Richmond Spiders vs Western Kentucky Hilltoppers: Model Line and Edge

Fri, Nov 20, 7:00 PM ETColonial Hall · Neutral site

LineNo line yet

Total—

Season records: Richmond and Western KY
RICH	This season	WKU
0-0	Record	0-0
0-0	ATS	0-0
0-0	O/U	0-0

ATS = covered-didn’t-push · O/U = overs-unders

Model: projects RICH 77–75 · win probability RICH 58%

Pick this game

Your picksMy picks ›

Winner

Line

—

no line yet

Total

—

model 151.7

Model edge

—

No market line yet

Public

—

No split yet for this game

The model has not beaten the closing line: with an edge of 3 or more it went 409-367 in 2025-26. Model record

What could decide it: RICH has more of the edges

RICH 3, WKU 1 · 2025-26 numbers until both teams have played three games

RICHBig

Three-pointers

RICH hits 37.1% and allows 32.7%; WKU hits 33.4% and allows 34.3%. Threes are 42.6% and 39.5% of their shots

WKUBig

Rebounding

Offensive rebound rate: RICH 25.0%, WKU 31.8%. Defensive: RICH 69.0%, WKU 70.5%

RICHSmall

Shooting

Effective FG%: RICH 52.7 and allows 52.0; WKU 47.5 and allows 51.2

Context

Tempo

About 70 possessions: RICH plays 68.8 a game (194th fastest), WKU 71.5 (52nd). Faster games mean more points

RICHSmall

RICH offense vs WKU defense

Offense 113th of 366 against a defense 169th, on the model’s ratings

Even

Free throws

Free throw rate: RICH 36.9, WKU 41.2. Allowed: RICH 35.1, WKU 46.8

Context

Schedule so far

RICH has played the 125th-hardest schedule, WKU the 160th. A record against a soft schedule means less

Even

Who is back

Minutes back from last season: RICH 29%, WKU 44%. Transfers in: RICH 6, WKU 4. Early in a season, turnover makes teams harder to price

Even

Turnovers

Turnover rate: RICH 14.3%, WKU 14.5%. Forced: RICH 17.8%, WKU 17.2%

Even

WKU offense vs RICH defense

Offense 115th of 366 against a defense 105th, on the model’s ratings

Context

Neutral floor

No home court: the model takes it out of the line

Sorted by how lopsided each matchup is, from national ranks. Reasons to look, not picks: the market already knows most of this.

Model vs market

	Market	Model	Model edge
Spread	—	RICH -2.4	—
Total	—	151.7	—
Projected score	—	RICH 77 · WKU 74.7

1st-half model

1st-half slate ›

	Model	Actual
1H spread	RICH -1.5	—
1H total	70.9	—
1H projected score	RICH 36.2 · WKU 34.7	—

The 1st-half model is fitted from the full-game model and past halves. ESPN has no 1st-half lines for college games, so there is no market to compare it with.

Showing 2025-26 until both teams have played this season.

ATS

2025-26 season

	Season	Cover	Neutral	Role
RICH WLWWL	16-15	52%	0-3	—
WKU WWLLL	15-15	50%	3-1	—

Venue/role: RICH neutral site; WKU neutral site. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

2025-26 season

	O-U	Over %	SU
RICH OUUOO	14-17	45%	14-17
WKU OOOUO	15-15	50%	16-14

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Tap for the score and line.

Last 10 games

2025-26

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
RICH	2-8 20%	6-4 60%	5-5 50%
WKU	6-4 60%	4-6 40%	7-3 70%

Wins-losses (pushes last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Next 3 games

With how the last meeting with each opponent went

Richmond

Date	Game	Last meeting
Nov 22	vs LIB	No recent meeting
Nov 25	vs BCU	No recent meeting
Nov 28	vs VMI	W87–54WU

Western KY

Date	Game	Last meeting
Nov 22	vs GW	No recent meeting
Nov 27	@ ILL	No recent meeting
Dec 1	vs BEL	No recent meeting

Last meeting: result, against the spread, over / under. Hover a result for its date.

