1. NCAAB
  2. Wed, Nov 18
  3. YSU @ CIN
NCAAB · Wed, Nov 18

Youngstown State Penguins at Cincinnati Bearcats

Fifth Third Arena · at Cincinnati
#265YSUYoungstown St
@
#30CINCincinnati
LineNo line yet 
Total— 
YSUThis seasonCIN
0-0Record0-0
0-0ATS0-0
0-0O/U0-0

ATS = covered-didn’t-push · O/U = overs-unders

Model: projects CIN 86–60 · win probability CIN 99%
Pick this game
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Winner
Line
—
no line yet
Total
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model 146.4
Model edge
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No market line yet
Public
—
No split yet for this game
The model has not beaten the closing line: with an edge of 3 or more it went 409-367 in 2025-26. Model record

What could decide it: CIN has more of the edges

YSU 0, CIN 7 · 2025-26 numbers until both teams have played three games
Context
Schedule so far
YSU has played the 304th-hardest schedule, CIN the 39th. A record against a soft schedule means less
CINBig
YSU offense vs CIN defense
Offense 267th of 366 against a defense 24th, on the model’s ratings
CINBig
CIN offense vs YSU defense
Offense 49th of 366 against a defense 264th, on the model’s ratings
CINBig
Three-pointers
YSU hits 33.8% and allows 35.5%; CIN hits 33.9% and allows 31.0%. Threes are 49.4% and 43.8% of their shots
CINSmall
Rebounding
Offensive rebound rate: YSU 30.4%, CIN 30.6%. Defensive: YSU 69.3%, CIN 72.7%
CINSmall
Turnovers
Turnover rate: YSU 18.8%, CIN 17.0%. Forced: YSU 17.8%, CIN 18.2%
CINSmall
Home court
CIN at home. This season: CIN 0-0 at home, YSU 0-0 away
CINSmall
Free throws
Free throw rate: YSU 31.4, CIN 29.4. Allowed: YSU 36.0, CIN 30.0
Even
Shooting
Effective FG%: YSU 53.6 and allows 52.3; CIN 50.5 and allows 47.4
Context
Tempo
About 69 possessions: YSU plays 68.9 a game (188th fastest), CIN 69.4 (152nd). Faster games mean more points
Even
Who is back
Minutes back from last season: YSU 8%, CIN 1%. Transfers in: YSU 6, CIN 12. Early in a season, turnover makes teams harder to price
Sorted by how lopsided each matchup is, from national ranks. Reasons to look, not picks: the market already knows most of this.

Market

Open → current
Spread
Opening line not available
Total
 
Moneyline
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Pre-game lines only (ESPN, DraftKings first). After tip-off the line shown is the closing line.

Model vs market

MarketModelModel edge
Spread—CIN -26.5—
Total—146.4—
Projected score—YSU 59.9 · CIN 86.4

1st-half model

1st-half slate ›
ModelActual
1H spreadCIN -15.6—
1H total68.5—
1H projected scoreYSU 26.4 · CIN 42.1—
The 1st-half model is fitted from the full-game model and past halves. ESPN has no 1st-half lines for college games, so there is no market to compare it with.

