Mississippi State Bulldogs at UCF Knights: Model Line and Edge

Tue, Nov 17, 7:00 PM ETAddition Financial Arena · at UCF

#39UCFUCF

LineNo line yet

Total—

Season records: Mississippi St and UCF
MSST	This season	UCF
0-0	Record	0-0
0-0	ATS	0-0
0-0	O/U	0-0

ATS = covered-didn’t-push · O/U = overs-unders

Model: projects UCF 86–79 · win probability UCF 72%

Pick this game

Your picksMy picks ›

Winner

Line

—

no line yet

Total

—

model 165.3

Model edge

—

No market line yet

Public

—

No split yet for this game

The model has not beaten the closing line: with an edge of 3 or more it went 409-367 in 2025-26. Model record

What could decide it: UCF has more of the edges

MSST 1, UCF 5 · 2025-26 numbers until both teams have played three games

UCFBig

Rebounding

Offensive rebound rate: MSST 29.8%, UCF 35.0%. Defensive: MSST 69.3%, UCF 71.2%

UCFSmall

Three-pointers

MSST hits 32.4% and allows 33.9%; UCF hits 36.2% and allows 33.9%. Threes are 40.1% and 34.8% of their shots

UCFSmall

UCF offense vs MSST defense

Offense 18th of 366 against a defense 88th, on the model’s ratings

UCFSmall

Turnovers

Turnover rate: MSST 16.0%, UCF 16.0%. Forced: MSST 12.8%, UCF 15.7%

MSSTSmall

MSST offense vs UCF defense

Offense 34th of 366 against a defense 93rd, on the model’s ratings

UCFSmall

Home court

UCF at home. This season: UCF 0-0 at home, MSST 0-0 away

Even

Free throws

Free throw rate: MSST 30.6, UCF 30.5. Allowed: MSST 32.3, UCF 34.9

Context

Tempo

About 72 possessions: MSST plays 72.3 a game (29th fastest), UCF 71.2 (63rd). Faster games mean more points

Context

Schedule so far

MSST has played the 26th-hardest schedule, UCF the 41st. A record against a soft schedule means less

Even

Shooting

Effective FG%: MSST 51.5 and allows 50.9; UCF 52.6 and allows 52.1

Even

Who is back

Minutes back from last season: MSST 23%, UCF 20%. Transfers in: MSST 6, UCF 7. Early in a season, turnover makes teams harder to price

Sorted by how lopsided each matchup is, from national ranks. Reasons to look, not picks: the market already knows most of this.

Model vs market

	Market	Model	Model edge
Spread	—	UCF -6.6	—
Total	—	165.3	—
Projected score	—	MSST 79.4 · UCF 86

1st-half model

1st-half slate ›

	Model	Actual
1H spread	UCF -3.8	—
1H total	77.2	—
1H projected score	MSST 36.7 · UCF 40.5	—

The 1st-half model is fitted from the full-game model and past halves. ESPN has no 1st-half lines for college games, so there is no market to compare it with.

Showing 2025-26 until both teams have played this season.

ATS

2025-26 season

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
MSST LLLLL	10-22	31%	5-5	—
UCF LLWLW	16-17	48%	8-11	—

Venue/role: MSST away; UCF home. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

2025-26 season

	O-U	Over %	SU
MSST UUOOU	16-16	50%	13-19
UCF OUUUU	13-20	39%	21-12

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Tap for the score and line.

Last 10 games

2025-26

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
MSST	2-8 20%	2-8 20%	5-5 50%
UCF	4-6 40%	5-5 50%	4-6 40%

Wins-losses (pushes last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Next 3 games

With how the last meeting with each opponent went

Mississippi St

Date	Game	Last meeting
Nov 20	@ TLSA	No recent meeting
Nov 25	vs WAKE	No recent meeting
Dec 2	vs GT	W85–73WO

UCF

Date	Game	Last meeting
Nov 20	@ VAN	L93–105LO
Nov 26	vs BC	No recent meeting
Nov 27	vs UGA	No recent meeting

Last meeting: result, against the spread, over / under. Hover a result for its date.

