Florida International Panthers at Florida Gulf Coast Eagles: Model Line and Edge

Fri, Nov 13, 7:00 PM ETAlico Arena · at FGCU

#178FIUFIU

#266FGCUFGCU

LineNo line yet

Total—

Season records: FIU and FGCU
FIU	This season	FGCU
0-0	Record	0-0
0-0	ATS	0-0
0-0	O/U	0-0

ATS = covered-didn’t-push · O/U = overs-unders

Model: projects FIU 77–75 · win probability FIU 59%

Pick this game

Your picksMy picks ›

Winner

Line

—

no line yet

Total

—

model 152.2

Model edge

—

No market line yet

Public

—

No split yet for this game

The model has not beaten the closing line: with an edge of 3 or more it went 409-367 in 2025-26. Model record

What could decide it: FGCU has more of the edges

FIU 2, FGCU 3 · 2025-26 numbers until both teams have played three games

FIUBig

Free throws

Free throw rate: FIU 38.6, FGCU 29.1. Allowed: FIU 35.9, FGCU 38.3

FIUBig

FIU offense vs FGCU defense

Offense 144th of 366 against a defense 274th, on the model’s ratings

FGCUSmall

Rebounding

Offensive rebound rate: FIU 33.9%, FGCU 31.1%. Defensive: FIU 65.2%, FGCU 71.8%

Context

Schedule so far

FIU has played the 151st-hardest schedule, FGCU the 231st. A record against a soft schedule means less

FGCUSmall

Home court

FGCU at home. This season: FGCU 0-0 at home, FIU 0-0 away

Context

Tempo

About 71 possessions: FIU plays 72.4 a game (26th fastest), FGCU 69.9 (122nd). Faster games mean more points

FGCUSmall

Who is back

Minutes back from last season: FIU 0%, FGCU 25%. Transfers in: FIU 6, FGCU 3. Early in a season, turnover makes teams harder to price

Even

FGCU offense vs FIU defense

Offense 259th of 366 against a defense 217th, on the model’s ratings

Even

Shooting

Effective FG%: FIU 50.6 and allows 52.9; FGCU 52.0 and allows 53.4

Even

Turnovers

Turnover rate: FIU 17.8%, FGCU 16.0%. Forced: FIU 20.0%, FGCU 16.4%

Even

Three-pointers

FIU hits 34.7% and allows 36.2%; FGCU hits 33.2% and allows 35.5%. Threes are 32.8% and 38.4% of their shots

Sorted by how lopsided each matchup is, from national ranks. Reasons to look, not picks: the market already knows most of this.

Model vs market

	Market	Model	Model edge
Spread	—	FIU -2.5	—
Total	—	152.2	—
Projected score	—	FIU 77.4 · FGCU 74.8

1st-half model

1st-half slate ›

	Model	Actual
1H spread	FIU -1.6	—
1H total	71.1	—
1H projected score	FIU 36.4 · FGCU 34.7	—

The 1st-half model is fitted from the full-game model and past halves. ESPN has no 1st-half lines for college games, so there is no market to compare it with.

Showing 2025-26 until both teams have played this season.

ATS

2025-26 season

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
FIU LWLWL	16-13	55%	7-6	—
FGCU LLWWL	9-23	28%	4-11	—

Venue/role: FIU away; FGCU home. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

2025-26 season

	O-U	Over %	SU
FIU OOUUU	14-15	48%	12-17
FGCU UUUUU	15-17	47%	14-18

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Tap for the score and line.

Last 10 games

2025-26

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
FIU	4-6 40%	4-6 40%	3-7 30%
FGCU	6-4 60%	3-7 30%	3-7 30%

Wins-losses (pushes last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Next 3 games

With how the last meeting with each opponent went

FIU

Date	Game	Last meeting
Nov 17	@ UAB	L72–76WU
Nov 23	vs LBSU	No recent meeting
Nov 24	vs SUU	L75–80WU

FGCU

Date	Game	Last meeting
Nov 18	@ FAU	L76–81LO
Nov 23	vs CLT	No recent meeting
Nov 25	vs GAST	No recent meeting

Last meeting: result, against the spread, over / under. Hover a result for its date.

