1. NCAAB
  2. Wed, Nov 18
  3. UIW @ TXST
NCAAB · Wed, Nov 18

Incarnate Word Cardinals at Texas State Bobcats

Strahan Arena at the University Events Center · at Texas St
#289UIWIncarnate Word
@
#103TXSTTexas St
LineNo line yet 
Total— 
UIWThis seasonTXST
0-0Record0-0
0-0ATS0-0
0-0O/U0-0

ATS = covered-didn’t-push · O/U = overs-unders

Model: projects TXST 82–66 · win probability TXST 91%
Pick this game
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Winner
Line
—
no line yet
Total
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model 147.9
Model edge
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No market line yet
Public
—
No split yet for this game
The model has not beaten the closing line: with an edge of 3 or more it went 409-367 in 2025-26. Model record

What could decide it: TXST has more of the edges

UIW 1, TXST 6 · 2025-26 numbers until both teams have played three games
TXSTBig
UIW offense vs TXST defense
Offense 291st of 366 against a defense 112th, on the model’s ratings
TXSTBig
TXST offense vs UIW defense
Offense 105th of 366 against a defense 280th, on the model’s ratings
UIWBig
Three-pointers
UIW hits 36.1% and allows 34.4%; TXST hits 32.2% and allows 35.7%. Threes are 39.1% and 24.6% of their shots
TXSTBig
Rebounding
Offensive rebound rate: UIW 32.1%, TXST 33.9%. Defensive: UIW 68.0%, TXST 71.6%
TXSTSmall
Who is back
Minutes back from last season: UIW 17%, TXST 69%. Transfers in: UIW 5, TXST 5. Early in a season, turnover makes teams harder to price
Context
Tempo
About 67 possessions: UIW plays 65.4 a game (335th fastest), TXST 68.2 (223rd). Faster games mean more points
TXSTSmall
Home court
TXST at home. This season: TXST 0-0 at home, UIW 0-0 away
TXSTSmall
Shooting
Effective FG%: UIW 50.2 and allows 54.5; TXST 50.0 and allows 52.0
Even
Turnovers
Turnover rate: UIW 17.1%, TXST 18.7%. Forced: UIW 15.8%, TXST 18.5%
Even
Free throws
Free throw rate: UIW 34.0, TXST 34.0. Allowed: UIW 41.6, TXST 39.0
Context
Schedule so far
UIW has played the 285th-hardest schedule, TXST the 298th. A record against a soft schedule means less
Sorted by how lopsided each matchup is, from national ranks. Reasons to look, not picks: the market already knows most of this.

Market

Open → current
Spread
Opening line not available
Total
 
Moneyline
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Pre-game lines only (ESPN, DraftKings first). After tip-off the line shown is the closing line.

Model vs market

MarketModelModel edge
Spread—TXST -15.5—
Total—147.9—
Projected score—UIW 66.2 · TXST 81.7

1st-half model

1st-half slate ›
ModelActual
1H spreadTXST -9.1—
1H total69.2—
1H projected scoreUIW 30 · TXST 39.1—
The 1st-half model is fitted from the full-game model and past halves. ESPN has no 1st-half lines for college games, so there is no market to compare it with.

