Northern Illinois Huskies at Marquette Golden Eagles: Model Line and Edge

Wed, Nov 18, 7:30 PM ETFiserv Forum · at Marquette

LineNo line yet

Total—

Season records: N Illinois and Marquette
NIU	This season	MARQ
1-0	Record	0-0
0-1	ATS	0-0
1-0	O/U	0-0

ATS = covered-didn’t-push · O/U = overs-unders

Model: projects MARQ 91–61 · win probability MARQ 100%

Pick this game

Your picksMy picks ›

Winner

Line

—

no line yet

Total

—

model 151.8

Model edge

—

No market line yet

Public

—

No split yet for this game

The model has not beaten the closing line: with an edge of 3 or more it went 409-367 in 2025-26. Model record

What could decide it: MARQ has more of the edges

NIU 1, MARQ 7 · 2025-26 numbers until both teams have played three games

MARQBig

NIU offense vs MARQ defense

Offense 327th of 366 against a defense 36th, on the model’s ratings

MARQBig

MARQ offense vs NIU defense

Offense 46th of 366 against a defense 327th, on the model’s ratings

MARQBig

Turnovers

Turnover rate: NIU 21.7%, MARQ 16.1%. Forced: NIU 16.3%, MARQ 19.3%

MARQBig

Shooting

Effective FG%: NIU 47.6 and allows 55.6; MARQ 50.5 and allows 50.6

Context

Schedule so far

NIU has played the 167th-hardest schedule, MARQ the 37th. A record against a soft schedule means less

MARQBig

Three-pointers

NIU hits 30.9% and allows 36.3%; MARQ hits 31.7% and allows 32.7%. Threes are 45.0% and 42.2% of their shots

NIUSmall

Rebounding

Offensive rebound rate: NIU 30.3%, MARQ 29.7%. Defensive: NIU 70.0%, MARQ 65.3%

MARQSmall

Who is back

Minutes back from last season: NIU 30%, MARQ 64%. Transfers in: NIU 6, MARQ 3. Early in a season, turnover makes teams harder to price

MARQSmall

Home court

MARQ at home. This season: MARQ 0-0 at home, NIU 0-0 away

Context

Tempo

About 70 possessions: NIU plays 69.0 a game (181st fastest), MARQ 70.9 (79th). Faster games mean more points

Even

Free throws

Free throw rate: NIU 38.3, MARQ 32.8. Allowed: NIU 38.3, MARQ 32.0

Sorted by how lopsided each matchup is, from national ranks. Reasons to look, not picks: the market already knows most of this.

Model vs market

	Market	Model	Model edge
Spread	—	MARQ -29.7	—
Total	—	151.8	—
Projected score	—	NIU 61.1 · MARQ 90.7

1st-half model

1st-half slate ›

	Model	Actual
1H spread	MARQ -17.5	—
1H total	71.0	—
1H projected score	NIU 26.7 · MARQ 44.2	—

The 1st-half model is fitted from the full-game model and past halves. ESPN has no 1st-half lines for college games, so there is no market to compare it with.

Showing 2025-26 until both teams have played this season.

ATS

2025-26 season

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
NIU LWLLL	13-15	46%	10-7	—
MARQ WLWWL	13-19	41%	7-10	—

Venue/role: NIU away; MARQ home. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

2025-26 season

	O-U	Over %	SU
NIU UUUOU	8-20	29%	7-21
MARQ UUUUO	15-17	47%	12-20

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Tap for the score and line.

Last 10 games

2025-26

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
NIU	2-8 20%	3-7 30%	2-8 20%
MARQ	4-6 40%	7-3 70%	3-7 30%

Wins-losses (pushes last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Next 3 games

With how the last meeting with each opponent went

N Illinois

Date	Game	Last meeting
Nov 21	@ BGSU	L52–68LU
Nov 25	@ SIUE	No recent meeting
Nov 28	@ EIU	L59–72LU

Marquette

Date	Game	Last meeting
Nov 22	vs CHST	W82–68LO
Nov 25	vs UVA	No recent meeting
Nov 27	vs TA&M	No recent meeting

Last meeting: result, against the spread, over / under. Hover a result for its date.

