1. NCAAB
  2. Sat, Nov 21
  3. TROY vs VAL
NCAAB · Sat, Nov 21

Troy Trojans vs Valparaiso Beacons

Pensacola Bay Center · Neutral site
#147TROYTroy
vs
#176VALValparaiso
LineNo line yet 
Total— 
TROYThis seasonVAL
0-0Record0-0
0-0ATS0-0
0-0O/U0-0

ATS = covered-didn’t-push · O/U = overs-unders

Model: projects TROY 74–73 · win probability TROY 51%
Pick this game
Your picksMy picks ›
Winner
Line
—
no line yet
Total
—
model 146.8
Model edge
—
No market line yet
Public
—
No split yet for this game
The model has not beaten the closing line: with an edge of 3 or more it went 409-367 in 2025-26. Model record

What could decide it: VAL has more of the edges

TROY 1, VAL 2 · 2025-26 numbers until both teams have played three games
TROYSmall
Shooting
Effective FG%: TROY 51.5 and allows 50.2; VAL 47.6 and allows 50.5
VALSmall
Who is back
Minutes back from last season: TROY 11%, VAL 51%. Transfers in: TROY 6, VAL 2. Early in a season, turnover makes teams harder to price
VALSmall
Turnovers
Turnover rate: TROY 17.3%, VAL 15.7%. Forced: TROY 16.7%, VAL 16.9%
Context
Tempo
About 68 possessions: TROY plays 69.6 a game (141st fastest), VAL 67.4 (258th). Faster games mean more points
Even
VAL offense vs TROY defense
Offense 199th of 366 against a defense 162nd, on the model’s ratings
Even
TROY offense vs VAL defense
Offense 143rd of 366 against a defense 170th, on the model’s ratings
Context
Schedule so far
TROY has played the 166th-hardest schedule, VAL the 143rd. A record against a soft schedule means less
Even
Three-pointers
TROY hits 33.0% and allows 31.6%; VAL hits 33.9% and allows 32.1%. Threes are 45.9% and 36.8% of their shots
Even
Rebounding
Offensive rebound rate: TROY 34.5%, VAL 32.5%. Defensive: TROY 68.3%, VAL 69.9%
Even
Free throws
Free throw rate: TROY 36.2, VAL 39.1. Allowed: TROY 31.4, VAL 35.1
Context
Neutral floor
No home court: the model takes it out of the line
Sorted by how lopsided each matchup is, from national ranks. Reasons to look, not picks: the market already knows most of this.

Market

Open → current
Spread
Opening line not available
Total
 
Moneyline
—

Pre-game lines only (ESPN, DraftKings first). After tip-off the line shown is the closing line.

Model vs market

MarketModelModel edge
Spread—TROY -0.2—
Total—146.8—
Projected score—TROY 73.5 · VAL 73.3

1st-half model

1st-half slate ›
ModelActual
1H spreadTROY -0.3—
1H total68.7—
1H projected scoreTROY 34.5 · VAL 34.2—
The 1st-half model is fitted from the full-game model and past halves. ESPN has no 1st-half lines for college games, so there is no market to compare it with.

