1. NCAAB
  2. Thu, Nov 19
  3. VCU @ SCU
NCAAB · Thu, Nov 19

VCU Rams at Santa Clara Broncos

Leavey Center · at Santa Clara
#61VCUVCU
@
#106SCUSanta Clara
LineNo line yet 
Total— 
VCUThis seasonSCU
0-0Record0-0
0-0ATS0-0
0-0O/U0-0

ATS = covered-didn’t-push · O/U = overs-unders

Model: projects VCU 79–76 · win probability VCU 60%
Pick this game
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Winner
Line
—
no line yet
Total
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model 155.3
Model edge
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No market line yet
Public
—
No split yet for this game
The model has not beaten the closing line: with an edge of 3 or more it went 409-367 in 2025-26. Model record

What could decide it: VCU has more of the edges

VCU 3, SCU 2 · 2025-26 numbers until both teams have played three games
VCUBig
Free throws
Free throw rate: VCU 42.0, SCU 25.5. Allowed: VCU 32.8, SCU 38.2
VCUSmall
VCU offense vs SCU defense
Offense 65th of 366 against a defense 137th, on the model’s ratings
VCUSmall
Shooting
Effective FG%: VCU 53.6 and allows 49.0; SCU 54.5 and allows 52.0
SCUSmall
Turnovers
Turnover rate: VCU 15.1%, SCU 15.3%. Forced: VCU 17.0%, SCU 20.1%
SCUSmall
Home court
SCU at home. This season: SCU 0-0 at home, VCU 0-0 away
Even
SCU offense vs VCU defense
Offense 93rd of 366 against a defense 50th, on the model’s ratings
Even
Who is back
Minutes back from last season: VCU 65%, SCU 42%. Transfers in: VCU 4, SCU 3. Early in a season, turnover makes teams harder to price
Even
Three-pointers
VCU hits 36.3% and allows 33.0%; SCU hits 34.9% and allows 33.1%. Threes are 43.8% and 45.0% of their shots
Even
Rebounding
Offensive rebound rate: VCU 31.6%, SCU 36.4%. Defensive: VCU 70.0%, SCU 67.9%
Context
Tempo
About 70 possessions: VCU plays 69.5 a game (147th fastest), SCU 69.7 (135th). Faster games mean more points
Context
Schedule so far
VCU has played the 88th-hardest schedule, SCU the 86th. A record against a soft schedule means less
Sorted by how lopsided each matchup is, from national ranks. Reasons to look, not picks: the market already knows most of this.

Market

Open → current
Spread
Opening line not available
Total
 
Moneyline
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Pre-game lines only (ESPN, DraftKings first). After tip-off the line shown is the closing line.

Model vs market

MarketModelModel edge
Spread—VCU -2.8—
Total—155.3—
Projected score—VCU 79.1 · SCU 76.2

1st-half model

1st-half slate ›
ModelActual
1H spreadVCU -1.8—
1H total72.6—
1H projected scoreVCU 37.2 · SCU 35.4—
The 1st-half model is fitted from the full-game model and past halves. ESPN has no 1st-half lines for college games, so there is no market to compare it with.