ATS History · 2025-26

WwinLloss·Wats winLats lossPpush·Owent over the totalUwent under the total

Richmond

31 games played

Straight up

14-17

45% wins

Against the spread

16-15

52% covers · avg +0.2 pts vs the line

Over / Under

14-17

45% overs · avg +0.7 pts vs the total

Straight up

14-1745%

W W W W L W W W W L W L L W W L W L L L L L L W L L W L L L L

4 straight losses0 of last 4 won

Against the spread

16-1552%

W L W W L L W L W L W L L W W L W L L L W L W W L W W L W W L

2 of last 4 coveredno streak

Over / Under

14-1745%

O O U O U U O O O U U U O O O U U U U U U U O O U U O U U O O

2 straight overs2 of last 4 over

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Nov 8	vsECU	W 87-72	-5.5	W +9.5	143.5	O 159
Nov 11	vsW&M	W 90-86	-9.5	L −5.5	164.5	O 176
Nov 19	vsVMI	W 87-54	-14.5	W +18.5	152.5	U 141
Nov 22	vsGWEB	W 102-67	-19.5	W +15.5	154.5	O 169
Nov 27	vsFUR	L 72-73	-3.5	L −4.5	147.5	U 145
Nov 28	vsCLT	W 71-66	-6.5	L −1.5	141.5	U 137
Dec 3	@BEL	W 84-76	+6.5	W +14.5	156.5	O 160
Dec 6	vsODU	W 86-77	-12.5	L −3.5	153.5	O 163
Dec 13	vsSIU	W 93-84	-3.5	W +5.5	153.5	O 177
Dec 17	@ELON	L 70-73	-3.5	L −6.5	161.5	U 143
Dec 20	vsCIT	W 80-56	-18.5	W +5.5	146.5	U 136
Dec 28	vsCHSO	L 72-77	-11.5	L −16.5	159.5	U 149
Dec 31	vsGW	L 85-99	+2.5	L −11.5	162.5	O 184
Jan 4	@FOR	W 83-75	-2.5	W +5.5	142.5	O 158
Jan 7	@SBU	W 89-80	+6.5	W +15.5	153.5	O 169
Jan 11	vsJOES	L 65-67	-7.5	L −9.5	150.5	U 132
Jan 14	vsLAS	W 74-53	-8.5	W +12.5	147.5	U 127
Jan 17	@SLU	L 63-88	+14.5	L −10.5	162.5	U 151
Jan 21	vsURI	L 68-69	-3.5	L −4.5	144.5	U 137
Jan 24	@GW	L 69-85	+10.5	L −5.5	159.5	U 154
Jan 27	@VCU	L 69-77	+12.5	W +4.5	155.5	U 146
Jan 31	vsDAV	L 54-79	-1.5	L −26.5	140.5	U 133
Feb 7	@URI	L 77-82	+5.5	W +0.5	142.5	O 159
Feb 10	vsGMU	W 82-70	+3.5	W +15.5	139.5	O 152
Feb 14	vsVCU	L 67-78	+7.5	L −3.5	154.5	U 145
Feb 18	@DAV	L 63-65	+5.5	W +3.5	141.5	U 128
Feb 21	vsSBU	W 99-94	-1.5	W +3.5	147.5	O 193
Feb 28	@LUC	L 66-69	-2.5	L −5.5	146.5	U 135
Mar 3	vsDAY	L 60-65	+5.5	W +0.5	144.5	U 125
Mar 7	@DUQ	L 77-79	+4.5	W +2.5	147.5	O 156
Mar 11	vsLUC	L 67-75	-4.5	L −12.5	141.5	O 142

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

ECU

W 87-72

+9.5

W&M

W 90-86

−5.5

VMI

W 87-54

+18.5

GWEB

W 102-67

+15.5

FUR

L 72-73

−4.5

CLT

W 71-66

−1.5

BEL

W 84-76

+14.5

ODU

W 86-77

−3.5

SIU

W 93-84

+5.5

ELON

L 70-73

−6.5

CIT

W 80-56

+5.5

CHSO

L 72-77

−16.5

L 85-99

−11.5

FOR

W 83-75

+5.5

SBU

W 89-80

+15.5

JOES

L 65-67

−9.5

LAS

W 74-53

+12.5

SLU

L 63-88

−10.5

URI

L 68-69

−4.5

L 69-85

−5.5

VCU

L 69-77

+4.5

DAV

L 54-79

−26.5

URI

L 77-82

+0.5

GMU

W 82-70

+15.5

VCU

L 67-78

−3.5

DAV

L 63-65

+3.5

SBU

W 99-94

+3.5

LUC

L 66-69

−5.5

DAY

L 60-65

+0.5

DUQ

L 77-79

+2.5

LUC

L 67-75

−12.5

covered 16didn’t cover 15avg +0.2 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

