1. NCAAB
  2. Fri, Nov 13
  3. SEMO @ MTSU
NCAAB · Fri, Nov 13

Southeast Missouri State Redhawks at Middle Tennessee Blue Raiders

Murphy Center · at MTSU
#306SEMOSE Missouri
@
#154MTSUMTSU
LineNo line yet 
Total— 
SEMOThis seasonMTSU
0-0Record0-0
0-0ATS0-0
0-0O/U0-0

ATS = covered-didn’t-push · O/U = overs-unders

Model: projects MTSU 79–68 · win probability MTSU 82%
Pick this game
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Winner
Line
—
no line yet
Total
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model 146.3
Model edge
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No market line yet
Public
—
No split yet for this game
The model has not beaten the closing line: with an edge of 3 or more it went 409-367 in 2025-26. Model record

What could decide it: MTSU has more of the edges

SEMO 1, MTSU 4 · 2025-26 numbers until both teams have played three games
Context
Schedule so far
SEMO has played the 351st-hardest schedule, MTSU the 132nd. A record against a soft schedule means less
MTSUBig
SEMO offense vs MTSU defense
Offense 312th of 366 against a defense 167th, on the model’s ratings
MTSUBig
MTSU offense vs SEMO defense
Offense 158th of 366 against a defense 284th, on the model’s ratings
SEMOBig
Turnovers
Turnover rate: SEMO 16.8%, MTSU 17.1%. Forced: SEMO 18.1%, MTSU 14.9%
Context
Tempo
About 69 possessions: SEMO plays 70.2 a game (109th fastest), MTSU 68.3 (216th). Faster games mean more points
MTSUSmall
Home court
MTSU at home. This season: MTSU 0-0 at home, SEMO 0-0 away
MTSUSmall
Three-pointers
SEMO hits 30.9% and allows 33.1%; MTSU hits 33.8% and allows 34.0%. Threes are 36.0% and 45.3% of their shots
Even
Rebounding
Offensive rebound rate: SEMO 29.6%, MTSU 30.7%. Defensive: SEMO 71.8%, MTSU 71.5%
Even
Shooting
Effective FG%: SEMO 49.8 and allows 48.8; MTSU 51.6 and allows 51.0
Even
Who is back
Minutes back from last season: SEMO 26%, MTSU 30%. Transfers in: SEMO 1, MTSU 3. Early in a season, turnover makes teams harder to price
Even
Free throws
Free throw rate: SEMO 38.8, MTSU 32.7. Allowed: SEMO 48.0, MTSU 35.7
Sorted by how lopsided each matchup is, from national ranks. Reasons to look, not picks: the market already knows most of this.

Market

Open → current
Spread
Opening line not available
Total
 
Moneyline
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Pre-game lines only (ESPN, DraftKings first). After tip-off the line shown is the closing line.

Model vs market

MarketModelModel edge
Spread—MTSU -10.7—
Total—146.3—
Projected score—SEMO 67.8 · MTSU 78.5

1st-half model

1st-half slate ›
ModelActual
1H spreadMTSU -6.2—
1H total68.4—
1H projected scoreSEMO 31.1 · MTSU 37.3—
The 1st-half model is fitted from the full-game model and past halves. ESPN has no 1st-half lines for college games, so there is no market to compare it with.

