1. NCAAB
  2. Mon, Nov 16
  3. ALCN @ MD
NCAAB · Mon, Nov 16

Alcorn State Braves at Maryland Terrapins

XFINITY Center · at Maryland
#360ALCNAlcorn St
@
#50MDMaryland
LineNo line yet 
Total— 
ALCNThis seasonMD
0-0Record0-0
0-0ATS0-0
0-0O/U0-0

ATS = covered-didn’t-push · O/U = overs-unders

Model: projects MD 90–57 · win probability MD 100%
Pick this game
Your picksMy picks ›
Winner
Line
—
no line yet
Total
—
model 146.7
Model edge
—
No market line yet
Public
—
No split yet for this game
The model has not beaten the closing line: with an edge of 3 or more it went 409-367 in 2025-26. Model record

What could decide it: MD has more of the edges

ALCN 2, MD 6 · 2025-26 numbers until both teams have played three games
MDBig
ALCN offense vs MD defense
Offense 350th of 366 against a defense 34th, on the model’s ratings
MDBig
MD offense vs ALCN defense
Offense 63rd of 366 against a defense 354th, on the model’s ratings
Context
Schedule so far
ALCN has played the 266th-hardest schedule, MD the 28th. A record against a soft schedule means less
MDBig
Rebounding
Offensive rebound rate: ALCN 26.9%, MD 33.8%. Defensive: ALCN 64.5%, MD 70.9%
ALCNBig
Three-pointers
ALCN hits 33.3% and allows 33.0%; MD hits 31.7% and allows 36.3%. Threes are 33.7% and 46.9% of their shots
MDSmall
Free throws
Free throw rate: ALCN 31.8, MD 36.4. Allowed: ALCN 39.4, MD 35.8
ALCNSmall
Turnovers
Turnover rate: ALCN 19.6%, MD 18.6%. Forced: ALCN 18.1%, MD 14.9%
Context
Tempo
About 68 possessions: ALCN plays 69.7 a game (138th fastest), MD 67.0 (281st). Faster games mean more points
MDSmall
Who is back
Minutes back from last season: ALCN 11%, MD 47%. Transfers in: ALCN 5, MD 5. Early in a season, turnover makes teams harder to price
MDSmall
Home court
MD at home. This season: MD 0-0 at home, ALCN 0-0 away
Even
Shooting
Effective FG%: ALCN 47.7 and allows 55.0; MD 48.1 and allows 54.4
Sorted by how lopsided each matchup is, from national ranks. Reasons to look, not picks: the market already knows most of this.

Market

Open → current
Spread
Opening line not available
Total
 
Moneyline
—

Pre-game lines only (ESPN, DraftKings first). After tip-off the line shown is the closing line.

Model vs market

MarketModelModel edge
Spread—MD -32.3—
Total—146.7—
Projected score—ALCN 57.2 · MD 89.5

1st-half model

1st-half slate ›
ModelActual
1H spreadMD -19.1—
1H total68.6—
1H projected scoreALCN 24.8 · MD 43.8—
The 1st-half model is fitted from the full-game model and past halves. ESPN has no 1st-half lines for college games, so there is no market to compare it with.

