1. NCAAB
  2. Fri, Nov 13
  3. OSU @ CONN
NCAAB · Fri, Nov 13

Ohio State Buckeyes at UConn Huskies

PeoplesBank Arena · at UConn
#33OSUOhio State
@
#6CONNUConn AP #4
LineNo line yet 
Total— 
OSUThis seasonCONN
0-0Record0-0
0-0ATS0-0
0-0O/U0-0

ATS = covered-didn’t-push · O/U = overs-unders

Model: projects CONN 79–67 · win probability CONN 85%
Pick this game
Your picksMy picks ›
Winner
Line
—
no line yet
Total
—
model 146.3
Model edge
—
No market line yet
Public
—
No split yet for this game
The model has not beaten the closing line: with an edge of 3 or more it went 409-367 in 2025-26. Model record

What could decide it: CONN has more of the edges

OSU 1, CONN 2 · 2025-26 numbers until both teams have played three games
OSUBig
Free throws
Free throw rate: OSU 37.2, CONN 29.9. Allowed: OSU 34.7, CONN 40.7
CONNSmall
Rebounding
Offensive rebound rate: OSU 30.4%, CONN 35.7%. Defensive: OSU 70.0%, CONN 71.2%
CONNSmall
Home court
CONN at home. This season: CONN 0-0 at home, OSU 0-0 away
Even
OSU offense vs CONN defense
Offense 36th of 366 against a defense 2nd, on the model’s ratings
Even
Shooting
Effective FG%: OSU 56.2 and allows 50.2; CONN 54.3 and allows 45.7
Even
Turnovers
Turnover rate: OSU 15.3%, CONN 16.4%. Forced: OSU 15.6%, CONN 17.8%
Context
Schedule so far
OSU has played the 33rd-hardest schedule, CONN the 4th. A record against a soft schedule means less
Even
Who is back
Minutes back from last season: OSU 37%, CONN 51%. Transfers in: OSU 4, CONN 7. Early in a season, turnover makes teams harder to price
Context
Tempo
About 67 possessions: OSU plays 67.2 a game (275th fastest), CONN 66.1 (307th). Faster games mean more points
Even
Three-pointers
OSU hits 35.7% and allows 31.9%; CONN hits 34.4% and allows 30.1%. Threes are 40.1% and 40.9% of their shots
Even
CONN offense vs OSU defense
Offense 25th of 366 against a defense 35th, on the model’s ratings
Sorted by how lopsided each matchup is, from national ranks. Reasons to look, not picks: the market already knows most of this.

Market

Open → current
Spread
Opening line not available
Total
 
Moneyline
—

Pre-game lines only (ESPN, DraftKings first). After tip-off the line shown is the closing line.

Model vs market

MarketModelModel edge
Spread—CONN -12.1—
Total—146.3—
Projected score—OSU 67.1 · CONN 79.2

1st-half model

1st-half slate ›
ModelActual
1H spreadCONN -7.0—
1H total68.4—
1H projected scoreOSU 30.7 · CONN 37.7—
The 1st-half model is fitted from the full-game model and past halves. ESPN has no 1st-half lines for college games, so there is no market to compare it with.

