1. NCAAB
  2. Sat, Nov 21
  3. BRAD @ PAC
NCAAB · Sat, Nov 21

Bradley Braves at Pacific Tigers

Alex G. Spanos Center · at Pacific
#167BRADBradley
@
#163PACPacific
LineNo line yet 
Total— 
BRADThis seasonPAC
0-0Record0-0
0-0ATS0-0
0-0O/U0-0

ATS = covered-didn’t-push · O/U = overs-unders

Model: projects PAC 75–71 · win probability PAC 63%
Pick this game
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Winner
Line
—
no line yet
Total
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model 145.9
Model edge
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No market line yet
Public
—
No split yet for this game
The model has not beaten the closing line: with an edge of 3 or more it went 409-367 in 2025-26. Model record

What could decide it: PAC has more of the edges

BRAD 2, PAC 4 · 2025-26 numbers until both teams have played three games
BRADBig
Turnovers
Turnover rate: BRAD 13.9%, PAC 20.1%. Forced: BRAD 18.9%, PAC 15.1%
PACBig
Rebounding
Offensive rebound rate: BRAD 27.4%, PAC 35.3%. Defensive: BRAD 72.2%, PAC 75.0%
PACSmall
Shooting
Effective FG%: BRAD 51.1 and allows 52.8; PAC 52.2 and allows 50.0
Context
Tempo
About 68 possessions: BRAD plays 69.9 a game (125th fastest), PAC 66.1 (312th). Faster games mean more points
PACSmall
Home court
PAC at home. This season: PAC 0-0 at home, BRAD 0-0 away
BRADSmall
Free throws
Free throw rate: BRAD 35.9, PAC 30.5. Allowed: BRAD 38.2, PAC 36.3
PACSmall
Three-pointers
BRAD hits 36.1% and allows 36.6%; PAC hits 35.8% and allows 34.7%. Threes are 40.5% and 35.4% of their shots
Context
Schedule so far
BRAD has played the 155th-hardest schedule, PAC the 122nd. A record against a soft schedule means less
Even
BRAD offense vs PAC defense
Offense 175th of 366 against a defense 147th, on the model’s ratings
Even
Who is back
Minutes back from last season: BRAD 16%, PAC 8%. Transfers in: BRAD 3, PAC 9. Early in a season, turnover makes teams harder to price
Even
PAC offense vs BRAD defense
Offense 195th of 366 against a defense 185th, on the model’s ratings
Sorted by how lopsided each matchup is, from national ranks. Reasons to look, not picks: the market already knows most of this.

Market

Open → current
Spread
Opening line not available
Total
 
Moneyline
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Pre-game lines only (ESPN, DraftKings first). After tip-off the line shown is the closing line.

Model vs market

MarketModelModel edge
Spread—PAC -3.8—
Total—145.9—
Projected score—BRAD 71.1 · PAC 74.9

1st-half model

1st-half slate ›
ModelActual
1H spreadPAC -2.2—
1H total68.3—
1H projected scoreBRAD 33.1 · PAC 35.2—
The 1st-half model is fitted from the full-game model and past halves. ESPN has no 1st-half lines for college games, so there is no market to compare it with.