ECU

W 87-72

+15.5

W&M

W 90-86

+11.5

VMI

W 87-54

−11.5

GWEB

W 102-67

+14.5

FUR

L 72-73

−2.5

CLT

W 71-66

−4.5

BEL

W 84-76

+3.5

ODU

W 86-77

+9.5

SIU

W 93-84

+23.5

ELON

L 70-73

−18.5

CIT

W 80-56

−10.5

CHSO

L 72-77

−10.5

L 85-99

+21.5

FOR

W 83-75

+15.5

SBU

W 89-80

+15.5

JOES

L 65-67

−18.5

LAS

W 74-53

−20.5

SLU

L 63-88

−11.5

URI

L 68-69

−7.5

L 69-85

−5.5

VCU

L 69-77

−9.5

DAV

L 54-79

−7.5

URI

L 77-82

+16.5

GMU

W 82-70

+12.5

VCU

L 67-78

−9.5

DAV

L 63-65

−13.5

SBU

W 99-94

+45.5

LUC

L 66-69

−11.5

DAY

L 60-65

−19.5

DUQ

L 77-79

+8.5

LUC

L 67-75

+0.5

over 14under 17avg +0.7 ptslonger = bigger margin

Western KY

30 games played

Straight up

16-14

53% wins

Against the spread

15-15

50% covers · avg −0.7 pts vs the line

Over / Under

15-15

50% overs · avg +1 pts vs the total

Straight up

16-1453%

W W W L L W W L L L W W L W W L L L L W L W W W W W W L L L

3 straight losses1 of last 4 won

Against the spread

15-1550%

L W W W W W L L W L W L L W W L L L W W L W L L W W W L L L

3 straight misses ATS1 of last 4 covered

Over / Under

15-1550%

U O O U O U O U O O O U U U O U U U U U U U O O O O O O U O

3 of last 4 overno streak

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Nov 3	vsTNTC	W 82-70	-14.5	L −2.5	153.5	U 152
Nov 10	@EKU	W 87-79	-1.5	W +6.5	162.5	O 166
Nov 16	vsTNST	W 95-82	-12.5	W +0.5	167.5	O 177
Nov 26	vsVAN	L 78-83	+18.5	W +13.5	168.5	U 161
Nov 27	vsUSF	L 91-97	+7.5	W +1.5	167.5	O 188
Nov 28	vsWICH	W 75-70	+4.5	W +9.5	155.5	U 145
Dec 6	vsEVAN	W 80-79	-11.5	L −10.5	147.5	O 159
Dec 10	@MRSH	L 61-77	+1.5	L −14.5	159.5	U 138
Dec 19	vsTLSA	L 81-82	+2.5	W +1.5	158.5	O 163
Dec 29	@JXST	L 67-78	-2.5	L −13.5	142.5	O 145
Jan 2	vsSHSU	W 102-91	-5.5	W +5.5	168.5	O 193
Jan 4	vsLT	W 66-61	-9.5	L −4.5	145.5	U 127
Jan 8	@NMSU	L 64-80	+2.5	L −13.5	154.5	U 144
Jan 10	@UTEP	W 68-56	-3.5	W +8.5	144.5	U 124
Jan 14	vsMOST	W 87-72	-6.5	W +8.5	148.5	O 159
Jan 17	vsKENN	L 65-81	-7.5	L −23.5	165.5	U 146
Jan 21	vsLIB	L 69-76	+1.5	L −5.5	148.5	U 145
Jan 24	@SHSU	L 58-73	+5.5	L −9.5	156.5	U 131
Jan 28	@KENN	L 69-72	+4.5	W +1.5	160.5	U 141
Jan 31	@MTSU	W 65-60	+6.5	W +11.5	140.5	U 125
Feb 5	vsJXST	L 66-71	-4.5	L −9.5	140.5	U 137
Feb 7	vsFIU	W 80-70	-4.5	W +5.5	159.5	U 150
Feb 14	vsMTSU	W 82-80	-3.5	L −1.5	145.5	O 162
Feb 18	@DEL	W 88-87	-4.5	L −3.5	139.5	O 175
Feb 21	@LIB	W 94-73	+7.5	W +28.5	147.5	O 167
Feb 26	vsNMSU	W 93-70	-4.5	W +18.5	151.5	O 163
Feb 28	vsUTEP	W 97-65	-9.5	W +22.5	145.5	O 162
Mar 5	@MOST	L 74-87	-1.5	L −14.5	152.5	O 161
Mar 7	@FIU	L 67-92	-1.5	L −26.5	160.5	U 159
Mar 12	vsKENN	L 87-96	-1.5	L −10.5	159.5	O 183

