1. NCAAB
  2. Mon, Nov 16
  3. IONA @ UMBC
NCAAB · Mon, Nov 16

Iona Gaels at UMBC Retrievers

Chesapeake Employers Insurance Arena · at UMBC
#232IONAIona
@
#264UMBCUMBC
LineNo line yet 
Total— 
IONAThis seasonUMBC
0-0Record0-0
0-0ATS0-0
0-0O/U0-0

ATS = covered-didn’t-push · O/U = overs-unders

Model: projects UMBC 74–72 · win probability UMBC 54%
Pick this game
Your picksMy picks ›
Winner
Line
—
no line yet
Total
—
model 145.9
Model edge
—
No market line yet
Public
—
No split yet for this game
The model has not beaten the closing line: with an edge of 3 or more it went 409-367 in 2025-26. Model record

What could decide it: UMBC has more of the edges

IONA 1, UMBC 4 · 2025-26 numbers until both teams have played three games
UMBCSmall
Free throws
Free throw rate: IONA 29.3, UMBC 34.1. Allowed: IONA 28.8, UMBC 25.7
Context
Tempo
About 68 possessions: IONA plays 69.8 a game (129th fastest), UMBC 67.0 (278th). Faster games mean more points
UMBCSmall
Rebounding
Offensive rebound rate: IONA 27.8%, UMBC 24.9%. Defensive: IONA 68.8%, UMBC 74.2%
UMBCSmall
Home court
UMBC at home. This season: UMBC 0-0 at home, IONA 0-0 away
IONASmall
UMBC offense vs IONA defense
Offense 255th of 366 against a defense 204th, on the model’s ratings
UMBCSmall
Turnovers
Turnover rate: IONA 17.2%, UMBC 14.1%. Forced: IONA 16.6%, UMBC 15.1%
Even
Who is back
Minutes back from last season: IONA 31%, UMBC 11%. Transfers in: IONA 5, UMBC 2. Early in a season, turnover makes teams harder to price
Even
Shooting
Effective FG%: IONA 51.9 and allows 48.9; UMBC 54.1 and allows 49.4
Even
IONA offense vs UMBC defense
Offense 262nd of 366 against a defense 279th, on the model’s ratings
Context
Schedule so far
IONA has played the 326th-hardest schedule, UMBC the 342nd. A record against a soft schedule means less
Even
Three-pointers
IONA hits 35.1% and allows 30.6%; UMBC hits 36.1% and allows 32.7%. Threes are 45.9% and 38.8% of their shots
Sorted by how lopsided each matchup is, from national ranks. Reasons to look, not picks: the market already knows most of this.

Market

Open → current
Spread
Opening line not available
Total
 
Moneyline
—

Pre-game lines only (ESPN, DraftKings first). After tip-off the line shown is the closing line.

Model vs market

MarketModelModel edge
Spread—UMBC -1.2—
Total—145.9—
Projected score—IONA 72.4 · UMBC 73.6

1st-half model

1st-half slate ›
ModelActual
1H spreadUMBC -0.6—
1H total68.3—
1H projected scoreIONA 33.8 · UMBC 34.4—
The 1st-half model is fitted from the full-game model and past halves. ESPN has no 1st-half lines for college games, so there is no market to compare it with.

