1. NCAAB
  2. Fri, Nov 13
  3. UGA @ UNC
NCAAB · Fri, Nov 13

Georgia Bulldogs at North Carolina Tar Heels

Dean E. Smith Center · at North Carolina
#34UGAGeorgia
@
#44UNCNorth Carolina
LineNo line yet 
Total— 
UGAThis seasonUNC
0-0Record0-0
0-0ATS0-0
0-0O/U0-0

ATS = covered-didn’t-push · O/U = overs-unders

Model: projects UNC 82–81 · win probability UNC 55%
Pick this game
Your picksMy picks ›
Winner
Line
—
no line yet
Total
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model 162.8
Model edge
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No market line yet
Public
—
No split yet for this game
The model has not beaten the closing line: with an edge of 3 or more it went 409-367 in 2025-26. Model record

What could decide it: UNC has more of the edges

UGA 2, UNC 3 · 2025-26 numbers until both teams have played three games
UGABig
Turnovers
Turnover rate: UGA 14.3%, UNC 13.9%. Forced: UGA 18.4%, UNC 13.6%
Context
Tempo
About 72 possessions: UGA plays 74.7 a game (8th fastest), UNC 69.0 (180th). Faster games mean more points
UNCSmall
Rebounding
Offensive rebound rate: UGA 34.9%, UNC 31.2%. Defensive: UGA 65.1%, UNC 72.2%
UNCSmall
Home court
UNC at home. This season: UNC 0-0 at home, UGA 0-0 away
UGASmall
Who is back
Minutes back from last season: UGA 46%, UNC 20%. Transfers in: UGA 4, UNC 5. Early in a season, turnover makes teams harder to price
UNCSmall
Shooting
Effective FG%: UGA 54.2 and allows 50.6; UNC 54.3 and allows 48.4
Even
UNC offense vs UGA defense
Offense 40th of 366 against a defense 75th, on the model’s ratings
Even
Free throws
Free throw rate: UGA 36.9, UNC 37.1. Allowed: UGA 30.2, UNC 23.8
Even
UGA offense vs UNC defense
Offense 19th of 366 against a defense 52nd, on the model’s ratings
Even
Three-pointers
UGA hits 33.8% and allows 33.6%; UNC hits 34.2% and allows 34.7%. Threes are 44.3% and 42.2% of their shots
Context
Schedule so far
UGA has played the 52nd-hardest schedule, UNC the 61st. A record against a soft schedule means less
Sorted by how lopsided each matchup is, from national ranks. Reasons to look, not picks: the market already knows most of this.

Market

Open → current
Spread
Opening line not available
Total
 
Moneyline
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Pre-game lines only (ESPN, DraftKings first). After tip-off the line shown is the closing line.

Model vs market

MarketModelModel edge
Spread—UNC -1.4—
Total—162.8—
Projected score—UGA 80.7 · UNC 82.1

1st-half model

1st-half slate ›
ModelActual
1H spreadUNC -0.7—
1H total76.0—
1H projected scoreUGA 37.7 · UNC 38.4—
The 1st-half model is fitted from the full-game model and past halves. ESPN has no 1st-half lines for college games, so there is no market to compare it with.