The starting fives are even

Position by position: Bradley 1, Pacific 1, even 3
BradleyBetterPacific
G T. Payton TR9.3 pts · 3.3 reb · 2.7 ast Score 15
PACBig
G J. Winston TR15.5 pts · 3 reb · 3.8 ast Score 74
G T. van der Knaap6.5 pts · 4.8 reb · 0.4 ast Score 30
Even
G C. Amundsen TR9.4 pts · 2 reb · 3.8 ast Score 34
G D. Richardson2.2 pts · 0.7 reb · 0.5 ast Not ranked
No call
G C. Jones TR3.6 pts · 1.8 reb · 1.3 ast Score 17
F X. Alarie TR10.3 pts · 7.4 reb · 1.5 ast Score 50
BRADBig
F G. Ripp TR3.9 pts · 2.4 reb · 1.4 ast Score 10
F J. Ibukunoluwa TR2.3 pts · 1.4 reb · 0.2 ast Not ranked
No call
F J. Pitt4.4 pts · 3.7 reb · 0.5 ast Score 57
BradleyBetterPacific
BRAD offense175th of 366 · -5.4
Even
PAC defense147th of 366 · -3.2
BRAD defense185th of 366 · -4.3
Even
PAC offense195th of 366 · -6.1
Backcourt-5.9 · 3 players
PACBig
Backcourt-2.4 · 3 players
Frontcourt-0.2 · 2 players
BRADSmall
Frontcourt-1.7 · 2 players
Bench-0.0 · 1 player
BRADSmall
Bench-1.2 · 5 players
Score, worst to bestBRAD betterPAC betterTR transfer · NEW no Division I numbers
Projected starters: college teams publish no depth chart, so these come from minutes played, and a freshman or a new starter can change them. The score is the share of ranked players at the position that player is ahead of. Numbers are this season's once a player has 30 minutes, 2025-26's before that. Bench is the next five by minutes. Tap a player for the full numbers.

Depth chart

Projected rotation by position, starters outlined
Bradley
Guards
T. Payton34 min · TRT. van der Knaap23 minD. Richardson7 minG. Rugaard1 minK. GrillNewG. GerganovNew
Forwards
X. Alarie28 min · TRJ. Ibukunoluwa6 min · TRB. ThornbrueNew
Centers
G. GuimaresNew
Pacific
Guards
J. Winston36 min · TRC. Amundsen30 min · TRC. Jones17 min · TRA. Nyorha10 min · TRD. Harris6 min · TRN. BuduNew
Forwards
G. Ripp17 min · TRJ. Pitt17 minJ. Thompson11 min · TRV. OsazeeNewJ. CarotNew
Centers
J. McFarland3 min · TRI. Matlekovic2 min · TR
In order of minutes, from rosters as of today. ESPN lists players only as guards, forwards or centers, and no injury report exists for college basketball, so a player who is out may still show here.
Showing 2025-26 until both teams have played this season.

Matchup stats

2025-26 · rank among 365 teams
Scoring
Shooting
Possessions
Defense
BRADPAC
Scoring
77.0 #117Points per game71.3 #262
1.10 #129Points per possession1.08 #176
69.9 #125Pace (possessions)66.1 #312
Shooting
51.1 #189Effective FG%52.2 #140
36.1 #533-point %35.8 #65
40.5 #1613-point attempt rate35.4 #266
35.9 #156Free throw rate30.5 #297
Possessions
13.9 #19Turnover rate20.1 #350
27.4 #285Offensive rebound rate35.3 #42
13.3 #191Assists per game14.9 #93
Defense
74.2 #162Points allowed69.8 #60
1.06 #109Points allowed per possession1.05 #93
52.8 #259Opponent effective FG%50.0 #101
36.6 #334Opponent 3-point %34.7 #233
18.9 #53Turnovers forced15.1 #281
72.2 #62Defensive rebound rate75.0 #8
7.5 #86Steals per game5.4 #309
3.2 #192Blocks per game2.2 #332
From the box scores. A longer bar is a better national rank, on every row; the better team's bar is solid. A green rank is near the top of Division I, a red one near the bottom. Pace and 3-point rate are styles, so they have no better side.

Bradley

20-13 in 2025-26 overall · 14-8 in conference · Missouri Valley Conference

Last five, 2025-26
  • Lvs Dayton66–80
  • Lvs Northern Iowa69–73
  • Wvs Valparaiso90–84
  • Wvs Murray St87–78
  • L@ UIC86–93

A week or more of rest.

Pacific

16-15 in 2025-26 overall · 9-11 in conference · West Coast Conference

Last five, 2025-26
  • Lvs Santa Clara68–76
  • Wvs Seattle U61–58
  • Lvs San Francisco61–72
  • L@ Gonzaga62–71
  • L@ Washington St70–87

A week or more of rest.