Middle Tennessee Blue Raiders at Georgia Southern Eagles: Model Line and Edge

Tue, Nov 17, 7:00 PM ETJack and Ruth Ann Hill Convocation Center · at GA Southern

#154MTSUMTSU

LineNo line yet

Total—

Season records: MTSU and GA Southern
MTSU	This season	GASO
0-0	Record	0-0
0-0	ATS	0-0
0-0	O/U	0-0

ATS = covered-didn’t-push · O/U = overs-unders

Model: projects MTSU 79–74 · win probability MTSU 68%

Pick this game

Your picksMy picks ›

Winner

Line

—

no line yet

Total

—

model 152.8

Model edge

—

No market line yet

Public

—

No split yet for this game

The model has not beaten the closing line: with an edge of 3 or more it went 409-367 in 2025-26. Model record

What could decide it: MTSU has more of the edges

MTSU 3, GASO 2 · 2025-26 numbers until both teams have played three games

GASOBig

Turnovers

Turnover rate: MTSU 17.1%, GASO 14.7%. Forced: MTSU 14.9%, GASO 18.7%

MTSUBig

MTSU offense vs GASO defense

Offense 158th of 366 against a defense 347th, on the model’s ratings

MTSUBig

Rebounding

Offensive rebound rate: MTSU 30.7%, GASO 28.8%. Defensive: MTSU 71.5%, GASO 64.8%

Context

Schedule so far

MTSU has played the 132nd-hardest schedule, GASO the 279th. A record against a soft schedule means less

Context

Tempo

About 70 possessions: MTSU plays 68.3 a game (216th fastest), GASO 71.8 (42nd). Faster games mean more points

MTSUSmall

GASO offense vs MTSU defense

Offense 233rd of 366 against a defense 167th, on the model’s ratings

GASOSmall

Home court

GASO at home. This season: GASO 0-0 at home, MTSU 0-0 away

Even

Shooting

Effective FG%: MTSU 51.6 and allows 51.0; GASO 51.4 and allows 52.3

Even

Free throws

Free throw rate: MTSU 32.7, GASO 39.6. Allowed: MTSU 35.7, GASO 41.4

Even

Three-pointers

MTSU hits 33.8% and allows 34.0%; GASO hits 33.4% and allows 34.4%. Threes are 45.3% and 48.9% of their shots

Even

Who is back

Minutes back from last season: MTSU 30%, GASO 16%. Transfers in: MTSU 3, GASO 3. Early in a season, turnover makes teams harder to price

Sorted by how lopsided each matchup is, from national ranks. Reasons to look, not picks: the market already knows most of this.

Model vs market

	Market	Model	Model edge
Spread	—	MTSU -5.3	—
Total	—	152.8	—
Projected score	—	MTSU 79.1 · GASO 73.7

1st-half model

1st-half slate ›

	Model	Actual
1H spread	MTSU -3.3	—
1H total	71.4	—
1H projected score	MTSU 37.4 · GASO 34.1	—

The 1st-half model is fitted from the full-game model and past halves. ESPN has no 1st-half lines for college games, so there is no market to compare it with.

Showing 2025-26 until both teams have played this season.

ATS

2025-26 season

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
MTSU WLWWL	13-16	45%	8-5	—
GASO WWWWL	17-17	50%	5-7	—

Venue/role: MTSU away; GASO home. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

2025-26 season

	O-U	Over %	SU
MTSU OOUUO	15-14	52%	14-15
GASO UOOUU	19-15	56%	19-16

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Tap for the score and line.

Last 10 games

2025-26

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
MTSU	6-4 60%	6-4 60%	7-3 70%
GASO	6-4 60%	6-4 60%	5-5 50%

Wins-losses (pushes last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Next 3 games

With how the last meeting with each opponent went

MTSU

Date	Game	Last meeting
Nov 20	vs TEM	No recent meeting
Dec 1	vs TNTC	No recent meeting
Dec 5	@ BEL	L62–83LU

GA Southern

Date	Game	Last meeting
Nov 19	@ HCU	W80–62WU
Nov 23	@ NKU	No recent meeting
Nov 24	vs BELL	No recent meeting

Last meeting: result, against the spread, over / under. Hover a result for its date.