The starting fives are even

Position by position: Ohio State 1, UConn 1, even 3
Ohio StateBetterUConn
G J. Mobley15.7 pts · 2.4 reb · 2.8 ast Score 93
Even
G N. Machowski TR17.8 pts · 5.9 reb · 2.6 ast Score 80
G J. Pippen TR13.9 pts · 4 reb · 4.6 ast Score 90
Even
G S. Demary10.1 pts · 4.5 reb · 5.9 ast Score 98
G J. Williams TR14.9 pts · 4.5 reb · 2.6 ast Score 92
Even
G S. Ball12.8 pts · 3 reb · 1.5 ast Score 87
G C. Givens TR9.4 pts · 2.1 reb · 2.3 ast Score 65
CONNSmall
G B. Mullins12 pts · 3.5 reb · 1.4 ast Score 88
F A. Bynum9.7 pts · 4.9 reb · 1.1 ast Score 73
OSUBig
G J. Nash TR5.2 pts · 2.9 reb · 4.1 ast Score 26
Ohio StateBetterUConn
OSU offense36th of 366 · +5.2
Even
CONN defense2nd of 366 · +11.5
OSU defense35th of 366 · +3.3
Even
CONN offense25th of 366 · +7.1
Backcourt+9.1 · 4 players
Even
Backcourt+8.5 · 5 players
Frontcourt+1.1 · 1 player
No call
FrontcourtNo numbers yet
Bench+1.0 · 3 players
CONNSmall
Bench+3.4 · 5 players
Score, worst to bestOSU betterCONN betterTR transfer · NEW no Division I numbers
Projected starters: college teams publish no depth chart, so these come from minutes played, and a freshman or a new starter can change them. The score is the share of ranked players at the position that player is ahead of. Numbers are this season's once a player has 30 minutes, 2025-26's before that. Bench is the next five by minutes. Tap a player for the full numbers.

Depth chart

Projected rotation by position, starters outlined
Ohio State
Guards
J. Mobley32 minJ. Pippen31 min · TRJ. Williams30 min · TRC. Givens26 min · TRB. Nash2 minM. HerroNew
Forwards
A. Bynum29 minA. Jelavic16 min · TRJ. OjianwunaNewA. ThompsonNewA. SmithNewV. LazarevicNew
Centers
I. Njegovan11 min
UConn
Guards
N. Machowski35 min · TRS. Demary28 minS. Ball28 minB. Mullins28 minJ. Nash26 min · TRJ. CountyNew
Forwards
N. Khamenia20 min · TRI. Shaw18 min · TRJ. Ross18 minJ. RossNewC. LandrewNewE. AmosovNew
Centers
N. Hines18 min · TRO. Giltay15 min · TRE. Dzafic2 min · TR
In order of minutes, from rosters as of today. ESPN lists players only as guards, forwards or centers, and no injury report exists for college basketball, so a player who is out may still show here.
Showing 2025-26 until both teams have played this season.

Matchup stats

2025-26 · rank among 365 teams
Scoring
Shooting
Possessions
Defense
OSUCONN
Scoring
79.3 #76Points per game76.6 #129
1.18 #31Points per possession1.16 #52
67.2 #275Pace (possessions)66.1 #307
Shooting
56.2 #19Effective FG%54.3 #59
35.7 #723-point %34.4 #150
40.1 #1703-point attempt rate40.9 #149
37.2 #122Free throw rate29.9 #313
Possessions
15.3 #91Turnover rate16.4 #163
30.4 #185Offensive rebound rate35.7 #30
14.5 #117Assists per game18.1 #9
Defense
72.6 #120Points allowed65.2 #6
1.08 #164Points allowed per possession0.99 #17
50.2 #114Opponent effective FG%45.7 #7
31.9 #57Opponent 3-point %30.1 #8
15.6 #243Turnovers forced17.8 #107
70.0 #160Defensive rebound rate71.2 #99
4.8 #340Steals per game6.8 #143
2.4 #311Blocks per game5.0 #15
From the box scores. A longer bar is a better national rank, on every row; the better team's bar is solid. A green rank is near the top of Division I, a red one near the bottom. Pace and 3-point rate are styles, so they have no better side.

Ohio State

21-13 in 2025-26 overall · 13-9 in conference · Big Ten Conference

Last five, 2025-26
  • Lvs TCU64–66
  • Lvs Michigan67–71
  • Wvs Iowa72–69
  • Wvs Indiana91–78
  • W@ Penn State94–62

A week or more of rest.

UConn

34-6 in 2025-26 overall · 19-4 in conference · Big East Conference

Last five, 2025-26
  • Lvs Michigan63–69
  • Wvs Illinois71–62
  • Wvs Duke73–72
  • Wvs Michigan St67–63
  • Wvs UCLA73–57

A week or more of rest.