Southeast Missouri State Redhawks at St. Thomas Tommies: Model Line and Edge

Thu, Nov 19, 8:00 PM ETLee & Penny Anderson Arena · at St Thomas

LineNo line yet

Total—

Season records: SE Missouri and St Thomas
SEMO	This season	STMN
0-0	Record	0-0
0-0	ATS	0-0
0-0	O/U	0-0

ATS = covered-didn’t-push · O/U = overs-unders

Model: projects STMN 78–69 · win probability STMN 78%

Pick this game

Your picksMy picks ›

Winner

Line

—

no line yet

Total

—

model 147.4

Model edge

—

No market line yet

Public

—

No split yet for this game

The model has not beaten the closing line: with an edge of 3 or more it went 409-367 in 2025-26. Model record

What could decide it: STMN has more of the edges

SEMO 0, STMN 7 · 2025-26 numbers until both teams have played three games

STMNBig

Three-pointers

SEMO hits 30.9% and allows 33.1%; STMN hits 36.0% and allows 31.7%. Threes are 36.0% and 46.3% of their shots

STMNSmall

STMN offense vs SEMO defense

Offense 192nd of 366 against a defense 284th, on the model’s ratings

STMNSmall

SEMO offense vs STMN defense

Offense 312th of 366 against a defense 223rd, on the model’s ratings

STMNSmall

Shooting

Effective FG%: SEMO 49.8 and allows 48.8; STMN 58.9 and allows 50.7

STMNSmall

Free throws

Free throw rate: SEMO 38.8, STMN 33.8. Allowed: SEMO 48.0, STMN 30.7

STMNSmall

Home court

STMN at home. This season: STMN 0-0 at home, SEMO 0-0 away

STMNSmall

Turnovers

Turnover rate: SEMO 16.8%, STMN 14.4%. Forced: SEMO 18.1%, STMN 17.0%

Even

Rebounding

Offensive rebound rate: SEMO 29.6%, STMN 22.6%. Defensive: SEMO 71.8%, STMN 73.4%

Even

Who is back

Minutes back from last season: SEMO 26%, STMN 35%. Transfers in: SEMO 1, STMN 3. Early in a season, turnover makes teams harder to price

Context

Tempo

About 70 possessions: SEMO plays 70.2 a game (109th fastest), STMN 69.7 (137th). Faster games mean more points

Context

Schedule so far

SEMO has played the 351st-hardest schedule, STMN the 341st. A record against a soft schedule means less

Sorted by how lopsided each matchup is, from national ranks. Reasons to look, not picks: the market already knows most of this.

Model vs market

	Market	Model	Model edge
Spread	—	STMN -8.7	—
Total	—	147.4	—
Projected score	—	SEMO 69.3 · STMN 78.1

1st-half model

1st-half slate ›

	Model	Actual
1H spread	STMN -5.1	—
1H total	68.9	—
1H projected score	SEMO 31.9 · STMN 37	—

The 1st-half model is fitted from the full-game model and past halves. ESPN has no 1st-half lines for college games, so there is no market to compare it with.

Showing 2025-26 until both teams have played this season.

ATS

2025-26 season

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
SEMO WLWLL	14-16	47%	8-7	—
STMN WWWLL	15-16	48%	6-6	—

Venue/role: SEMO away; STMN home. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

2025-26 season

	O-U	Over %	SU
SEMO UUOUU	13-17	43%	17-13
STMN UUUUU	16-15	52%	21-10

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Tap for the score and line.

Last 10 games

2025-26

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
SEMO	7-3 70%	6-4 60%	3-7 30%
STMN	6-4 60%	6-4 60%	3-7 30%

Wins-losses (pushes last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Next 3 games

With how the last meeting with each opponent went

SE Missouri

Date	Game	Last meeting
Nov 24	vs PFW	L80–89WO
Nov 28	@ KC	W80–59WO
Nov 30	@ WICH	No recent meeting

St Thomas

Date	Game	Last meeting
Nov 21	@ MILW	L65–69LU
Nov 25	@ UNCW	No recent meeting
Nov 27	vs LIB	No recent meeting

Last meeting: result, against the spread, over / under. Hover a result for its date.