Georgia has the better starters

Position by position: Georgia 2, North Carolina 0, even 3
GeorgiaBetterNorth Carolina
G B. Cain13.1 pts · 5.1 reb · 2.6 ast Score 95
UGASmall
G N. Avdalas TR12.1 pts · 3.1 reb · 4.6 ast Score 67
G F. Dilione V TR14 pts · 3.2 reb · 2.2 ast Score 93
Even
G T. Brown TR19.9 pts · 2.4 reb · 3.8 ast Score 98
G M. Millender12 pts · 2.8 reb · 4.1 ast Score 89
UGASmall
G A. Brizzi TR14.7 pts · 2.7 reb · 1.8 ast Score 65
F K. Catchings11.6 pts · 4.8 reb · 1.2 ast Score 78
Even
F J. Stevenson8.1 pts · 4.4 reb · 0.9 ast Score 65
F J. Scott TR3.9 pts · 4.6 reb · 0.6 ast Score 78
Even
C C. Fens TR14.8 pts · 8.8 reb · 0.9 ast Score 85
GeorgiaBetterNorth Carolina
UGA offense19th of 366 · +7.8
Even
UNC defense52nd of 366 · +1.9
UGA defense75th of 366 · +0.7
Even
UNC offense40th of 366 · +5.0
Backcourt+8.6 · 3 players
UGASmall
Backcourt+6.0 · 3 players
Frontcourt+2.4 · 2 players
UNCSmall
Frontcourt+3.9 · 2 players
Bench+0.4 · 5 players
Even
Bench+0.4 · 5 players
Score, worst to bestUGA betterUNC betterTR transfer · NEW no Division I numbers
Projected starters: college teams publish no depth chart, so these come from minutes played, and a freshman or a new starter can change them. The score is the share of ranked players at the position that player is ahead of. Numbers are this season's once a player has 30 minutes, 2025-26's before that. Bench is the next five by minutes. Tap a player for the full numbers.

Depth chart

Projected rotation by position, starters outlined
Georgia
Guards
B. Cain28 minF. Dilione V28 min · TRM. Millender26 minB. Klatsky2 minM. Jennings1 minK. MillenderNew
Forwards
K. Catchings23 minJ. Scott18 min · TRB. Dunlap17 min · TRK. Stagg13 minA. Osasuyi12 min · TRM. KuanyNew
North Carolina
Guards
N. Avdalas32 min · TRT. Brown32 min · TRA. Brizzi30 min · TRM. Able22 min · TRJ. Young7 minI. Denis3 min
Forwards
J. Stevenson26 minJ. Holbrook2 minA. SamodurovNewM. AdamsNew
Centers
C. Fens26 min · TRC. BennermanNewS. KeitaNew
In order of minutes, from rosters as of today. ESPN lists players only as guards, forwards or centers, and no injury report exists for college basketball, so a player who is out may still show here.
Showing 2025-26 until both teams have played this season.

Matchup stats

2025-26 · rank among 365 teams
Scoring
Shooting
Possessions
Defense
UGAUNC
Scoring
89.4 #3Points per game79.7 #73
1.19 #18Points per possession1.16 #50
74.7 #8Pace (possessions)69.0 #180
Shooting
54.2 #61Effective FG%54.3 #57
33.8 #1853-point %34.2 #159
44.3 #833-point attempt rate42.2 #132
36.9 #131Free throw rate37.1 #127
Possessions
14.3 #31Turnover rate13.9 #20
34.9 #49Offensive rebound rate31.2 #159
14.8 #102Assists per game16.0 #47
Defense
79.8 #314Points allowed71.6 #97
1.07 #135Points allowed per possession1.04 #65
50.6 #134Opponent effective FG%48.4 #44
33.6 #165Opponent 3-point %34.7 #234
18.4 #82Turnovers forced13.6 #344
65.1 #336Defensive rebound rate72.2 #59
8.4 #21Steals per game5.4 #308
6.0 #3Blocks per game3.4 #167
From the box scores. A longer bar is a better national rank, on every row; the better team's bar is solid. A green rank is near the top of Division I, a red one near the bottom. Pace and 3-point rate are styles, so they have no better side.

Georgia

22-11 in 2025-26 overall · 10-9 in conference · Southeastern Conference

Last five, 2025-26
  • Lvs Saint Louis77–102
  • Lvs Ole Miss72–76
  • W@ Mississippi St102–96
  • Wvs Alabama98–88
  • Wvs South Carolina87–68

A week or more of rest.

North Carolina

24-9 in 2025-26 overall · 12-7 in conference · Atlantic Coast Conference

Last five, 2025-26
  • Lvs VCU78–82
  • Lvs Clemson79–80
  • L@ Duke61–76
  • Wvs Clemson67–63
  • Wvs Virginia Tech89–82

A week or more of rest.