Recent meetings

Since 2021-22

NIU 0–2 MARQMARQ leads · 2 games since 2021-22 · MARQ has won the last 2 meetings · NIU 2-0 ATS

Date	Result	Line	Covered
Nov 6, 2023-24	NIU 70 @ MARQ 92	MARQ -25.5	NIU W
Nov 27, 2021-22	NIU 66 @ MARQ 80	MARQ -21	NIU W

ATS History · 2025-26

WwinLloss·Wats winLats lossPpush·Owent over the totalUwent under the total

N Illinois

28 games played

Straight up

7-21

25% wins

Against the spread

13-15

46% covers · avg −3.1 pts vs the line

Over / Under

8-20

29% overs · avg −4.8 pts vs the total

Straight up

7-2125%

W L L L W L L L L W L L L L W L L W L W L L W L L L L L

5 straight losses0 of last 4 won

Against the spread

13-1546%

W W L W W L L L W L L W L L W W W W L W L L W L W L L L

3 straight misses ATS1 of last 4 covered

Over / Under

8-2029%

O O U U U U O U O U U U U U U O U O U O U U U U U U O U

1 of last 4 overno streak

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Nov 3	vsULM	W 102-82	-7.5	W +12.5	147.5	O 184
Nov 7	@WIS	L 72-97	+28.5	W +3.5	157.5	O 169
Nov 10	@GCU	L 59-88	+22.5	L −6.5	163.5	U 147
Nov 18	@UNI	L 57-70	+19.5	W +6.5	146.5	U 127
Nov 21	@LUC	W 76-59	+13.5	W +30.5	148.5	U 135
Nov 25	@APSU	L 59-77	+6.5	L −11.5	147.5	U 136
Dec 2	vsLIN	L 64-99	-3.5	L −38.5	147.5	O 163
Dec 6	@BRAD	L 55-84	+18.5	L −10.5	146.5	U 139
Dec 13	@ELON	L 79-85	+11.5	W +5.5	156.5	O 164
Dec 20	vsCMU	W 74-73	-2.5	L −1.5	149.5	U 147
Dec 31	vsBUF	L 67-81	+6.5	L −7.5	152.5	U 148
Jan 3	@KENT	L 73-77	+16.5	W +12.5	157.5	U 150
Jan 6	vsTOL	L 61-75	+7.5	L −6.5	161.5	U 136
Jan 13	@EMU	L 59-77	+7.5	L −10.5	141.5	U 136
Jan 17	vsMASS	W 70-68	+8.5	W +10.5	157.5	U 138
Jan 20	@OHIO	L 77-80	+11.5	W +8.5	154.5	O 157
Jan 24	@BALL	L 53-58	+5.5	W +0.5	141.5	U 111
Jan 27	vsWMU	W 85-65	-1.5	W +18.5	146.5	O 150
Jan 31	@M-OH	L 61-85	+16.5	L −7.5	158.5	U 146
Feb 7	@GAST	W 75-74	+4.5	W +5.5	143.5	O 149
Feb 11	vsBGSU	L 52-68	+7.5	L −8.5	144.5	U 120
Feb 14	@CMU	L 46-88	+4.5	L −37.5	146.5	U 134
Feb 17	@BUF	W 72-70	+9.5	W +11.5	145.5	U 142
Feb 21	vsOHIO	L 66-74	+6.5	L −1.5	148.5	U 140
Feb 24	@TOL	L 69-79	+12.5	W +2.5	150.5	U 148
Feb 28	vsBALL	L 43-79	-1.5	L −37.5	133.5	U 122
Mar 3	vsKENT	L 76-102	+10.5	L −15.5	148.5	O 178
Mar 6	@AKR	L 55-94	+23.5	L −15.5	155.5	U 149

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

ULM

W 102-82

+12.5

WIS

L 72-97

+3.5

GCU

L 59-88

−6.5

UNI

L 57-70

+6.5

LUC

W 76-59

+30.5

APSU

L 59-77

−11.5

LIN

L 64-99

−38.5

BRAD

L 55-84

−10.5

ELON

L 79-85

+5.5

CMU

W 74-73

−1.5

BUF

L 67-81

−7.5

KENT

L 73-77

+12.5

TOL

L 61-75

−6.5

EMU

L 59-77

−10.5

MASS

W 70-68

+10.5

OHIO

L 77-80

+8.5

BALL

L 53-58

+0.5

WMU

W 85-65

+18.5

M-OH

L 61-85

−7.5

GAST

W 75-74

+5.5

BGSU

L 52-68

−8.5

CMU

L 46-88

−37.5

BUF

W 72-70

+11.5

OHIO

L 66-74

−1.5

TOL

L 69-79

+2.5

BALL

L 43-79

−37.5

KENT

L 76-102

−15.5

AKR

L 55-94

−15.5

covered 13didn’t cover 15avg −3.1 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