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

TNTC

W 82-70

−2.5

EKU

W 87-79

+6.5

TNST

W 95-82

+0.5

VAN

L 78-83

+13.5

USF

L 91-97

+1.5

WICH

W 75-70

+9.5

EVAN

W 80-79

−10.5

MRSH

L 61-77

−14.5

TLSA

L 81-82

+1.5

JXST

L 67-78

−13.5

SHSU

W 102-91

+5.5

W 66-61

−4.5

NMSU

L 64-80

−13.5

UTEP

W 68-56

+8.5

MOST

W 87-72

+8.5

KENN

L 65-81

−23.5

LIB

L 69-76

−5.5

SHSU

L 58-73

−9.5

KENN

L 69-72

+1.5

MTSU

W 65-60

+11.5

JXST

L 66-71

−9.5

FIU

W 80-70

+5.5

MTSU

W 82-80

−1.5

DEL

W 88-87

−3.5

LIB

W 94-73

+28.5

NMSU

W 93-70

+18.5

UTEP

W 97-65

+22.5

MOST

L 74-87

−14.5

FIU

L 67-92

−26.5

KENN

L 87-96

−10.5

covered 15didn’t cover 15avg −0.7 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

TNTC

W 82-70

−1.5

EKU

W 87-79

+3.5

TNST

W 95-82

+9.5

VAN

L 78-83

−7.5

USF

L 91-97

+20.5

WICH

W 75-70

−10.5

EVAN

W 80-79

+11.5

MRSH

L 61-77

−21.5

TLSA

L 81-82

+4.5

JXST

L 67-78

+2.5

SHSU

W 102-91

+24.5

W 66-61

−18.5

NMSU

L 64-80

−10.5

UTEP

W 68-56

−20.5

MOST

W 87-72

+10.5

KENN

L 65-81

−19.5

LIB

L 69-76

−3.5

SHSU

L 58-73

−25.5

KENN

L 69-72

−19.5

MTSU

W 65-60

−15.5

JXST

L 66-71

−3.5

FIU

W 80-70

−9.5

MTSU

W 82-80

+16.5

DEL

W 88-87

+35.5

LIB

W 94-73

+19.5

NMSU

W 93-70

+11.5

UTEP

W 97-65

+16.5

MOST

L 74-87

+8.5

FIU

L 67-92

−1.5

KENN

L 87-96

+23.5

over 15under 15avg +1 ptslonger = bigger margin

Line = the team’s closing spread (negative = favored). ATS number = points beyond the line; total number = combined points.

Western KY has the better starters

Position by position: Richmond 1, Western KY 2, even 2

RichmondBetterWestern KY

G D. Saran TR11.3 pts · 5 reb · 3.1 ast Score 52

WKUBig

G T. Moore19.2 pts · 5.7 reb · 1.8 ast Score 99

G A. Argabright10.8 pts · 2 reb · 2 ast Score 87

RICHBig

G N. Norgaard TR7.8 pts · 2 reb · 1.6 ast Score 11

G D. Stewart TR6.6 pts · 2.2 reb · 1.6 ast Score 44

WKUSmall

G A. Boone10.6 pts · 6.1 reb · 2.1 ast Score 61

F J. Kaiser TR9.5 pts · 4.3 reb · 1 ast Score 60

Even

G L. Hackman8.8 pts · 2.9 reb · 1.5 ast Score 64

C A. Dorries TR16.2 pts · 4.4 reb · 1.4 ast Score 62

Even

F E. Erkins-Ford TR8.6 pts · 3.6 reb · 1 ast Score 71

RichmondBetterWestern KY

RICH offense113th of 366 · -2.0

RICHSmall

WKU defense169th of 366 · -3.9

RICH defense105th of 366 · -1.0

Even

WKU offense115th of 366 · -2.4

Backcourt+0.4 · 3 players

WKUSmall

Backcourt+3.0 · 4 players

Frontcourt+1.5 · 2 players

Even

Frontcourt+0.8 · 1 player

Bench-1.0 · 5 players

RICHSmall

Bench-3.8 · 3 players

Score, worst to bestRICH betterWKU betterTR transfer · NEW no Division I numbers

Projected starters: college teams publish no depth chart, so these come from minutes played, and a freshman or a new starter can change them. The score is the share of ranked players at the position that player is ahead of. Numbers are this season's once a player has 30 minutes, 2025-26's before that. Bench is the next five by minutes. Tap a player for the full numbers.

