1. NCAAB
  2. Thu, Nov 19
  3. TA&M @ TCU
NCAAB · Thu, Nov 19

Texas A&M Aggies at TCU Horned Frogs

Schollmaier Arena · at TCU
#28TA&MTexas A&M
@
#40TCUTCU
LineNo line yet 
Total— 
TA&MThis seasonTCU
0-0Record0-0
0-0ATS0-0
0-0O/U0-0

ATS = covered-didn’t-push · O/U = overs-unders

Model: projects TCU 80–78 · win probability TCU 58%
Pick this game
Your picksMy picks ›
Winner
Line
—
no line yet
Total
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model 157.4
Model edge
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No market line yet
Public
—
No split yet for this game
The model has not beaten the closing line: with an edge of 3 or more it went 409-367 in 2025-26. Model record

What could decide it: TCU has more of the edges

TA&M 2, TCU 4 · 2025-26 numbers until both teams have played three games
TA&MBig
Three-pointers
TA&M hits 35.9% and allows 31.8%; TCU hits 33.2% and allows 33.5%. Threes are 46.2% and 36.8% of their shots
TCUBig
Rebounding
Offensive rebound rate: TA&M 32.0%, TCU 34.0%. Defensive: TA&M 67.0%, TCU 70.9%
TA&MSmall
Shooting
Effective FG%: TA&M 53.8 and allows 50.7; TCU 50.4 and allows 51.2
TCUSmall
Free throws
Free throw rate: TA&M 37.1, TCU 37.5. Allowed: TA&M 35.4, TCU 30.4
TCUSmall
Home court
TCU at home. This season: TCU 0-0 at home, TA&M 0-0 away
TCUSmall
Who is back
Minutes back from last season: TA&M 25%, TCU 52%. Transfers in: TA&M 7, TCU 3. Early in a season, turnover makes teams harder to price
Context
Tempo
About 72 possessions: TA&M plays 73.5 a game (15th fastest), TCU 70.2 (108th). Faster games mean more points
Context
Schedule so far
TA&M has played the 57th-hardest schedule, TCU the 29th. A record against a soft schedule means less
Even
TCU offense vs TA&M defense
Offense 48th of 366 against a defense 62nd, on the model’s ratings
Even
TA&M offense vs TCU defense
Offense 20th of 366 against a defense 27th, on the model’s ratings
Even
Turnovers
Turnover rate: TA&M 14.7%, TCU 15.3%. Forced: TA&M 18.4%, TCU 19.5%
Sorted by how lopsided each matchup is, from national ranks. Reasons to look, not picks: the market already knows most of this.

Market

Open → current
Spread
Opening line not available
Total
 
Moneyline
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Pre-game lines only (ESPN, DraftKings first). After tip-off the line shown is the closing line.

Model vs market

MarketModelModel edge
Spread—TCU -2.4—
Total—157.4—
Projected score—TA&M 77.5 · TCU 79.9

1st-half model

1st-half slate ›
ModelActual
1H spreadTCU -1.3—
1H total73.6—
1H projected scoreTA&M 36.1 · TCU 37.4—
The 1st-half model is fitted from the full-game model and past halves. ESPN has no 1st-half lines for college games, so there is no market to compare it with.

