1. NCAAB
  2. Fri, Nov 13
  3. UVA @ MD
NCAAB · Fri, Nov 13

Virginia Cavaliers at Maryland Terrapins

XFINITY Center · at Maryland
#20UVAVirginia AP #9
@
#50MDMaryland
LineNo line yet 
Total— 
UVAThis seasonMD
0-0Record0-0
0-0ATS0-0
0-0O/U0-0

ATS = covered-didn’t-push · O/U = overs-unders

Model: projects UVA 77–71 · win probability UVA 70%
Pick this game
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Winner
Line
—
no line yet
Total
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model 148.8
Model edge
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No market line yet
Public
—
No split yet for this game
The model has not beaten the closing line: with an edge of 3 or more it went 409-367 in 2025-26. Model record

What could decide it: UVA has more of the edges

UVA 4, MD 1 · 2025-26 numbers until both teams have played three games
UVABig
Shooting
Effective FG%: UVA 54.6 and allows 45.8; MD 48.1 and allows 54.4
UVABig
Three-pointers
UVA hits 36.3% and allows 31.6%; MD hits 31.7% and allows 36.3%. Threes are 46.7% and 46.9% of their shots
UVASmall
Turnovers
Turnover rate: UVA 16.0%, MD 18.6%. Forced: UVA 15.4%, MD 14.9%
MDSmall
Home court
MD at home. This season: MD 0-0 at home, UVA 0-0 away
UVASmall
MD offense vs UVA defense
Offense 63rd of 366 against a defense 13th, on the model’s ratings
Context
Schedule so far
UVA has played the 68th-hardest schedule, MD the 28th. A record against a soft schedule means less
Even
Rebounding
Offensive rebound rate: UVA 37.9%, MD 33.8%. Defensive: UVA 70.8%, MD 70.9%
Even
Who is back
Minutes back from last season: UVA 57%, MD 47%. Transfers in: UVA 3, MD 5. Early in a season, turnover makes teams harder to price
Even
Free throws
Free throw rate: UVA 32.3, MD 36.4. Allowed: UVA 32.9, MD 35.8
Context
Tempo
About 67 possessions: UVA plays 67.6 a game (247th fastest), MD 67.0 (281st). Faster games mean more points
Even
UVA offense vs MD defense
Offense 32nd of 366 against a defense 34th, on the model’s ratings
Sorted by how lopsided each matchup is, from national ranks. Reasons to look, not picks: the market already knows most of this.

Market

Open → current
Spread
Opening line not available
Total
 
Moneyline
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Pre-game lines only (ESPN, DraftKings first). After tip-off the line shown is the closing line.

Model vs market

MarketModelModel edge
Spread—UVA -6.1—
Total—148.8—
Projected score—UVA 77.4 · MD 71.4

1st-half model

1st-half slate ›
ModelActual
1H spreadUVA -3.8—
1H total69.6—
1H projected scoreUVA 36.7 · MD 32.9—
The 1st-half model is fitted from the full-game model and past halves. ESPN has no 1st-half lines for college games, so there is no market to compare it with.