Recent meetings

Since 2021-22

SEMO 0–1 STMNSTMN leads · 1 game since 2021-22 · SEMO 0-1 ATS

Date	Result	Line	Covered
Nov 15, 2025-26	STMN 84 @ SEMO 72	SEMO +2.5	STMN W

ATS History · 2025-26

WwinLloss·Wats winLats lossPpush·Owent over the totalUwent under the total

SE Missouri

30 games played

Straight up

17-13

57% wins

Against the spread

14-16

47% covers · avg −0.5 pts vs the line

Over / Under

13-17

43% overs · avg −2.2 pts vs the total

Straight up

17-1357%

L L L L W L L W L W W W W L L L W W W W W W L W W W L W W L

2 of last 4 wonno streak

Against the spread

14-1647%

L W L L W L L W L W L W W L L L W L L W W W L W W W L W L L

2 straight misses ATS1 of last 4 covered

Over / Under

13-1743%

O O O O U U O U O O U U O U O U U U O U O O U U U U U O U U

2 straight unders1 of last 4 over

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Nov 3	@SLU	L 67-92	+19.5	L −5.5	153.5	O 159
Nov 7	@MIZ	L 84-89	+25.5	W +20.5	157.5	O 173
Nov 15	vsSTMN	L 72-84	+2.5	L −9.5	152.5	O 156
Nov 18	@IOWA	L 70-99	+23.5	L −5.5	147.5	O 169
Nov 25	vsCP	W 84-68	-1.5	W +14.5	170.5	U 152
Nov 26	@NAU	L 72-79	+2.5	L −4.5	153.5	U 151
Nov 29	vsLIP	L 77-88	-3.5	L −14.5	153.5	O 165
Dec 6	@UTC	W 74-70	+3.5	W +7.5	149.5	U 144
Dec 18	@TNTC	L 74-85	-2.5	L −13.5	155.5	O 159
Dec 20	@TNST	W 91-82	-1.5	W +7.5	151.5	O 173
Jan 1	vsEIU	W 68-59	-12.5	L −3.5	146.5	U 127
Jan 3	vsWIU	W 73-50	-13.5	W +9.5	147.5	U 123
Jan 8	@USI	W 84-76	-7.5	W +0.5	146.5	O 160
Jan 10	@MORE	L 69-71	-5.5	L −7.5	144.5	U 140
Jan 15	vsLIN	L 76-88	-6.5	L −18.5	154.5	O 164
Jan 17	vsSIUE	L 55-68	-9.5	L −22.5	139.5	U 123
Jan 20	vsUTM	W 66-50	-2.5	W +13.5	140.5	U 116
Jan 22	vsLR	W 70-65	-5.5	L −0.5	145.5	U 135
Jan 29	@WIU	W 78-74	-10.5	L −6.5	142.5	O 152
Jan 31	@EIU	W 77-59	-4.5	W +13.5	138.5	U 136
Feb 5	vsMORE	W 82-70	-7.5	W +4.5	144.5	O 152
Feb 7	vsUSI	W 90-65	-11.5	W +13.5	141.5	O 155
Feb 12	@SIUE	L 56-74	-1.5	L −19.5	137.5	U 130
Feb 14	@LIN	W 73-61	+1.5	W +13.5	154.5	U 134
Feb 17	@UTM	W 56-53	+2.5	W +5.5	138.5	U 109
Feb 21	@LR	W 70-65	-1.5	W +3.5	143.5	U 135
Feb 26	vsTNST	L 71-79	-2.5	L −10.5	151.5	U 150
Feb 28	vsTNTC	W 89-73	-7.5	W +8.5	141.5	O 162
Mar 5	vsLIN	W 68-66	-3.5	L −1.5	148.5	U 134
Mar 6	vsMORE	L 61-66	-3.5	L −8.5	139.5	U 127

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

SLU

L 67-92

−5.5

MIZ

L 84-89

+20.5

STMN

L 72-84

−9.5

IOWA

L 70-99

−5.5

W 84-68

+14.5

NAU

L 72-79

−4.5

LIP

L 77-88

−14.5

UTC

W 74-70

+7.5

TNTC

L 74-85

−13.5

TNST

W 91-82

+7.5

EIU

W 68-59

−3.5

WIU

W 73-50

+9.5

USI

W 84-76

+0.5

L 69-71

−7.5

LIN

L 76-88

−18.5

SIUE

L 55-68

−22.5

UTM

W 66-50

+13.5

W 70-65

−0.5

WIU

W 78-74

−6.5

EIU

W 77-59

+13.5

W 82-70

+4.5

USI

W 90-65

+13.5

SIUE

L 56-74

−19.5

LIN

W 73-61

+13.5

UTM

W 56-53

+5.5

W 70-65

+3.5

TNST

L 71-79

−10.5

TNTC

W 89-73

+8.5

LIN

W 68-66

−1.5

L 61-66

−8.5

covered 14didn’t cover 16avg −0.5 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

