1. NCAAB
  2. Wed, Nov 18
  3. FGCU @ FAU
NCAAB · Wed, Nov 18

Florida Gulf Coast Eagles at Florida Atlantic Owls

Abessinio Court at Eleanor R. Baldwin Arena · at FAU
#266FGCUFGCU
@
#109FAUFAU
LineNo line yet 
Total— 
FGCUThis seasonFAU
0-0Record0-0
0-0ATS0-0
0-0O/U0-0

ATS = covered-didn’t-push · O/U = overs-unders

Model: projects FAU 85–70 · win probability FAU 90%
Pick this game
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Winner
Line
—
no line yet
Total
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model 154.2
Model edge
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No market line yet
Public
—
No split yet for this game
The model has not beaten the closing line: with an edge of 3 or more it went 409-367 in 2025-26. Model record

What could decide it: FAU has more of the edges

FGCU 1, FAU 6 · 2025-26 numbers until both teams have played three games
FAUBig
FAU offense vs FGCU defense
Offense 85th of 366 against a defense 274th, on the model’s ratings
Context
Schedule so far
FGCU has played the 231st-hardest schedule, FAU the 101st. A record against a soft schedule means less
FAUSmall
Shooting
Effective FG%: FGCU 52.0 and allows 53.4; FAU 52.2 and allows 49.5
FGCUSmall
Turnovers
Turnover rate: FGCU 16.0%, FAU 17.6%. Forced: FGCU 16.4%, FAU 15.5%
FAUSmall
FGCU offense vs FAU defense
Offense 259th of 366 against a defense 174th, on the model’s ratings
FAUSmall
Free throws
Free throw rate: FGCU 29.1, FAU 33.3. Allowed: FGCU 38.3, FAU 36.2
FAUSmall
Three-pointers
FGCU hits 33.2% and allows 35.5%; FAU hits 33.3% and allows 33.8%. Threes are 38.4% and 38.2% of their shots
FAUSmall
Home court
FAU at home. This season: FAU 0-0 at home, FGCU 0-0 away
Context
Tempo
About 70 possessions: FGCU plays 69.9 a game (122nd fastest), FAU 71.1 (71st). Faster games mean more points
Even
Who is back
Minutes back from last season: FGCU 25%, FAU 17%. Transfers in: FGCU 3, FAU 5. Early in a season, turnover makes teams harder to price
Even
Rebounding
Offensive rebound rate: FGCU 31.1%, FAU 31.6%. Defensive: FGCU 71.8%, FAU 71.7%
Sorted by how lopsided each matchup is, from national ranks. Reasons to look, not picks: the market already knows most of this.

Market

Open → current
Spread
Opening line not available
Total
 
Moneyline
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Pre-game lines only (ESPN, DraftKings first). After tip-off the line shown is the closing line.

Model vs market

MarketModelModel edge
Spread—FAU -14.7—
Total—154.2—
Projected score—FGCU 69.7 · FAU 84.5

1st-half model

1st-half slate ›
ModelActual
1H spreadFAU -8.6—
1H total72.1—
1H projected scoreFGCU 31.7 · FAU 40.4—
The 1st-half model is fitted from the full-game model and past halves. ESPN has no 1st-half lines for college games, so there is no market to compare it with.

