Southern Miss Golden Eagles at Texas State Bobcats: Model Line and Edge

Fri, Nov 13, 8:00 PM ETStrahan Arena at the University Events Center · at Texas St

LineNo line yet

Total—

Season records: Southern Miss and Texas St
USM	This season	TXST
0-0	Record	0-0
0-0	ATS	0-0
0-0	O/U	0-0

ATS = covered-didn’t-push · O/U = overs-unders

Model: projects TXST 81–69 · win probability TXST 84%

Pick this game

Your picksMy picks ›

Winner

Line

—

no line yet

Total

—

model 150.0

Model edge

—

No market line yet

Public

—

No split yet for this game

The model has not beaten the closing line: with an edge of 3 or more it went 409-367 in 2025-26. Model record

What could decide it: TXST has more of the edges

USM 1, TXST 4 · 2025-26 numbers until both teams have played three games

TXSTBig

TXST offense vs USM defense

Offense 105th of 366 against a defense 239th, on the model’s ratings

Context

Schedule so far

USM has played the 184th-hardest schedule, TXST the 298th. A record against a soft schedule means less

TXSTSmall

USM offense vs TXST defense

Offense 203rd of 366 against a defense 112th, on the model’s ratings

TXSTSmall

Who is back

Minutes back from last season: USM 23%, TXST 69%. Transfers in: USM 3, TXST 5. Early in a season, turnover makes teams harder to price

USMSmall

Free throws

Free throw rate: USM 43.2, TXST 34.0. Allowed: USM 43.6, TXST 39.0

Context

Tempo

About 69 possessions: USM plays 70.1 a game (113th fastest), TXST 68.2 (223rd). Faster games mean more points

TXSTSmall

Home court

TXST at home. This season: TXST 0-0 at home, USM 0-0 away

Even

Rebounding

Offensive rebound rate: USM 32.5%, TXST 33.9%. Defensive: USM 71.2%, TXST 71.6%

Even

Shooting

Effective FG%: USM 49.0 and allows 51.4; TXST 50.0 and allows 52.0

Even

Turnovers

Turnover rate: USM 18.4%, TXST 18.7%. Forced: USM 17.8%, TXST 18.5%

Even

Three-pointers

USM hits 28.9% and allows 34.5%; TXST hits 32.2% and allows 35.7%. Threes are 28.7% and 24.6% of their shots

Sorted by how lopsided each matchup is, from national ranks. Reasons to look, not picks: the market already knows most of this.

Model vs market

	Market	Model	Model edge
Spread	—	TXST -11.6	—
Total	—	150.0	—
Projected score	—	USM 69.2 · TXST 80.8

1st-half model

1st-half slate ›

	Model	Actual
1H spread	TXST -6.8	—
1H total	70.1	—
1H projected score	USM 31.7 · TXST 38.5	—

The 1st-half model is fitted from the full-game model and past halves. ESPN has no 1st-half lines for college games, so there is no market to compare it with.

Showing 2025-26 until both teams have played this season.

ATS

2025-26 season

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
USM WWWWL	17-16	52%	7-8	—
TXST LWLWL	14-16	47%	10-5	—

Venue/role: USM away; TXST home. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

2025-26 season

	O-U	Over %	SU
USM UOOOO	20-13	61%	17-16
TXST OOUUO	16-14	53%	17-13

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Tap for the score and line.

Last 10 games

2025-26

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
USM	7-3 70%	8-2 80%	7-3 70%
TXST	8-2 80%	7-3 70%	4-6 40%

Wins-losses (pushes last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Next 3 games

With how the last meeting with each opponent went

Southern Miss

Date	Game	Last meeting
Nov 17	vs UTA	No recent meeting
Nov 19	@ GRAM	W68–60LU
Nov 21	vs NICH	No recent meeting

Texas St

Date	Game	Last meeting
Nov 15	@ UTSA	W80–69WO
Nov 18	vs UIW	W75–57WO
Nov 22	vs MCN	L48–59LU

Last meeting: result, against the spread, over / under. Hover a result for its date.