ATS History · 2025-26

WwinLloss·Wats winLats lossPpush·Owent over the totalUwent under the total

Mississippi St

32 games played

Straight up

13-19

41% wins

Against the spread

10-22

31% covers · avg −4.4 pts vs the line

Over / Under

16-16

50% overs · avg +3.1 pts vs the total

Straight up

13-1941%

W L W L L W L W L W W W W W W L L L L L W L L L W W L L L L L L

6 straight losses0 of last 4 won

Against the spread

10-2231%

L L L L L L L W L W L W W W W L L L L L W W L L W W L L L L L L

6 straight misses ATS0 of last 4 covered

Over / Under

16-1650%

U O U O O U O O U O O U U O U O O U U U U O U U O O O U U O O U

2 of last 4 overno streak

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Nov 5	vsUNA	W 86-62	-24.5	L −0.5	151.5	U 148
Nov 10	vsISU	L 80-96	+5.5	L −10.5	150.5	O 176
Nov 15	vsSELA	W 75-68	-27.5	L −20.5	150.5	U 143
Nov 20	vsKSU	L 77-98	-2.5	L −23.5	164.5	O 175
Nov 21	vsUNM	L 78-80	-6.5	L −8.5	151.5	O 158
Nov 24	vsNOLA	W 81-78	-23.5	L −20.5	160.5	U 159
Nov 28	vsSMU	L 81-87	-1.5	L −7.5	162.5	O 168
Dec 3	@GT	W 85-73	-1.5	W +10.5	150.5	O 158
Dec 7	vsSF	L 62-65	-4.5	L −7.5	150.5	U 127
Dec 13	vsUTAH	W 82-74	-1.5	W +6.5	153.5	O 156
Dec 16	vsLIU	W 87-83	-16.5	L −12.5	152.5	O 170
Dec 20	vsMEM	W 71-66	-3.5	W +1.5	153.5	U 137
Dec 29	vsALST	W 94-56	-17.5	W +20.5	154.5	U 150
Jan 3	@TEX	W 101-98	+9.5	W +12.5	157.5	O 199
Jan 7	vsOU	W 72-53	-1.5	W +17.5	158.5	U 125
Jan 10	@UK	L 68-92	+10.5	L −13.5	152.5	O 160
Jan 13	vsALA	L 82-97	+4.5	L −10.5	171.5	O 179
Jan 17	vsMISS	L 67-68	-3.5	L −4.5	147.5	U 135
Jan 21	@TA&M	L 68-88	+8.5	L −11.5	163.5	U 156
Jan 24	vsVAN	L 56-88	+7.5	L −24.5	159.5	U 144
Jan 28	@LSU	W 80-66	+7.5	W +21.5	154.5	U 146
Jan 31	@MIZ	L 79-84	+6.5	W +1.5	146.5	O 163
Feb 7	vsARK	L 68-88	+5.5	L −14.5	163.5	U 156
Feb 11	vsTENN	L 64-73	+8.5	L −0.5	147.5	U 137
Feb 14	@MISS	W 90-78	+3.5	W +15.5	146.5	O 168
Feb 18	vsAUB	W 91-85	+5.5	W +11.5	155.5	O 176
Feb 21	@SC	L 89-97	-1.5	L −9.5	151.5	O 186
Feb 25	@ALA	L 75-100	+12.5	L −12.5	176.5	U 175
Feb 28	vsMIZ	L 64-88	+1.5	L −22.5	154.5	U 152
Mar 3	@FLA	L 74-108	+20.5	L −13.5	161.5	O 182
Mar 7	vsUGA	L 96-102	+5.5	L −0.5	167.5	O 198
Mar 11	vsAUB	L 61-79	+8.5	L −9.5	160.5	U 140