ULM

W 102-82

+36.5

WIS

L 72-97

+11.5

GCU

L 59-88

−16.5

UNI

L 57-70

−19.5

LUC

W 76-59

−13.5

APSU

L 59-77

−11.5

LIN

L 64-99

+15.5

BRAD

L 55-84

−7.5

ELON

L 79-85

+7.5

CMU

W 74-73

−2.5

BUF

L 67-81

−4.5

KENT

L 73-77

−7.5

TOL

L 61-75

−25.5

EMU

L 59-77

−5.5

MASS

W 70-68

−19.5

OHIO

L 77-80

+2.5

BALL

L 53-58

−30.5

WMU

W 85-65

+3.5

M-OH

L 61-85

−12.5

GAST

W 75-74

+5.5

BGSU

L 52-68

−24.5

CMU

L 46-88

−12.5

BUF

W 72-70

−3.5

OHIO

L 66-74

−8.5

TOL

L 69-79

−2.5

BALL

L 43-79

−11.5

KENT

L 76-102

+29.5

AKR

L 55-94

−6.5

over 8under 20avg −4.8 ptslonger = bigger margin

Marquette

32 games played

Straight up

12-20

38% wins

Against the spread

13-19

41% covers · avg −1.6 pts vs the line

Over / Under

15-17

47% overs · avg −1.6 pts vs the total

Straight up

12-2038%

W W L W L L W L W L L L L L L W L L L W L W L W L L L W L W W L

2 of last 4 wonno streak

Against the spread

13-1941%

W L L W L L L W L L L L L L W L W L L L L W W W W L W W L W W L

2 of last 4 coveredno streak

Over / Under

15-1747%

U O O U O U O U O O U U U O U U O O O O O U U U O O U U U U U O

1 of last 4 overno streak

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Nov 3	vsUALB	W 80-53	-24.5	W +2.5	149.5	U 133
Nov 5	vsSOU	W 100-82	-24.5	L −6.5	155.5	O 182
Nov 9	vsIU	L 77-100	+3.5	L −19.5	156.5	O 177
Nov 12	vsLR	W 89-49	-21.5	W +18.5	155.5	U 138
Nov 15	vsMD	L 82-89	-8.5	L −15.5	146.5	O 171
Nov 19	vsDAY	L 71-77	-6.5	L −12.5	151.5	U 148
Nov 22	vsCMU	W 85-71	-25.5	L −11.5	152.5	O 156
Nov 28	vsOU	L 74-75	+1.5	W +0.5	162.5	U 149
Dec 2	vsVAL	W 75-72	-17.5	L −14.5	146.5	O 147
Dec 6	@WIS	L 76-96	+11.5	L −8.5	160.5	O 172
Dec 13	@PUR	L 59-79	+16.5	L −3.5	154.5	U 138
Dec 17	vsGTWN	L 69-78	-6.5	L −15.5	149.5	U 147
Dec 20	@CREI	L 63-84	+6.5	L −14.5	151.5	U 147
Dec 30	vsHALL	L 73-79	-1.5	L −7.5	145.5	O 152
Jan 4	@CONN	L 57-73	+17.5	W +1.5	144.5	U 130
Jan 7	vsXAV	W 66-65	-5.5	L −4.5	157.5	U 131
Jan 10	vsVILL	L 73-76	+3.5	W +0.5	146.5	O 149
Jan 13	@SJU	L 68-92	+15.5	L −8.5	155.5	O 160
Jan 16	@DEP	L 75-80	+2.5	L −2.5	145.5	O 155
Jan 19	vsPROV	W 105-104	-2.5	L −1.5	167.5	O 209
Jan 23	@BTLR	L 76-87	+5.5	L −5.5	161.5	O 163
Jan 27	vsCREI	W 86-62	+1.5	W +25.5	154.5	U 148
Jan 31	@HALL	L 64-69	+6.5	W +1.5	143.5	U 133
Feb 7	vsBTLR	W 70-55	-3.5	W +11.5	155.5	U 125
Feb 10	@VILL	L 74-77	+9.5	W +6.5	144.5	O 151
Feb 14	@XAV	L 88-96	+1.5	L −6.5	157.5	O 184
Feb 18	vsSJU	L 70-76	+8.5	W +2.5	157.5	U 146
Feb 24	@GTWN	W 76-60	+2.5	W +18.5	150.5	U 136
Mar 1	vsDEP	L 51-62	-4.5	L −15.5	139.5	U 113
Mar 4	@PROV	W 78-56	+3.5	W +25.5	161.5	U 134
Mar 7	vsCONN	W 68-62	+9.5	W +15.5	143.5	U 130
Mar 11	vsXAV	L 87-89	-4.5	L −6.5	157.5	O 176