Recent meetings

Last 5 of 10 since 2021-22

USM 6–4 TXSTUSM leads · 10 games since 2021-22 · USM 7-3 ATS

Date	Result	Line	Covered
Mar 6, 2025-26	USM 81 vs TXST 77	TXST -1.5	USM W
Jan 17, 2025-26	USM 67 @ TXST 74	TXST -2.5	TXST W
Jan 8, 2025-26	TXST 70 @ USM 80	USM -2.5	USM W
Jan 18, 2024-25	USM 82 @ TXST 85	TXST -9.5	USM W
Jan 11, 2024-25	TXST 88 @ USM 92	USM +3.5	USM W

ATS History · 2025-26

WwinLloss·Wats winLats lossPpush·Owent over the totalUwent under the total

Southern Miss

33 games played

Straight up

17-16

52% wins

Against the spread

17-16

52% covers · avg +1.6 pts vs the line

Over / Under

20-13

61% overs · avg +3.5 pts vs the total

Straight up

17-1652%

L L L W W W L W L W L L W W W W L L L L L W L W L W W L W W W W L

3 of last 4 wonno streak

Against the spread

17-1652%

L W L L W W L L W L L L W W W L L L L L L W W W L W W W W W W W L

3 of last 4 coveredno streak

Over / Under

20-1361%

O O U O U O O U U U O U O O O U O O U O U U O U O U O O U O O O O

4 straight overs4 of last 4 over

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Nov 3	@BUF	L 79-85	+3.5	L −2.5	153.5	O 164
Nov 9	@SC	L 79-83	+17.5	W +13.5	147.5	O 162
Nov 13	@GRAM	L 70-75	+2.5	L −2.5	148.5	U 145
Nov 22	vsUNF	W 92-83	-9.5	L −0.5	154.5	O 175
Nov 23	vsUTM	W 70-60	+1.5	W +11.5	146.5	U 130
Dec 3	@RAD	W 82-75	+3.5	W +10.5	152.5	O 157
Dec 6	@MIA	L 64-88	+19.5	L −4.5	145.5	O 152
Dec 8	vsGRAM	W 68-60	-8.5	L −0.5	142.5	U 128
Dec 13	vsMISS	L 67-71	+12.5	W +8.5	138.5	U 138
Dec 18	vsUL	W 62-54	-11.5	L −3.5	132.5	U 116
Dec 20	vsARST	L 86-93	+1.5	L −5.5	155.5	O 179
Dec 29	@LSU	L 62-90	+21.5	L −6.5	154.5	U 152
Jan 1	@ULM	W 87-73	-9.5	W +4.5	152.5	O 160
Jan 3	@UL	W 74-67	-3.5	W +3.5	129.5	O 141
Jan 8	vsTXST	W 80-70	-2.5	W +7.5	144.5	O 150
Jan 10	vsULM	W 70-60	-14.5	L −4.5	155.5	U 130
Jan 14	@TROY	L 65-91	+8.5	L −17.5	145.5	O 156
Jan 17	@TXST	L 67-74	+2.5	L −4.5	140.5	O 141
Jan 22	@GAST	L 62-69	+1.5	L −5.5	144.5	U 131
Jan 24	@CCU	L 67-85	+2.5	L −15.5	141.5	O 152
Jan 29	vsAPP	L 63-70	+1.5	L −5.5	134.5	U 133
Jan 31	vsJMU	W 73-65	-1.5	W +6.5	143.5	U 138
Feb 4	@MRSH	L 77-81	+10.5	W +6.5	148.5	O 158
Feb 7	vsKENT	W 66-65	+4.5	W +5.5	150.5	U 131
Feb 12	vsUSA	L 78-84	-1.5	L −7.5	135.5	O 162
Feb 14	vsTROY	W 69-65	+5.5	W +9.5	144.5	U 134
Feb 21	vsODU	W 86-81	-4.5	W +0.5	147.5	O 167
Feb 24	@ARST	L 84-89	+9.5	W +4.5	158.5	O 173
Feb 27	@USA	W 68-55	+4.5	W +17.5	141.5	U 123
Mar 5	vsJMU	W 86-80	+2.5	W +8.5	143.5	O 166
Mar 6	vsTXST	W 81-77	+1.5	W +5.5	140.5	O 158
Mar 7	vsAPP	W 86-73	+4.5	W +17.5	137.5	O 159
Mar 8	vsTROY	L 70-78	+5.5	L −2.5	142.5	O 148

