Columbia Lions at Bucknell Bison: Model Line and Edge

Fri, Nov 13, 7:00 PM ETSojka Pavilion · at Bucknell

LineNo line yet

Total—

Season records: Columbia and Bucknell
COLU	This season	BUCK
0-0	Record	0-0
0-0	ATS	0-0
0-0	O/U	0-0

ATS = covered-didn’t-push · O/U = overs-unders

Model: projects COLU 75–70 · win probability COLU 67%

Pick this game

Your picksMy picks ›

Winner

Line

—

no line yet

Total

—

model 145.4

Model edge

—

No market line yet

Public

—

No split yet for this game

The model has not beaten the closing line: with an edge of 3 or more it went 409-367 in 2025-26. Model record

What could decide it: COLU has more of the edges

COLU 5, BUCK 2 · 2025-26 numbers until both teams have played three games

COLUBig

Rebounding

Offensive rebound rate: COLU 36.0%, BUCK 27.0%. Defensive: COLU 72.8%, BUCK 68.7%

COLUBig

Shooting

Effective FG%: COLU 53.5 and allows 51.2; BUCK 48.5 and allows 54.7

COLUBig

Three-pointers

COLU hits 35.9% and allows 35.2%; BUCK hits 30.6% and allows 37.0%. Threes are 37.5% and 42.8% of their shots

COLUBig

BUCK offense vs COLU defense

Offense 317th of 366 against a defense 198th, on the model’s ratings

BUCKSmall

Turnovers

Turnover rate: COLU 19.3%, BUCK 18.9%. Forced: COLU 15.1%, BUCK 17.9%

COLUSmall

COLU offense vs BUCK defense

Offense 163rd of 366 against a defense 237th, on the model’s ratings

Context

Schedule so far

COLU has played the 169th-hardest schedule, BUCK the 227th. A record against a soft schedule means less

BUCKSmall

Home court

BUCK at home. This season: BUCK 0-0 at home, COLU 0-0 away

Even

Who is back

Minutes back from last season: COLU 61%, BUCK 39%. Transfers in: COLU 1, BUCK 2. Early in a season, turnover makes teams harder to price

Even

Free throws

Free throw rate: COLU 28.6, BUCK 29.8. Allowed: COLU 33.5, BUCK 35.3

Context

Tempo

About 68 possessions: COLU plays 67.8 a game (237th fastest), BUCK 67.7 (242nd). Faster games mean more points

Sorted by how lopsided each matchup is, from national ranks. Reasons to look, not picks: the market already knows most of this.

Model vs market

	Market	Model	Model edge
Spread	—	COLU -5.1	—
Total	—	145.4	—
Projected score	—	COLU 75.2 · BUCK 70.1

1st-half model

1st-half slate ›

	Model	Actual
1H spread	COLU -3.1	—
1H total	68.0	—
1H projected score	COLU 35.6 · BUCK 32.4	—

The 1st-half model is fitted from the full-game model and past halves. ESPN has no 1st-half lines for college games, so there is no market to compare it with.

Showing 2025-26 until both teams have played this season.

ATS

2025-26 season

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
COLU WLWWL	14-12	54%	7-7	—
BUCK LWLWW	14-19	42%	5-9	—

Venue/role: COLU away; BUCK home. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

2025-26 season

	O-U	Over %	SU
COLU OUOUO	14-12	54%	14-12
BUCK UOOUO	13-20	39%	10-23

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Tap for the score and line.

Last 10 games

2025-26

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
COLU	4-6 40%	5-5 50%	4-6 40%
BUCK	3-7 30%	4-6 40%	5-5 50%

Wins-losses (pushes last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Next 3 games

With how the last meeting with each opponent went

Columbia

Date	Game	Last meeting
Nov 16	@ NU	No recent meeting
Nov 21	@ BU	W54–49WU
Nov 25	vs SPU	No recent meeting

Bucknell

Date	Game	Last meeting
Nov 17	vs AKR	L77–97WO
Nov 21	vs SIE	L58–71LU
Nov 24	@ COR	L72–101LO

Last meeting: result, against the spread, over / under. Hover a result for its date.