SLU

L 67-92

+5.5

MIZ

L 84-89

+15.5

STMN

L 72-84

+3.5

IOWA

L 70-99

+21.5

W 84-68

−18.5

NAU

L 72-79

−2.5

LIP

L 77-88

+11.5

UTC

W 74-70

−5.5

TNTC

L 74-85

+3.5

TNST

W 91-82

+21.5

EIU

W 68-59

−19.5

WIU

W 73-50

−24.5

USI

W 84-76

+13.5

L 69-71

−4.5

LIN

L 76-88

+9.5

SIUE

L 55-68

−16.5

UTM

W 66-50

−24.5

W 70-65

−10.5

WIU

W 78-74

+9.5

EIU

W 77-59

−2.5

W 82-70

+7.5

USI

W 90-65

+13.5

SIUE

L 56-74

−7.5

LIN

W 73-61

−20.5

UTM

W 56-53

−29.5

W 70-65

−8.5

TNST

L 71-79

−1.5

TNTC

W 89-73

+20.5

LIN

W 68-66

−14.5

L 61-66

−12.5

over 13under 17avg −2.2 ptslonger = bigger margin

St Thomas

31 games played

Straight up

21-10

68% wins

Against the spread

15-16

48% covers · avg +0.9 pts vs the line

Over / Under

16-15

52% overs · avg −0.4 pts vs the total

Straight up

21-1068%

L W L W W W L W L W W W W W W W L W W L W W W L W L W W W L L

2 straight losses2 of last 4 won

Against the spread

15-1648%

L L L W W L L W L W W L L L W W L L W L W W W L W L W W W L L

2 straight misses ATS2 of last 4 covered

Over / Under

16-1552%

O O U U O U O U O U U O O O O O U U O O O U O O O U U U U U U

6 straight unders0 of last 4 over

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Nov 3	@SMC	L 58-84	+13.5	L −12.5	141.5	O 142
Nov 8	vsARMY	W 83-76	-18.5	L −11.5	151.5	O 159
Nov 10	@WSU	L 71-81	+2.5	L −7.5	157.5	U 152
Nov 13	vsGB	W 80-61	-13.5	W +5.5	150.5	U 141
Nov 15	@SEMO	W 84-72	-2.5	W +9.5	152.5	O 156
Nov 21	vsUNCO	W 73-72	-4.5	L −3.5	157.5	U 145
Nov 22	vsCSUF	L 80-88	-11.5	L −19.5	162.5	O 168
Nov 23	@PORT	W 76-66	-5.5	W +4.5	155.5	U 142
Dec 3	@MTST	L 74-82	+2.5	L −5.5	147.5	O 156
Dec 7	vsWEB	W 88-65	-7.5	W +15.5	154.5	U 153
Dec 13	@UNCA	W 80-59	-3.5	W +17.5	148.5	U 139
Dec 20	vsUCR	W 92-78	-14.5	L −0.5	152.5	O 170
Jan 4	vsDEN	W 92-88	-11.5	L −7.5	163.5	O 180
Jan 7	vsSDAK	W 99-86	-14.5	L −1.5	162.5	O 185
Jan 10	@ORU	W 82-71	-8.5	W +2.5	152.5	O 153
Jan 15	@UND	W 91-80	-10.5	W +0.5	151.5	O 171
Jan 17	@NDSU	L 65-68	+2.5	L −0.5	151.5	U 133
Jan 22	vsSDST	W 74-69	-6.5	L −1.5	155.5	U 143
Jan 24	@SDAK	W 90-78	-10.5	W +1.5	161.5	O 168
Jan 29	vsUND	L 80-81	-11.5	L −12.5	152.5	O 161
Feb 1	vsKC	W 99-64	-17.5	W +17.5	151.5	O 163
Feb 4	@SDST	W 77-62	+1.5	W +16.5	157.5	U 139
Feb 7	vsORU	W 92-75	-15.5	W +1.5	151.5	O 167
Feb 12	@OMA	L 94-98	-4.5	L −8.5	156.5	O 192
Feb 14	@KC	W 104-64	-12.5	W +27.5	154.5	O 168
Feb 21	@DEN	L 80-82	-3.5	L −5.5	168.5	U 162
Feb 26	vsNDSU	W 84-62	-3.5	W +18.5	155.5	U 146
Feb 28	vsOMA	W 68-53	-11.5	W +3.5	158.5	U 121
Mar 5	vsSDST	W 80-67	-4.5	W +8.5	150.5	U 147
Mar 7	vsUND	L 66-67	-11.5	L −12.5	153.5	U 133
Mar 17	@SEA	L 52-67	+2.5	L −12.5	145.5	U 119