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

BUF

L 79-85

−2.5

L 79-83

+13.5

GRAM

L 70-75

−2.5

UNF

W 92-83

−0.5

UTM

W 70-60

+11.5

RAD

W 82-75

+10.5

MIA

L 64-88

−4.5

GRAM

W 68-60

−0.5

MISS

L 67-71

+8.5

W 62-54

−3.5

ARST

L 86-93

−5.5

LSU

L 62-90

−6.5

ULM

W 87-73

+4.5

W 74-67

+3.5

TXST

W 80-70

+7.5

ULM

W 70-60

−4.5

TROY

L 65-91

−17.5

TXST

L 67-74

−4.5

GAST

L 62-69

−5.5

CCU

L 67-85

−15.5

APP

L 63-70

−5.5

JMU

W 73-65

+6.5

MRSH

L 77-81

+6.5

KENT

W 66-65

+5.5

USA

L 78-84

−7.5

TROY

W 69-65

+9.5

ODU

W 86-81

+0.5

ARST

L 84-89

+4.5

USA

W 68-55

+17.5

JMU

W 86-80

+8.5

TXST

W 81-77

+5.5

APP

W 86-73

+17.5

TROY

L 70-78

−2.5

covered 17didn’t cover 16avg +1.6 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

BUF

L 79-85

+10.5

L 79-83

+14.5

GRAM

L 70-75

−3.5

UNF

W 92-83

+20.5

UTM

W 70-60

−16.5

RAD

W 82-75

+4.5

MIA

L 64-88

+6.5

GRAM

W 68-60

−14.5

MISS

L 67-71

−0.5

W 62-54

−16.5

ARST

L 86-93

+23.5

LSU

L 62-90

−2.5

ULM

W 87-73

+7.5

W 74-67

+11.5

TXST

W 80-70

+5.5

ULM

W 70-60

−25.5

TROY

L 65-91

+10.5

TXST

L 67-74

+0.5

GAST

L 62-69

−13.5

CCU

L 67-85

+10.5

APP

L 63-70

−1.5

JMU

W 73-65

−5.5

MRSH

L 77-81

+9.5

KENT

W 66-65

−19.5

USA

L 78-84

+26.5

TROY

W 69-65

−10.5

ODU

W 86-81

+19.5

ARST

L 84-89

+14.5

USA

W 68-55

−18.5

JMU

W 86-80

+22.5

TXST

W 81-77

+17.5

APP

W 86-73

+21.5

TROY

L 70-78

+5.5

over 20under 13avg +3.5 ptslonger = bigger margin

Texas St

30 games played

Straight up

17-13

57% wins

Against the spread

14-16

47% covers · avg −0.4 pts vs the line

Over / Under

16-14

53% overs · avg +2 pts vs the total

Straight up

17-1357%

L L W W W W L L L W L W L W L L W W L L W W W W W W W L W L

2 of last 4 wonno streak

Against the spread

14-1647%

L W W W W W L L L L L L L L L W L W L L W W W W W L W L W L

2 of last 4 coveredno streak

Over / Under

16-1453%

U O O U U U U O O O O U O O O O U O O U U O U U U O O U U O

2 of last 4 overno streak