ATS History · 2025-26

WwinLloss·Wats winLats lossPpush·Owent over the totalUwent under the total

Columbia

26 games played

Straight up

14-12

54% wins

Against the spread

14-12

54% covers · avg +0.1 pts vs the line

Over / Under

14-12

54% overs · avg −1.4 pts vs the total

Straight up

14-1254%

W L W W W W W W W L L W W L L L W W L L L W L W L L

2 straight losses1 of last 4 won

Against the spread

14-1254%

W W W W W W W L W L L L W L L L W W L L L W L W W L

2 of last 4 coveredno streak

Over / Under

14-1254%

U U O U O O O U O O U O O U O O U U O U U O U O U O

2 of last 4 overno streak

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Nov 7	@NHVN	W 71-53	-7.5	W +10.5	148.5	U 124
Nov 10	@CONN	L 62-89	+32.5	W +5.5	155.5	U 151
Nov 13	vsUML	W 86-72	-13.5	W +0.5	156.5	O 158
Nov 18	vsBU	W 54-49	-4.5	W +0.5	144.5	U 103
Nov 21	@LEH	W 82-67	-2.5	W +12.5	143.5	O 149
Nov 23	vsLONG	W 95-70	-3.5	W +21.5	153.5	O 165
Nov 26	@FAIR	W 106-77	-3.5	W +25.5	150.5	O 183
Dec 3	vsHOF	W 72-70	-3.5	L −1.5	144.5	U 142
Dec 6	vsUALB	W 93-65	-13.5	W +14.5	144.5	O 158
Dec 9	@STBK	L 73-77	-4.5	L −8.5	146.5	O 150
Dec 21	@CAL	L 56-74	+8.5	L −9.5	153.5	U 130
Dec 28	@UNF	W 90-82	-11.5	L −3.5	162.5	O 172
Jan 5	@COR	W 104-99	+3.5	W +8.5	170.5	O 203
Jan 10	vsHARV	L 54-79	-5.5	L −30.5	145.5	U 133
Jan 17	@BRWN	L 80-86	-2.5	L −8.5	143.5	O 166
Jan 19	@YALE	L 74-91	+9.5	L −7.5	150.5	O 165
Jan 24	@DART	W 79-69	-2.5	W +7.5	156.5	U 148
Jan 30	vsPENN	W 72-67	-4.5	W +0.5	153.5	U 139
Jan 31	vsPRIN	L 68-80	-5.5	L −17.5	139.5	O 148
Feb 7	vsCOR	L 67-88	+1.5	L −19.5	171.5	U 155
Feb 13	@PENN	L 67-76	+1.5	L −7.5	148.5	U 143
Feb 14	@PRIN	W 75-65	-1.5	W +8.5	137.5	O 140
Feb 21	vsDART	L 63-64	-6.5	L −7.5	150.5	U 127
Feb 27	vsBRWN	W 80-62	-5.5	W +12.5	140.5	O 142
Feb 28	vsYALE	L 54-60	+6.5	W +0.5	147.5	U 114
Mar 6	@HARV	L 71-81	+4.5	L −5.5	136.5	O 152

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

NHVN

W 71-53

+10.5

CONN

L 62-89

+5.5

UML

W 86-72

+0.5

W 54-49

+0.5

LEH

W 82-67

+12.5

LONG

W 95-70

+21.5

FAIR

W 106-77

+25.5

HOF

W 72-70

−1.5

UALB

W 93-65

+14.5

STBK

L 73-77

−8.5

CAL

L 56-74

−9.5

UNF

W 90-82

−3.5

COR

W 104-99

+8.5

HARV

L 54-79

−30.5

BRWN

L 80-86

−8.5

YALE

L 74-91

−7.5

DART

W 79-69

+7.5

PENN

W 72-67

+0.5

PRIN

L 68-80

−17.5

COR

L 67-88

−19.5

PENN

L 67-76

−7.5

PRIN

W 75-65

+8.5

DART

L 63-64

−7.5

BRWN

W 80-62

+12.5

YALE

L 54-60

+0.5

HARV

L 71-81

−5.5

covered 14didn’t cover 12avg +0.1 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

