William & Mary Tribe at Youngstown State Penguins: Model Line and Edge

Sun, Nov 22, 2:00 PM ETZidian Family Arena at Beeghly Center · at Youngstown St

LineNo line yet

Total—

Season records: William & Mary and Youngstown St
W&M	This season	YSU
0-0	Record	0-0
0-0	ATS	0-0
0-0	O/U	0-0

ATS = covered-didn’t-push · O/U = overs-unders

Model: projects W&M 76–76 · win probability W&M 51%

Pick this game

Your picksMy picks ›

Winner

Line

—

no line yet

Total

—

model 152.5

Model edge

—

No market line yet

Public

—

No split yet for this game

The model has not beaten the closing line: with an edge of 3 or more it went 409-367 in 2025-26. Model record

What could decide it: W&M has more of the edges

W&M 4, YSU 2 · 2025-26 numbers until both teams have played three games

W&MBig

Free throws

Free throw rate: W&M 44.0, YSU 31.4. Allowed: W&M 35.5, YSU 36.0

Context

Schedule so far

W&M has played the 171st-hardest schedule, YSU the 304th. A record against a soft schedule means less

W&MSmall

W&M offense vs YSU defense

Offense 160th of 366 against a defense 264th, on the model’s ratings

W&MSmall

Turnovers

Turnover rate: W&M 16.6%, YSU 18.8%. Forced: W&M 18.9%, YSU 17.8%

YSUSmall

Rebounding

Offensive rebound rate: W&M 26.0%, YSU 30.4%. Defensive: W&M 68.5%, YSU 69.3%

Context

Tempo

About 71 possessions: W&M plays 73.6 a game (14th fastest), YSU 68.9 (188th). Faster games mean more points

W&MSmall

Three-pointers

W&M hits 33.0% and allows 33.0%; YSU hits 33.8% and allows 35.5%. Threes are 42.8% and 49.4% of their shots

YSUSmall

Home court

YSU at home. This season: YSU 0-0 at home, W&M 0-0 away

Even

YSU offense vs W&M defense

Offense 267th of 366 against a defense 289th, on the model’s ratings

Even

Shooting

Effective FG%: W&M 54.3 and allows 51.9; YSU 53.6 and allows 52.3

Even

Who is back

Minutes back from last season: W&M 1%, YSU 8%. Transfers in: W&M 7, YSU 6. Early in a season, turnover makes teams harder to price

Sorted by how lopsided each matchup is, from national ranks. Reasons to look, not picks: the market already knows most of this.

Model vs market

	Market	Model	Model edge
Spread	—	W&M -0.3	—
Total	—	152.5	—
Projected score	—	W&M 76.4 · YSU 76.1

1st-half model

1st-half slate ›

	Model	Actual
1H spread	W&M -0.3	—
1H total	71.3	—
1H projected score	W&M 35.8 · YSU 35.5	—

The 1st-half model is fitted from the full-game model and past halves. ESPN has no 1st-half lines for college games, so there is no market to compare it with.

Showing 2025-26 until both teams have played this season.

ATS

2025-26 season

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
W&M LLLWL	16-14	53%	7-8	—
YSU WWLLL	10-19	34%	4-8	—

Venue/role: W&M away; YSU home. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

2025-26 season

	O-U	Over %	SU
W&M UOOUO	13-17	43%	18-12
YSU OUUOU	15-14	52%	12-17

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Tap for the score and line.

Last 10 games

2025-26

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
W&M	6-4 60%	3-7 30%	4-6 40%
YSU	5-5 50%	4-6 40%	5-5 50%

Wins-losses (pushes last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Next 3 games

With how the last meeting with each opponent went

William & Mary

Date	Game	Last meeting
Nov 23	vs IUIN	No recent meeting
Nov 29	@ JMU	L55–69LU
Dec 7	@ MISS	No recent meeting

Youngstown St

Date	Game	Last meeting
Nov 23	vs UMES	No recent meeting
Dec 2	@ CLE	W106–82WO
Dec 5	@ RMU	L53–68LU

Last meeting: result, against the spread, over / under. Hover a result for its date.