Cincinnati has the better starters

Position by position: Youngstown St 0, Cincinnati 5, even 0
Youngstown StBetterCincinnati
G L. Holmstrom TR10.9 pts · 2.2 reb · 1.3 ast Score 30
CINBig
G J. Campbell TR19.3 pts · 4.4 reb · 5.1 ast Score 95
G J. Haynes3.9 pts · 1.5 reb · 0.4 ast Score 16
CINBig
G T. Carson TR12.2 pts · 6.5 reb · 2.9 ast Score 75
G J. Tyler TR4.3 pts · 0.9 reb · 0.4 ast Score 18
CINBig
G M. Collins TR17.3 pts · 2.4 reb · 1.6 ast Score 94
G J. Nwankwo TR3 pts · 2.4 reb · 0.7 ast Score 28
CINBig
G T. Riley TR15 pts · 3.9 reb · 4.4 ast Score 92
F J. Coleman TR3.9 pts · 1.6 reb · 0.5 ast Score 5
CINBig
F T. Tejada TR17.9 pts · 5.4 reb · 2.2 ast Score 91
Youngstown StBetterCincinnati
YSU offense267th of 366 · -8.1
CINBig
CIN defense24th of 366 · +4.9
YSU defense264th of 366 · -6.8
CINBig
CIN offense49th of 366 · +3.7
Backcourt-5.5 · 4 players
CINBig
Backcourt+12.2 · 4 players
Frontcourt-1.8 · 1 player
CINBig
Frontcourt+4.0 · 1 player
Bench-2.0 · 2 players
CINBig
Bench+6.3 · 5 players
Score, worst to bestYSU betterCIN betterTR transfer · NEW no Division I numbers
Projected starters: college teams publish no depth chart, so these come from minutes played, and a freshman or a new starter can change them. The score is the share of ranked players at the position that player is ahead of. Numbers are this season's once a player has 30 minutes, 2025-26's before that. Bench is the next five by minutes. Tap a player for the full numbers.

Depth chart

Projected rotation by position, starters outlined
Youngstown St
Guards
L. Holmstrom27 min · TRJ. Haynes15 minJ. Tyler13 min · TRJ. Nwankwo12 min · TRD. Aekins7 min · TRJ. LivingstonNew
Forwards
J. Coleman13 min · TRJ. Moupadele12 min · TRL. LokhmanchukNewE. Summers-LivingstonNew
Centers
K. AmoakoNew
Cincinnati
Guards
J. Campbell35 min · TRT. Carson33 min · TRM. Collins31 min · TRT. Riley28 min · TRM. Colvin27 min · TRA. Fleming26 min · TR
Forwards
T. Tejada36 min · TRR. Allenspach25 min · TRJ. Hastings23 min · TRA. Elamin20 min · TRD. VadenNewD. IwezeNew
In order of minutes, from rosters as of today. ESPN lists players only as guards, forwards or centers, and no injury report exists for college basketball, so a player who is out may still show here.
Showing 2025-26 until both teams have played this season.

Matchup stats

2025-26 · rank among 365 teams
Scoring
Shooting
Possessions
Defense
YSUCIN
Scoring
75.1 #162Points per game73.1 #221
1.09 #160Points per possession1.05 #243
68.9 #188Pace (possessions)69.4 #152
Shooting
53.6 #76Effective FG%50.5 #213
33.8 #1843-point %33.9 #175
49.4 #173-point attempt rate43.8 #94
31.4 #272Free throw rate29.4 #323
Possessions
18.8 #314Turnover rate17.0 #203
30.4 #182Offensive rebound rate30.6 #174
14.0 #144Assists per game16.6 #35
Defense
74.9 #185Points allowed67.6 #27
1.09 #190Points allowed per possession0.97 #9
52.3 #228Opponent effective FG%47.4 #27
35.5 #280Opponent 3-point %31.0 #35
17.8 #106Turnovers forced18.2 #89
69.3 #191Defensive rebound rate72.7 #45
6.7 #151Steals per game6.3 #208
3.5 #146Blocks per game4.2 #53
From the box scores. A longer bar is a better national rank, on every row; the better team's bar is solid. A green rank is near the top of Division I, a red one near the bottom. Pace and 3-point rate are styles, so they have no better side.

Youngstown St

12-17 in 2025-26 overall · 8-13 in conference · Horizon League

Last five, 2025-26
  • L@ Robert Morris53–68
  • L@ Green Bay63–85
  • L@ Milwaukee65–78
  • Wvs N Kentucky64–58
  • Wvs Cleveland St106–82

A week or more of rest.

Cincinnati

18-15 in 2025-26 overall · 10-10 in conference · Big 12 Conference

Last five, 2025-26
  • Lvs UCF65–66
  • Wvs Utah73–66
  • L@ TCU63–73
  • Wvs BYU90–68
  • Wvs Oklahoma St91–68

A week or more of rest.