NHVN

W 71-53

−24.5

CONN

L 62-89

−4.5

UML

W 86-72

+1.5

W 54-49

−41.5

LEH

W 82-67

+5.5

LONG

W 95-70

+11.5

FAIR

W 106-77

+32.5

HOF

W 72-70

−2.5

UALB

W 93-65

+13.5

STBK

L 73-77

+3.5

CAL

L 56-74

−23.5

UNF

W 90-82

+9.5

COR

W 104-99

+32.5

HARV

L 54-79

−12.5

BRWN

L 80-86

+22.5

YALE

L 74-91

+14.5

DART

W 79-69

−8.5

PENN

W 72-67

−14.5

PRIN

L 68-80

+8.5

COR

L 67-88

−16.5

PENN

L 67-76

−5.5

PRIN

W 75-65

+2.5

DART

L 63-64

−23.5

BRWN

W 80-62

+1.5

YALE

L 54-60

−33.5

HARV

L 71-81

+15.5

over 14under 12avg −1.4 ptslonger = bigger margin

Bucknell

33 games played

Straight up

10-23

30% wins

Against the spread

14-19

42% covers · avg −3.7 pts vs the line

Over / Under

13-20

39% overs · avg +1.4 pts vs the total

Straight up

10-2330%

W W L L L L L L L L L W L L W L W W L L L L W W L L L L L W L W L

2 of last 4 wonno streak

Against the spread

14-1942%

W W L L L L W W L W L W L L W L L W L L L W W W L L L L L W L W W

2 straight covers3 of last 4 covered

Over / Under

13-2039%

U U U O U U U U O O U U U U U U U O O O U O O U U O O U U O O U O

3 of last 4 overno streak

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Nov 3	vsDEL	W 78-70	-2.5	W +5.5	149.5	U 148
Nov 7	@MSM	W 73-62	+1.5	W +12.5	143.5	U 135
Nov 11	@PRIN	L 63-73	+4.5	L −5.5	146.5	U 136
Nov 14	vsHOF	L 77-83	+4.5	L −1.5	139.5	O 160
Nov 17	@PITT	L 50-84	+16.5	L −17.5	141.5	U 134
Nov 20	@SJU	L 49-97	+28.5	L −19.5	158.5	U 146
Nov 24	vsBGSU	L 66-71	+10.5	W +5.5	144.5	U 137
Nov 26	vsBUF	L 71-73	+4.5	W +2.5	146.5	U 144
Nov 30	vsCOR	L 72-101	+5.5	L −23.5	159.5	O 173
Dec 3	@AKR	L 77-97	+23.5	W +3.5	157.5	O 174
Dec 6	vsUMBC	L 66-73	-1.5	L −8.5	143.5	U 139
Dec 9	@RID	W 51-38	-2.5	W +10.5	135.5	U 89
Dec 20	@IOWA	L 39-94	+25.5	L −29.5	133.5	U 133
Dec 31	@HC	L 58-65	-1.5	L −8.5	133.5	U 123
Jan 3	vsLEH	W 72-65	-4.5	W +2.5	137.5	U 137
Jan 7	@NAVY	L 55-76	+8.5	L −12.5	137.5	U 131
Jan 10	vsL-MD	W 70-67	-6.5	L −3.5	143.5	U 137
Jan 14	vsLAF	W 76-69	-2.5	W +4.5	137.5	O 145
Jan 17	@COLG	L 76-95	+8.5	L −10.5	139.5	O 171
Jan 21	vsARMY	L 84-87	-4.5	L −7.5	144.5	O 171
Jan 24	@L-MD	L 62-67	+2.5	L −2.5	147.5	U 129
Jan 28	@LAF	L 79-81	+4.5	W +2.5	138.5	O 160
Jan 31	vsBU	W 103-97	+1.5	W +7.5	138.5	O 200
Feb 4	@AMER	W 60-59	+7.5	W +8.5	141.5	U 119
Feb 7	vsCOLG	L 59-78	+5.5	L −13.5	141.5	U 137
Feb 9	vsNAVY	L 60-76	+6.5	L −9.5	135.5	O 136
Feb 14	@BU	L 69-82	+5.5	L −7.5	137.5	O 151
Feb 18	vsAMER	L 57-75	+3.5	L −14.5	140.5	U 132
Feb 22	vsHC	L 63-72	-2.5	L −11.5	142.5	U 135
Feb 25	@ARMY	W 75-73	+2.5	W +4.5	142.5	O 148
Feb 28	@LEH	L 79-89	+5.5	L −4.5	138.5	O 168
Mar 3	vsARMY	W 65-55	-1.5	W +8.5	144.5	U 120
Mar 5	@NAVY	L 69-74	+15.5	W +10.5	133.5	O 143

