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  2. Fri, Nov 13
  3. TROY @ NCSU
NCAAB · Fri, Nov 13

Troy Trojans at NC State Wolfpack

Lenovo Center · at NC State
#147TROYTroy
@
#48NCSUNC State
LineNo line yet 
Total— 
TROYThis seasonNCSU
0-0Record0-0
0-0ATS0-0
0-0O/U0-0

ATS = covered-didn’t-push · O/U = overs-unders

Model: projects NCSU 86–68 · win probability NCSU 94%
Pick this game
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Winner
Line
—
no line yet
Total
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model 154.0
Model edge
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No market line yet
Public
—
No split yet for this game
The model has not beaten the closing line: with an edge of 3 or more it went 409-367 in 2025-26. Model record

What could decide it: NCSU has more of the edges

TROY 2, NCSU 4 · 2025-26 numbers until both teams have played three games
NCSUBig
Turnovers
Turnover rate: TROY 17.3%, NCSU 13.1%. Forced: TROY 16.7%, NCSU 18.2%
NCSUBig
NCSU offense vs TROY defense
Offense 42nd of 366 against a defense 162nd, on the model’s ratings
Context
Schedule so far
TROY has played the 166th-hardest schedule, NCSU the 51st. A record against a soft schedule means less
TROYSmall
Free throws
Free throw rate: TROY 36.2, NCSU 35.1. Allowed: TROY 31.4, NCSU 36.9
NCSUSmall
TROY offense vs NCSU defense
Offense 143rd of 366 against a defense 58th, on the model’s ratings
TROYSmall
Rebounding
Offensive rebound rate: TROY 34.5%, NCSU 28.2%. Defensive: TROY 68.3%, NCSU 69.5%
NCSUSmall
Home court
NCSU at home. This season: NCSU 0-0 at home, TROY 0-0 away
Even
Who is back
Minutes back from last season: TROY 11%, NCSU 28%. Transfers in: TROY 6, NCSU 8. Early in a season, turnover makes teams harder to price
Context
Tempo
About 70 possessions: TROY plays 69.6 a game (141st fastest), NCSU 70.2 (103rd). Faster games mean more points
Even
Three-pointers
TROY hits 33.0% and allows 31.6%; NCSU hits 38.8% and allows 35.5%. Threes are 45.9% and 43.4% of their shots
Even
Shooting
Effective FG%: TROY 51.5 and allows 50.2; NCSU 55.0 and allows 52.7
Sorted by how lopsided each matchup is, from national ranks. Reasons to look, not picks: the market already knows most of this.

Market

Open → current
Spread
Opening line not available
Total
 
Moneyline
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Pre-game lines only (ESPN, DraftKings first). After tip-off the line shown is the closing line.

Model vs market

MarketModelModel edge
Spread—NCSU -18.1—
Total—154.0—
Projected score—TROY 68 · NCSU 86

1st-half model

1st-half slate ›
ModelActual
1H spreadNCSU -10.6—
1H total72.0—
1H projected scoreTROY 30.7 · NCSU 41.3—
The 1st-half model is fitted from the full-game model and past halves. ESPN has no 1st-half lines for college games, so there is no market to compare it with.