ATS History · 2025-26

WwinLloss·Wats winLats lossPpush·Owent over the totalUwent under the total

William & Mary

30 games played

Straight up

18-12

60% wins

Against the spread

16-14

53% covers · avg +0.9 pts vs the line

Over / Under

13-17

43% overs · avg −2.3 pts vs the total

Straight up

18-1260%

W L L W W W W W L W W W L L L W W W L L W L W L L W W W W L

3 of last 4 wonno streak

Against the spread

16-1453%

W W L W W W W W W W W W L L L L W W L L W L W L L L L L W L

1 of last 4 coveredno streak

Over / Under

13-1743%

O O U U U O U U O O U U O U U O U O U O O U U U U U O O U O

3 of last 4 overno streak

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Nov 8	@NORF	W 81-78	-2.5	W +0.5	158.5	O 159
Nov 11	@RICH	L 86-90	+9.5	W +5.5	164.5	O 176
Nov 15	@SJU	L 60-93	+28.5	L −4.5	179.5	U 153
Nov 19	@BGSU	W 82-74	+8.5	W +16.5	167.5	U 156
Nov 24	vsUTEP	W 74-63	-2.5	W +8.5	159.5	U 137
Nov 25	vsACU	W 92-58	+1.5	W +35.5	147.5	O 150
Nov 30	vsODU	W 88-75	-8.5	W +4.5	163.5	U 163
Dec 2	@DUQ	W 83-79	+5.5	W +9.5	170.5	U 162
Dec 6	@GW	L 86-99	+13.5	W +0.5	174.5	O 185
Dec 18	vsRAD	W 96-83	-8.5	W +4.5	170.5	O 179
Dec 29	vsTOW	W 84-70	-1.5	W +12.5	157.5	U 154
Dec 31	vsSTBK	W 76-57	-11.5	W +7.5	159.5	U 133
Jan 5	@COFC	L 79-88	+2.5	L −6.5	165.5	O 167
Jan 8	@MONM	L 70-81	-2.5	L −13.5	156.5	U 151
Jan 10	@DREX	L 58-64	-3.5	L −9.5	150.5	U 122
Jan 15	vsNCAT	W 97-89	-13.5	L −5.5	162.5	O 186
Jan 22	vsUNCW	W 77-70	-2.5	W +4.5	159.5	U 147
Jan 24	vsHOF	W 89-82	-3.5	W +3.5	157.5	O 171
Jan 29	@ELON	L 76-79	-1.5	L −4.5	169.5	U 155
Jan 31	vsCAM	L 96-104	-8.5	L −16.5	168.5	O 200
Feb 5	@UNCW	W 85-78	+4.5	W +11.5	159.5	O 163
Feb 7	@HAMP	L 74-77	-5.5	L −8.5	152.5	U 151
Feb 12	@NE	W 94-67	-5.5	W +21.5	167.5	U 161
Feb 14	vsELON	L 78-81	-8.5	L −11.5	165.5	U 159
Feb 19	@CAM	L 83-84	-1.5	L −2.5	167.5	U 167
Feb 26	vsNE	W 84-77	-11.5	L −4.5	164.5	U 161
Feb 28	@NCAT	W 91-88	-8.5	L −5.5	163.5	O 179
Mar 3	vsHAMP	W 94-85	-11.5	L −2.5	163.5	O 179
Mar 7	vsELON	W 72-62	-5.5	W +4.5	163.5	U 134
Mar 8	vsHOF	L 61-92	+2.5	L −28.5	152.5	O 153

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

NORF

W 81-78

+0.5

RICH

L 86-90

+5.5

SJU

L 60-93

−4.5

BGSU

W 82-74

+16.5

UTEP

W 74-63

+8.5

ACU

W 92-58

+35.5

ODU

W 88-75

+4.5

DUQ

W 83-79

+9.5

L 86-99

+0.5

RAD

W 96-83

+4.5

TOW

W 84-70

+12.5

STBK

W 76-57

+7.5

COFC

L 79-88

−6.5

MONM

L 70-81

−13.5

DREX

L 58-64

−9.5

NCAT

W 97-89

−5.5

UNCW

W 77-70

+4.5

HOF

W 89-82

+3.5

ELON

L 76-79

−4.5

CAM

L 96-104

−16.5

UNCW

W 85-78

+11.5

HAMP

L 74-77

−8.5

W 94-67

+21.5

ELON

L 78-81

−11.5

CAM

L 83-84

−2.5

W 84-77

−4.5

NCAT

W 91-88

−5.5

HAMP

W 94-85

−2.5

ELON

W 72-62

+4.5

HOF

L 61-92

−28.5

covered 16didn’t cover 14avg +0.9 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