Recent meetings

Since 2021-22

FIU 2–3 FGCUFGCU leads · 5 games since 2021-22 · FIU 3-2 ATS

Date	Result	Line	Covered
Dec 3, 2025-26	FGCU 83 @ FIU 89	FIU +1.5	FIU W
Nov 24, 2024-25	FIU 59 @ FGCU 60	FGCU -4.5	FIU W
Nov 29, 2023-24	FGCU 68 @ FIU 65	FIU -2.5	FGCU W
Dec 4, 2022-23	FIU 65 @ FGCU 74	FGCU -7.5	FGCU W
Dec 1, 2021-22	FGCU 61 @ FIU 77	FIU -3	FIU W

ATS History · 2025-26

WwinLloss·Wats winLats lossPpush·Owent over the totalUwent under the total

FIU

29 games played

Straight up

12-17

41% wins

Against the spread

16-13

55% covers · avg +1.1 pts vs the line

Over / Under

14-15

48% overs · avg +1.3 pts vs the total

Straight up

12-1741%

L L L W W W L W L W W L L L L L W L W L L W L W L W L W L

2 of last 4 wonno streak

Against the spread

16-1355%

L W L W W W W W W W W L L W L L W L W L L W W L L W L W L

2 of last 4 coveredno streak

Over / Under

14-1548%

O O U U O O O O O O U U U U U O U O O U U U O U O O U U U

3 straight unders1 of last 4 over

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Nov 8	@NEB	L 66-96	+21.5	L −8.5	156.5	O 162
Nov 13	@LSU	L 81-98	+21.5	W +4.5	158.5	O 179
Nov 24	vsJMU	L 72-80	-2.5	L −10.5	155.5	U 152
Nov 26	vsOMA	W 74-61	-4.5	W +8.5	157.5	U 135
Dec 3	vsFGCU	W 89-83	+1.5	W +7.5	154.5	O 172
Dec 6	vsJAX	W 88-65	-5.5	W +17.5	145.5	O 153
Dec 16	@MIA	L 81-98	+22.5	W +5.5	161.5	O 179
Dec 20	vsLIU	W 86-79	-6.5	W +0.5	161.5	O 165
Dec 28	vsLIB	L 94-97	+4.5	W +1.5	152.5	O 191
Jan 2	vsNMSU	W 89-74	+1.5	W +16.5	157.5	O 163
Jan 4	vsUTEP	W 76-64	-6.5	W +5.5	152.5	U 140
Jan 7	@JXST	L 64-71	+1.5	L −5.5	150.5	U 135
Jan 10	@MOST	L 71-79	+2.5	L −5.5	153.5	U 150
Jan 14	@KENN	L 86-89	+5.5	W +2.5	175.5	U 175
Jan 17	vsSHSU	L 63-76	-2.5	L −15.5	168.5	U 139
Jan 22	@UTEP	L 77-83	-1.5	L −7.5	151.5	O 160
Jan 24	@NMSU	W 81-78	+7.5	W +10.5	159.5	U 159
Jan 28	vsJXST	L 74-78	-3.5	L −7.5	148.5	O 152
Feb 4	@MTSU	W 88-84	+5.5	W +9.5	154.5	O 172
Feb 7	@WKU	L 70-80	+4.5	L −5.5	159.5	U 150
Feb 12	vsDEL	L 66-68	-8.5	L −10.5	147.5	U 134
Feb 14	vsLT	W 77-64	-3.5	W +9.5	146.5	U 141
Feb 19	@LIB	L 89-90	+9.5	W +8.5	152.5	O 179
Feb 21	vsMOST	W 70-67	-3.5	L −0.5	154.5	U 137
Feb 26	@SHSU	L 67-100	+6.5	L −26.5	161.5	O 167
Feb 28	@LT	W 84-76	+2.5	W +10.5	145.5	O 160
Mar 5	vsMTSU	L 67-73	-1.5	L −7.5	153.5	U 140
Mar 7	vsWKU	W 92-67	+1.5	W +26.5	160.5	U 159
Mar 10	vsMOST	L 72-75	+1.5	L −1.5	152.5	U 147