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

UNA

W 86-62

−0.5

ISU

L 80-96

−10.5

SELA

W 75-68

−20.5

KSU

L 77-98

−23.5

UNM

L 78-80

−8.5

NOLA

W 81-78

−20.5

SMU

L 81-87

−7.5

W 85-73

+10.5

L 62-65

−7.5

UTAH

W 82-74

+6.5

LIU

W 87-83

−12.5

MEM

W 71-66

+1.5

ALST

W 94-56

+20.5

TEX

W 101-98

+12.5

W 72-53

+17.5

L 68-92

−13.5

ALA

L 82-97

−10.5

MISS

L 67-68

−4.5

TA&M

L 68-88

−11.5

VAN

L 56-88

−24.5

LSU

W 80-66

+21.5

MIZ

L 79-84

+1.5

ARK

L 68-88

−14.5

TENN

L 64-73

−0.5

MISS

W 90-78

+15.5

AUB

W 91-85

+11.5

L 89-97

−9.5

ALA

L 75-100

−12.5

MIZ

L 64-88

−22.5

FLA

L 74-108

−13.5

UGA

L 96-102

−0.5

AUB

L 61-79

−9.5

covered 10didn’t cover 22avg −4.4 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

UNA

W 86-62

−3.5

ISU

L 80-96

+25.5

SELA

W 75-68

−7.5

KSU

L 77-98

+10.5

UNM

L 78-80

+6.5

NOLA

W 81-78

−1.5

SMU

L 81-87

+5.5

W 85-73

+7.5

L 62-65

−23.5

UTAH

W 82-74

+2.5

LIU

W 87-83

+17.5

MEM

W 71-66

−16.5

ALST

W 94-56

−4.5

TEX

W 101-98

+41.5

W 72-53

−33.5

L 68-92

+7.5

ALA

L 82-97

+7.5

MISS

L 67-68

−12.5

TA&M

L 68-88

−7.5

VAN

L 56-88

−15.5

LSU

W 80-66

−8.5

MIZ

L 79-84

+16.5

ARK

L 68-88

−7.5

TENN

L 64-73

−10.5

MISS

W 90-78

+21.5

AUB

W 91-85

+20.5

L 89-97

+34.5

ALA

L 75-100

−1.5

MIZ

L 64-88

−2.5

FLA

L 74-108

+20.5

UGA

L 96-102

+30.5

AUB

L 61-79

−20.5

over 16under 16avg +3.1 ptslonger = bigger margin

UCF

33 games played

Straight up

21-12

64% wins

Against the spread

16-17

48% covers · avg +1.3 pts vs the line

Over / Under

13-20

39% overs · avg +1.2 pts vs the total

Straight up

21-1264%

W L W W W W W W W W W W W L W W L L W W W L L L W W W L L L W L L

2 straight losses1 of last 4 won

Against the spread

16-1748%

L L W W L W L L W W W L W L L W W L W L W L L L W W W L L L W L W

2 of last 4 coveredno streak

Over / Under

13-2039%

O O U U O U O U U U O O U U U U U U O U O U O O U U O O O U U U U

4 straight unders0 of last 4 over

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Nov 3	vsHOF	W 82-78	-8.5	L −4.5	140.5	O 160
Nov 8	vsVAN	L 93-105	+10.5	L −1.5	166.5	O 198
Nov 11	vsFAMU	W 97-60	-23.5	W +13.5	169.5	U 157
