1. NCAAB
  2. Wed, Nov 25
  3. UIW @ HAW
NCAAB · Wed, Nov 25

Incarnate Word Cardinals at Hawai'i Rainbow Warriors

Stan Sheriff Center · at Hawai'i
#289UIWIncarnate Word
@
#140HAWHawai'i
LineNo line yet 
Total— 
UIWThis seasonHAW
0-0Record0-0
0-0ATS0-0
0-0O/U0-0

ATS = covered-didn’t-push · O/U = overs-unders

Model: projects HAW 80–67 · win probability HAW 87%
Pick this game
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Winner
Line
—
no line yet
Total
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model 147.2
Model edge
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No market line yet
Public
—
No split yet for this game
The model has not beaten the closing line: with an edge of 3 or more it went 409-367 in 2025-26. Model record

What could decide it: HAW has more of the edges

UIW 0, HAW 6 · 2025-26 numbers until both teams have played three games
HAWBig
Shooting
Effective FG%: UIW 50.2 and allows 54.5; HAW 52.0 and allows 46.8
Context
Tempo
About 69 possessions: UIW plays 65.4 a game (335th fastest), HAW 73.0 (19th). Faster games mean more points
HAWBig
Free throws
Free throw rate: UIW 34.0, HAW 41.4. Allowed: UIW 41.6, HAW 35.6
HAWBig
HAW offense vs UIW defense
Offense 136th of 366 against a defense 280th, on the model’s ratings
HAWBig
UIW offense vs HAW defense
Offense 291st of 366 against a defense 150th, on the model’s ratings
HAWSmall
Rebounding
Offensive rebound rate: UIW 32.1%, HAW 31.3%. Defensive: UIW 68.0%, HAW 74.7%
HAWSmall
Home court
HAW at home. This season: HAW 0-0 at home, UIW 0-0 away
Context
Schedule so far
UIW has played the 285th-hardest schedule, HAW the 242nd. A record against a soft schedule means less
Even
Three-pointers
UIW hits 36.1% and allows 34.4%; HAW hits 31.7% and allows 30.3%. Threes are 39.1% and 39.8% of their shots
Even
Turnovers
Turnover rate: UIW 17.1%, HAW 18.8%. Forced: UIW 15.8%, HAW 16.8%
Even
Who is back
Minutes back from last season: UIW 17%, HAW 10%. Transfers in: UIW 5, HAW 6. Early in a season, turnover makes teams harder to price
Sorted by how lopsided each matchup is, from national ranks. Reasons to look, not picks: the market already knows most of this.

Market

Open → current
Spread
Opening line not available
Total
 
Moneyline
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Pre-game lines only (ESPN, DraftKings first). After tip-off the line shown is the closing line.

Model vs market

MarketModelModel edge
Spread—HAW -12.7—
Total—147.2—
Projected score—UIW 67.3 · HAW 80

1st-half model

1st-half slate ›
ModelActual
1H spreadHAW -7.4—
1H total68.9—
1H projected scoreUIW 30.7 · HAW 38.2—
The 1st-half model is fitted from the full-game model and past halves. ESPN has no 1st-half lines for college games, so there is no market to compare it with.