MTSU has the better starters

Position by position: SE Missouri 1, MTSU 2, even 2
SE MissouriBetterMTSU
G M. Bell8.6 pts · 5 reb · 1.7 ast Score 69
SEMOSmall
G K. de Kovachich TR11.6 pts · 2.2 reb · 2 ast Score 40
G L. Blocker4.8 pts · 3.6 reb · 0.5 ast Score 33
MTSUSmall
G J. Carter10.3 pts · 3.2 reb · 3.5 ast Score 63
G P. Farmer1.6 pts · 1.3 reb · 0.8 ast Score 11
MTSUSmall
G E. Rice TR6.7 pts · 1.7 reb · 0.2 ast Score 43
F D. Sutton TR3.8 pts · 3.9 reb · 0.7 ast Score 63
Even
F O. Naveh TR11 pts · 5.9 reb · 1.8 ast Score 52
F T. Sadler0.2 pts · 0.1 reb · 0 ast Not ranked
No call
C L. Jovanovic2.1 pts · 2.9 reb · 0.4 ast Score 26
SE MissouriBetterMTSU
SEMO offense312th of 366 · -10.0
MTSUBig
MTSU defense167th of 366 · -3.7
SEMO defense284th of 366 · -7.1
MTSUSmall
MTSU offense158th of 366 · -4.7
Backcourt-1.7 · 3 players
Even
Backcourt-2.0 · 3 players
Frontcourt+0.0 · 2 players
SEMOSmall
Frontcourt-1.1 · 2 players
BenchNo numbers yet
No call
Bench-0.1 · 2 players
Score, worst to bestSEMO betterMTSU betterTR transfer · NEW no Division I numbers
Projected starters: college teams publish no depth chart, so these come from minutes played, and a freshman or a new starter can change them. The score is the share of ranked players at the position that player is ahead of. Numbers are this season's once a player has 30 minutes, 2025-26's before that. Bench is the next five by minutes. Tap a player for the full numbers.

Depth chart

Projected rotation by position, starters outlined
SE Missouri
Guards
M. Bell22 minL. Blocker18 minP. Farmer9 minK. PruettNewF. WilliamsNewM. EavesNew
Forwards
D. Sutton13 min · TRT. Sadler3 minC. JewellNewD. CooperNewA. PerryNew
MTSU
Guards
K. de Kovachich31 min · TRJ. Carter27 minE. Rice20 min · TRM. Whitlock11 minQ. BarnettNewJ. HowardNew
Forwards
O. Naveh29 min · TRJ. Hall7 minA. BoldenNew
Centers
L. Jovanovic14 minK. SilerNew
In order of minutes, from rosters as of today. ESPN lists players only as guards, forwards or centers, and no injury report exists for college basketball, so a player who is out may still show here.
Showing 2025-26 until both teams have played this season.

Matchup stats

2025-26 · rank among 365 teams
Scoring
Shooting
Possessions
Defense
SEMOMTSU
Scoring
73.2 #217Points per game73.5 #216
1.04 #267Points per possession1.08 #195
70.2 #109Pace (possessions)68.3 #216
Shooting
49.8 #244Effective FG%51.6 #167
30.9 #3243-point %33.8 #183
36.0 #2503-point attempt rate45.3 #61
38.8 #84Free throw rate32.7 #245
Possessions
16.8 #192Turnover rate17.1 #214
29.6 #218Offensive rebound rate30.7 #171
11.7 #306Assists per game13.7 #168
Defense
72.3 #112Points allowed74.6 #180
1.03 #58Points allowed per possession1.09 #205
48.8 #57Opponent effective FG%51.0 #155
33.1 #130Opponent 3-point %34.0 #180
18.1 #91Turnovers forced14.9 #293
71.8 #76Defensive rebound rate71.5 #83
6.4 #190Steals per game5.8 #265
3.6 #121Blocks per game4.0 #76
From the box scores. A longer bar is a better national rank, on every row; the better team's bar is solid. A green rank is near the top of Division I, a red one near the bottom. Pace and 3-point rate are styles, so they have no better side.

SE Missouri

17-13 in 2025-26 overall · 15-7 in conference · Ohio Valley Conference

Last five, 2025-26
  • Lvs Morehead St61–66
  • Wvs Lindenwood Lions68–66
  • Wvs Tennessee Tech89–73
  • Lvs Tennessee St71–79
  • W@ Little Rock70–65

A week or more of rest.

MTSU

14-15 in 2025-26 overall · 11-10 in conference · Conference USA

Last five, 2025-26
  • Lvs Louisiana Tech69–80
  • W@ Missouri St75–63
  • W@ FIU73–67
  • Wvs New Mexico St86–85
  • Wvs UTEP77–67

A week or more of rest.