The starting fives are even

Position by position: Troy 1, Valparaiso 1, even 3
TroyBetterValparaiso
G R. Davis TR9.9 pts · 2.6 reb · 1.4 ast Score 14
VALBig
G R. Chaney10.6 pts · 3.4 reb · 2.8 ast Score 62
G D. Oday TR18.9 pts · 3.6 reb · 1.9 ast Score 95
TROYBig
G B. Alocen TR6.4 pts · 2.8 reb · 1.5 ast Score 34
G J. Hutchinson TR12.1 pts · 3.4 reb · 3.3 ast Score 76
Even
G J. McNair7.9 pts · 1.8 reb · 1.1 ast Score 65
F C. Diggs TR10.3 pts · 3.7 reb · 0.9 ast Score 59
Even
F J. Pettigrew12.6 pts · 6.9 reb · 1.8 ast Score 70
F K. Kiel3.6 pts · 3.5 reb · 1 ast Score 23
Even
F C. Hopoi3.5 pts · 2.3 reb · 0.6 ast Score 23
TroyBetterValparaiso
TROY offense143rd of 366 · -4.3
Even
VAL defense170th of 366 · -3.9
TROY defense162nd of 366 · -3.6
Even
VAL offense199th of 366 · -6.1
Backcourt+1.4 · 3 players
TROYSmall
Backcourt-1.1 · 3 players
Frontcourt-1.0 · 2 players
Even
Frontcourt-0.1 · 2 players
Bench-2.0 · 4 players
VALSmall
Bench-0.5 · 4 players
Score, worst to bestTROY betterVAL betterTR transfer · NEW no Division I numbers
Projected starters: college teams publish no depth chart, so these come from minutes played, and a freshman or a new starter can change them. The score is the share of ranked players at the position that player is ahead of. Numbers are this season's once a player has 30 minutes, 2025-26's before that. Bench is the next five by minutes. Tap a player for the full numbers.

Depth chart

Projected rotation by position, starters outlined
Troy
Guards
R. Davis31 min · TRD. Oday30 min · TRJ. Hutchinson29 min · TRH. Awata2 minJ. KontuniemiNewR. ValakouNew
Forwards
C. Diggs23 min · TRK. Kiel16 minM. Ikegwuruka13 min · TRS. Walters9 min · TRE. Griffin5 min
Centers
A. PachecoNew
Valparaiso
Guards
R. Chaney29 minB. Alocen22 min · TRJ. McNair18 minS. Servilus10 minN. Lombardi1 minC. Webster1 min
Forwards
J. Pettigrew28 minC. Hopoi15 minK. WalkerNewG. RichardsonNewH. ScrogginsNew
Centers
K. Yu8 min · TR
In order of minutes, from rosters as of today. ESPN lists players only as guards, forwards or centers, and no injury report exists for college basketball, so a player who is out may still show here.
Showing 2025-26 until both teams have played this season.

Matchup stats

2025-26 · rank among 365 teams
Scoring
Shooting
Possessions
Defense
TROYVAL
Scoring
77.3 #110Points per game71.2 #263
1.11 #113Points per possession1.06 #233
69.6 #141Pace (possessions)67.4 #258
Shooting
51.5 #171Effective FG%47.6 #322
33.0 #2293-point %33.9 #180
45.9 #473-point attempt rate36.8 #234
36.2 #147Free throw rate39.1 #79
Possessions
17.3 #226Turnover rate15.7 #116
34.5 #59Offensive rebound rate32.5 #110
15.0 #86Assists per game11.7 #307
Defense
74.5 #178Points allowed71.9 #103
1.07 #128Points allowed per possession1.06 #116
50.2 #111Opponent effective FG%50.5 #130
31.6 #47Opponent 3-point %32.1 #70
16.7 #173Turnovers forced16.9 #161
68.3 #243Defensive rebound rate69.9 #167
7.2 #107Steals per game5.9 #245
3.3 #169Blocks per game3.6 #124
From the box scores. A longer bar is a better national rank, on every row; the better team's bar is solid. A green rank is near the top of Division I, a red one near the bottom. Pace and 3-point rate are styles, so they have no better side.

Troy

20-12 in 2025-26 overall · 14-6 in conference · Sun Belt Conference

Last five, 2025-26
  • Lvs Nebraska47–76
  • Wvs GA Southern77–61
  • Wvs Southern Miss78–70
  • Wvs UL Monroe80–65
  • Wvs Louisiana78–59

A week or more of rest.

Valparaiso

17-15 in 2025-26 overall · 12-10 in conference · Missouri Valley Conference

Last five, 2025-26
  • Lvs Bradley84–90
  • Wvs Indiana St63–62
  • L@ Evansville79–80
  • Wvs Drake74–71
  • W@ UIC71–67

A week or more of rest.