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

UALB

W 80-53

+2.5

SOU

W 100-82

−6.5

L 77-100

−19.5

W 89-49

+18.5

L 82-89

−15.5

DAY

L 71-77

−12.5

CMU

W 85-71

−11.5

L 74-75

+0.5

VAL

W 75-72

−14.5

WIS

L 76-96

−8.5

PUR

L 59-79

−3.5

GTWN

L 69-78

−15.5

CREI

L 63-84

−14.5

HALL

L 73-79

−7.5

CONN

L 57-73

+1.5

XAV

W 66-65

−4.5

VILL

L 73-76

+0.5

SJU

L 68-92

−8.5

DEP

L 75-80

−2.5

PROV

W 105-104

−1.5

BTLR

L 76-87

−5.5

CREI

W 86-62

+25.5

HALL

L 64-69

+1.5

BTLR

W 70-55

+11.5

VILL

L 74-77

+6.5

XAV

L 88-96

−6.5

SJU

L 70-76

+2.5

GTWN

W 76-60

+18.5

DEP

L 51-62

−15.5

PROV

W 78-56

+25.5

CONN

W 68-62

+15.5

XAV

L 87-89

−6.5

covered 13didn’t cover 19avg −1.6 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

UALB

W 80-53

−16.5

SOU

W 100-82

+26.5

L 77-100

+20.5

W 89-49

−17.5

L 82-89

+24.5

DAY

L 71-77

−3.5

CMU

W 85-71

+3.5

L 74-75

−13.5

VAL

W 75-72

+0.5

WIS

L 76-96

+11.5

PUR

L 59-79

−16.5

GTWN

L 69-78

−2.5

CREI

L 63-84

−4.5

HALL

L 73-79

+6.5

CONN

L 57-73

−14.5

XAV

W 66-65

−26.5

VILL

L 73-76

+2.5

SJU

L 68-92

+4.5

DEP

L 75-80

+9.5

PROV

W 105-104

+41.5

BTLR

L 76-87

+1.5

CREI

W 86-62

−6.5

HALL

L 64-69

−10.5

BTLR

W 70-55

−30.5

VILL

L 74-77

+6.5

XAV

L 88-96

+26.5

SJU

L 70-76

−11.5

GTWN

W 76-60

−14.5

DEP

L 51-62

−26.5

PROV

W 78-56

−27.5

CONN

W 68-62

−13.5

XAV

L 87-89

+18.5

over 15under 17avg −1.6 ptslonger = bigger margin

Line = the team’s closing spread (negative = favored). ATS number = points beyond the line; total number = combined points.

Marquette has the better starters

Position by position: N Illinois 0, Marquette 5, even 0

N IllinoisBetterMarquette

G M. Weisbrod TR11 pts · 2 reb · 8 ast Score 27

MARQSmall

G C. Porter TR11.2 pts · 3 reb · 3.3 ast Score 45

G T. Polite15 pts · 5 reb · 1 ast Score 45

MARQBig

G N. Minessale TR19.7 pts · 4.5 reb · 4.2 ast Score 97

G U. Buntyn TR12.5 pts · 2.8 reb · 3.3 ast Score 52

MARQBig

G N. James16.4 pts · 3.4 reb · 4.9 ast Score 99

G D. Douglas TR12 pts · 4 reb · 0 ast Score 9

MARQBig

G A. Stevens7.9 pts · 2.6 reb · 1.6 ast Score 65

F T. Samuels7 pts · 8.4 reb · 1.2 ast Score 33

MARQBig

F R. Parham12.5 pts · 4.9 reb · 0.9 ast Score 87

N IllinoisBetterMarquette

NIU offense327th of 366 · -10.6

MARQBig

MARQ defense36th of 366 · +3.1

NIU defense327th of 366 · -8.5

MARQBig

MARQ offense46th of 366 · +4.2

Backcourt-5.2 · 4 players

MARQBig

Backcourt+8.9 · 4 players

Frontcourt-1.4 · 1 player

MARQBig

Frontcourt+2.5 · 1 player

Bench-3.5 · 3 players

MARQBig

Bench+2.8 · 5 players

Score, worst to bestNIU betterMARQ betterTR transfer · NEW no Division I numbers

Projected starters: college teams publish no depth chart, so these come from minutes played, and a freshman or a new starter can change them. The score is the share of ranked players at the position that player is ahead of. Numbers are this season's once a player has 30 minutes, 2025-26's before that. Bench is the next five by minutes. Tap a player for the full numbers.

