie31 minJ. Hughes28 min · TRA. RatliffNewC. CollinsNew
Centers
E. Reibe14 min · TRD. RatliffNewO. Joe AguNew
In order of minutes, from rosters as of today. ESPN lists players only as guards, forwards or centers, and no injury report exists for college basketball, so a player who is out may still show here.
Showing 2025-26 until both teams have played this season.

Matchup stats

2025-26 · rank among 365 teams
Scoring
Shooting
Possessions
Defense
TARUSC
Scoring
72.5 #231Points per game77.8 #97
1.01 #309Points per possession1.07 #199
71.2 #64Pace (possessions)72.4 #25
Shooting
48.3 #306Effective FG%50.4 #225
32.5 #2563-point %31.7 #299
24.2 #3653-point attempt rate34.1 #292
41.9 #33Free throw rate44.2 #8
Possessions
19.9 #348Turnover rate17.4 #228
31.5 #141Offensive rebound rate32.4 #113
10.5 #349Assists per game14.9 #92
Defense
75.8 #211Points allowed78.4 #277
1.07 #130Points allowed per possession1.08 #173
53.6 #285Opponent effective FG%49.7 #89
34.9 #244Opponent 3-point %30.9 #31
23.5 #2Turnovers forced16.4 #198
64.9 #340Defensive rebound rate67.8 #269
9.7 #3Steals per game6.2 #217
3.1 #206Blocks per game5.5 #8
From the box scores. A longer bar is a better national rank, on every row; the better team's bar is solid. A green rank is near the top of Division I, a red one near the bottom. Pace and 3-point rate are styles, so they have no better side.

Tarleton St

10-18 in 2025-26 overall · 5-14 in conference · United Athletic Conference

Last five, 2025-26
  • Lvs Abilene Chrstn78–84
  • Lvs UT Arlington60–65
  • L@ CA Baptist67–82
  • L@ Utah Valley72–79
  • Lvs Utah Tech72–80

A week or more of rest.

USC

17-14 in 2025-26 overall · 7-14 in conference · Big Ten Conference

Last five, 2025-26
  • Lvs Washington79–83
  • Lvs UCLA68–89
  • L@ Washington72–91
  • Lvs Nebraska67–82
  • L@ UCLA62–81

A week or more of rest.