NC State has the better starters

Position by position: Troy 0, NC State 3, even 2
TroyBetterNC State
G R. Davis TR9.9 pts · 2.6 reb · 1.4 ast Score 14
NCSUBig
G P. Edmead TR16.5 pts · 3.6 reb · 4.3 ast Score 83
G D. Oday TR18.9 pts · 3.6 reb · 1.9 ast Score 95
Even
G C. Hammond TR15.7 pts · 2.8 reb · 2.5 ast Score 87
G J. Hutchinson TR12.1 pts · 3.4 reb · 3.3 ast Score 76
Even
G P. McNeil13.8 pts · 3.6 reb · 0.8 ast Score 90
F C. Diggs TR10.3 pts · 3.7 reb · 0.9 ast Score 59
NCSUBig
F K. Evans TR11.8 pts · 8.8 reb · 0.9 ast Score 95
F K. Kiel3.6 pts · 3.5 reb · 1 ast Score 23
NCSUBig
F E. Yalaho TR10.1 pts · 5.6 reb · 1.7 ast Score 58
TroyBetterNC State
TROY offense143rd of 366 · -4.3
NCSUSmall
NCSU defense58th of 366 · +1.3
TROY defense162nd of 366 · -3.6
NCSUSmall
NCSU offense42nd of 366 · +4.6
Backcourt+1.4 · 3 players
NCSUBig
Backcourt+6.7 · 3 players
Frontcourt-1.0 · 2 players
NCSUBig
Frontcourt+4.6 · 2 players
Bench-2.0 · 4 players
NCSUBig
Bench+2.9 · 5 players
Score, worst to bestTROY betterNCSU betterTR transfer · NEW no Division I numbers
Projected starters: college teams publish no depth chart, so these come from minutes played, and a freshman or a new starter can change them. The score is the share of ranked players at the position that player is ahead of. Numbers are this season's once a player has 30 minutes, 2025-26's before that. Bench is the next five by minutes. Tap a player for the full numbers.

Depth chart

Projected rotation by position, starters outlined
Troy
Guards
R. Davis31 min · TRD. Oday30 min · TRJ. Hutchinson29 min · TRH. Awata2 minJ. KontuniemiNewR. ValakouNew
Forwards
C. Diggs23 min · TRK. Kiel16 minM. Ikegwuruka13 min · TRS. Walters9 min · TRE. Griffin5 min
Centers
A. PachecoNew
NC State
Guards
P. Edmead35 min · TRC. Hammond30 min · TRP. McNeil29 minD. Adams26 min · TRR. Keene23 min · TRJ. Brim5 min · TR
Forwards
K. Evans30 min · TRE. Yalaho29 min · TRV. Lubin28 minC. Emuobor19 min · TRR. JurkovicNewS. HallNew
In order of minutes, from rosters as of today. ESPN lists players only as guards, forwards or centers, and no injury report exists for college basketball, so a player who is out may still show here.
Showing 2025-26 until both teams have played this season.

Matchup stats

2025-26 · rank among 365 teams
Scoring
Shooting
Possessions
Defense
TROYNCSU
Scoring
77.3 #110Points per game83.2 #25
1.11 #113Points per possession1.18 #30
69.6 #141Pace (possessions)70.2 #103
Shooting
51.5 #171Effective FG%55.0 #35
33.0 #2293-point %38.8 #6
45.9 #473-point attempt rate43.4 #104
36.2 #147Free throw rate35.1 #175
Possessions
17.3 #226Turnover rate13.1 #7
34.5 #59Offensive rebound rate28.2 #258
15.0 #86Assists per game15.4 #70
Defense
74.5 #178Points allowed76.3 #224
1.07 #128Points allowed per possession1.09 #186
50.2 #111Opponent effective FG%52.7 #256
31.6 #47Opponent 3-point %35.5 #281
16.7 #173Turnovers forced18.2 #90
68.3 #243Defensive rebound rate69.5 #181
7.2 #107Steals per game8.1 #37
3.3 #169Blocks per game3.4 #159
From the box scores. A longer bar is a better national rank, on every row; the better team's bar is solid. A green rank is near the top of Division I, a red one near the bottom. Pace and 3-point rate are styles, so they have no better side.

Troy

20-12 in 2025-26 overall · 14-6 in conference · Sun Belt Conference

Last five, 2025-26
  • Lvs Nebraska47–76
  • Wvs GA Southern77–61
  • Wvs Southern Miss78–70
  • Wvs UL Monroe80–65
  • Wvs Louisiana78–59

A week or more of rest.

NC State

20-14 in 2025-26 overall · 11-9 in conference · Atlantic Coast Conference

Last five, 2025-26
  • Lvs Texas66–68
  • Lvs Virginia74–81
  • Wvs Pitt98–88
  • Lvs Stanford84–85
  • Lvs Duke64–93

A week or more of rest.