ATS History · 2025-26

WwinLloss·Wats winLats lossPpush·Owent over the totalUwent under the total

MTSU

29 games played

Straight up

14-15

48% wins

Against the spread

13-16

45% covers · avg +0 pts vs the line

Over / Under

15-14

52% overs · avg +2.6 pts vs the total

Straight up

14-1548%

W L W L L W L W L W W L W L W L L L L L W L L W W W W W L

3 of last 4 wonno streak

Against the spread

13-1645%

W W W L L W L L W W L L W L L L L L L L W W L W W L W W L

2 of last 4 coveredno streak

Over / Under

15-1452%

O U O O U U U U U O U O U U O U O U O O O O U O O O U U O

2 of last 4 overno streak

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Nov 12	@EVAN	W 77-72	+2.5	W +7.5	140.5	O 149
Nov 19	@MICH	L 61-86	+27.5	W +2.5	159.5	U 147
Nov 23	vsMUR	W 90-87	+6.5	W +9.5	161.5	O 177
Nov 24	vsGW	L 79-92	+9.5	L −3.5	158.5	O 171
Nov 25	vsMCN	L 62-72	+9.5	L −0.5	147.5	U 134
Dec 1	vsUAB	W 76-61	+1.5	W +16.5	153.5	U 137
Dec 7	vsBEL	L 62-83	+3.5	L −17.5	153.5	U 145
Dec 17	vsKENN	W 68-67	-3.5	L −2.5	160.5	U 135
Dec 29	@HOU	L 60-69	+25.5	W +16.5	138.5	U 129
Jan 2	vsLT	W 88-51	-6.5	W +30.5	134.5	O 139
Jan 4	vsSHSU	W 68-67	-4.5	L −3.5	156.5	U 135
Jan 8	@UTEP	L 80-83	-3.5	L −6.5	137.5	O 163
Jan 10	@NMSU	W 59-55	+3.5	W +7.5	144.5	U 114
Jan 14	@LT	L 58-59	-3.5	L −4.5	131.5	U 117
Jan 17	vsMOST	W 90-87	-5.5	L −2.5	137.5	O 177
Jan 23	@JXST	L 58-75	-1.5	L −18.5	133.5	U 133
Jan 29	vsLIB	L 65-81	+1.5	L −14.5	136.5	O 146
Jan 31	vsWKU	L 60-65	-6.5	L −11.5	140.5	U 125
Feb 4	vsFIU	L 84-88	-5.5	L −9.5	154.5	O 172
Feb 7	@DEL	L 88-89	-5.5	L −6.5	133.5	O 177
Feb 12	@KENN	W 90-87	+3.5	W +6.5	148.5	O 177
Feb 14	@WKU	L 80-82	+3.5	W +1.5	145.5	O 162
Feb 18	@SHSU	L 70-78	+3.5	L −4.5	151.5	U 148
Feb 21	vsDEL	W 78-66	-10.5	W +1.5	137.5	O 144
Feb 26	vsUTEP	W 77-67	-8.5	W +1.5	139.5	O 144
Feb 28	vsNMSU	W 86-85	-5.5	L −4.5	148.5	O 171
Mar 5	@FIU	W 73-67	+1.5	W +7.5	153.5	U 140
Mar 7	@MOST	W 75-63	+2.5	W +14.5	145.5	U 138
Mar 12	vsLT	L 69-80	-1.5	L −12.5	134.5	O 149

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

EVAN

W 77-72

+7.5

MICH

L 61-86

+2.5

MUR

W 90-87

+9.5

L 79-92

−3.5

MCN

L 62-72

−0.5

UAB

W 76-61

+16.5

BEL

L 62-83

−17.5

KENN

W 68-67

−2.5

HOU

L 60-69

+16.5

W 88-51

+30.5

SHSU

W 68-67

−3.5

UTEP

L 80-83

−6.5

NMSU

W 59-55

+7.5

L 58-59

−4.5

MOST

W 90-87

−2.5

JXST

L 58-75

−18.5

LIB

L 65-81

−14.5

WKU

L 60-65

−11.5

FIU

L 84-88

−9.5

DEL

L 88-89

−6.5

KENN

W 90-87

+6.5

WKU

L 80-82

+1.5

SHSU

L 70-78

−4.5

DEL

W 78-66

+1.5

UTEP

W 77-67

+1.5

NMSU

W 86-85

−4.5

FIU

W 73-67

+7.5

MOST

W 75-63

+14.5

L 69-80

−12.5

covered 13didn’t cover 16avg +0 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