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Nov 3	@BGSU	L 48-83	+5.5	L −29.5	146.5	U 131
Nov 8	@TULN	L 71-79	+12.5	W +4.5	146.5	O 150
Nov 12	vsUTSA	W 80-69	-2.5	W +8.5	147.5	O 149
Nov 15	vsTXSO	W 77-67	-4.5	W +5.5	144.5	U 144
Nov 18	vsACU	W 63-49	-1.5	W +12.5	138.5	U 112
Nov 21	vsLR	W 65-56	-5.5	W +3.5	131.5	U 121
Nov 28	vsSEA	L 52-66	+7.5	L −6.5	136.5	U 118
Nov 29	vsLEH	L 74-78	-6.5	L −10.5	135.5	O 152
Dec 3	@RICE	L 72-77	+3.5	L −1.5	133.5	O 149
Dec 10	vsSOU	W 86-83	-3.5	L −0.5	142.5	O 169
Dec 17	vsARST	L 70-89	+4.5	L −14.5	151.5	O 159
Dec 20	vsUSA	W 67-65	-3.5	L −1.5	136.5	U 132
Dec 31	@TROY	L 80-100	+8.5	L −11.5	145.5	O 180
Jan 3	@ULM	W 84-79	-10.5	L −5.5	150.5	O 163
Jan 8	@USM	L 70-80	+2.5	L −7.5	144.5	O 150
Jan 10	@ARST	L 82-83	+11.5	W +10.5	156.5	O 165
Jan 14	vsUL	W 59-54	-8.5	L −3.5	133.5	U 113
Jan 17	vsUSM	W 74-67	-2.5	W +4.5	140.5	O 141
Jan 22	@CCU	L 70-72	+1.5	L −0.5	140.5	O 142
Jan 24	@JMU	L 57-82	+5.5	L −19.5	143.5	U 139
Jan 28	vsMRSH	W 72-68	+3.5	W +7.5	147.5	U 140
Jan 31	vsODU	W 81-64	-2.5	W +14.5	143.5	O 145
Feb 4	@GASO	W 77-71	+4.5	W +10.5	151.5	U 148
Feb 7	vsWMU	W 77-61	-6.5	W +9.5	146.5	U 138
Feb 11	vsTROY	W 74-62	+5.5	W +17.5	140.5	U 136
Feb 14	vsULM	W 95-84	-14.5	L −3.5	149.5	O 179
Feb 19	@USA	W 90-82	+3.5	W +11.5	137.5	O 172
Feb 21	@UL	L 54-67	-3.5	L −16.5	134.5	U 121
Feb 27	vsAPP	W 60-57	+1.5	W +4.5	135.5	U 117
Mar 6	vsUSM	L 77-81	-1.5	L −5.5	140.5	O 158

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

BGSU

L 48-83

−29.5

TULN

L 71-79

+4.5

UTSA

W 80-69

+8.5

TXSO

W 77-67

+5.5

ACU

W 63-49

+12.5

W 65-56

+3.5

SEA

L 52-66

−6.5

LEH

L 74-78

−10.5

RICE

L 72-77

−1.5

SOU

W 86-83

−0.5

ARST

L 70-89

−14.5

USA

W 67-65

−1.5

TROY

L 80-100

−11.5

ULM

W 84-79

−5.5

USM

L 70-80

−7.5

ARST

L 82-83

+10.5

W 59-54

−3.5

USM

W 74-67

+4.5

CCU

L 70-72

−0.5

JMU

L 57-82

−19.5

MRSH

W 72-68

+7.5

ODU

W 81-64

+14.5

GASO

W 77-71

+10.5

WMU

W 77-61

+9.5

TROY

W 74-62

+17.5

ULM

W 95-84

−3.5

USA

W 90-82

+11.5

L 54-67

−16.5

APP

W 60-57

+4.5

USM

L 77-81

−5.5

covered 14didn’t cover 16avg −0.4 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