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

DEL

W 78-70

+5.5

MSM

W 73-62

+12.5

PRIN

L 63-73

−5.5

HOF

L 77-83

−1.5

PITT

L 50-84

−17.5

SJU

L 49-97

−19.5

BGSU

L 66-71

+5.5

BUF

L 71-73

+2.5

COR

L 72-101

−23.5

AKR

L 77-97

+3.5

UMBC

L 66-73

−8.5

RID

W 51-38

+10.5

IOWA

L 39-94

−29.5

L 58-65

−8.5

LEH

W 72-65

+2.5

NAVY

L 55-76

−12.5

L-MD

W 70-67

−3.5

LAF

W 76-69

+4.5

COLG

L 76-95

−10.5

ARMY

L 84-87

−7.5

L-MD

L 62-67

−2.5

LAF

L 79-81

+2.5

W 103-97

+7.5

AMER

W 60-59

+8.5

COLG

L 59-78

−13.5

NAVY

L 60-76

−9.5

L 69-82

−7.5

AMER

L 57-75

−14.5

L 63-72

−11.5

ARMY

W 75-73

+4.5

LEH

L 79-89

−4.5

ARMY

W 65-55

+8.5

NAVY

L 69-74

+10.5

covered 14didn’t cover 19avg −3.7 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

DEL

W 78-70

−1.5

MSM

W 73-62

−8.5

PRIN

L 63-73

−10.5

HOF

L 77-83

+20.5

PITT

L 50-84

−7.5

SJU

L 49-97

−12.5

BGSU

L 66-71

−7.5

BUF

L 71-73

−2.5

COR

L 72-101

+13.5

AKR

L 77-97

+16.5

UMBC

L 66-73

−4.5

RID

W 51-38

−46.5

IOWA

L 39-94

−0.5

L 58-65

−10.5

LEH

W 72-65

−0.5

NAVY

L 55-76

−6.5

L-MD

W 70-67

−6.5

LAF

W 76-69

+7.5

COLG

L 76-95

+31.5

ARMY

L 84-87

+26.5

L-MD

L 62-67

−18.5

LAF

L 79-81

+21.5

W 103-97

+61.5

AMER

W 60-59

−22.5

COLG

L 59-78

−4.5

NAVY

L 60-76

+0.5

L 69-82

+13.5

AMER

L 57-75

−8.5

L 63-72

−7.5

ARMY

W 75-73

+5.5

LEH

L 79-89

+29.5

ARMY

W 65-55

−24.5

NAVY

L 69-74

+9.5

over 13under 20avg +1.4 ptslonger = bigger margin

Line = the team’s closing spread (negative = favored). ATS number = points beyond the line; total number = combined points.

Columbia has the better starters

Position by position: Columbia 4, Bucknell 0, even 1

ColumbiaBetterBucknell

G M. Franklin9.4 pts · 4.1 reb · 1 ast Score 48

COLUSmall

G J. Williams7.5 pts · 2.9 reb · 4 ast Score 23

G G. O'Keefe7.9 pts · 1.8 reb · 0.9 ast Score 45

COLUSmall

G A. Pachucki5.9 pts · 2.8 reb · 0.8 ast Score 25

G H. Sanders4.2 pts · 1.7 reb · 1.8 ast Score 38

No call

G K. Marshall TR3.5 pts · 2.8 reb · 2 ast Not ranked

F M. Ritter6.9 pts · 5 reb · 1.7 ast Score 21

COLUSmall

G J. Meachem1.5 pts · 0.5 reb · 1.6 ast Score 2

F C. Igoe8.2 pts · 5.4 reb · 2.8 ast Score 72

COLUBig

F L. Soroa Schaller TR5.6 pts · 3.4 reb · 2.2 ast Score 13

ColumbiaBetterBucknell

COLU offense163rd of 366 · -4.9

COLUSmall

BUCK defense237th of 366 · -6.2

COLU defense198th of 366 · -4.8

COLUSmall

BUCK offense317th of 366 · -10.4

Backcourt-2.1 · 3 players

COLUBig

Backcourt-6.2 · 4 players

Frontcourt-1.1 · 2 players

Even

Frontcourt-2.0 · 1 player

Bench-1.9 · 4 players

Even

Bench-0.9 · 3 players

Score, worst to bestCOLU betterBUCK betterTR transfer · NEW no Division I numbers

Projected starters: college teams publish no depth chart, so these come from minutes played, and a freshman or a new starter can change them. The score is the share of ranked players at the position that player is ahead of. Numbers are this season's once a player has 30 minutes, 2025-26's before that. Bench is the next five by minutes. Tap a player for the full numbers.

