1. NCAAB
  2. Fri, Nov 13
  3. SIUE @ DUKE
NCAAB · Fri, Nov 13

SIU Edwardsville Cougars at Duke Blue Devils

Cameron Indoor Stadium · at Duke
#257SIUESIUE
@
#3DUKEDuke AP #2
LineNo line yet 
Total— 
SIUEThis seasonDUKE
0-0Record0-0
0-0ATS0-0
0-0O/U0-0

ATS = covered-didn’t-push · O/U = overs-unders

Model: projects DUKE 89–50 · win probability DUKE 100%
Pick this game
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Winner
Line
—
no line yet
Total
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model 139.3
Model edge
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No market line yet
Public
—
No split yet for this game
The model has not beaten the closing line: with an edge of 3 or more it went 409-367 in 2025-26. Model record

What could decide it: DUKE has more of the edges

SIUE 0, DUKE 7 · 2025-26 numbers until both teams have played three games
Context
Schedule so far
SIUE has played the 365th-hardest schedule, DUKE the 23rd. A record against a soft schedule means less
DUKEBig
SIUE offense vs DUKE defense
Offense 329th of 366 against a defense 3rd, on the model’s ratings
DUKEBig
Rebounding
Offensive rebound rate: SIUE 30.1%, DUKE 38.4%. Defensive: SIUE 68.4%, DUKE 74.8%
DUKEBig
Free throws
Free throw rate: SIUE 30.6, DUKE 38.2. Allowed: SIUE 34.3, DUKE 22.8
DUKEBig
DUKE offense vs SIUE defense
Offense 11th of 366 against a defense 161st, on the model’s ratings
DUKEBig
Shooting
Effective FG%: SIUE 49.5 and allows 45.6; DUKE 56.6 and allows 46.2
DUKESmall
Turnovers
Turnover rate: SIUE 17.9%, DUKE 16.0%. Forced: SIUE 17.1%, DUKE 17.2%
DUKESmall
Home court
DUKE at home. This season: DUKE 0-0 at home, SIUE 0-0 away
Even
Three-pointers
SIUE hits 35.0% and allows 30.2%; DUKE hits 34.7% and allows 30.6%. Threes are 36.2% and 43.5% of their shots
Context
Tempo
About 66 possessions: SIUE plays 66.1 a game (306th fastest), DUKE 66.8 (285th). Faster games mean more points
Even
Who is back
Minutes back from last season: SIUE 52%, DUKE 47%. Transfers in: SIUE 2, DUKE 3. Early in a season, turnover makes teams harder to price
Sorted by how lopsided each matchup is, from national ranks. Reasons to look, not picks: the market already knows most of this.

Market

Open → current
Spread
Opening line not available
Total
 
Moneyline
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Pre-game lines only (ESPN, DraftKings first). After tip-off the line shown is the closing line.

Model vs market

MarketModelModel edge
Spread—DUKE -39.5—
Total—139.3—
Projected score—SIUE 49.9 · DUKE 89.4

1st-half model

1st-half slate ›
ModelActual
1H spreadDUKE -23.4—
1H total65.2—
1H projected scoreSIUE 20.9 · DUKE 44.3—
The 1st-half model is fitted from the full-game model and past halves. ESPN has no 1st-half lines for college games, so there is no market to compare it with.