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

NEB

L 66-96

−8.5

LSU

L 81-98

+4.5

JMU

L 72-80

−10.5

OMA

W 74-61

+8.5

FGCU

W 89-83

+7.5

JAX

W 88-65

+17.5

MIA

L 81-98

+5.5

LIU

W 86-79

+0.5

LIB

L 94-97

+1.5

NMSU

W 89-74

+16.5

UTEP

W 76-64

+5.5

JXST

L 64-71

−5.5

MOST

L 71-79

−5.5

KENN

L 86-89

+2.5

SHSU

L 63-76

−15.5

UTEP

L 77-83

−7.5

NMSU

W 81-78

+10.5

JXST

L 74-78

−7.5

MTSU

W 88-84

+9.5

WKU

L 70-80

−5.5

DEL

L 66-68

−10.5

W 77-64

+9.5

LIB

L 89-90

+8.5

MOST

W 70-67

−0.5

SHSU

L 67-100

−26.5

W 84-76

+10.5

MTSU

L 67-73

−7.5

WKU

W 92-67

+26.5

MOST

L 72-75

−1.5

covered 16didn’t cover 13avg +1.1 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

NEB

L 66-96

+5.5

LSU

L 81-98

+20.5

JMU

L 72-80

−3.5

OMA

W 74-61

−22.5

FGCU

W 89-83

+17.5

JAX

W 88-65

+7.5

MIA

L 81-98

+17.5

LIU

W 86-79

+3.5

LIB

L 94-97

+38.5

NMSU

W 89-74

+5.5

UTEP

W 76-64

−12.5

JXST

L 64-71

−15.5

MOST

L 71-79

−3.5

KENN

L 86-89

−0.5

SHSU

L 63-76

−29.5

UTEP

L 77-83

+8.5

NMSU

W 81-78

−0.5

JXST

L 74-78

+3.5

MTSU

W 88-84

+17.5

WKU

L 70-80

−9.5

DEL

L 66-68

−13.5

W 77-64

−5.5

LIB

L 89-90

+26.5

MOST

W 70-67

−17.5

SHSU

L 67-100

+5.5

W 84-76

+14.5

MTSU

L 67-73

−13.5

WKU

W 92-67

−1.5

MOST

L 72-75

−5.5

over 14under 15avg +1.3 ptslonger = bigger margin

FGCU

32 games played

Straight up

14-18

44% wins

Against the spread

9-23

28% covers · avg −1.8 pts vs the line

Over / Under

15-17

47% overs · avg +1.4 pts vs the total

Straight up

14-1844%

L L W W W W L L L L L L W L L L W L L W W L L W W W W L L W W L

2 of last 4 wonno streak

Against the spread

9-2328%

L L W W L W L L L L L L W L L L W L L L W L L L L L W L L W W L

2 of last 4 coveredno streak

Over / Under

15-1747%

O O O U O U O O O U O O U U O U O U O U U U U O O O U U U U U U

6 straight unders0 of last 4 over

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Nov 7	@ILL	L 70-113	+29.5	L −13.5	160.5	O 183
Nov 11	vsGASO	L 94-95	-3.5	L −4.5	163.5	O 189
Nov 15	vsUTC	W 91-73	+1.5	W +19.5	152.5	O 164