TCU has the better starters

Position by position: Texas A&M 0, TCU 2, even 3
Texas A&MBetterTCU
G P. Haggerty TR23.4 pts · 5.3 reb · 3.8 ast Score 98
Even
G G. Sykes TR19.7 pts · 3 reb · 1.5 ast Score 89
G J. Pope TR13.1 pts · 2.1 reb · 1.7 ast Score 78
Even
G B. Harding8 pts · 2.9 reb · 5.6 ast Score 67
G T. Archie TR14.2 pts · 1.9 reb · 2.8 ast Score 91
Even
G M. Robinson10.9 pts · 4.7 reb · 1.7 ast Score 85
G L. Walls TR7.9 pts · 2.3 reb · 1 ast Score 37
TCUBig
G T. Toolson7.7 pts · 3.2 reb · 0.9 ast Score 75
F J. Shelley TR13.9 pts · 6.6 reb · 2.6 ast Score 76
TCUSmall
F X. Edmonds12.7 pts · 6.5 reb · 1.2 ast Score 98
Texas A&MBetterTCU
TA&M offense20th of 366 · +7.7
Even
TCU defense27th of 366 · +3.9
TA&M defense62nd of 366 · +1.2
Even
TCU offense48th of 366 · +3.8
Backcourt+8.6 · 4 players
TA&MSmall
Backcourt+5.6 · 4 players
Frontcourt+1.7 · 1 player
TCUSmall
Frontcourt+4.4 · 1 player
Bench+2.5 · 5 players
Even
Bench+1.6 · 3 players
Score, worst to bestTA&M betterTCU betterTR transfer · NEW no Division I numbers
Projected starters: college teams publish no depth chart, so these come from minutes played, and a freshman or a new starter can change them. The score is the share of ranked players at the position that player is ahead of. Numbers are this season's once a player has 30 minutes, 2025-26's before that. Bench is the next five by minutes. Tap a player for the full numbers.

Depth chart

Projected rotation by position, starters outlined
Texas A&M
Guards
P. Haggerty35 min · TRJ. Pope29 min · TRT. Archie26 min · TRL. Walls24 min · TRJ. Reece24 min · TRJ. Green5 min
Forwards
J. Shelley32 min · TRM. Mgbako19 minZ. Clemence17 minC. Phillips17 min · TRJ. Vinson7 minC. McDermott4 min
TCU
Guards
G. Sykes34 min · TRB. Harding32 minM. Robinson27 minT. Toolson21 minD. McElroy1 minG. MurphyNew
Forwards
X. Edmonds23 minD. Thomas17 min · TRL. Bamgboye17 min · TRR. HuntNewS. FlemingNewM. SojicNew
In order of minutes, from rosters as of today. ESPN lists players only as guards, forwards or centers, and no injury report exists for college basketball, so a player who is out may still show here.
Showing 2025-26 until both teams have played this season.

Matchup stats

2025-26 · rank among 365 teams
Scoring
Shooting
Possessions
Defense
TA&MTCU
Scoring
86.1 #12Points per game77.4 #109
1.17 #43Points per possession1.10 #127
73.5 #15Pace (possessions)70.2 #108
Shooting
53.8 #71Effective FG%50.4 #221
35.9 #633-point %33.2 #220
46.2 #423-point attempt rate36.8 #233
37.1 #128Free throw rate37.5 #112
Possessions
14.7 #48Turnover rate15.3 #90
32.0 #122Offensive rebound rate34.0 #67
17.8 #11Assists per game15.4 #71
Defense
78.9 #296Points allowed72.1 #107
1.08 #151Points allowed per possession1.02 #50
50.7 #141Opponent effective FG%51.2 #172
31.8 #53Opponent 3-point %33.5 #158
18.4 #81Turnovers forced19.5 #33
67.0 #300Defensive rebound rate70.9 #112
8.1 #34Steals per game7.7 #61
3.1 #210Blocks per game4.5 #39
From the box scores. A longer bar is a better national rank, on every row; the better team's bar is solid. A green rank is near the top of Division I, a red one near the bottom. Pace and 3-point rate are styles, so they have no better side.

Texas A&M

22-12 in 2025-26 overall · 11-8 in conference · Southeastern Conference

Last five, 2025-26
  • Lvs Houston57–88
  • Wvs Saint Mary's63–50
  • Lvs Oklahoma63–83
  • W@ LSU94–91
  • Wvs Kentucky96–85

A week or more of rest.

TCU

23-12 in 2025-26 overall · 12-8 in conference · Big 12 Conference

Last five, 2025-26
  • Lvs Duke58–81
  • Wvs Ohio State66–64
  • Lvs Kansas73–78
  • Wvs Oklahoma St95–88
  • Wvs Cincinnati73–63

A week or more of rest.