EVAN

W 77-72

+8.5

MICH

L 61-86

−12.5

MUR

W 90-87

+15.5

L 79-92

+12.5

MCN

L 62-72

−13.5

UAB

W 76-61

−16.5

BEL

L 62-83

−8.5

KENN

W 68-67

−25.5

HOU

L 60-69

−9.5

W 88-51

+4.5

SHSU

W 68-67

−21.5

UTEP

L 80-83

+25.5

NMSU

W 59-55

−30.5

L 58-59

−14.5

MOST

W 90-87

+39.5

JXST

L 58-75

−0.5

LIB

L 65-81

+9.5

WKU

L 60-65

−15.5

FIU

L 84-88

+17.5

DEL

L 88-89

+43.5

KENN

W 90-87

+28.5

WKU

L 80-82

+16.5

SHSU

L 70-78

−3.5

DEL

W 78-66

+6.5

UTEP

W 77-67

+4.5

NMSU

W 86-85

+22.5

FIU

W 73-67

−13.5

MOST

W 75-63

−7.5

L 69-80

+14.5

over 15under 14avg +2.6 ptslonger = bigger margin

GA Southern

35 games played

Straight up

19-16

54% wins

Against the spread

17-17

50% covers · avg +0.2 pts vs the line

Over / Under

19-15

56% overs · avg +2.9 pts vs the total

Straight up

19-1654%

L W W L L L L W W W W W W W W L W L L L W L L L W L L L W W W W W W L

3 of last 4 wonno streak

Against the spread

17-1750%

W L W W L L L W W L W W W W W L L L L L–L L L W L L L W W W W W W L

3 of last 4 coveredno streak

Over / Under

19-1556%

O O O U U U U U O O O U O O O O O U U O–U U O O U O U O O U O O U U

2 straight unders2 of last 4 over

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Nov 4	@ECU	L 89-92	+5.5	W +2.5	151.5	O 181
Nov 8	vsUNCA	W 93-90	-5.5	L −2.5	162.5	O 183
Nov 11	@FGCU	W 95-94	+3.5	W +4.5	163.5	O 189
Nov 18	@GT	L 66-68	+10.5	W +8.5	164.5	U 134
Nov 21	@FSU	L 72-98	+18.5	L −7.5	175.5	U 170
Nov 24	vsYSU	L 61-67	+1.5	L −4.5	163.5	U 128
Nov 25	vsUTSA	L 64-77	-3.5	L −16.5	160.5	U 141
Nov 29	vsHCU	W 80-62	-7.5	W +10.5	148.5	U 142
Dec 3	vsLT	W 77-69	-1.5	W +6.5	145.5	O 146
Dec 6	@GWEB	W 88-84	-10.5	L −6.5	162.5	O 172
Dec 13	@WGA	W 91-85	-3.5	W +2.5	154.5	O 176
Dec 18	vsGAST	W 90-67	-9.5	W +13.5	159.5	U 157
Dec 20	vsJMU	W 96-92	-2.5	W +1.5	153.5	O 188
Jan 1	@CCU	W 82-81	+1.5	W +2.5	157.5	O 163
Jan 3	@ODU	W 93-86	-1.5	W +5.5	161.5	O 179
Jan 10	@USA	L 71-87	+2.5	L −13.5	148.5	O 158
Jan 15	vsODU	W 87-84	-5.5	L −2.5	162.5	O 171
Jan 17	vsCCU	L 75-79	-6.5	L −10.5	157.5	U 154
Jan 22	vsARST	L 68-85	+1.5	L −15.5	172.5	U 153
Jan 24	vsTROY	L 78-83	+4.5	L −0.5	159.5	O 161
Jan 30	vsULM	W 79-76	—	—	—	—
Jan 31	@UL	L 60-69	-2.5	L −11.5	144.5	U 129
Feb 4	vsTXST	L 71-77	-4.5	L −10.5	151.5	U 148
Feb 11	vsAPP	L 65-81	+1.5	L −14.5	143.5	O 146
Feb 14	vsMRSH	W 101-87	+2.5	W +16.5	162.5	O 188
Feb 19	@GAST	L 64-66	-1.5	L −3.5	154.5	U 130
Feb 21	@APP	L 74-89	+7.5	L −7.5	147.5	O 163
Feb 25	@JMU	L 66-82	+5.5	L −10.5	153.5	U 148
Feb 27	@MRSH	W 99-82	+7.5	W +24.5	168.5	O 181
Mar 4	vsODU	W 88-84	-2.5	W +1.5	157.5	O 172
Mar 5	vsARST	W 80-77	+7.5	W +10.5	165.5	U 157
Mar 6	vsUSA	W 94-85	+4.5	W +13.5	149.5	O 179
Mar 7	vsCCU	W 96-72	+1.5	W +25.5	151.5	O 168
Mar 8	vsMRSH	W 82-78	+2.5	W +6.5	166.5	U 160
Mar 9	vsTROY	L 61-77	+5.5	L −10.5	152.5	U 138