Nov 19	@SAM	W 77-62	+5.5	W +20.5	154.5	U 139
Nov 24	vsORU	W 93-88	-11.5	L −6.5	153.5	O 181
Nov 25	vsRICE	W 78-63	-5.5	W +9.5	149.5	U 141
Nov 26	vsKENN	L 100-102	-1.5	L −3.5	160.5	O 202
Dec 3	@FIU	L 83-89	-1.5	L −7.5	154.5	O 172
Dec 7	vsFAU	L 76-81	+2.5	L −2.5	150.5	O 157
Dec 14	@UNM	L 59-75	+15.5	L −0.5	159.5	U 134
Dec 20	@UCF	L 80-102	+17.5	L −4.5	161.5	O 182
Jan 1	@CARK	L 83-85	-2.5	L −4.5	156.5	O 168
Jan 3	@UNA	W 72-55	-2.5	W +14.5	147.5	U 127
Jan 8	vsAPSU	L 71-82	-3.5	L −14.5	153.5	U 153
Jan 10	vsLIP	L 77-84	-2.5	L −9.5	157.5	O 161
Jan 15	vsQUC	L 74-85	-1.5	L −12.5	166.5	U 159
Jan 17	vsWGA	W 90-72	-9.5	W +8.5	152.5	O 162
Jan 22	@APSU	L 62-83	+6.5	L −14.5	155.5	U 145
Jan 23	@LIP	L 71-86	+5.5	L −9.5	153.5	O 157
Jan 29	vsUNA	W 72-64	-9.5	L −1.5	147.5	U 136
Jan 31	@JAX	W 68-49	+1.5	W +20.5	136.5	U 117
Feb 5	@EKU	L 74-76	+1.5	L −0.5	154.5	U 150
Feb 7	@BELL	L 65-81	-2.5	L −18.5	151.5	U 146
Feb 11	vsUNF	W 90-81	-13.5	L −4.5	163.5	O 171
Feb 14	vsSTET	W 78-76	-11.5	L −9.5	148.5	O 154
Feb 18	vsJAX	W 86-84	-6.5	L −4.5	136.5	O 170
Feb 21	vsCARK	W 75-71	+1.5	W +5.5	152.5	U 146
Feb 26	@UNF	L 70-76	-6.5	L −12.5	160.5	U 146
Feb 28	@STET	L 63-78	-5.5	L −20.5	150.5	U 141
Mar 4	vsUNA	W 69-58	-8.5	W +2.5	139.5	U 127
Mar 6	vsLIP	W 77-53	+3.5	W +27.5	150.5	U 130
Mar 7	vsCARK	L 63-73	+4.5	L −5.5	144.5	U 136

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

ILL

L 70-113

−13.5

GASO

L 94-95

−4.5

UTC

W 91-73

+19.5

SAM

W 77-62

+20.5

ORU

W 93-88

−6.5

RICE

W 78-63

+9.5

KENN

L 100-102

−3.5

FIU

L 83-89

−7.5

FAU

L 76-81

−2.5

UNM

L 59-75

−0.5

UCF

L 80-102

−4.5

CARK

L 83-85

−4.5

UNA

W 72-55

+14.5

APSU

L 71-82

−14.5

LIP

L 77-84

−9.5

QUC

L 74-85

−12.5

WGA

W 90-72

+8.5

APSU

L 62-83

−14.5

LIP

L 71-86

−9.5

UNA

W 72-64

−1.5

JAX

W 68-49

+20.5

EKU

L 74-76

−0.5

BELL

L 65-81

−18.5

UNF

W 90-81

−4.5

STET

W 78-76

−9.5

JAX

W 86-84

−4.5

CARK

W 75-71

+5.5

UNF

L 70-76

−12.5

STET

L 63-78

−20.5

UNA

W 69-58

+2.5

LIP

W 77-53

+27.5

CARK

L 63-73

−5.5

covered 9didn’t cover 23avg −1.8 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