Depth chart

Projected rotation by position, starters outlined

Richmond

Guards

D. Saran30 min · TRA. Argabright24 minD. Stewart23 min · TRC. Tanner18 minW. Harper11 minK. Mooney5 min

Forwards

J. Kaiser29 min · TRA. Ball21 min · TRJ. McCaffery10 min · TRC. CookNewD. CaldwellNew

Centers

A. Dorries33 min · TRD. HomenickNew

Western KY

Guards

T. Moore30 minN. Norgaard25 min · TRA. Boone25 minL. Hackman22 minS. Young19 min · TRK. Unseld11 min

Forwards

E. Erkins-Ford22 min · TRE. Walker16 min · TRM. KonareNewG. WeisNewJ. AdebayoNew

In order of minutes, from rosters as of today. ESPN lists players only as guards, forwards or centers, and no injury report exists for college basketball, so a player who is out may still show here.

Showing 2025-26 until both teams have played this season.

Matchup stats

2025-26 · rank among 365 teams

ChartTable

Scoring

Points per game

RICH76.5 #132

WKU77.9 #95

Points per possession

RICH1.11 #119

WKU1.09 #163

Pace (possessions)

RICH68.8 #194

WKU71.5 #52

Shooting

Effective FG%

RICH52.7 #115

WKU47.5 #327

3-point %

RICH37.1 #28

WKU33.4 #205

3-point attempt rate

RICH42.6 #126

WKU39.5 #184

Free throw rate

RICH36.9 #133

WKU41.2 #42

Possessions

Turnover rate

RICH14.3 #32

WKU14.5 #42

Offensive rebound rate

RICH25.0 #340

WKU31.8 #134

Assists per game

RICH14.0 #145

WKU12.9 #215

Defense

Points allowed

RICH74.5 #175

WKU77.0 #241

Points allowed per possession

RICH1.09 #183

WKU1.08 #155

Opponent effective FG%

RICH52.0 #216

WKU51.2 #169

Opponent 3-point %

RICH32.7 #103

WKU34.3 #205

Turnovers forced

RICH17.8 #111

WKU17.2 #134

Defensive rebound rate

RICH69.0 #200

WKU70.5 #135

Steals per game

RICH6.8 #139

WKU7.4 #90

Blocks per game

RICH2.3 #323

WKU2.3 #327

RICH		WKU
Scoring
76.5 #132	Points per game	77.9 #95
1.11 #119	Points per possession	1.09 #163
68.8 #194	Pace (possessions)	71.5 #52
Shooting
52.7 #115	Effective FG%	47.5 #327
37.1 #28	3-point %	33.4 #205
42.6 #126	3-point attempt rate	39.5 #184
36.9 #133	Free throw rate	41.2 #42
Possessions
14.3 #32	Turnover rate	14.5 #42
25.0 #340	Offensive rebound rate	31.8 #134
14.0 #145	Assists per game	12.9 #215
Defense
74.5 #175	Points allowed	77.0 #241
1.09 #183	Points allowed per possession	1.08 #155
52.0 #216	Opponent effective FG%	51.2 #169
32.7 #103	Opponent 3-point %	34.3 #205
17.8 #111	Turnovers forced	17.2 #134
69.0 #200	Defensive rebound rate	70.5 #135
6.8 #139	Steals per game	7.4 #90
2.3 #323	Blocks per game	2.3 #327

From the box scores. A longer bar is a better national rank, on every row; the better team's bar is solid. A green rank is near the top of Division I, a red one near the bottom. Pace and 3-point rate are styles, so they have no better side.

Richmond

14-17 in 2025-26 overall · 5-14 in conference · Atlantic 10 Conference

Last five, 2025-26

Lvs Loyola Chicago67–75
L@ Duquesne77–79
Lvs Dayton60–65
L@ Loyola Chicago66–69
Wvs St Bonaventure99–94

A week or more of rest.

Western KY

16-14 in 2025-26 overall · 11-10 in conference · Conference USA

Last five, 2025-26

Lvs Kennesaw St87–96
L@ FIU67–92
L@ Missouri St74–87
Wvs UTEP97–65
Wvs New Mexico St93–70

A week or more of rest.

Richmond Spiders vs Western Kentucky Hilltoppers

What could decide it: RICH has more of the edges

Market

Model vs market

1st-half model

ATS

Totals

Last 10 games

Next 3 games

ATS History · 2025-26

Richmond

Western KY

Western KY has the better starters

Depth chart

Matchup stats

Richmond

Western KY