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  2. Fri, Nov 20
  3. L-MD @ UVA
NCAAB · Fri, Nov 20

Loyola Maryland Greyhounds at Virginia Cavaliers

John Paul Jones Arena · at Virginia
#314L-MDLoyola MD
@
#20UVAVirginia AP #9
LineNo line yet 
Total— 
L-MDThis seasonUVA
0-0Record0-0
0-0ATS0-0
0-0O/U0-0

ATS = covered-didn’t-push · O/U = overs-unders

Model: projects UVA 94–57 · win probability UVA 100%
Pick this game
Your picksMy picks ›
Winner
Line
—
no line yet
Total
—
model 150.0
Model edge
—
No market line yet
Public
—
No split yet for this game
The model has not beaten the closing line: with an edge of 3 or more it went 409-367 in 2025-26. Model record

What could decide it: UVA has more of the edges

L-MD 0, UVA 7 · 2025-26 numbers until both teams have played three games
UVABig
L-MD offense vs UVA defense
Offense 307th of 366 against a defense 13th, on the model’s ratings
UVABig
UVA offense vs L-MD defense
Offense 32nd of 366 against a defense 313th, on the model’s ratings
UVABig
Shooting
Effective FG%: L-MD 50.4 and allows 54.7; UVA 54.6 and allows 45.8
Context
Schedule so far
L-MD has played the 299th-hardest schedule, UVA the 68th. A record against a soft schedule means less
UVABig
Three-pointers
L-MD hits 32.5% and allows 32.8%; UVA hits 36.3% and allows 31.6%. Threes are 47.2% and 46.7% of their shots
UVABig
Rebounding
Offensive rebound rate: L-MD 27.6%, UVA 37.9%. Defensive: L-MD 71.0%, UVA 70.8%
UVASmall
Home court
UVA at home. This season: UVA 0-0 at home, L-MD 0-0 away
UVASmall
Who is back
Minutes back from last season: L-MD 33%, UVA 57%. Transfers in: L-MD 5, UVA 3. Early in a season, turnover makes teams harder to price
Context
Tempo
About 68 possessions: L-MD plays 69.3 a game (165th fastest), UVA 67.6 (247th). Faster games mean more points
Even
Free throws
Free throw rate: L-MD 29.9, UVA 32.3. Allowed: L-MD 32.7, UVA 32.9
Even
Turnovers
Turnover rate: L-MD 15.4%, UVA 16.0%. Forced: L-MD 15.4%, UVA 15.4%
Sorted by how lopsided each matchup is, from national ranks. Reasons to look, not picks: the market already knows most of this.

Market

Open → current
Spread
Opening line not available
Total
 
Moneyline
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Pre-game lines only (ESPN, DraftKings first). After tip-off the line shown is the closing line.

Model vs market

MarketModelModel edge
Spread—UVA -37.0—
Total—150.0—
Projected score—L-MD 56.5 · UVA 93.5

1st-half model

1st-half slate ›
ModelActual
1H spreadUVA -21.9—
1H total70.2—
1H projected scoreL-MD 24.1 · UVA 46—
The 1st-half model is fitted from the full-game model and past halves. ESPN has no 1st-half lines for college games, so there is no market to compare it with.