ILL

L 70-113

+22.5

GASO

L 94-95

+25.5

UTC

W 91-73

+11.5

SAM

W 77-62

−15.5

ORU

W 93-88

+27.5

RICE

W 78-63

−8.5

KENN

L 100-102

+41.5

FIU

L 83-89

+17.5

FAU

L 76-81

+6.5

UNM

L 59-75

−25.5

UCF

L 80-102

+20.5

CARK

L 83-85

+11.5

UNA

W 72-55

−20.5

APSU

L 71-82

−0.5

LIP

L 77-84

+3.5

QUC

L 74-85

−7.5

WGA

W 90-72

+9.5

APSU

L 62-83

−10.5

LIP

L 71-86

+3.5

UNA

W 72-64

−11.5

JAX

W 68-49

−19.5

EKU

L 74-76

−4.5

BELL

L 65-81

−5.5

UNF

W 90-81

+7.5

STET

W 78-76

+5.5

JAX

W 86-84

+33.5

CARK

W 75-71

−6.5

UNF

L 70-76

−14.5

STET

L 63-78

−9.5

UNA

W 69-58

−12.5

LIP

W 77-53

−20.5

CARK

L 63-73

−8.5

over 15under 17avg +1.4 ptslonger = bigger margin

Line = the team’s closing spread (negative = favored). ATS number = points beyond the line; total number = combined points.

FIU has the better starters

Position by position: FIU 2, FGCU 0, even 3

FIUBetterFGCU

G T. Saine TR18.1 pts · 2.3 reb · 4.4 ast Score 91

FIUBig

G E. Brooks TR12.3 pts · 4.5 reb · 3.1 ast Score 47

G C. Caulker TR7.9 pts · 2.4 reb · 3.8 ast Score 22

Even

G D. Williams6.1 pts · 2 reb · 1 ast Score 21

G H. Cuevas TR2.6 pts · 1 reb · 0.6 ast Not ranked

No call

G G. Washington2.6 pts · 0.2 reb · 0.3 ast Not ranked

F J. Colonel TR4.6 pts · 7.3 reb · 1.3 ast Score 52

No call

F G. Tanner2.5 pts · 1.2 reb · 0.8 ast Not ranked

F R. Seals TR7.5 pts · 4 reb · 0.4 ast Score 61

FIUBig

C T. Guillouette2.9 pts · 2.6 reb · 0.6 ast Score 26

FIUBetterFGCU

FIU offense144th of 366 · -4.3

FIUBig

FGCU defense274th of 366 · -6.9

FIU defense217th of 366 · -5.7

Even

FGCU offense259th of 366 · -8.0

Backcourt-0.8 · 3 players

FIUBig

Backcourt-4.1 · 3 players

Frontcourt-0.0 · 2 players

FIUSmall

Frontcourt-1.2 · 2 players

Bench-0.9 · 1 player

Even

Bench-0.7 · 3 players

Score, worst to bestFIU betterFGCU betterTR transfer · NEW no Division I numbers

Projected starters: college teams publish no depth chart, so these come from minutes played, and a freshman or a new starter can change them. The score is the share of ranked players at the position that player is ahead of. Numbers are this season's once a player has 30 minutes, 2025-26's before that. Bench is the next five by minutes. Tap a player for the full numbers.

Depth chart

Projected rotation by position, starters outlined

FIU

Guards

T. Saine34 min · TRC. Caulker31 min · TRH. Cuevas13 min · TRN. MendyNewM. BlazerNewC. HallNew

Forwards

J. Colonel26 min · TRR. Seals18 min · TRJ. Payne7 min · TRG. GiceviciusNewC. RingNewS. N'DiayeNew

FGCU

Guards

E. Brooks30 min · TRD. Williams19 minG. Washington8 minM. McCarthy2 minB. WashingtonNewN. SermpezisNew

Forwards

G. Tanner8 minC. Outlaw2 min · TRB. LucasNewE. BarlowNewC. KoniecznyNewT. WestercampNew

Centers

T. Guillouette13 minJ. Houser6 min · TR

In order of minutes, from rosters as of today. ESPN lists players only as guards, forwards or centers, and no injury report exists for college basketball, so a player who is out may still show here.