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

ECU

L 89-92

+2.5

UNCA

W 93-90

−2.5

FGCU

W 95-94

+4.5

L 66-68

+8.5

FSU

L 72-98

−7.5

YSU

L 61-67

−4.5

UTSA

L 64-77

−16.5

HCU

W 80-62

+10.5

W 77-69

+6.5

GWEB

W 88-84

−6.5

WGA

W 91-85

+2.5

GAST

W 90-67

+13.5

JMU

W 96-92

+1.5

CCU

W 82-81

+2.5

ODU

W 93-86

+5.5

USA

L 71-87

−13.5

ODU

W 87-84

−2.5

CCU

L 75-79

−10.5

ARST

L 68-85

−15.5

TROY

L 78-83

−0.5

L 60-69

−11.5

TXST

L 71-77

−10.5

APP

L 65-81

−14.5

MRSH

W 101-87

+16.5

GAST

L 64-66

−3.5

APP

L 74-89

−7.5

JMU

L 66-82

−10.5

MRSH

W 99-82

+24.5

ODU

W 88-84

+1.5

ARST

W 80-77

+10.5

USA

W 94-85

+13.5

CCU

W 96-72

+25.5

MRSH

W 82-78

+6.5

TROY

L 61-77

−10.5

covered 17didn’t cover 17avg +0.2 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

ECU

L 89-92

+29.5

UNCA

W 93-90

+20.5

FGCU

W 95-94

+25.5

L 66-68

−30.5

FSU

L 72-98

−5.5

YSU

L 61-67

−35.5

UTSA

L 64-77

−19.5

HCU

W 80-62

−6.5

W 77-69

+0.5

GWEB

W 88-84

+9.5

WGA

W 91-85

+21.5

GAST

W 90-67

−2.5

JMU

W 96-92

+34.5

CCU

W 82-81

+5.5

ODU

W 93-86

+17.5

USA

L 71-87

+9.5

ODU

W 87-84

+8.5

CCU

L 75-79

−3.5

ARST

L 68-85

−19.5

TROY

L 78-83

+1.5

L 60-69

−15.5

TXST

L 71-77

−3.5

APP

L 65-81

+2.5

MRSH

W 101-87

+25.5

GAST

L 64-66

−24.5

APP

L 74-89

+15.5

JMU

L 66-82

−5.5

MRSH

W 99-82

+12.5

ODU

W 88-84

+14.5

ARST

W 80-77

−8.5

USA

W 94-85

+29.5

CCU

W 96-72

+16.5

MRSH

W 82-78

−6.5

TROY

L 61-77

−14.5

over 19under 15avg +2.9 ptslonger = bigger margin

Line = the team’s closing spread (negative = favored). ATS number = points beyond the line; total number = combined points.

MTSU has the better starters

Position by position: MTSU 3, GA Southern 0, even 2

MTSUBetterGA Southern

G K. de Kovachich TR11.6 pts · 2.2 reb · 2 ast Score 40

Even

G J. Dixon TR9 pts · 1 reb · 1.5 ast Score 39

G J. Carter10.3 pts · 3.2 reb · 3.5 ast Score 63

MTSUBig

G D. Williams3.6 pts · 1.4 reb · 0.3 ast Score 10

G E. Rice TR6.7 pts · 1.7 reb · 0.2 ast Score 43

No call

G J. Williams1 pts · 1.1 reb · 0.4 ast Not ranked

F O. Naveh TR11 pts · 5.9 reb · 1.8 ast Score 52

MTSUBig

F T. Claytor TR6.5 pts · 1.5 reb · 0.6 ast Score 8

C L. Jovanovic2.1 pts · 2.9 reb · 0.4 ast Score 26

MTSUSmall

F T. Sotirov2.5 pts · 1.3 reb · 0.3 ast Score 1

MTSUBetterGA Southern

MTSU offense158th of 366 · -4.7

MTSUBig

GASO defense347th of 366 · -9.4

MTSU defense167th of 366 · -3.7

MTSUSmall

GASO offense233rd of 366 · -7.2

Backcourt-2.0 · 3 players

MTSUSmall

Backcourt-3.8 · 3 players

Frontcourt-1.1 · 2 players

MTSUSmall

Frontcourt-3.7 · 2 players

Bench-0.1 · 2 players

Even

Bench-0.8 · 1 player

Score, worst to bestMTSU betterGASO betterTR transfer · NEW no Division I numbers

Projected starters: college teams publish no depth chart, so these come from minutes played, and a freshman or a new starter can change them. The score is the share of ranked players at the position that player is ahead of. Numbers are this season's once a player has 30 minutes, 2025-26's before that. Bench is the next five by minutes. Tap a player for the full numbers.