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

SMC

L 58-84

−12.5

ARMY

W 83-76

−11.5

WSU

L 71-81

−7.5

W 80-61

+5.5

SEMO

W 84-72

+9.5

UNCO

W 73-72

−3.5

CSUF

L 80-88

−19.5

PORT

W 76-66

+4.5

MTST

L 74-82

−5.5

WEB

W 88-65

+15.5

UNCA

W 80-59

+17.5

UCR

W 92-78

−0.5

DEN

W 92-88

−7.5

SDAK

W 99-86

−1.5

ORU

W 82-71

+2.5

UND

W 91-80

+0.5

NDSU

L 65-68

−0.5

SDST

W 74-69

−1.5

SDAK

W 90-78

+1.5

UND

L 80-81

−12.5

W 99-64

+17.5

SDST

W 77-62

+16.5

ORU

W 92-75

+1.5

OMA

L 94-98

−8.5

W 104-64

+27.5

DEN

L 80-82

−5.5

NDSU

W 84-62

+18.5

OMA

W 68-53

+3.5

SDST

W 80-67

+8.5

UND

L 66-67

−12.5

SEA

L 52-67

−12.5

covered 15didn’t cover 16avg +0.9 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

SMC

L 58-84

+0.5

ARMY

W 83-76

+7.5

WSU

L 71-81

−5.5

W 80-61

−9.5

SEMO

W 84-72

+3.5

UNCO

W 73-72

−12.5

CSUF

L 80-88

+5.5

PORT

W 76-66

−13.5

MTST

L 74-82

+8.5

WEB

W 88-65

−1.5

UNCA

W 80-59

−9.5

UCR

W 92-78

+17.5

DEN

W 92-88

+16.5

SDAK

W 99-86

+22.5

ORU

W 82-71

+0.5

UND

W 91-80

+19.5

NDSU

L 65-68

−18.5

SDST

W 74-69

−12.5

SDAK

W 90-78

+6.5

UND

L 80-81

+8.5

W 99-64

+11.5

SDST

W 77-62

−18.5

ORU

W 92-75

+15.5

OMA

L 94-98

+35.5

W 104-64

+13.5

DEN

L 80-82

−6.5

NDSU

W 84-62

−9.5

OMA

W 68-53

−37.5

SDST

W 80-67

−3.5

UND

L 66-67

−20.5

SEA

L 52-67

−26.5

over 16under 15avg −0.4 ptslonger = bigger margin

Line = the team’s closing spread (negative = favored). ATS number = points beyond the line; total number = combined points.

SE Missouri has the better starters

Position by position: SE Missouri 1, St Thomas 0, even 4

SE MissouriBetterSt Thomas

G M. Bell8.6 pts · 5 reb · 1.7 ast Score 69

Even

G A. Herro5.7 pts · 4 reb · 3.6 ast Score 57

G L. Blocker4.8 pts · 3.6 reb · 0.5 ast Score 33

Even

G H. Tibbits2.7 pts · 1 reb · 0.7 ast Score 24

G P. Farmer1.6 pts · 1.3 reb · 0.8 ast Score 11

Even

F C. Bjerke9.2 pts · 3.4 reb · 1.2 ast Score 25

F D. Sutton TR3.8 pts · 3.9 reb · 0.7 ast Score 63

SEMOBig

F C. Wilkins TR6.9 pts · 2.9 reb · 0.5 ast Score 9

F T. Sadler0.2 pts · 0.1 reb · 0 ast Not ranked

No call

F J. Lorenz TR2.2 pts · 1.8 reb · 1 ast Not ranked

SE MissouriBetterSt Thomas

SEMO offense312th of 366 · -10.0

STMNSmall

STMN defense223rd of 366 · -5.8

SEMO defense284th of 366 · -7.1

STMNSmall

STMN offense192nd of 366 · -5.9

Backcourt-1.7 · 3 players

Even

Backcourt-1.0 · 2 players

Frontcourt+0.0 · 2 players

SEMOBig

Frontcourt-4.0 · 3 players

BenchNo numbers yet

No call

Bench-1.0 · 5 players

Score, worst to bestSEMO betterSTMN betterTR transfer · NEW no Division I numbers

Projected starters: college teams publish no depth chart, so these come from minutes played, and a freshman or a new starter can change them. The score is the share of ranked players at the position that player is ahead of. Numbers are this season's once a player has 30 minutes, 2025-26's before that. Bench is the next five by minutes. Tap a player for the full numbers.