Showing 2025-26 until both teams have played this season.

Matchup stats

2025-26 · rank among 365 teams

ChartTable

Scoring

Points per game

FIU77.7 #100

FGCU76.6 #130

Points per possession

FIU1.08 #197

FGCU1.10 #138

Pace (possessions)

FIU72.4 #26

FGCU69.9 #122

Shooting

Effective FG%

FIU50.6 #210

FGCU52.0 #147

3-point %

FIU34.7 #137

FGCU33.2 #219

3-point attempt rate

FIU32.8 #321

FGCU38.4 #202

Free throw rate

FIU38.6 #87

FGCU29.1 #331

Possessions

Turnover rate

FIU17.8 #258

FGCU16.0 #135

Offensive rebound rate

FIU33.9 #69

FGCU31.1 #161

Assists per game

FIU13.6 #173

FGCU14.5 #115

Defense

Points allowed

FIU79.1 #301

FGCU78.0 #266

Points allowed per possession

FIU1.09 #194

FGCU1.11 #254

Opponent effective FG%

FIU52.9 #264

FGCU53.4 #280

Opponent 3-point %

FIU36.2 #313

FGCU35.5 #275

Turnovers forced

FIU20.0 #22

FGCU16.4 #191

Defensive rebound rate

FIU65.2 #335

FGCU71.8 #73

Steals per game

FIU8.8 #12

FGCU7.7 #66

Blocks per game

FIU4.4 #43

FGCU3.4 #153

FIU		FGCU
Scoring
77.7 #100	Points per game	76.6 #130
1.08 #197	Points per possession	1.10 #138
72.4 #26	Pace (possessions)	69.9 #122
Shooting
50.6 #210	Effective FG%	52.0 #147
34.7 #137	3-point %	33.2 #219
32.8 #321	3-point attempt rate	38.4 #202
38.6 #87	Free throw rate	29.1 #331
Possessions
17.8 #258	Turnover rate	16.0 #135
33.9 #69	Offensive rebound rate	31.1 #161
13.6 #173	Assists per game	14.5 #115
Defense
79.1 #301	Points allowed	78.0 #266
1.09 #194	Points allowed per possession	1.11 #254
52.9 #264	Opponent effective FG%	53.4 #280
36.2 #313	Opponent 3-point %	35.5 #275
20.0 #22	Turnovers forced	16.4 #191
65.2 #335	Defensive rebound rate	71.8 #73
8.8 #12	Steals per game	7.7 #66
4.4 #43	Blocks per game	3.4 #153

From the box scores. A longer bar is a better national rank, on every row; the better team's bar is solid. A green rank is near the top of Division I, a red one near the bottom. Pace and 3-point rate are styles, so they have no better side.

FIU

12-17 in 2025-26 overall · 8-13 in conference · Conference USA

Last five, 2025-26

Lvs Missouri St72–75
Wvs Western KY92–67
Lvs MTSU67–73
W@ Louisiana Tech84–76
L@ Sam Houston67–100

A week or more of rest.

FGCU

14-18 in 2025-26 overall · 10-11 in conference · Atlantic Sun Conference

Last five, 2025-26

Lvs C Arkansas63–73
Wvs Lipscomb77–53
Wvs North Alabama69–58
L@ Stetson63–78
L@ North Florida70–76

A week or more of rest.

Florida International Panthers at Florida Gulf Coast Eagles

What could decide it: FGCU has more of the edges

Market

Model vs market

1st-half model

ATS

Totals

Last 10 games

Next 3 games

Recent meetings

ATS History · 2025-26

FIU

FGCU

FIU has the better starters

Depth chart

Matchup stats

FIU

FGCU