Depth chart

Projected rotation by position, starters outlined

MTSU

Guards

K. de Kovachich31 min · TRJ. Carter27 minE. Rice20 min · TRM. Whitlock11 minQ. BarnettNewJ. HowardNew

Forwards

O. Naveh29 min · TRJ. Hall7 minA. BoldenNew

Centers

L. Jovanovic14 minK. SilerNew

GA Southern

Guards

J. Dixon19 min · TRD. Williams12 minJ. Williams8 minD. GardnerNewA. HendersonNewR. WilliamsNew

Forwards

T. Claytor17 min · TRT. Sotirov11 minE. Smith6 min · TRC. CrissmanNewE. SavaneNewE. JamesNew

In order of minutes, from rosters as of today. ESPN lists players only as guards, forwards or centers, and no injury report exists for college basketball, so a player who is out may still show here.

Showing 2025-26 until both teams have played this season.

Matchup stats

2025-26 · rank among 365 teams

ChartTable

Scoring

Points per game

MTSU73.5 #216

GASO79.9 #69

Points per possession

MTSU1.08 #195

GASO1.12 #109

Pace (possessions)

MTSU68.3 #216

GASO71.8 #42

Shooting

Effective FG%

MTSU51.6 #167

GASO51.4 #176

3-point %

MTSU33.8 #183

GASO33.4 #207

3-point attempt rate

MTSU45.3 #61

GASO48.9 #20

Free throw rate

MTSU32.7 #245

GASO39.6 #62

Possessions

Turnover rate

MTSU17.1 #214

GASO14.7 #49

Offensive rebound rate

MTSU30.7 #171

GASO28.8 #238

Assists per game

MTSU13.7 #168

GASO10.7 #344

Defense

Points allowed

MTSU74.6 #180

GASO80.3 #325

Points allowed per possession

MTSU1.09 #205

GASO1.11 #259

Opponent effective FG%

MTSU51.0 #155

GASO52.3 #230

Opponent 3-point %

MTSU34.0 #180

GASO34.4 #208

Turnovers forced

MTSU14.9 #293

GASO18.7 #65

Defensive rebound rate

MTSU71.5 #83

GASO64.8 #342

Steals per game

MTSU5.8 #265

GASO8.1 #36

Blocks per game

MTSU4.0 #76

GASO3.6 #128

MTSU		GASO
Scoring
73.5 #216	Points per game	79.9 #69
1.08 #195	Points per possession	1.12 #109
68.3 #216	Pace (possessions)	71.8 #42
Shooting
51.6 #167	Effective FG%	51.4 #176
33.8 #183	3-point %	33.4 #207
45.3 #61	3-point attempt rate	48.9 #20
32.7 #245	Free throw rate	39.6 #62
Possessions
17.1 #214	Turnover rate	14.7 #49
30.7 #171	Offensive rebound rate	28.8 #238
13.7 #168	Assists per game	10.7 #344
Defense
74.6 #180	Points allowed	80.3 #325
1.09 #205	Points allowed per possession	1.11 #259
51.0 #155	Opponent effective FG%	52.3 #230
34.0 #180	Opponent 3-point %	34.4 #208
14.9 #293	Turnovers forced	18.7 #65
71.5 #83	Defensive rebound rate	64.8 #342
5.8 #265	Steals per game	8.1 #36
4.0 #76	Blocks per game	3.6 #128

From the box scores. A longer bar is a better national rank, on every row; the better team's bar is solid. A green rank is near the top of Division I, a red one near the bottom. Pace and 3-point rate are styles, so they have no better side.

MTSU

14-15 in 2025-26 overall · 11-10 in conference · Conference USA

Last five, 2025-26

Lvs Louisiana Tech69–80
W@ Missouri St75–63
W@ FIU73–67
Wvs New Mexico St86–85
Wvs UTEP77–67

A week or more of rest.

GA Southern

19-16 in 2025-26 overall · 13-11 in conference · Sun Belt Conference

Last five, 2025-26

Lvs Troy61–77
Wvs Marshall82–78
Wvs Coastal96–72
Wvs South Alabama94–85
Wvs Arkansas St80–77

A week or more of rest.

Middle Tennessee Blue Raiders at Georgia Southern Eagles

What could decide it: MTSU has more of the edges

Market

Model vs market

1st-half model

ATS

Totals

Last 10 games

Next 3 games

ATS History · 2025-26

MTSU

GA Southern

MTSU has the better starters

Depth chart

Matchup stats

MTSU

GA Southern