Maryland has the better starters

Position by position: Virginia 0, Maryland 2, even 3
VirginiaBetterMaryland
G J. Dixon TR15.7 pts · 3.7 reb · 2.4 ast Score 82
Even
G M. McNair TR16.9 pts · 5.2 reb · 2.2 ast Score 84
G J. Vide TR12 pts · 3.1 reb · 4 ast Score 66
MDSmall
G A. Mills12.2 pts · 4.1 reb · 1.6 ast Score 89
G C. Harmon TR13.2 pts · 3.7 reb · 2.4 ast Score 73
Even
G B. Boswell TR6.2 pts · 4.4 reb · 3.1 ast Score 70
G S. Lewis10.6 pts · 3.6 reb · 1.4 ast Score 77
MDSmall
F P. Payne17.5 pts · 7.2 reb · 1.4 ast Score 100
F T. De Ridder15.6 pts · 6.2 reb · 1.6 ast Score 95
Even
F T. Buljan TR13.1 pts · 10.3 reb · 1.5 ast Score 97
VirginiaBetterMaryland
UVA offense32nd of 366 · +5.9
Even
MD defense34th of 366 · +3.3
UVA defense13th of 366 · +6.6
Even
MD offense63rd of 366 · +2.4
Backcourt+3.7 · 4 players
MDSmall
Backcourt+4.9 · 3 players
Frontcourt+4.2 · 1 player
MDBig
Frontcourt+11.4 · 2 players
Bench+3.8 · 5 players
UVABig
Bench-2.3 · 5 players
Score, worst to bestUVA betterMD betterTR transfer · NEW no Division I numbers
Projected starters: college teams publish no depth chart, so these come from minutes played, and a freshman or a new starter can change them. The score is the share of ranked players at the position that player is ahead of. Numbers are this season's once a player has 30 minutes, 2025-26's before that. Bench is the next five by minutes. Tap a player for the full numbers.

Depth chart

Projected rotation by position, starters outlined
Virginia
Guards
J. Dixon31 min · TRJ. Vide29 min · TRC. Harmon28 min · TRS. Lewis26 minC. Mallory24 minE. Gertrude6 min
Forwards
T. De Ridder28 minC. Lang2 minK. AnyaNewS. BarksdaleNewN. AdekunleNew
Centers
J. Grunloh21 minF. IbeNew
Maryland
Guards
M. McNair37 min · TRA. Mills27 minB. Boswell27 min · TRD. Wagner24 min · TRM. Jabriel20 minG. Turkson11 min
Forwards
P. Payne27 minT. Buljan26 min · TRR. Jennings13 min · TRA. BrownNewB. OladotunNewA. TambedouNew
Centers
A. K'MedehoutoNew
In order of minutes, from rosters as of today. ESPN lists players only as guards, forwards or centers, and no injury report exists for college basketball, so a player who is out may still show here.
Showing 2025-26 until both teams have played this season.

Matchup stats

2025-26 · rank among 365 teams
Scoring
Shooting
Possessions
Defense
UVAMD
Scoring
80.4 #57Points per game69.7 #291
1.19 #21Points per possession1.04 #270
67.6 #247Pace (possessions)67.0 #281
Shooting
54.6 #49Effective FG%48.1 #311
36.3 #483-point %31.7 #293
46.7 #363-point attempt rate46.9 #35
32.3 #253Free throw rate36.4 #142
Possessions
16.0 #141Turnover rate18.6 #300
37.9 #9Offensive rebound rate33.8 #73
16.3 #41Assists per game10.4 #351
Defense
68.8 #46Points allowed76.6 #232
1.02 #39Points allowed per possession1.14 #312
45.8 #8Opponent effective FG%54.4 #312
31.6 #46Opponent 3-point %36.3 #317
15.4 #256Turnovers forced14.9 #294
70.8 #120Defensive rebound rate70.9 #111
6.3 #199Steals per game4.8 #345
6.4 #1Blocks per game2.9 #237
From the box scores. A longer bar is a better national rank, on every row; the better team's bar is solid. A green rank is near the top of Division I, a red one near the bottom. Pace and 3-point rate are styles, so they have no better side.

Virginia

30-6 in 2025-26 overall · 17-4 in conference · Atlantic Coast Conference

Last five, 2025-26
  • Lvs Tennessee72–79
  • Wvs Wright St82–73
  • Lvs Duke70–74
  • Wvs Miami84–62
  • Wvs NC State81–74

A week or more of rest.

Maryland

12-21 in 2025-26 overall · 5-17 in conference · Big Ten Conference

Last five, 2025-26
  • Lvs Iowa64–75
  • Wvs Oregon70–60
  • Lvs Illinois72–78
  • L@ Wisconsin45–78
  • Lvs Rutgers65–69

A week or more of rest.