Hawai'i has the better starters

Position by position: Incarnate Word 0, Hawai'i 2, even 3
Incarnate WordBetterHawai'i
G I. Habib14.4 pts · 3.5 reb · 2.7 ast Score 36
Even
G C. Trujillo TR12.3 pts · 3.3 reb · 2.7 ast Score 39
G M. Conner TR7.8 pts · 3.4 reb · 6.2 ast Score 19
HAWSmall
G I. Kerr6.6 pts · 2.5 reb · 1.3 ast Score 38
G B. McCreesh TR7.4 pts · 3.1 reb · 1.6 ast Score 40
HAWSmall
F Z. Davidson TR12.9 pts · 4.7 reb · 0.9 ast Score 69
F D. Goodwin TR4.3 pts · 2.3 reb · 0.6 ast Not ranked
No call
C B. Dengdit TR10.8 pts · 5 reb · 1.8 ast Score 62
F G. Erheriene TR0.8 pts · 0.7 reb · 0 ast Not ranked
No call
C H. Dan TR5.4 pts · 2.4 reb · 0.3 ast Score 36
Incarnate WordBetterHawai'i
UIW offense291st of 366 · -9.0
HAWBig
HAW defense150th of 366 · -3.3
UIW defense280th of 366 · -7.0
HAWBig
HAW offense136th of 366 · -3.9
Backcourt-5.7 · 3 players
HAWBig
Backcourt-2.6 · 2 players
Frontcourt-1.2 · 2 players
HAWSmall
Frontcourt+1.3 · 3 players
Bench-0.1 · 2 players
Even
Bench-0.4 · 2 players
Score, worst to bestUIW betterHAW betterTR transfer · NEW no Division I numbers
Projected starters: college teams publish no depth chart, so these come from minutes played, and a freshman or a new starter can change them. The score is the share of ranked players at the position that player is ahead of. Numbers are this season's once a player has 30 minutes, 2025-26's before that. Bench is the next five by minutes. Tap a player for the full numbers.

Depth chart

Projected rotation by position, starters outlined
Incarnate Word
Guards
I. Habib33 minM. Conner30 min · TRB. McCreesh28 min · TRD. Barbee2 minJ. ThomasNewD. CasonNew
Forwards
D. Goodwin14 min · TRG. Erheriene5 min · TRK. Spencer2 min · TRD. EmetuNewK. IoaneNewT. CollinsNew
Centers
C. PareNew
Hawai'i
Guards
C. Trujillo34 min · TRI. Kerr21 minT. CuffNewJ. MatingouNewL. AwanNewS. BelnapNew
Forwards
Z. Davidson24 min · TRM. Adams12 min · TRM. Joses9 min · TRK. HamptonNew
Centers
B. Dengdit23 min · TRH. Dan15 min · TR
In order of minutes, from rosters as of today. ESPN lists players only as guards, forwards or centers, and no injury report exists for college basketball, so a player who is out may still show here.
Showing 2025-26 until both teams have played this season.

Matchup stats

2025-26 · rank among 365 teams
Scoring
Shooting
Possessions
Defense
UIWHAW
Scoring
70.4 #275Points per game78.7 #86
1.07 #206Points per possession1.08 #186
65.4 #335Pace (possessions)73.0 #19
Shooting
50.2 #228Effective FG%52.0 #148
36.1 #543-point %31.7 #298
39.1 #1903-point attempt rate39.8 #175
34.0 #210Free throw rate41.4 #38
Possessions
17.1 #206Turnover rate18.8 #315
32.1 #120Offensive rebound rate31.3 #154
10.8 #342Assists per game13.3 #187
Defense
75.0 #189Points allowed71.2 #76
1.15 #331Points allowed per possession0.98 #10
54.5 #314Opponent effective FG%46.8 #19
34.4 #214Opponent 3-point %30.3 #13
15.8 #233Turnovers forced16.8 #167
68.0 #260Defensive rebound rate74.7 #11
5.1 #329Steals per game6.5 #175
2.4 #310Blocks per game4.0 #73
From the box scores. A longer bar is a better national rank, on every row; the better team's bar is solid. A green rank is near the top of Division I, a red one near the bottom. Pace and 3-point rate are styles, so they have no better side.

Incarnate Word

9-19 in 2025-26 overall · 7-15 in conference · Southland Conference

Last five, 2025-26
  • Lvs SF Austin68–76
  • Wvs Lamar72–60
  • L@ N'Western St49–54
  • W@ East Texas A&M82–73
  • Lvs LSU N Orleans64–78

A week or more of rest.

Hawai'i

22-9 in 2025-26 overall · 16-6 in conference · Mountain West Conference

Last five, 2025-26
  • Lvs Arkansas78–97
  • Wvs UC Irvine71–64
  • Wvs Fullerton78–63
  • Lvs Long Beach St75–84
  • Wvs UC Riverside93–74

A week or more of rest.