BGSU

L 48-83

−15.5

TULN

L 71-79

+3.5

UTSA

W 80-69

+1.5

TXSO

W 77-67

−0.5

ACU

W 63-49

−26.5

W 65-56

−10.5

SEA

L 52-66

−18.5

LEH

L 74-78

+16.5

RICE

L 72-77

+15.5

SOU

W 86-83

+26.5

ARST

L 70-89

+7.5

USA

W 67-65

−4.5

TROY

L 80-100

+34.5

ULM

W 84-79

+12.5

USM

L 70-80

+5.5

ARST

L 82-83

+8.5

W 59-54

−20.5

USM

W 74-67

+0.5

CCU

L 70-72

+1.5

JMU

L 57-82

−4.5

MRSH

W 72-68

−7.5

ODU

W 81-64

+1.5

GASO

W 77-71

−3.5

WMU

W 77-61

−8.5

TROY

W 74-62

−4.5

ULM

W 95-84

+29.5

USA

W 90-82

+34.5

L 54-67

−13.5

APP

W 60-57

−18.5

USM

L 77-81

+17.5

over 16under 14avg +2 ptslonger = bigger margin

Line = the team’s closing spread (negative = favored). ATS number = points beyond the line; total number = combined points.

Texas St has the better starters

Position by position: Southern Miss 0, Texas St 3, even 2

Southern MissBetterTexas St

G J. Gaines-Wyatt TR11.8 pts · 1.5 reb · 2.9 ast Score 59

Even

G M. Drone14 pts · 3.3 reb · 2.9 ast Score 56

G I. Taveras15.4 pts · 6.6 reb · 2.2 ast Score 90

Even

G Q. House TR15.1 pts · 3.4 reb · 3.3 ast Score 84

G B. Carruth2.6 pts · 1.4 reb · 0.3 ast Score 6

TXSTBig

G K. Younger TR15.1 pts · 4.3 reb · 1.1 ast Score 76

F C. Wallace TR12.1 pts · 6.8 reb · 1.7 ast Score 53

TXSTBig

F D. Hall15.7 pts · 7.8 reb · 2.3 ast Score 94

F M. Overstreet TR2.4 pts · 2.8 reb · 0.3 ast Score 39

TXSTBig

F P. Djobet TR17.5 pts · 6.6 reb · 2 ast Score 89

Southern MissBetterTexas St

USM offense203rd of 366 · -6.3

TXSTSmall

TXST defense112th of 366 · -1.4

USM defense239th of 366 · -6.3

TXSTBig

TXST offense105th of 366 · -1.4

Backcourt+0.4 · 3 players

TXSTSmall

Backcourt+2.5 · 3 players

Frontcourt-0.5 · 2 players

TXSTBig

Frontcourt+7.5 · 2 players

Bench-0.9 · 1 player

Even

Bench-0.3 · 5 players

Score, worst to bestUSM betterTXST betterTR transfer · NEW no Division I numbers

Projected starters: college teams publish no depth chart, so these come from minutes played, and a freshman or a new starter can change them. The score is the share of ranked players at the position that player is ahead of. Numbers are this season's once a player has 30 minutes, 2025-26's before that. Bench is the next five by minutes. Tap a player for the full numbers.

Depth chart

Projected rotation by position, starters outlined

Southern Miss

Guards

J. Gaines-Wyatt27 min · TRI. Taveras27 minB. Carruth12 minB. WestonNewA. IgiedeNewC. CereseNew

Forwards

C. Wallace29 min · TRM. Overstreet10 min · TRM. MontanoNew

Centers

F. Diagne6 minM. BlankNew

Texas St

Guards

M. Drone31 minQ. House31 min · TRK. Younger29 min · TRK. Gumbs28 minD. Pernell22 minC. Steger11 min · TR

Forwards

D. Hall30 minP. Djobet30 min · TRR. Jessamy27 min · TRK. GrandisonNewD. AbisogunNewK. SandersNew

Centers

R. Fields16 min

In order of minutes, from rosters as of today. ESPN lists players only as guards, forwards or centers, and no injury report exists for college basketball, so a player who is out may still show here.