Depth chart

Projected rotation by position, starters outlined

SE Missouri

Guards

M. Bell22 minL. Blocker18 minP. Farmer9 minK. PruettNewF. WilliamsNewM. EavesNew

Forwards

D. Sutton13 min · TRT. Sadler3 minC. JewellNewD. CooperNewA. PerryNew

St Thomas

Guards

A. Herro24 minH. Tibbits10 minK. Blue4 min · TRT. Franks3 minT. Humphries2 minA. Tauer2 min

Forwards

C. Bjerke25 minC. Wilkins22 min · TRJ. Lorenz10 min · TRK. Counts4 minL. MomcilovicNew

In order of minutes, from rosters as of today. ESPN lists players only as guards, forwards or centers, and no injury report exists for college basketball, so a player who is out may still show here.

Showing 2025-26 until both teams have played this season.

Matchup stats

2025-26 · rank among 365 teams

ChartTable

Scoring

Points per game

SEMO73.2 #217

STMN80.9 #48

Points per possession

SEMO1.04 #267

STMN1.16 #45

Pace (possessions)

SEMO70.2 #109

STMN69.7 #137

Shooting

Effective FG%

SEMO49.8 #244

STMN58.9 #5

3-point %

SEMO30.9 #324

STMN36.0 #57

3-point attempt rate

SEMO36.0 #250

STMN46.3 #41

Free throw rate

SEMO38.8 #84

STMN33.8 #220

Possessions

Turnover rate

SEMO16.8 #192

STMN14.4 #37

Offensive rebound rate

SEMO29.6 #218

STMN22.6 #353

Assists per game

SEMO11.7 #306

STMN16.4 #37

Defense

Points allowed

SEMO72.3 #112

STMN73.1 #135

Points allowed per possession

SEMO1.03 #58

STMN1.05 #82

Opponent effective FG%

SEMO48.8 #57

STMN50.7 #139

Opponent 3-point %

SEMO33.1 #130

STMN31.7 #52

Turnovers forced

SEMO18.1 #91

STMN17.0 #152

Defensive rebound rate

SEMO71.8 #76

STMN73.4 #25

Steals per game

SEMO6.4 #190

STMN7.5 #87

Blocks per game

SEMO3.6 #121

STMN2.6 #296

SEMO		STMN
Scoring
73.2 #217	Points per game	80.9 #48
1.04 #267	Points per possession	1.16 #45
70.2 #109	Pace (possessions)	69.7 #137
Shooting
49.8 #244	Effective FG%	58.9 #5
30.9 #324	3-point %	36.0 #57
36.0 #250	3-point attempt rate	46.3 #41
38.8 #84	Free throw rate	33.8 #220
Possessions
16.8 #192	Turnover rate	14.4 #37
29.6 #218	Offensive rebound rate	22.6 #353
11.7 #306	Assists per game	16.4 #37
Defense
72.3 #112	Points allowed	73.1 #135
1.03 #58	Points allowed per possession	1.05 #82
48.8 #57	Opponent effective FG%	50.7 #139
33.1 #130	Opponent 3-point %	31.7 #52
18.1 #91	Turnovers forced	17.0 #152
71.8 #76	Defensive rebound rate	73.4 #25
6.4 #190	Steals per game	7.5 #87
3.6 #121	Blocks per game	2.6 #296

From the box scores. A longer bar is a better national rank, on every row; the better team's bar is solid. A green rank is near the top of Division I, a red one near the bottom. Pace and 3-point rate are styles, so they have no better side.

SE Missouri

17-13 in 2025-26 overall · 15-7 in conference · Ohio Valley Conference

Last five, 2025-26

Lvs Morehead St61–66
Wvs Lindenwood Lions68–66
Wvs Tennessee Tech89–73
Lvs Tennessee St71–79
W@ Little Rock70–65

A week or more of rest.

St Thomas

21-10 in 2025-26 overall · 13-5 in conference · Summit League

Last five, 2025-26

L@ Seattle U52–67
Lvs North Dakota66–67
Wvs S Dakota St80–67
Wvs Omaha68–53
Wvs N Dakota St84–62

A week or more of rest.

Southeast Missouri State Redhawks at St. Thomas Tommies

What could decide it: STMN has more of the edges

Market

Model vs market

1st-half model

ATS

Totals

Last 10 games

Next 3 games

Recent meetings

ATS History · 2025-26

SE Missouri

St Thomas

SE Missouri has the better starters

Depth chart

Matchup stats

SE Missouri

St Thomas