Nov 14	@TA&M	W 86-74	+10.5	W +22.5	172.5	U 160
Nov 17	vsOAK	W 87-83	-13.5	L −9.5	163.5	O 170
Nov 20	vsPITT	W 77-67	+1.5	W +11.5	149.5	U 144
Nov 25	vsQUIN	W 102-91	-13.5	L −2.5	162.5	O 193
Nov 29	vsVMI	W 82-57	-25.5	L −0.5	159.5	U 139
Dec 7	vsTOW	W 86-61	-9.5	W +15.5	148.5	U 147
Dec 17	vsMER	W 81-63	-16.5	W +1.5	160.5	U 144
Dec 20	vsFGCU	W 102-80	-17.5	W +4.5	161.5	O 182
Dec 23	vsFAU	W 85-80	-8.5	L −3.5	162.5	O 165
Jan 3	vsKU	W 81-75	+4.5	W +10.5	157.5	U 156
Jan 6	@OKST	L 76-87	+1.5	L −9.5	175.5	U 163
Jan 11	vsCIN	W 73-72	-2.5	L −1.5	150.5	U 145
Jan 14	@KSU	W 82-73	+2.5	W +11.5	170.5	U 155
Jan 17	vsARIZ	L 77-84	+9.5	W +2.5	165.5	U 161
Jan 20	@ISU	L 57-87	+14.5	L −15.5	156.5	U 144
Jan 24	@COLO	W 95-86	+3.5	W +12.5	159.5	O 181
Jan 27	vsASU	W 79-76	-6.5	L −3.5	161.5	U 155
Jan 31	vsTTU	W 88-80	+5.5	W +13.5	159.5	O 168
Feb 4	@HOU	L 55-79	+15.5	L −8.5	146.5	U 134
Feb 8	@CIN	L 72-92	+4.5	L −15.5	146.5	O 164
Feb 14	vsWVU	L 67-74	-3.5	L −10.5	140.5	O 141
Feb 17	vsTCU	W 82-71	+1.5	W +12.5	154.5	U 153
Feb 21	@UTAH	W 73-71	-1.5	W +0.5	154.5	U 144
Feb 24	@BYU	W 97-84	+14.5	W +27.5	162.5	O 181
Feb 28	vsBAY	L 86-87	-1.5	L −2.5	159.5	O 173
Mar 3	vsOKST	L 104-111	-8.5	L −15.5	167.5	O 215
Mar 6	@WVU	L 62-77	+4.5	L −10.5	142.5	U 139
Mar 11	vsCIN	W 66-65	+3.5	W +4.5	149.5	U 131
Mar 12	vsARIZ	L 59-81	+15.5	L −6.5	159.5	U 140
Mar 20	vsUCLA	L 71-75	+5.5	W +1.5	151.5	U 146

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

HOF

W 82-78

−4.5

VAN

L 93-105

−1.5

FAMU

W 97-60

+13.5

TA&M

W 86-74

+22.5

OAK

W 87-83

−9.5

PITT

W 77-67

+11.5

QUIN

W 102-91

−2.5

VMI

W 82-57

−0.5

TOW

W 86-61

+15.5

MER

W 81-63

+1.5

FGCU

W 102-80

+4.5

FAU

W 85-80

−3.5

W 81-75

+10.5

OKST

L 76-87

−9.5

CIN

W 73-72

−1.5

KSU

W 82-73

+11.5

ARIZ

L 77-84

+2.5

ISU

L 57-87

−15.5

COLO

W 95-86

+12.5

ASU

W 79-76

−3.5

TTU

W 88-80

+13.5

HOU

L 55-79

−8.5

CIN

L 72-92

−15.5

WVU

L 67-74

−10.5

TCU

W 82-71

+12.5

UTAH

W 73-71

+0.5

BYU

W 97-84

+27.5

BAY

L 86-87

−2.5

OKST

L 104-111

−15.5

WVU

L 62-77

−10.5

CIN

W 66-65

+4.5

ARIZ

L 59-81

−6.5

UCLA

L 71-75

+1.5

covered 16didn’t cover 17avg +1.3 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