NORF

W 81-78

+0.5

RICH

L 86-90

+11.5

SJU

L 60-93

−26.5

BGSU

W 82-74

−11.5

UTEP

W 74-63

−22.5

ACU

W 92-58

+2.5

ODU

W 88-75

−0.5

DUQ

W 83-79

−8.5

L 86-99

+10.5

RAD

W 96-83

+8.5

TOW

W 84-70

−3.5

STBK

W 76-57

−26.5

COFC

L 79-88

+1.5

MONM

L 70-81

−5.5

DREX

L 58-64

−28.5

NCAT

W 97-89

+23.5

UNCW

W 77-70

−12.5

HOF

W 89-82

+13.5

ELON

L 76-79

−14.5

CAM

L 96-104

+31.5

UNCW

W 85-78

+3.5

HAMP

L 74-77

−1.5

W 94-67

−6.5

ELON

L 78-81

−6.5

CAM

L 83-84

−0.5

W 84-77

−3.5

NCAT

W 91-88

+15.5

HAMP

W 94-85

+15.5

ELON

W 72-62

−29.5

HOF

L 61-92

+0.5

over 13under 17avg −2.3 ptslonger = bigger margin

Youngstown St

29 games played

Straight up

12-17

41% wins

Against the spread

10-19

34% covers · avg −1.4 pts vs the line

Over / Under

15-14

52% overs · avg +0.3 pts vs the total

Straight up

12-1741%

L W L L L W W W W L W L L L L L L W L W W L W L W W L L L

3 straight losses1 of last 4 won

Against the spread

10-1934%

L W W L L W W L W L W L L L L L L L L L W L W L W W L L L

3 straight misses ATS1 of last 4 covered

Over / Under

15-1452%

U O O O U U O U U O U U O O U O O O U O O U O U O U U O U

1 of last 4 overno streak

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Nov 3	@PITT	L 59-74	+14.5	L −0.5	145.5	U 133
Nov 7	@GCU	W 90-81	+15.5	W +24.5	152.5	O 171
Nov 15	@SBU	L 80-84	+9.5	W +5.5	146.5	O 164
Nov 19	@TOL	L 75-92	+1.5	L −15.5	160.5	O 167
Nov 23	vsUNCG	L 62-68	-5.5	L −11.5	152.5	U 130
Nov 24	vsGASO	W 67-61	-1.5	W +4.5	163.5	U 128
Nov 28	vsCHST	W 87-64	-14.5	W +8.5	146.5	O 151
Dec 3	vsWRST	W 69-68	-3.5	L −2.5	144.5	U 137
Dec 6	@IUIN	W 78-55	-6.5	W +16.5	171.5	U 133
Dec 17	@RMU	L 77-80	+2.5	L −0.5	140.5	O 157
Dec 20	vsUPST	W 74-65	-6.5	W +2.5	141.5	U 139
Dec 29	vsDETM	L 68-73	-9.5	L −14.5	146.5	U 141
Jan 1	vsOAK	L 83-85	-1.5	L −3.5	157.5	O 168
Jan 4	@NKU	L 79-94	+4.5	L −10.5	146.5	O 173
Jan 7	vsPFW	L 69-71	-4.5	L −6.5	145.5	U 140
Jan 15	@WRST	L 83-93	+4.5	L −5.5	141.5	O 176
Jan 17	@CLE	L 78-80	-8.5	L −10.5	152.5	O 158
Jan 22	vsGB	W 88-81	-7.5	L −0.5	139.5	O 169
Jan 24	vsMILW	L 64-65	-6.5	L −7.5	151.5	U 129
Jan 30	vsIUIN	W 85-76	-10.5	L −1.5	153.5	O 161
Feb 4	@PFW	W 90-61	+2.5	W +31.5	147.5	O 151
Feb 7	vsRMU	L 66-72	-3.5	L −9.5	143.5	U 138
Feb 12	@OAK	W 86-82	+3.5	W +7.5	155.5	O 168
Feb 15	@DETM	L 70-76	-4.5	L −10.5	151.5	U 146
Feb 18	vsCLE	W 106-82	-11.5	W +12.5	157.5	O 188
Feb 22	vsNKU	W 64-58	-2.5	W +3.5	152.5	U 122
Feb 25	@MILW	L 65-78	-1.5	L −14.5	147.5	U 143
Feb 28	@GB	L 63-85	+1.5	L −20.5	141.5	O 148
Mar 4	@RMU	L 53-68	+3.5	L −11.5	143.5	U 121