Showing 2025-26 until both teams have played this season.

Matchup stats

2025-26 · rank among 365 teams

ChartTable

Scoring

Points per game

USM73.9 #197

TXST71.9 #247

Points per possession

USM1.05 #242

TXST1.06 #230

Pace (possessions)

USM70.1 #113

TXST68.2 #223

Shooting

Effective FG%

USM49.0 #289

TXST50.0 #238

3-point %

USM28.9 #355

TXST32.2 #271

3-point attempt rate

USM28.7 #358

TXST24.6 #364

Free throw rate

USM43.2 #18

TXST34.0 #211

Possessions

Turnover rate

USM18.4 #290

TXST18.7 #309

Offensive rebound rate

USM32.5 #103

TXST33.9 #68

Assists per game

USM11.2 #330

TXST12.7 #239

Defense

Points allowed

USM74.8 #183

TXST72.5 #117

Points allowed per possession

USM1.07 #127

TXST1.06 #106

Opponent effective FG%

USM51.4 #177

TXST52.0 #210

Opponent 3-point %

USM34.5 #217

TXST35.7 #293

Turnovers forced

USM17.8 #109

TXST18.5 #75

Defensive rebound rate

USM71.2 #97

TXST71.6 #81

Steals per game

USM7.3 #98

TXST7.9 #41

Blocks per game

USM3.6 #127

TXST3.6 #120

USM		TXST
Scoring
73.9 #197	Points per game	71.9 #247
1.05 #242	Points per possession	1.06 #230
70.1 #113	Pace (possessions)	68.2 #223
Shooting
49.0 #289	Effective FG%	50.0 #238
28.9 #355	3-point %	32.2 #271
28.7 #358	3-point attempt rate	24.6 #364
43.2 #18	Free throw rate	34.0 #211
Possessions
18.4 #290	Turnover rate	18.7 #309
32.5 #103	Offensive rebound rate	33.9 #68
11.2 #330	Assists per game	12.7 #239
Defense
74.8 #183	Points allowed	72.5 #117
1.07 #127	Points allowed per possession	1.06 #106
51.4 #177	Opponent effective FG%	52.0 #210
34.5 #217	Opponent 3-point %	35.7 #293
17.8 #109	Turnovers forced	18.5 #75
71.2 #97	Defensive rebound rate	71.6 #81
7.3 #98	Steals per game	7.9 #41
3.6 #127	Blocks per game	3.6 #120

From the box scores. A longer bar is a better national rank, on every row; the better team's bar is solid. A green rank is near the top of Division I, a red one near the bottom. Pace and 3-point rate are styles, so they have no better side.

Southern Miss

17-16 in 2025-26 overall · 12-10 in conference · Sun Belt Conference

Last five, 2025-26

Lvs Troy70–78
Wvs App State86–73
Wvs Texas St81–77
Wvs James Madison86–80
W@ South Alabama68–55

A week or more of rest.

Texas St

17-13 in 2025-26 overall · 11-8 in conference · Pac-12 Conference

Last five, 2025-26

Lvs Southern Miss77–81
Wvs App State60–57
L@ Louisiana54–67
W@ South Alabama90–82
Wvs UL Monroe95–84

A week or more of rest.

Southern Miss Golden Eagles at Texas State Bobcats

What could decide it: TXST has more of the edges

Market

Model vs market

1st-half model

ATS

Totals

Last 10 games

Next 3 games

Recent meetings

ATS History · 2025-26

Southern Miss

Texas St

Texas St has the better starters

Depth chart

Matchup stats

Southern Miss

Texas St