HOF

W 82-78

+19.5

VAN

L 93-105

+31.5

FAMU

W 97-60

−12.5

TA&M

W 86-74

−12.5

OAK

W 87-83

+6.5

PITT

W 77-67

−5.5

QUIN

W 102-91

+30.5

VMI

W 82-57

−20.5

TOW

W 86-61

−1.5

MER

W 81-63

−16.5

FGCU

W 102-80

+20.5

FAU

W 85-80

+2.5

W 81-75

−1.5

OKST

L 76-87

−12.5

CIN

W 73-72

−5.5

KSU

W 82-73

−15.5

ARIZ

L 77-84

−4.5

ISU

L 57-87

−12.5

COLO

W 95-86

+21.5

ASU

W 79-76

−6.5

TTU

W 88-80

+8.5

HOU

L 55-79

−12.5

CIN

L 72-92

+17.5

WVU

L 67-74

+0.5

TCU

W 82-71

−1.5

UTAH

W 73-71

−10.5

BYU

W 97-84

+18.5

BAY

L 86-87

+13.5

OKST

L 104-111

+47.5

WVU

L 62-77

−3.5

CIN

W 66-65

−18.5

ARIZ

L 59-81

−19.5

UCLA

L 71-75

−5.5

over 13under 20avg +1.2 ptslonger = bigger margin

Line = the team’s closing spread (negative = favored). ATS number = points beyond the line; total number = combined points.

The starting fives are even

Position by position: Mississippi St 1, UCF 1, even 3

Mississippi StBetterUCF

G J. Hubbard22.1 pts · 2.5 reb · 3.6 ast Score 99

MSSTBig

G C. Vasko TR11 pts · 4.7 reb · 4.1 ast Score 52

G R. Johnson TR14.8 pts · 3 reb · 3.9 ast Score 86

Even

G D. Johnson TR23.5 pts · 3.2 reb · 1.6 ast Score 100

G T. Simpkins TR9.7 pts · 2.8 reb · 1.2 ast Score 83

Even

F L. Walker TR18.7 pts · 4.9 reb · 1.8 ast Score 87

F K. Sanders TR5.2 pts · 3.1 reb · 0.7 ast Score 31

UCFBig

F I. Malone TR10.4 pts · 5.5 reb · 0.5 ast Score 82

C N. Okafor TR11.2 pts · 5.6 reb · 0.9 ast Score 71

Even

F C. Abass TR8.4 pts · 5.7 reb · 0.5 ast Score 70

Mississippi StBetterUCF

MSST offense34th of 366 · +5.5

MSSTSmall

UCF defense93rd of 366 · -0.4

MSST defense88th of 366 · -0.1

UCFSmall

UCF offense18th of 366 · +8.0

Backcourt+9.6 · 3 players

MSSTSmall

Backcourt+7.4 · 2 players

Frontcourt+0.6 · 2 players

UCFBig

Frontcourt+5.3 · 3 players

Bench-2.0 · 3 players

UCFBig

Bench+2.0 · 5 players

Score, worst to bestMSST betterUCF betterTR transfer · NEW no Division I numbers

Projected starters: college teams publish no depth chart, so these come from minutes played, and a freshman or a new starter can change them. The score is the share of ranked players at the position that player is ahead of. Numbers are this season's once a player has 30 minutes, 2025-26's before that. Bench is the next five by minutes. Tap a player for the full numbers.

Depth chart

Projected rotation by position, starters outlined

Mississippi St

Guards

J. Hubbard33 minR. Johnson29 min · TRT. Simpkins25 min · TRK. Grace12 minA. Magee11 min · TRC. PaulNew

Forwards

K. Sanders20 min · TRT. Bassong19 min · TRT. ReedNew

Centers

N. Okafor23 min · TRG. CholNewT. BartlettNewT. ReedNew

UCF

Guards

C. Vasko33 min · TRD. Johnson26 min · TRM. Dean17 min · TRC. Pacheco16 minA. DeanNewT. JonesNew

Forwards

L. Walker34 min · TRI. Malone23 min · TRC. Abass20 min · TRJ. Asemota8 min · TRL. GivanNewD. MannNew

Centers

J. Bol19 minE. Hulsewe5 min

In order of minutes, from rosters as of today. ESPN lists players only as guards, forwards or centers, and no injury report exists for college basketball, so a player who is out may still show here.