Texas St has the better starters

Position by position: Incarnate Word 0, Texas St 3, even 2
Incarnate WordBetterTexas St
G I. Habib14.4 pts · 3.5 reb · 2.7 ast Score 36
TXSTSmall
G M. Drone14 pts · 3.3 reb · 2.9 ast Score 56
G M. Conner TR7.8 pts · 3.4 reb · 6.2 ast Score 19
TXSTBig
G Q. House TR15.1 pts · 3.4 reb · 3.3 ast Score 84
G B. McCreesh TR7.4 pts · 3.1 reb · 1.6 ast Score 40
TXSTBig
G K. Younger TR15.1 pts · 4.3 reb · 1.1 ast Score 76
F D. Goodwin TR4.3 pts · 2.3 reb · 0.6 ast Not ranked
No call
F D. Hall15.7 pts · 7.8 reb · 2.3 ast Score 94
F G. Erheriene TR0.8 pts · 0.7 reb · 0 ast Not ranked
No call
F P. Djobet TR17.5 pts · 6.6 reb · 2 ast Score 89
Incarnate WordBetterTexas St
UIW offense291st of 366 · -9.0
TXSTBig
TXST defense112th of 366 · -1.4
UIW defense280th of 366 · -7.0
TXSTBig
TXST offense105th of 366 · -1.4
Backcourt-5.7 · 3 players
TXSTBig
Backcourt+2.5 · 3 players
Frontcourt-1.2 · 2 players
TXSTBig
Frontcourt+7.5 · 2 players
Bench-0.1 · 2 players
Even
Bench-0.3 · 5 players
Score, worst to bestUIW betterTXST betterTR transfer · NEW no Division I numbers
Projected starters: college teams publish no depth chart, so these come from minutes played, and a freshman or a new starter can change them. The score is the share of ranked players at the position that player is ahead of. Numbers are this season's once a player has 30 minutes, 2025-26's before that. Bench is the next five by minutes. Tap a player for the full numbers.

Depth chart

Projected rotation by position, starters outlined
Incarnate Word
Guards
I. Habib33 minM. Conner30 min · TRB. McCreesh28 min · TRD. Barbee2 minJ. ThomasNewD. CasonNew
Forwards
D. Goodwin14 min · TRG. Erheriene5 min · TRK. Spencer2 min · TRD. EmetuNewK. IoaneNewT. CollinsNew
Centers
C. PareNew
Texas St
Guards
M. Drone31 minQ. House31 min · TRK. Younger29 min · TRK. Gumbs28 minD. Pernell22 minC. Steger11 min · TR
Forwards
D. Hall30 minP. Djobet30 min · TRR. Jessamy27 min · TRK. GrandisonNewD. AbisogunNewK. SandersNew
Centers
R. Fields16 min
In order of minutes, from rosters as of today. ESPN lists players only as guards, forwards or centers, and no injury report exists for college basketball, so a player who is out may still show here.
Showing 2025-26 until both teams have played this season.

Matchup stats

2025-26 · rank among 365 teams
Scoring
Shooting
Possessions
Defense
UIWTXST
Scoring
70.4 #275Points per game71.9 #247
1.07 #206Points per possession1.06 #230
65.4 #335Pace (possessions)68.2 #223
Shooting
50.2 #228Effective FG%50.0 #238
36.1 #543-point %32.2 #271
39.1 #1903-point attempt rate24.6 #364
34.0 #210Free throw rate34.0 #211
Possessions
17.1 #206Turnover rate18.7 #309
32.1 #120Offensive rebound rate33.9 #68
10.8 #342Assists per game12.7 #239
Defense
75.0 #189Points allowed72.5 #117
1.15 #331Points allowed per possession1.06 #106
54.5 #314Opponent effective FG%52.0 #210
34.4 #214Opponent 3-point %35.7 #293
15.8 #233Turnovers forced18.5 #75
68.0 #260Defensive rebound rate71.6 #81
5.1 #329Steals per game7.9 #41
2.4 #310Blocks per game3.6 #120
From the box scores. A longer bar is a better national rank, on every row; the better team's bar is solid. A green rank is near the top of Division I, a red one near the bottom. Pace and 3-point rate are styles, so they have no better side.

Incarnate Word

9-19 in 2025-26 overall · 7-15 in conference · Southland Conference

Last five, 2025-26
  • Lvs SF Austin68–76
  • Wvs Lamar72–60
  • L@ N'Western St49–54
  • W@ East Texas A&M82–73
  • Lvs LSU N Orleans64–78

A week or more of rest.

Texas St

17-13 in 2025-26 overall · 11-8 in conference · Pac-12 Conference

Last five, 2025-26
  • Lvs Southern Miss77–81
  • Wvs App State60–57
  • L@ Louisiana54–67
  • W@ South Alabama90–82
  • Wvs UL Monroe95–84

A week or more of rest.