Virginia has the better starters

Position by position: Loyola MD 0, Virginia 4, even 1
Loyola MDBetterVirginia
G T. Cicero5.4 pts · 2.2 reb · 0.7 ast Score 53
UVASmall
G J. Dixon TR15.7 pts · 3.7 reb · 2.4 ast Score 82
G C. Berg-McLean3.5 pts · 2.3 reb · 1.4 ast Score 21
UVABig
G J. Vide TR12 pts · 3.1 reb · 4 ast Score 66
F S. Springer4.4 pts · 2 reb · 0.6 ast Score 4
UVABig
G C. Harmon TR13.2 pts · 3.7 reb · 2.4 ast Score 73
F S. Emenalo3.1 pts · 3.1 reb · 0.4 ast Score 11
UVABig
G S. Lewis10.6 pts · 3.6 reb · 1.4 ast Score 77
F D. Harrison TR2.6 pts · 1.8 reb · 0 ast Not ranked
No call
F T. De Ridder15.6 pts · 6.2 reb · 1.6 ast Score 95
Loyola MDBetterVirginia
L-MD offense307th of 366 · -9.5
UVABig
UVA defense13th of 366 · +6.6
L-MD defense313th of 366 · -8.1
UVABig
UVA offense32nd of 366 · +5.9
Backcourt-1.4 · 2 players
UVABig
Backcourt+3.7 · 4 players
Frontcourt-4.7 · 3 players
UVABig
Frontcourt+4.2 · 1 player
Bench-3.1 · 5 players
UVABig
Bench+3.8 · 5 players
Score, worst to bestL-MD betterUVA betterTR transfer · NEW no Division I numbers
Projected starters: college teams publish no depth chart, so these come from minutes played, and a freshman or a new starter can change them. The score is the share of ranked players at the position that player is ahead of. Numbers are this season's once a player has 30 minutes, 2025-26's before that. Bench is the next five by minutes. Tap a player for the full numbers.

Depth chart

Projected rotation by position, starters outlined
Loyola MD
Guards
T. Cicero14 minC. Berg-McLean14 minM. Ortega8 min · TRL. RickettsNewR. LongNewS. BiegNew
Forwards
S. Springer17 minS. Emenalo15 minD. Harrison12 min · TRE. Barnes8 minM. Hagedorn7 min · TRA. Huguet7 min · TR
Virginia
Guards
J. Dixon31 min · TRJ. Vide29 min · TRC. Harmon28 min · TRS. Lewis26 minC. Mallory24 minE. Gertrude6 min
Forwards
T. De Ridder28 minC. Lang2 minK. AnyaNewS. BarksdaleNewN. AdekunleNew
Centers
J. Grunloh21 minF. IbeNew
In order of minutes, from rosters as of today. ESPN lists players only as guards, forwards or centers, and no injury report exists for college basketball, so a player who is out may still show here.
Showing 2025-26 until both teams have played this season.

Matchup stats

2025-26 · rank among 365 teams
Scoring
Shooting
Possessions
Defense
L-MDUVA
Scoring
73.7 #212Points per game80.4 #57
1.06 #227Points per possession1.19 #21
69.3 #165Pace (possessions)67.6 #247
Shooting
50.4 #219Effective FG%54.6 #49
32.5 #2513-point %36.3 #48
47.2 #303-point attempt rate46.7 #36
29.9 #312Free throw rate32.3 #253
Possessions
15.4 #101Turnover rate16.0 #141
27.6 #279Offensive rebound rate37.9 #9
12.6 #246Assists per game16.3 #41
Defense
78.5 #280Points allowed68.8 #46
1.14 #304Points allowed per possession1.02 #39
54.7 #321Opponent effective FG%45.8 #8
32.8 #106Opponent 3-point %31.6 #46
15.4 #261Turnovers forced15.4 #256
71.0 #103Defensive rebound rate70.8 #120
6.1 #221Steals per game6.3 #199
3.4 #156Blocks per game6.4 #1
From the box scores. A longer bar is a better national rank, on every row; the better team's bar is solid. A green rank is near the top of Division I, a red one near the bottom. Pace and 3-point rate are styles, so they have no better side.

Loyola MD

10-20 in 2025-26 overall · 8-11 in conference · Patriot League

Last five, 2025-26
  • L@ Colgate77–90
  • W@ Holy Cross76–62
  • Lvs Navy51–78
  • L@ Colgate98–101
  • Lvs Army77–87

A week or more of rest.

Virginia

30-6 in 2025-26 overall · 17-4 in conference · Atlantic Coast Conference

Last five, 2025-26
  • Lvs Tennessee72–79
  • Wvs Wright St82–73
  • Lvs Duke70–74
  • Wvs Miami84–62
  • Wvs NC State81–74

A week or more of rest.