1. NCAAB
  2. Thu, Nov 19
  3. ETAM @ CAL
NCAAB · Thu, Nov 19

East Texas A&M Lions at California Golden Bears

Haas Pavilion · at California
#342ETAMEast Texas A&M
@
#92CALCalifornia
LineNo line yet 
Total— 
ETAMThis seasonCAL
0-0Record0-0
0-0ATS0-0
0-0O/U0-0

ATS = covered-didn’t-push · O/U = overs-unders

Model: projects CAL 85–63 · win probability CAL 97%
Pick this game
Your picksMy picks ›
Winner
Line
—
no line yet
Total
—
model 147.6
Model edge
—
No market line yet
Public
—
No split yet for this game
The model has not beaten the closing line: with an edge of 3 or more it went 409-367 in 2025-26. Model record

What could decide it: CAL has more of the edges

ETAM 0, CAL 7 · 2025-26 numbers until both teams have played three games
CALBig
Three-pointers
ETAM hits 31.3% and allows 37.3%; CAL hits 36.9% and allows 31.0%. Threes are 46.2% and 43.1% of their shots
CALBig
ETAM offense vs CAL defense
Offense 344th of 366 against a defense 100th, on the model’s ratings
CALBig
CAL offense vs ETAM defense
Offense 84th of 366 against a defense 317th, on the model’s ratings
Context
Schedule so far
ETAM has played the 265th-hardest schedule, CAL the 77th. A record against a soft schedule means less
CALBig
Shooting
Effective FG%: ETAM 49.2 and allows 52.9; CAL 52.6 and allows 49.8
CALSmall
Turnovers
Turnover rate: ETAM 19.2%, CAL 15.1%. Forced: ETAM 17.0%, CAL 16.1%
CALSmall
Rebounding
Offensive rebound rate: ETAM 25.7%, CAL 26.0%. Defensive: ETAM 67.2%, CAL 69.5%
CALSmall
Home court
CAL at home. This season: CAL 0-0 at home, ETAM 0-0 away
Even
Who is back
Minutes back from last season: ETAM 7%, CAL 29%. Transfers in: ETAM 2, CAL 5. Early in a season, turnover makes teams harder to price
Context
Tempo
About 69 possessions: ETAM plays 68.5 a game (203rd fastest), CAL 69.8 (126th). Faster games mean more points
Even
Free throws
Free throw rate: ETAM 32.0, CAL 36.2. Allowed: ETAM 34.5, CAL 36.3
Sorted by how lopsided each matchup is, from national ranks. Reasons to look, not picks: the market already knows most of this.

Market

Open → current
Spread
Opening line not available
Total
 
Moneyline
—

Pre-game lines only (ESPN, DraftKings first). After tip-off the line shown is the closing line.

Model vs market

MarketModelModel edge
Spread—CAL -22.2—
Total—147.6—
Projected score—ETAM 62.7 · CAL 84.9

1st-half model

1st-half slate ›
ModelActual
1H spreadCAL -13.1—
1H total69.0—
1H projected scoreETAM 28 · CAL 41—
The 1st-half model is fitted from the full-game model and past halves. ESPN has no 1st-half lines for college games, so there is no market to compare it with.