FAU has the better starters

Position by position: FGCU 0, FAU 3, even 2
FGCUBetterFAU
G E. Brooks TR12.3 pts · 4.5 reb · 3.1 ast Score 47
FAUBig
G B. Speed TR15.8 pts · 4.4 reb · 3.7 ast Score 82
G D. Williams6.1 pts · 2 reb · 1 ast Score 21
FAUBig
G J. Hamilton TR17.8 pts · 4.5 reb · 2.2 ast Score 93
G G. Washington2.6 pts · 0.2 reb · 0.3 ast Not ranked
No call
G K. Carlyle14.5 pts · 3.7 reb · 2.8 ast Score 73
F G. Tanner2.5 pts · 1.2 reb · 0.8 ast Not ranked
No call
G M. Charles TR10.5 pts · 4 reb · 1.4 ast Score 32
C T. Guillouette2.9 pts · 2.6 reb · 0.6 ast Score 26
FAUSmall
F M. Porter-Brown TR7.8 pts · 3.2 reb · 0.6 ast Score 42
FGCUBetterFAU
FGCU offense259th of 366 · -8.0
FAUSmall
FAU defense174th of 366 · -3.9
FGCU defense274th of 366 · -6.9
FAUBig
FAU offense85th of 366 · +0.4
Backcourt-4.1 · 3 players
FAUBig
Backcourt+4.0 · 4 players
Frontcourt-1.2 · 2 players
Even
Frontcourt-0.6 · 1 player
Bench-0.7 · 3 players
Even
Bench-0.2 · 3 players
Score, worst to bestFGCU betterFAU betterTR transfer · NEW no Division I numbers
Projected starters: college teams publish no depth chart, so these come from minutes played, and a freshman or a new starter can change them. The score is the share of ranked players at the position that player is ahead of. Numbers are this season's once a player has 30 minutes, 2025-26's before that. Bench is the next five by minutes. Tap a player for the full numbers.

Depth chart

Projected rotation by position, starters outlined
FGCU
Guards
E. Brooks30 min · TRD. Williams19 minG. Washington8 minM. McCarthy2 minB. WashingtonNewN. SermpezisNew
Forwards
G. Tanner8 minC. Outlaw2 min · TRB. LucasNewE. BarlowNewC. KoniecznyNewT. WestercampNew
Centers
T. Guillouette13 minJ. Houser6 min · TR
FAU
Guards
B. Speed34 min · TRJ. Hamilton32 min · TRK. Carlyle31 minM. Charles30 min · TRL. Dayco-Green2 minL. Smith1 min
Forwards
M. Porter-Brown20 min · TRJ. HarrisNewM. PuodziukaitisNewD. MusisNew
Centers
K. Mullen6 min · TRT. IfaolaNew
In order of minutes, from rosters as of today. ESPN lists players only as guards, forwards or centers, and no injury report exists for college basketball, so a player who is out may still show here.
Showing 2025-26 until both teams have played this season.

Matchup stats

2025-26 · rank among 365 teams
Scoring
Shooting
Possessions
Defense
FGCUFAU
Scoring
76.6 #130Points per game77.2 #111
1.10 #138Points per possession1.09 #170
69.9 #122Pace (possessions)71.1 #71
Shooting
52.0 #147Effective FG%52.2 #135
33.2 #2193-point %33.3 #210
38.4 #2023-point attempt rate38.2 #208
29.1 #331Free throw rate33.3 #231
Possessions
16.0 #135Turnover rate17.6 #246
31.1 #161Offensive rebound rate31.6 #140
14.5 #115Assists per game13.0 #210
Defense
78.0 #266Points allowed75.3 #198
1.11 #254Points allowed per possession1.06 #108
53.4 #280Opponent effective FG%49.5 #81
35.5 #275Opponent 3-point %33.8 #169
16.4 #191Turnovers forced15.5 #252
71.8 #73Defensive rebound rate71.7 #78
7.7 #66Steals per game5.7 #272
3.4 #153Blocks per game5.3 #11
From the box scores. A longer bar is a better national rank, on every row; the better team's bar is solid. A green rank is near the top of Division I, a red one near the bottom. Pace and 3-point rate are styles, so they have no better side.

FGCU

14-18 in 2025-26 overall · 10-11 in conference · Atlantic Sun Conference

Last five, 2025-26
  • Lvs C Arkansas63–73
  • Wvs Lipscomb77–53
  • Wvs North Alabama69–58
  • L@ Stetson63–78
  • L@ North Florida70–76

A week or more of rest.

FAU

16-15 in 2025-26 overall · 10-10 in conference · American Conference

Last five, 2025-26
  • Lvs North Texas70–74
  • Wvs Temple63–59
  • L@ Wichita St70–88
  • Wvs Charlotte77–76
  • Wvs Temple77–73

A week or more of rest.