Maryland has the better starters

Position by position: Alcorn St 0, Maryland 2, even 3
Alcorn StBetterMaryland
G T. Thomas9 pts · 3 reb · 1 ast Not ranked
No call
G M. McNair TR16.9 pts · 5.2 reb · 2.2 ast Score 84
G J. Felton TR1.7 pts · 1.3 reb · 0.3 ast Not ranked
No call
G A. Mills12.2 pts · 4.1 reb · 1.6 ast Score 89
G B. Thomas TR3 pts · 0.8 reb · 0.3 ast Not ranked
No call
G B. Boswell TR6.2 pts · 4.4 reb · 3.1 ast Score 70
F M. Taylor TR3.3 pts · 2 reb · 0.4 ast Score 4
MDBig
F P. Payne17.5 pts · 7.2 reb · 1.4 ast Score 100
C C. Richardson TR6.5 pts · 2.4 reb · 0 ast Score 45
MDBig
F T. Buljan TR13.1 pts · 10.3 reb · 1.5 ast Score 97
Alcorn StBetterMaryland
ALCN offense350th of 366 · -12.5
MDBig
MD defense34th of 366 · +3.3
ALCN defense354th of 366 · -9.9
MDBig
MD offense63rd of 366 · +2.4
Backcourt-1.9 · 3 players
MDBig
Backcourt+4.9 · 3 players
Frontcourt-1.8 · 2 players
MDBig
Frontcourt+11.4 · 2 players
Bench-0.6 · 1 player
ALCNSmall
Bench-2.3 · 5 players
Score, worst to bestALCN betterMD betterTR transfer · NEW no Division I numbers
Projected starters: college teams publish no depth chart, so these come from minutes played, and a freshman or a new starter can change them. The score is the share of ranked players at the position that player is ahead of. Numbers are this season's once a player has 30 minutes, 2025-26's before that. Bench is the next five by minutes. Tap a player for the full numbers.

Depth chart

Projected rotation by position, starters outlined
Alcorn St
Guards
T. Thomas22 minJ. Felton14 min · TRB. Thomas7 min · TRS. SunderlandNewJ. PowellNewJ. CraineNew
Forwards
M. Taylor14 min · TRJ. Walker5 min · TRB. CannonNewN. ThomasNew
Centers
C. Richardson15 min · TRA. TokpahNew
Maryland
Guards
M. McNair37 min · TRA. Mills27 minB. Boswell27 min · TRD. Wagner24 min · TRM. Jabriel20 minG. Turkson11 min
Forwards
P. Payne27 minT. Buljan26 min · TRR. Jennings13 min · TRA. BrownNewB. OladotunNewA. TambedouNew
Centers
A. K'MedehoutoNew
In order of minutes, from rosters as of today. ESPN lists players only as guards, forwards or centers, and no injury report exists for college basketball, so a player who is out may still show here.
Showing 2025-26 until both teams have played this season.

Matchup stats

2025-26 · rank among 365 teams
Scoring
Shooting
Possessions
Defense
ALCNMD
Scoring
66.9 #335Points per game69.7 #291
0.96 #352Points per possession1.04 #270
69.7 #138Pace (possessions)67.0 #281
Shooting
47.7 #320Effective FG%48.1 #311
33.3 #2093-point %31.7 #293
33.7 #3033-point attempt rate46.9 #35
31.8 #259Free throw rate36.4 #142
Possessions
19.6 #340Turnover rate18.6 #300
26.9 #297Offensive rebound rate33.8 #73
11.1 #333Assists per game10.4 #351
Defense
80.2 #322Points allowed76.6 #232
1.15 #324Points allowed per possession1.14 #312
55.0 #330Opponent effective FG%54.4 #312
33.0 #120Opponent 3-point %36.3 #317
18.1 #92Turnovers forced14.9 #294
64.5 #347Defensive rebound rate70.9 #111
7.7 #63Steals per game4.8 #345
3.4 #162Blocks per game2.9 #237
From the box scores. A longer bar is a better national rank, on every row; the better team's bar is solid. A green rank is near the top of Division I, a red one near the bottom. Pace and 3-point rate are styles, so they have no better side.

Alcorn St

9-23 in 2025-26 overall · 8-12 in conference · Southwestern Athletic Conference

Last five, 2025-26
  • Lvs Prairie View56–65
  • Wvs Alabama St77–65
  • Lvs AR-Pine Bluff48–83
  • Wvs Miss Valley St67–64
  • L@ Prairie View51–72

A week or more of rest.

Maryland

12-21 in 2025-26 overall · 5-17 in conference · Big Ten Conference

Last five, 2025-26
  • Lvs Iowa64–75
  • Wvs Oregon70–60
  • Lvs Illinois72–78
  • L@ Wisconsin45–78
  • Lvs Rutgers65–69

A week or more of rest.