California has the better starters

Position by position: East Texas A&M 0, California 1, even 4
East Texas A&MBetterCalifornia
G A. Dodd TR14.3 pts · 5.3 reb · 4.1 ast Score 82
Even
G M. Cooper TR13.8 pts · 2.7 reb · 2 ast Score 74
G E. Phelps1.3 pts · 0.7 reb · 1 ast Score 0
CALBig
G N. Indrusaitis TR9.1 pts · 3.1 reb · 1.7 ast Score 76
G K. Tolbert NEWNo Division I numbers yet Not ranked
No call
G J. Ross TR6.7 pts · 2.5 reb · 2.3 ast Score 58
F J. Ford TR3.1 pts · 2.5 reb · 0.5 ast Not ranked
No call
G S. Carr3.6 pts · 2.5 reb · 2.2 ast Score 46
F B. Aldridge NEWNo Division I numbers yet Not ranked
No call
F L. Dort8 pts · 7.8 reb · 0.9 ast Score 83
East Texas A&MBetterCalifornia
ETAM offense344th of 366 · -11.8
CALBig
CAL defense100th of 366 · -0.7
ETAM defense317th of 366 · -8.2
CALBig
CAL offense84th of 366 · +0.4
Backcourt-1.7 · 3 players
CALSmall
Backcourt+1.0 · 4 players
Frontcourt-1.0 · 2 players
CALSmall
Frontcourt+1.7 · 1 player
BenchNo numbers yet
No call
Bench+0.4 · 5 players
Score, worst to bestETAM betterCAL betterTR transfer · NEW no Division I numbers
Projected starters: college teams publish no depth chart, so these come from minutes played, and a freshman or a new starter can change them. The score is the share of ranked players at the position that player is ahead of. Numbers are this season's once a player has 30 minutes, 2025-26's before that. Bench is the next five by minutes. Tap a player for the full numbers.

Depth chart

Projected rotation by position, starters outlined
East Texas A&M
Guards
A. Dodd32 min · TRE. Phelps15 minK. TolbertNewC. AdlamNewK. RobinsonNewG. SkorjancNew
Forwards
J. Ford10 min · TRB. AldridgeNewY. VidalNewM. DiakiteNewC. DinuNewM. CarrioNew
California
Guards
M. Cooper27 min · TRN. Indrusaitis24 min · TRJ. Ross21 min · TRS. Carr17 minB. Fisher1 minL. Butler1 min
Forwards
L. Dort23 minJ. Wilkins10 min · TRA. Ali7 min · TRS. Yeanay5 minD. Manyiel Dut4 min
Centers
M. Kocanas7 minN. MitrovicNewD. DaubarisNew
In order of minutes, from rosters as of today. ESPN lists players only as guards, forwards or centers, and no injury report exists for college basketball, so a player who is out may still show here.
Showing 2025-26 until both teams have played this season.

Matchup stats

2025-26 · rank among 365 teams
Scoring
Shooting
Possessions
Defense
ETAMCAL
Scoring
67.1 #331Points per game77.7 #99
0.98 #342Points per possession1.11 #118
68.5 #203Pace (possessions)69.8 #126
Shooting
49.2 #282Effective FG%52.6 #119
31.3 #3133-point %36.9 #30
46.2 #433-point attempt rate43.1 #111
32.0 #257Free throw rate36.2 #146
Possessions
19.2 #330Turnover rate15.1 #74
25.7 #328Offensive rebound rate26.0 #322
14.6 #109Assists per game14.1 #142
Defense
76.0 #218Points allowed73.4 #140
1.11 #240Points allowed per possession1.05 #92
52.9 #261Opponent effective FG%49.8 #91
37.3 #347Opponent 3-point %31.0 #34
17.0 #156Turnovers forced16.1 #216
67.2 #288Defensive rebound rate69.5 #180
6.7 #150Steals per game5.9 #244
3.1 #196Blocks per game3.0 #217
From the box scores. A longer bar is a better national rank, on every row; the better team's bar is solid. A green rank is near the top of Division I, a red one near the bottom. Pace and 3-point rate are styles, so they have no better side.

East Texas A&M

9-21 in 2025-26 overall · 6-16 in conference · Southland Conference

Last five, 2025-26
  • L@ Texas A&M-CC71–84
  • L@ UT Rio Grande55–63
  • Lvs Hou Christian68–69
  • Lvs Incarnate Word73–82
  • Wvs SE Louisiana70–53

A week or more of rest.

California

21-12 in 2025-26 overall · 9-10 in conference · Atlantic Coast Conference

Last five, 2025-26
  • Lvs Saint Joseph's75–76
  • Wvs UIC91–73
  • Lvs Florida St89–95
  • L@ Wake Forest73–80
  • W@ Georgia Tech76–65

A week or more of rest.