1. NCAAB
  2. Wed, Nov 18
  3. PFW @ BRAD
NCAAB · Wed, Nov 18

Purdue Fort Wayne Mastodons at Bradley Braves

Carver Arena · at Bradley
#250PFWPurdue FW
@
#167BRADBradley
LineNo line yet 
Total— 
PFWThis seasonBRAD
0-0Record0-0
0-0ATS0-0
0-0O/U0-0

ATS = covered-didn’t-push · O/U = overs-unders

Model: projects BRAD 79–71 · win probability BRAD 76%
Pick this game
Your picksMy picks ›
Winner
Line
—
no line yet
Total
—
model 150.4
Model edge
—
No market line yet
Public
—
No split yet for this game
The model has not beaten the closing line: with an edge of 3 or more it went 409-367 in 2025-26. Model record

What could decide it: BRAD has more of the edges

PFW 1, BRAD 4 · 2025-26 numbers until both teams have played three games
BRADBig
Rebounding
Offensive rebound rate: PFW 22.9%, BRAD 27.4%. Defensive: PFW 65.5%, BRAD 72.2%
BRADBig
BRAD offense vs PFW defense
Offense 175th of 366 against a defense 291st, on the model’s ratings
BRADSmall
Three-pointers
PFW hits 34.2% and allows 37.9%; BRAD hits 36.1% and allows 36.6%. Threes are 45.4% and 40.5% of their shots
Context
Schedule so far
PFW has played the 209th-hardest schedule, BRAD the 155th. A record against a soft schedule means less
BRADSmall
Home court
BRAD at home. This season: BRAD 0-0 at home, PFW 0-0 away
PFWSmall
Free throws
Free throw rate: PFW 30.6, BRAD 35.9. Allowed: PFW 28.6, BRAD 38.2
Even
PFW offense vs BRAD defense
Offense 218th of 366 against a defense 185th, on the model’s ratings
Context
Tempo
About 69 possessions: PFW plays 69.0 a game (179th fastest), BRAD 69.9 (125th). Faster games mean more points
Even
Who is back
Minutes back from last season: PFW 29%, BRAD 16%. Transfers in: PFW 2, BRAD 3. Early in a season, turnover makes teams harder to price
Even
Shooting
Effective FG%: PFW 52.6 and allows 56.1; BRAD 51.1 and allows 52.8
Even
Turnovers
Turnover rate: PFW 14.5%, BRAD 13.9%. Forced: PFW 19.1%, BRAD 18.9%
Sorted by how lopsided each matchup is, from national ranks. Reasons to look, not picks: the market already knows most of this.

Market

Open → current
Spread
Opening line not available
Total
 
Moneyline
—

Pre-game lines only (ESPN, DraftKings first). After tip-off the line shown is the closing line.

Model vs market

MarketModelModel edge
Spread—BRAD -8.3—
Total—150.4—
Projected score—PFW 71.1 · BRAD 79.4

1st-half model

1st-half slate ›
ModelActual
1H spreadBRAD -4.8—
1H total70.3—
1H projected scorePFW 32.8 · BRAD 37.6—
The 1st-half model is fitted from the full-game model and past halves. ESPN has no 1st-half lines for college games, so there is no market to compare it with.