Showing 2025-26 until both teams have played this season.

Matchup stats

2025-26 · rank among 365 teams

ChartTable

Scoring

Points per game

MSST77.6 #103

UCF80.7 #53

Points per possession

MSST1.07 #205

UCF1.13 #77

Pace (possessions)

MSST72.3 #29

UCF71.2 #63

Shooting

Effective FG%

MSST51.5 #172

UCF52.6 #123

3-point %

MSST32.4 #262

UCF36.2 #49

3-point attempt rate

MSST40.1 #169

UCF34.8 #281

Free throw rate

MSST30.6 #288

UCF30.5 #295

Possessions

Turnover rate

MSST16.0 #143

UCF16.0 #137

Offensive rebound rate

MSST29.8 #210

UCF35.0 #47

Assists per game

MSST12.8 #231

UCF15.7 #56

Defense

Points allowed

MSST81.8 #338

UCF78.3 #274

Points allowed per possession

MSST1.13 #299

UCF1.10 #219

Opponent effective FG%

MSST50.9 #154

UCF52.1 #221

Opponent 3-point %

MSST33.9 #179

UCF33.9 #176

Turnovers forced

MSST12.8 #358

UCF15.7 #241

Defensive rebound rate

MSST69.3 #190

UCF71.2 #96

Steals per game

MSST5.8 #260

UCF5.6 #285

Blocks per game

MSST4.4 #44

UCF3.0 #225

MSST		UCF
Scoring
77.6 #103	Points per game	80.7 #53
1.07 #205	Points per possession	1.13 #77
72.3 #29	Pace (possessions)	71.2 #63
Shooting
51.5 #172	Effective FG%	52.6 #123
32.4 #262	3-point %	36.2 #49
40.1 #169	3-point attempt rate	34.8 #281
30.6 #288	Free throw rate	30.5 #295
Possessions
16.0 #143	Turnover rate	16.0 #137
29.8 #210	Offensive rebound rate	35.0 #47
12.8 #231	Assists per game	15.7 #56
Defense
81.8 #338	Points allowed	78.3 #274
1.13 #299	Points allowed per possession	1.10 #219
50.9 #154	Opponent effective FG%	52.1 #221
33.9 #179	Opponent 3-point %	33.9 #176
12.8 #358	Turnovers forced	15.7 #241
69.3 #190	Defensive rebound rate	71.2 #96
5.8 #260	Steals per game	5.6 #285
4.4 #44	Blocks per game	3.0 #225

From the box scores. A longer bar is a better national rank, on every row; the better team's bar is solid. A green rank is near the top of Division I, a red one near the bottom. Pace and 3-point rate are styles, so they have no better side.

Mississippi St

13-19 in 2025-26 overall · 5-14 in conference · Southeastern Conference

Last five, 2025-26

Lvs Auburn61–79
Lvs Georgia96–102
L@ Florida74–108
Lvs Missouri64–88
L@ Alabama75–100

A week or more of rest.

UCF

21-12 in 2025-26 overall · 10-10 in conference · Big 12 Conference

Last five, 2025-26

Lvs UCLA71–75
Lvs Arizona59–81
Wvs Cincinnati66–65
L@ West Virginia62–77
Lvs Oklahoma St104–111

A week or more of rest.

Mississippi State Bulldogs at UCF Knights

What could decide it: UCF has more of the edges

Market

Model vs market

1st-half model

ATS

Totals

Last 10 games

Next 3 games

ATS History · 2025-26

Mississippi St

UCF

The starting fives are even

Depth chart

Matchup stats

Mississippi St

UCF