1. NCAAB
  2. Fri, Nov 13
  3. CARK @ ARK
NCAAB · Fri, Nov 13

Central Arkansas Bears at Arkansas Razorbacks

Bud Walton Arena · at Arkansas
#240CARKC Arkansas
@
#18ARKArkansas AP #12
LineNo line yet 
Total— 
CARKThis seasonARK
0-0Record0-0
0-0ATS0-0
0-0O/U0-0

ATS = covered-didn’t-push · O/U = overs-unders

Model: projects ARK 94–66 · win probability ARK 99%
Pick this game
Your picksMy picks ›
Winner
Line
—
no line yet
Total
—
model 159.9
Model edge
—
No market line yet
Public
—
No split yet for this game
The model has not beaten the closing line: with an edge of 3 or more it went 409-367 in 2025-26. Model record

What could decide it: ARK has more of the edges

CARK 2, ARK 6 · 2025-26 numbers until both teams have played three games
ARKBig
ARK offense vs CARK defense
Offense 6th of 366 against a defense 241st, on the model’s ratings
Context
Schedule so far
CARK has played the 241st-hardest schedule, ARK the 8th. A record against a soft schedule means less
ARKBig
CARK offense vs ARK defense
Offense 231st of 366 against a defense 47th, on the model’s ratings
ARKBig
Three-pointers
CARK hits 35.5% and allows 35.2%; ARK hits 38.2% and allows 31.8%. Threes are 48.7% and 33.0% of their shots
ARKSmall
Shooting
Effective FG%: CARK 54.0 and allows 54.9; ARK 56.4 and allows 51.8
CARKSmall
Who is back
Minutes back from last season: CARK 62%, ARK 19%. Transfers in: CARK 2, ARK 2. Early in a season, turnover makes teams harder to price
CARKSmall
Turnovers
Turnover rate: CARK 15.4%, ARK 12.2%. Forced: CARK 19.1%, ARK 15.5%
ARKSmall
Home court
ARK at home. This season: ARK 0-0 at home, CARK 0-0 away
ARKSmall
Free throws
Free throw rate: CARK 31.2, ARK 35.9. Allowed: CARK 30.1, ARK 31.2
Context
Tempo
About 72 possessions: CARK plays 70.2 a game (105th fastest), ARK 73.8 (12th). Faster games mean more points
Even
Rebounding
Offensive rebound rate: CARK 28.8%, ARK 32.0%. Defensive: CARK 72.6%, ARK 69.1%
Sorted by how lopsided each matchup is, from national ranks. Reasons to look, not picks: the market already knows most of this.

Market

Open → current
Spread
Opening line not available
Total
 
Moneyline
—

Pre-game lines only (ESPN, DraftKings first). After tip-off the line shown is the closing line.

Model vs market

MarketModelModel edge
Spread—ARK -27.4—
Total—159.9—
Projected score—CARK 66.3 · ARK 93.6

1st-half model

1st-half slate ›
ModelActual
1H spreadARK -16.1—
1H total74.7—
1H projected scoreCARK 29.3 · ARK 45.4—
The 1st-half model is fitted from the full-game model and past halves. ESPN has no 1st-half lines for college games, so there is no market to compare it with.