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

PITT

L 59-74

−0.5

GCU

W 90-81

+24.5

SBU

L 80-84

+5.5

TOL

L 75-92

−15.5

UNCG

L 62-68

−11.5

GASO

W 67-61

+4.5

CHST

W 87-64

+8.5

WRST

W 69-68

−2.5

IUIN

W 78-55

+16.5

RMU

L 77-80

−0.5

UPST

W 74-65

+2.5

DETM

L 68-73

−14.5

OAK

L 83-85

−3.5

NKU

L 79-94

−10.5

PFW

L 69-71

−6.5

WRST

L 83-93

−5.5

CLE

L 78-80

−10.5

W 88-81

−0.5

MILW

L 64-65

−7.5

IUIN

W 85-76

−1.5

PFW

W 90-61

+31.5

RMU

L 66-72

−9.5

OAK

W 86-82

+7.5

DETM

L 70-76

−10.5

CLE

W 106-82

+12.5

NKU

W 64-58

+3.5

MILW

L 65-78

−14.5

L 63-85

−20.5

RMU

L 53-68

−11.5

covered 10didn’t cover 19avg −1.4 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

PITT

L 59-74

−12.5

GCU

W 90-81

+18.5

SBU

L 80-84

+17.5

TOL

L 75-92

+6.5

UNCG

L 62-68

−22.5

GASO

W 67-61

−35.5

CHST

W 87-64

+4.5

WRST

W 69-68

−7.5

IUIN

W 78-55

−38.5

RMU

L 77-80

+16.5

UPST

W 74-65

−2.5

DETM

L 68-73

−5.5

OAK

L 83-85

+10.5

NKU

L 79-94

+26.5

PFW

L 69-71

−5.5

WRST

L 83-93

+34.5

CLE

L 78-80

+5.5

W 88-81

+29.5

MILW

L 64-65

−22.5

IUIN

W 85-76

+7.5

PFW

W 90-61

+3.5

RMU

L 66-72

−5.5

OAK

W 86-82

+12.5

DETM

L 70-76

−5.5

CLE

W 106-82

+30.5

NKU

W 64-58

−30.5

MILW

L 65-78

−4.5

L 63-85

+6.5

RMU

L 53-68

−22.5

over 15under 14avg +0.3 ptslonger = bigger margin

Line = the team’s closing spread (negative = favored). ATS number = points beyond the line; total number = combined points.

William & Mary has the better starters

Position by position: William & Mary 2, Youngstown St 0, even 3

William & MaryBetterYoungstown St

G J. Baldwin TR7.7 pts · 4.2 reb · 3.2 ast Score 63

W&MSmall

G L. Holmstrom TR10.9 pts · 2.2 reb · 1.3 ast Score 30

G J. McIntosh TR6.8 pts · 3.2 reb · 1.3 ast Score 48

W&MSmall

G J. Haynes3.9 pts · 1.5 reb · 0.4 ast Score 16

G T. Blassingame TR3.7 pts · 2.6 reb · 0.6 ast Score 18

Even

G J. Tyler TR4.3 pts · 0.9 reb · 0.4 ast Score 18

G N. Daniels TR2 pts · 1.1 reb · 0.4 ast Not ranked

No call

G J. Nwankwo TR3 pts · 2.4 reb · 0.7 ast Score 28

F S. Sivka TR2 pts · 1.4 reb · 0.3 ast Score 15

Even

F J. Coleman TR3.9 pts · 1.6 reb · 0.5 ast Score 5

William & MaryBetterYoungstown St

W&M offense160th of 366 · -4.8

W&MSmall

YSU defense264th of 366 · -6.8

W&M defense289th of 366 · -7.2

Even

YSU offense267th of 366 · -8.1

Backcourt-2.6 · 4 players

W&MSmall

Backcourt-5.5 · 4 players

Frontcourt-1.0 · 1 player

Even

Frontcourt-1.8 · 1 player

Bench-0.4 · 3 players

W&MSmall

Bench-2.0 · 2 players

Score, worst to bestW&M betterYSU betterTR transfer · NEW no Division I numbers

Projected starters: college teams publish no depth chart, so these come from minutes played, and a freshman or a new starter can change them. The score is the share of ranked players at the position that player is ahead of. Numbers are this season's once a player has 30 minutes, 2025-26's before that. Bench is the next five by minutes. Tap a player for the full numbers.