Depth chart

Projected rotation by position, starters outlined

Columbia

Guards

M. Franklin24 minG. O'Keefe21 minH. Sanders15 minJ. Cunningham4 minD. VesseyNewN. RomanelliNew

Forwards

M. Ritter25 minC. Igoe20 minD. Langford11 min · TRR. Nweke8 minL. Coleman4 minN. ClarksonNew

Bucknell

Guards

J. Williams33 minA. Pachucki21 minK. Marshall17 min · TRJ. Meachem10 minM. Lange3 minR. LamunoNew

Forwards

L. Soroa Schaller21 min · TRP. O'Brien10 minK. Welch2 minE. Marten-ConeyNewL. BergsengNewA. RousseauNew

Centers

D. KennardNew

In order of minutes, from rosters as of today. ESPN lists players only as guards, forwards or centers, and no injury report exists for college basketball, so a player who is out may still show here.

Showing 2025-26 until both teams have played this season.

Matchup stats

2025-26 · rank among 365 teams

ChartTable

Scoring

Points per game

COLU74.9 #167

BUCK67.4 #327

Points per possession

COLU1.10 #130

BUCK0.99 #332

Pace (possessions)

COLU67.8 #237

BUCK67.7 #242

Shooting

Effective FG%

COLU53.5 #83

BUCK48.5 #304

3-point %

COLU35.9 #61

BUCK30.6 #328

3-point attempt rate

COLU37.5 #221

BUCK42.8 #123

Free throw rate

COLU28.6 #337

BUCK29.8 #314

Possessions

Turnover rate

COLU19.3 #332

BUCK18.9 #319

Offensive rebound rate

COLU36.0 #23

BUCK27.0 #295

Assists per game

COLU15.0 #90

BUCK12.7 #235

Defense

Points allowed

COLU73.5 #145

BUCK76.3 #226

Points allowed per possession

COLU1.09 #188

BUCK1.13 #289

Opponent effective FG%

COLU51.2 #168

BUCK54.7 #323

Opponent 3-point %

COLU35.2 #258

BUCK37.0 #344

Turnovers forced

COLU15.1 #282

BUCK17.9 #100

Defensive rebound rate

COLU72.8 #42

BUCK68.7 #216

Steals per game

COLU5.7 #270

BUCK7.2 #105

Blocks per game

COLU3.0 #235

BUCK1.8 #354

COLU		BUCK
Scoring
74.9 #167	Points per game	67.4 #327
1.10 #130	Points per possession	0.99 #332
67.8 #237	Pace (possessions)	67.7 #242
Shooting
53.5 #83	Effective FG%	48.5 #304
35.9 #61	3-point %	30.6 #328
37.5 #221	3-point attempt rate	42.8 #123
28.6 #337	Free throw rate	29.8 #314
Possessions
19.3 #332	Turnover rate	18.9 #319
36.0 #23	Offensive rebound rate	27.0 #295
15.0 #90	Assists per game	12.7 #235
Defense
73.5 #145	Points allowed	76.3 #226
1.09 #188	Points allowed per possession	1.13 #289
51.2 #168	Opponent effective FG%	54.7 #323
35.2 #258	Opponent 3-point %	37.0 #344
15.1 #282	Turnovers forced	17.9 #100
72.8 #42	Defensive rebound rate	68.7 #216
5.7 #270	Steals per game	7.2 #105
3.0 #235	Blocks per game	1.8 #354

From the box scores. A longer bar is a better national rank, on every row; the better team's bar is solid. A green rank is near the top of Division I, a red one near the bottom. Pace and 3-point rate are styles, so they have no better side.

Columbia

14-12 in 2025-26 overall · 5-9 in conference · Ivy League

Last five, 2025-26

L@ Harvard71–81
Lvs Yale54–60
Wvs Brown80–62
Lvs Dartmouth63–64
W@ Princeton75–65

A week or more of rest.

Bucknell

10-23 in 2025-26 overall · 7-13 in conference · Patriot League

Last five, 2025-26

L@ Navy69–74
Wvs Army65–55
L@ Lehigh79–89
W@ Army75–73
Lvs Holy Cross63–72

A week or more of rest.

Columbia Lions at Bucknell Bison

What could decide it: COLU has more of the edges

Market

Model vs market

1st-half model

ATS

Totals

Last 10 games

Next 3 games

ATS History · 2025-26

Columbia

Bucknell

Columbia has the better starters

Depth chart

Matchup stats

Columbia

Bucknell