Iona has the better starters

Position by position: Iona 2, UMBC 1, even 2
IonaBetterUMBC
G K. Vanderhorst TR9.3 pts · 2.7 reb · 2.8 ast Score 44
UMBCSmall
G F. Burton TR14.9 pts · 3.1 reb · 2.9 ast Score 63
G M. Kheil TR9.2 pts · 2.3 reb · 1.2 ast Score 17
IONASmall
G A. Cross TR3.2 pts · 1.5 reb · 0.3 ast Score 1
G K. Akametu11 pts · 5 reb · 0.9 ast Score 53
No call
G D. Ceaser4.3 pts · 1 reb · 0.3 ast Not ranked
F A. Disu TR11 pts · 5.1 reb · 0.9 ast Score 50
IONASmall
F R. Jacobs4.2 pts · 3.6 reb · 0.6 ast Score 24
F A. Fall2.7 pts · 4.1 reb · 1.1 ast Score 3
No call
F R. Ciunys NEWNo Division I numbers yet Not ranked
IonaBetterUMBC
IONA offense262nd of 366 · -8.0
Even
UMBC defense279th of 366 · -7.0
IONA defense204th of 366 · -5.0
Even
UMBC offense255th of 366 · -7.8
Backcourt-4.4 · 3 players
UMBCSmall
Backcourt-2.9 · 3 players
Frontcourt-3.0 · 2 players
UMBCSmall
Frontcourt-1.0 · 2 players
Bench-0.9 · 4 players
No call
BenchNo numbers yet
Score, worst to bestIONA betterUMBC betterTR transfer · NEW no Division I numbers
Projected starters: college teams publish no depth chart, so these come from minutes played, and a freshman or a new starter can change them. The score is the share of ranked players at the position that player is ahead of. Numbers are this season's once a player has 30 minutes, 2025-26's before that. Bench is the next five by minutes. Tap a player for the full numbers.

Depth chart

Projected rotation by position, starters outlined
Iona
Guards
K. Vanderhorst30 min · TRM. Kheil30 min · TRK. Akametu24 minO. Hourruitiner2 minP. LefasNewD. DoyleNew
Forwards
A. Disu28 min · TRA. Fall19 minL. Jungers16 minK. Mitchell11 min · TRS. Ibine Ayo8 min · TRO. OdutayoNew
UMBC
Guards
F. Burton32 min · TRA. Cross16 min · TRD. Ceaser8 minJ. RisticNewJ. ReynoldsNewT. SlatingNew
Forwards
R. Jacobs15 minR. CiunysNewA. BarryNewJ. NdongNewS. HuanNew
In order of minutes, from rosters as of today. ESPN lists players only as guards, forwards or centers, and no injury report exists for college basketball, so a player who is out may still show here.
Showing 2025-26 until both teams have played this season.

Matchup stats

2025-26 · rank among 365 teams
Scoring
Shooting
Possessions
Defense
IONAUMBC
Scoring
73.8 #206Points per game75.7 #149
1.06 #228Points per possession1.13 #85
69.8 #129Pace (possessions)67.0 #278
Shooting
51.9 #149Effective FG%54.1 #64
35.1 #1053-point %36.1 #55
45.9 #493-point attempt rate38.8 #195
29.3 #326Free throw rate34.1 #205
Possessions
17.2 #220Turnover rate14.1 #25
27.8 #274Offensive rebound rate24.9 #342
14.0 #147Assists per game11.9 #291
Defense
73.1 #136Points allowed68.5 #41
1.05 #85Points allowed per possession1.02 #46
48.9 #64Opponent effective FG%49.4 #79
30.6 #25Opponent 3-point %32.7 #98
16.6 #180Turnovers forced15.1 #283
68.8 #212Defensive rebound rate74.2 #18
6.6 #159Steals per game4.9 #338
3.0 #227Blocks per game2.4 #314
From the box scores. A longer bar is a better national rank, on every row; the better team's bar is solid. A green rank is near the top of Division I, a red one near the bottom. Pace and 3-point rate are styles, so they have no better side.

Iona

18-14 in 2025-26 overall · 10-11 in conference · Metro Conference

Last five, 2025-26
  • Lvs Sacred Heart80–91
  • W@ Manhattan69–65
  • Wvs Rider80–58
  • L@ Merrimack86–88
  • Wvs Saint Peter's72–64

A week or more of rest.

UMBC

22-9 in 2025-26 overall · 17-2 in conference · America East Conference

Last five, 2025-26
  • Lvs Howard83–86
  • Wvs Vermont74–59
  • Wvs UMass Lowell91–69
  • Wvs New Hampshire84–69
  • W@ NJIT91–52

A week or more of rest.