Depth chart

Projected rotation by position, starters outlined

William & Mary

Guards

J. Baldwin20 min · TRJ. McIntosh17 min · TRT. Blassingame17 min · TRN. Daniels10 min · TRZ. Clark9 min · TRJ. Forsythe4 min · TR

Forwards

S. Sivka11 min · TRB. CarterNewJ. RolandNew

Youngstown St

Guards

L. Holmstrom27 min · TRJ. Haynes15 minJ. Tyler13 min · TRJ. Nwankwo12 min · TRD. Aekins7 min · TRJ. LivingstonNew

Forwards

J. Coleman13 min · TRJ. Moupadele12 min · TRL. LokhmanchukNewE. Summers-LivingstonNew

Centers

K. AmoakoNew

In order of minutes, from rosters as of today. ESPN lists players only as guards, forwards or centers, and no injury report exists for college basketball, so a player who is out may still show here.

Showing 2025-26 until both teams have played this season.

Matchup stats

2025-26 · rank among 365 teams

ChartTable

Scoring

Points per game

W&M81.5 #38

YSU75.1 #162

Points per possession

W&M1.11 #116

YSU1.09 #160

Pace (possessions)

W&M73.6 #14

YSU68.9 #188

Shooting

Effective FG%

W&M54.3 #58

YSU53.6 #76

3-point %

W&M33.0 #233

YSU33.8 #184

3-point attempt rate

W&M42.8 #120

YSU49.4 #17

Free throw rate

W&M44.0 #9

YSU31.4 #272

Possessions

Turnover rate

W&M16.6 #171

YSU18.8 #314

Offensive rebound rate

W&M26.0 #324

YSU30.4 #182

Assists per game

W&M17.4 #17

YSU14.0 #144

Defense

Points allowed

W&M78.9 #294

YSU74.9 #185

Points allowed per possession

W&M1.07 #126

YSU1.09 #190

Opponent effective FG%

W&M51.9 #205

YSU52.3 #228

Opponent 3-point %

W&M33.0 #126

YSU35.5 #280

Turnovers forced

W&M18.9 #52

YSU17.8 #106

Defensive rebound rate

W&M68.5 #229

YSU69.3 #191

Steals per game

W&M7.9 #47

YSU6.7 #151

Blocks per game

W&M3.8 #95

YSU3.5 #146

W&M		YSU
Scoring
81.5 #38	Points per game	75.1 #162
1.11 #116	Points per possession	1.09 #160
73.6 #14	Pace (possessions)	68.9 #188
Shooting
54.3 #58	Effective FG%	53.6 #76
33.0 #233	3-point %	33.8 #184
42.8 #120	3-point attempt rate	49.4 #17
44.0 #9	Free throw rate	31.4 #272
Possessions
16.6 #171	Turnover rate	18.8 #314
26.0 #324	Offensive rebound rate	30.4 #182
17.4 #17	Assists per game	14.0 #144
Defense
78.9 #294	Points allowed	74.9 #185
1.07 #126	Points allowed per possession	1.09 #190
51.9 #205	Opponent effective FG%	52.3 #228
33.0 #126	Opponent 3-point %	35.5 #280
18.9 #52	Turnovers forced	17.8 #106
68.5 #229	Defensive rebound rate	69.3 #191
7.9 #47	Steals per game	6.7 #151
3.8 #95	Blocks per game	3.5 #146

From the box scores. A longer bar is a better national rank, on every row; the better team's bar is solid. A green rank is near the top of Division I, a red one near the bottom. Pace and 3-point rate are styles, so they have no better side.

William & Mary

18-12 in 2025-26 overall · 11-9 in conference · Coastal Athletic Association

Last five, 2025-26

Lvs Hofstra61–92
Wvs Elon72–62
Wvs Hampton94–85
W@ NC A&T91–88
Wvs Northeastern84–77

A week or more of rest.

Youngstown St

12-17 in 2025-26 overall · 8-13 in conference · Horizon League

Last five, 2025-26

L@ Robert Morris53–68
L@ Green Bay63–85
L@ Milwaukee65–78
Wvs N Kentucky64–58
Wvs Cleveland St106–82

A week or more of rest.

William & Mary Tribe at Youngstown State Penguins

What could decide it: W&M has more of the edges

Market

Model vs market

1st-half model

ATS

Totals

Last 10 games

Next 3 games

ATS History · 2025-26

William & Mary

Youngstown St

William & Mary has the better starters

Depth chart

Matchup stats

William & Mary

Youngstown St