The starting fives are even

Position by position: Purdue FW 1, Bradley 1, even 3
Purdue FWBetterBradley
G D. Craig13.7 pts · 3.2 reb · 2.7 ast Score 68
PFWBig
G T. Payton TR9.3 pts · 3.3 reb · 2.7 ast Score 15
G A. Williamson TR7.3 pts · 2.3 reb · 2.1 ast Score 16
Even
G T. van der Knaap6.5 pts · 4.8 reb · 0.4 ast Score 30
G C. Morgan2.3 pts · 1 reb · 0.9 ast Score 2
No call
G D. Richardson2.2 pts · 0.7 reb · 0.5 ast Not ranked
G E. Mosley2.8 pts · 1 reb · 0.6 ast Score 9
BRADBig
F X. Alarie TR10.3 pts · 7.4 reb · 1.5 ast Score 50
F A. Isaac TR9.5 pts · 7.3 reb · 0.9 ast Score 63
No call
F J. Ibukunoluwa TR2.3 pts · 1.4 reb · 0.2 ast Not ranked
Purdue FWBetterBradley
PFW offense218th of 366 · -6.7
Even
BRAD defense185th of 366 · -4.3
PFW defense291st of 366 · -7.3
BRADSmall
BRAD offense175th of 366 · -5.4
Backcourt-5.6 · 4 players
Even
Backcourt-5.9 · 3 players
Frontcourt+0.4 · 1 player
Even
Frontcourt-0.2 · 2 players
Bench-0.2 · 1 player
Even
Bench-0.0 · 1 player
Score, worst to bestPFW betterBRAD betterTR transfer · NEW no Division I numbers
Projected starters: college teams publish no depth chart, so these come from minutes played, and a freshman or a new starter can change them. The score is the share of ranked players at the position that player is ahead of. Numbers are this season's once a player has 30 minutes, 2025-26's before that. Bench is the next five by minutes. Tap a player for the full numbers.

Depth chart

Projected rotation by position, starters outlined
Purdue FW
Guards
D. Craig30 minA. Williamson23 min · TRC. Morgan14 minE. Mosley12 minM. Shrout3 minD. LewisNew
Forwards
A. Isaac24 min · TRE. OrtizNewQ. MorganNewA. WalkerNew
Bradley
Guards
T. Payton34 min · TRT. van der Knaap23 minD. Richardson7 minG. Rugaard1 minK. GrillNewG. GerganovNew
Forwards
X. Alarie28 min · TRJ. Ibukunoluwa6 min · TRB. ThornbrueNew
Centers
G. GuimaresNew
In order of minutes, from rosters as of today. ESPN lists players only as guards, forwards or centers, and no injury report exists for college basketball, so a player who is out may still show here.
Showing 2025-26 until both teams have played this season.

Matchup stats

2025-26 · rank among 365 teams
Scoring
Shooting
Possessions
Defense
PFWBRAD
Scoring
74.2 #189Points per game77.0 #117
1.07 #204Points per possession1.10 #129
69.0 #179Pace (possessions)69.9 #125
Shooting
52.6 #125Effective FG%51.1 #189
34.2 #1633-point %36.1 #53
45.4 #603-point attempt rate40.5 #161
30.6 #292Free throw rate35.9 #156
Possessions
14.5 #43Turnover rate13.9 #19
22.9 #351Offensive rebound rate27.4 #285
13.1 #207Assists per game13.3 #191
Defense
78.8 #286Points allowed74.2 #162
1.14 #311Points allowed per possession1.06 #109
56.1 #345Opponent effective FG%52.8 #259
37.9 #355Opponent 3-point %36.6 #334
19.1 #44Turnovers forced18.9 #53
65.5 #327Defensive rebound rate72.2 #62
7.9 #42Steals per game7.5 #86
3.0 #224Blocks per game3.2 #192
From the box scores. A longer bar is a better national rank, on every row; the better team's bar is solid. A green rank is near the top of Division I, a red one near the bottom. Pace and 3-point rate are styles, so they have no better side.

Purdue FW

14-15 in 2025-26 overall · 11-10 in conference · Horizon League

Last five, 2025-26
  • L@ Green Bay56–64
  • W@ IU Indy87–81
  • Lvs Wright St70–74
  • W@ Cleveland St92–86
  • L@ N Kentucky71–87

A week or more of rest.

Bradley

20-13 in 2025-26 overall · 14-8 in conference · Missouri Valley Conference

Last five, 2025-26
  • Lvs Dayton66–80
  • Lvs Northern Iowa69–73
  • Wvs Valparaiso90–84
  • Wvs Murray St87–78
  • L@ UIC86–93

A week or more of rest.