Depth chart

Projected rotation by position, starters outlined

N Illinois

Guards

M. Weisbrod31 min · TRT. Polite31 minU. Buntyn31 min · TRD. Douglas30 min · TRN. Carter-SmithNewC. HardrickNew

Forwards

T. Samuels30 minM. Ivanauskas20 min · TRJ. Daugherty10 min · TRA. McBirney-Griffin10 min · TRB. GrossNew

Marquette

Guards

C. Porter35 min · TRN. Minessale32 min · TRN. James29 minA. Stevens26 minE. JohnstonNewN. WalkerNew

Forwards

R. Parham29 minS. Fru22 min · TRD. Owens16 minC. Hamilton13 minM. Phillips8 minJ. Clark6 min

In order of minutes, from rosters as of today. ESPN lists players only as guards, forwards or centers, and no injury report exists for college basketball, so a player who is out may still show here.

Showing 2025-26 until both teams have played this season.

Matchup stats

2025-26 · rank among 365 teams

ChartTable

Scoring

Points per game

NIU66.3 #341

MARQ75.2 #160

Points per possession

NIU0.96 #354

MARQ1.06 #223

Pace (possessions)

NIU69.0 #181

MARQ70.9 #79

Shooting

Effective FG%

NIU47.6 #324

MARQ50.5 #215

3-point %

NIU30.9 #323

MARQ31.7 #297

3-point attempt rate

NIU45.0 #66

MARQ42.2 #133

Free throw rate

NIU38.3 #95

MARQ32.8 #243

Possessions

Turnover rate

NIU21.7 #360

MARQ16.1 #145

Offensive rebound rate

NIU30.3 #187

MARQ29.7 #216

Assists per game

NIU11.6 #308

MARQ15.5 #63

Defense

Points allowed

NIU78.9 #291

MARQ75.8 #213

Points allowed per possession

NIU1.15 #323

MARQ1.07 #125

Opponent effective FG%

NIU55.6 #342

MARQ50.6 #131

Opponent 3-point %

NIU36.3 #315

MARQ32.7 #104

Turnovers forced

NIU16.3 #199

MARQ19.3 #39

Defensive rebound rate

NIU70.0 #161

MARQ65.3 #331

Steals per game

NIU5.6 #288

MARQ9.3 #5

Blocks per game

NIU1.9 #352

MARQ3.1 #207

NIU		MARQ
Scoring
66.3 #341	Points per game	75.2 #160
0.96 #354	Points per possession	1.06 #223
69.0 #181	Pace (possessions)	70.9 #79
Shooting
47.6 #324	Effective FG%	50.5 #215
30.9 #323	3-point %	31.7 #297
45.0 #66	3-point attempt rate	42.2 #133
38.3 #95	Free throw rate	32.8 #243
Possessions
21.7 #360	Turnover rate	16.1 #145
30.3 #187	Offensive rebound rate	29.7 #216
11.6 #308	Assists per game	15.5 #63
Defense
78.9 #291	Points allowed	75.8 #213
1.15 #323	Points allowed per possession	1.07 #125
55.6 #342	Opponent effective FG%	50.6 #131
36.3 #315	Opponent 3-point %	32.7 #104
16.3 #199	Turnovers forced	19.3 #39
70.0 #161	Defensive rebound rate	65.3 #331
5.6 #288	Steals per game	9.3 #5
1.9 #352	Blocks per game	3.1 #207

From the box scores. A longer bar is a better national rank, on every row; the better team's bar is solid. A green rank is near the top of Division I, a red one near the bottom. Pace and 3-point rate are styles, so they have no better side.

N Illinois

7-21 in 2025-26 overall · 4-14 in conference · Horizon League

Last five, 2025-26

L@ Akron55–94
Lvs Kent State76–102
Lvs Ball State43–79
L@ Toledo69–79
Lvs Ohio66–74

A week or more of rest.

Marquette

12-20 in 2025-26 overall · 7-14 in conference · Big East Conference

Last five, 2025-26

Lvs Xavier87–89
Wvs UConn68–62
W@ Providence78–56
Lvs DePaul51–62
W@ Georgetown76–60

A week or more of rest.

Northern Illinois Huskies at Marquette Golden Eagles

What could decide it: MARQ has more of the edges

Market

Model vs market

1st-half model

ATS

Totals

Last 10 games

Next 3 games

Recent meetings

ATS History · 2025-26

N Illinois

Marquette

Marquette has the better starters

Depth chart

Matchup stats

N Illinois

Marquette