Arkansas has the better starters

Position by position: C Arkansas 0, Arkansas 2, even 3
C ArkansasBetterArkansas
G L. Moore9.6 pts · 2.8 reb · 3.5 ast Score 28
ARKBig
G B. Richmond11.2 pts · 4.3 reb · 2 ast Score 85
G T. Robinson14.2 pts · 5.6 reb · 2 ast Score 89
Even
G J. Wilkinson TR17.4 pts · 2 reb · 1.7 ast Score 98
G C. McCormick9.1 pts · 3.4 reb · 1.3 ast Score 44
No call
G A. Brown0.1 pts · 0 reb · 0 ast Not ranked
G H. Beauchamp4.3 pts · 1.3 reb · 1 ast Score 8
ARKBig
F C. Bowser TR13.7 pts · 5.8 reb · 1.6 ast Score 91
F M. Marable3.7 pts · 4.4 reb · 1.5 ast Score 3
No call
F I. Sealy2.9 pts · 1.3 reb · 0.6 ast Not ranked
C ArkansasBetterArkansas
CARK offense231st of 366 · -7.1
ARKBig
ARK defense47th of 366 · +2.2
CARK defense241st of 366 · -6.4
ARKBig
ARK offense6th of 366 · +10.8
Backcourt-2.6 · 4 players
ARKBig
Backcourt+5.9 · 3 players
Frontcourt-3.0 · 1 player
ARKBig
Frontcourt+3.7 · 2 players
Bench-1.8 · 4 players
ARKSmall
Bench-0.0 · 1 player
Score, worst to bestCARK betterARK betterTR transfer · NEW no Division I numbers
Projected starters: college teams publish no depth chart, so these come from minutes played, and a freshman or a new starter can change them. The score is the share of ranked players at the position that player is ahead of. Numbers are this season's once a player has 30 minutes, 2025-26's before that. Bench is the next five by minutes. Tap a player for the full numbers.

Depth chart

Projected rotation by position, starters outlined
C Arkansas
Guards
L. Moore30 minT. Robinson28 minC. McCormick23 minH. Beauchamp15 minO. Dehrmann3 minJ. Shulman3 min
Forwards
M. Marable21 minT. Anderson12 min · TRS. Saadi9 min · TRA. HoernerNew
Arkansas
Guards
B. Richmond28 minJ. Wilkinson26 min · TRA. Brown2 minA. Kelley2 minJ. SmithNewD. ThompsonNew
Forwards
C. Bowser30 min · TRI. Sealy7 minP. SemedoNewM. MakerNewJ. AndrewsNewM. MuurinenNew
In order of minutes, from rosters as of today. ESPN lists players only as guards, forwards or centers, and no injury report exists for college basketball, so a player who is out may still show here.
Showing 2025-26 until both teams have played this season.

Matchup stats

2025-26 · rank among 365 teams
Scoring
Shooting
Possessions
Defense
CARKARK
Scoring
79.3 #77Points per game90.2 #2
1.13 #90Points per possession1.23 #3
70.2 #105Pace (possessions)73.8 #12
Shooting
54.0 #68Effective FG%56.4 #16
35.5 #893-point %38.2 #16
48.7 #213-point attempt rate33.0 #315
31.2 #278Free throw rate35.9 #155
Possessions
15.4 #92Turnover rate12.2 #1
28.8 #240Offensive rebound rate32.0 #121
16.0 #46Assists per game17.2 #20
Defense
76.0 #216Points allowed81.0 #333
1.08 #180Points allowed per possession1.09 #213
54.9 #328Opponent effective FG%51.8 #201
35.2 #262Opponent 3-point %31.8 #54
19.1 #45Turnovers forced15.5 #246
72.6 #48Defensive rebound rate69.1 #197
8.5 #18Steals per game7.3 #96
1.9 #351Blocks per game5.2 #12
From the box scores. A longer bar is a better national rank, on every row; the better team's bar is solid. A green rank is near the top of Division I, a red one near the bottom. Pace and 3-point rate are styles, so they have no better side.

C Arkansas

20-12 in 2025-26 overall · 17-4 in conference · United Athletic Conference

Last five, 2025-26
  • Lvs Queens University Royals93–98
  • Wvs FGCU73–63
  • Wvs Bellarmine86–73
  • Wvs Queens University Royals84–79
  • W@ Austin Peay93–88

A week or more of rest.

Arkansas

28-9 in 2025-26 overall · 16-5 in conference · Southeastern Conference

Last five, 2025-26
  • Lvs Arizona88–109
  • Wvs High Point94–88
  • Wvs Hawai'i97–78
  • Wvs Vanderbilt86–75
  • Wvs Ole Miss93–90

A week or more of rest.