Duke has the better starters

Position by position: SIUE 0, Duke 3, even 2
SIUEBetterDuke
G G. Cobb TR9.8 pts · 2.6 reb · 3.6 ast Score 40
DUKEBig
G J. Blackwell TR19.1 pts · 5.1 reb · 2.3 ast Score 97
G T. King10.1 pts · 2.6 reb · 1 ast Score 66
Even
G C. Foster8.3 pts · 3.5 reb · 2.8 ast Score 76
G J. Pickett4.6 pts · 2.9 reb · 1.1 ast Score 7
DUKEBig
G J. Theodosiou TR12.8 pts · 3.5 reb · 2.6 ast Score 86
F G. Liberis7 pts · 4.8 reb · 1 ast Score 9
DUKEBig
G C. Boozer7.7 pts · 2.3 reb · 3 ast Score 85
F D. Baker7.7 pts · 4 reb · 0.7 ast Score 40
Even
F D. Sarr6.4 pts · 3.8 reb · 1.1 ast Score 52
SIUEBetterDuke
SIUE offense329th of 366 · -10.6
DUKEBig
DUKE defense3rd of 366 · +11.4
SIUE defense161st of 366 · -3.6
DUKEBig
DUKE offense11th of 366 · +10.1
Backcourt-3.6 · 3 players
DUKEBig
Backcourt+9.2 · 4 players
Frontcourt-3.3 · 2 players
DUKEBig
Frontcourt-0.2 · 1 player
Bench-1.5 · 4 players
DUKEBig
Bench+7.0 · 2 players
Score, worst to bestSIUE betterDUKE betterTR transfer · NEW no Division I numbers
Projected starters: college teams publish no depth chart, so these come from minutes played, and a freshman or a new starter can change them. The score is the share of ranked players at the position that player is ahead of. Numbers are this season's once a player has 30 minutes, 2025-26's before that. Bench is the next five by minutes. Tap a player for the full numbers.

Depth chart

Projected rotation by position, starters outlined
SIUE
Guards
G. Cobb29 min · TRT. King22 minJ. Pickett20 minC. Efono9 minH. Alexander7 minD. McCaskillNew
Forwards
G. Liberis24 minD. Baker21 minI. Baganc2 minD. WilsonNewB. SohaibNewB. MillerNew
Centers
J. Martin1 min · TR
Duke
Guards
J. Blackwell34 min · TRC. Foster25 minJ. Theodosiou23 min · TRC. Boozer23 minB. DavisNewD. RippeyNew
Forwards
D. Sarr24 minD. Scharnowski22 min · TRS. WilkinsNewC. WilliamsNew
Centers
P. Ngongba22 minM. MeyerNewJ. Boumtje BoumtjeNew
In order of minutes, from rosters as of today. ESPN lists players only as guards, forwards or centers, and no injury report exists for college basketball, so a player who is out may still show here.
Showing 2025-26 until both teams have played this season.

Matchup stats

2025-26 · rank among 365 teams
Scoring
Shooting
Possessions
Defense
SIUEDUKE
Scoring
67.7 #321Points per game81.6 #36
1.02 #304Points per possession1.23 #4
66.1 #306Pace (possessions)66.8 #285
Shooting
49.5 #266Effective FG%56.6 #13
35.0 #1233-point %34.7 #133
36.2 #2463-point attempt rate43.5 #100
30.6 #294Free throw rate38.2 #97
Possessions
17.9 #266Turnover rate16.0 #139
30.1 #195Offensive rebound rate38.4 #4
12.4 #255Assists per game16.7 #32
Defense
65.9 #13Points allowed63.6 #3
1.00 #26Points allowed per possession0.95 #2
45.6 #6Opponent effective FG%46.2 #13
30.2 #10Opponent 3-point %30.6 #27
17.1 #143Turnovers forced17.2 #133
68.4 #235Defensive rebound rate74.8 #10
6.9 #138Steals per game7.4 #92
4.0 #70Blocks per game3.4 #164
From the box scores. A longer bar is a better national rank, on every row; the better team's bar is solid. A green rank is near the top of Division I, a red one near the bottom. Pace and 3-point rate are styles, so they have no better side.

SIUE

16-13 in 2025-26 overall · 12-9 in conference · Ohio Valley Conference

Last five, 2025-26
  • Lvs E Illinois71–77
  • Wvs E Illinois77–50
  • Wvs W Illinois67–47
  • L@ Tennessee St53–80
  • L@ Tennessee Tech52–62

A week or more of rest.

Duke

35-3 in 2025-26 overall · 20-1 in conference · Atlantic Coast Conference

Last five, 2025-26
  • Lvs UConn72–73
  • Wvs St John's80–75
  • Wvs TCU81–58
  • Wvs Siena71–65
  • Wvs Virginia74–70

A week or more of rest.