VCU has the better starters

Position by position: VCU 4, Santa Clara 0, even 1
VCUBetterSanta Clara
G N. Ralph-Beyer TR14.3 pts · 3.9 reb · 0.7 ast Score 61
Even
G J. Ensminger6.4 pts · 5.5 reb · 2.8 ast Score 53
G B. Jennings8.5 pts · 3.6 reb · 2.1 ast Score 79
VCUBig
G D. Castillo TR10.3 pts · 1.9 reb · 1.8 ast Score 41
G N. Lewis8.7 pts · 4.5 reb · 1.6 ast Score 79
VCUSmall
G S. Gavalyugov9 pts · 1.9 reb · 2.7 ast Score 61
F T. Alston TR13.3 pts · 8 reb · 1.4 ast Score 85
VCUBig
G T. Darlan5.9 pts · 3.3 reb · 0.9 ast Score 35
F L. Djokovic13.2 pts · 5.2 reb · 1.1 ast Score 90
VCUSmall
G F. Zugic TR5.2 pts · 2 reb · 0.9 ast Score 56
VCUBetterSanta Clara
VCU offense65th of 366 · +2.0
VCUSmall
SCU defense137th of 366 · -2.8
VCU defense50th of 366 · +2.0
Even
SCU offense93rd of 366 · -0.4
Backcourt+2.2 · 3 players
VCUBig
Backcourt-2.9 · 5 players
Frontcourt+5.5 · 2 players
No call
FrontcourtNo numbers yet
Bench+3.2 · 5 players
VCUBig
Bench-0.2 · 3 players
Score, worst to bestVCU betterSCU betterTR transfer · NEW no Division I numbers
Projected starters: college teams publish no depth chart, so these come from minutes played, and a freshman or a new starter can change them. The score is the share of ranked players at the position that player is ahead of. Numbers are this season's once a player has 30 minutes, 2025-26's before that. Bench is the next five by minutes. Tap a player for the full numbers.

Depth chart

Projected rotation by position, starters outlined
VCU
Guards
N. Ralph-Beyer31 min · TRB. Jennings25 minN. Lewis24 minB. Harper18 min · TRT. Ward14 minA. Nowell11 min
Forwards
T. Alston30 min · TRL. Djokovic28 minM. Belle22 minJ. Wyche7 min · TRC. RossNewS. PlisnicNew
Santa Clara
Guards
J. Ensminger29 minD. Castillo28 min · TRS. Gavalyugov20 minT. Darlan18 minF. Zugic16 min · TRK. Cochran12 min
Forwards
C. TadjoNewN. BadibangaNew
Centers
F. Chukwudebelu6 minS. Gueye4 min · TRA. EnsorNew
In order of minutes, from rosters as of today. ESPN lists players only as guards, forwards or centers, and no injury report exists for college basketball, so a player who is out may still show here.
Showing 2025-26 until both teams have played this season.

Matchup stats

2025-26 · rank among 365 teams
Scoring
Shooting
Possessions
Defense
VCUSCU
Scoring
80.8 #50Points per game82.9 #30
1.16 #47Points per possession1.18 #37
69.5 #147Pace (possessions)69.7 #135
Shooting
53.6 #78Effective FG%54.5 #53
36.3 #463-point %34.9 #125
43.8 #913-point attempt rate45.0 #67
42.0 #30Free throw rate25.5 #363
Possessions
15.1 #70Turnover rate15.3 #86
31.6 #139Offensive rebound rate36.4 #20
13.9 #158Assists per game16.6 #33
Defense
71.8 #100Points allowed73.5 #141
1.04 #66Points allowed per possession1.06 #117
49.0 #69Opponent effective FG%52.0 #213
33.0 #125Opponent 3-point %33.1 #127
17.0 #151Turnovers forced20.1 #20
70.0 #162Defensive rebound rate67.9 #262
7.3 #99Steals per game8.7 #14
4.3 #50Blocks per game3.6 #125
From the box scores. A longer bar is a better national rank, on every row; the better team's bar is solid. A green rank is near the top of Division I, a red one near the bottom. Pace and 3-point rate are styles, so they have no better side.

VCU

28-8 in 2025-26 overall · 18-3 in conference · Atlantic 10 Conference

Last five, 2025-26
  • Lvs Illinois55–76
  • Wvs North Carolina82–78
  • Wvs Dayton70–62
  • Wvs Saint Joseph's77–64
  • Wvs Duquesne71–66

A week or more of rest.

Santa Clara

25-9 in 2025-26 overall · 17-4 in conference · West Coast Conference

Last five, 2025-26
  • Lvs Kentucky84–89
  • Lvs Gonzaga68–79
  • Wvs Saint Mary's76–71
  • Wvs Pacific76–68
  • Wvs Oregon St93–72

A week or more of rest.