1. NCAAB
  2. Wed, Nov 11
  3. BCU @ SDSU
NCAAB · Wed, Nov 11

Bethune-Cookman Wildcats at San Diego State Aztecs

Viejas Arena · at San Diego St
#202BCUBethune
@
#75SDSUSan Diego St
LineNo line yet 
Total— 
BCUThis seasonSDSU
0-0Record0-0
0-0ATS0-0
0-0O/U0-0

ATS = covered-didn’t-push · O/U = overs-unders

Model: projects SDSU 84–66 · win probability SDSU 94%
Pick this game
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Winner
Line
—
no line yet
Total
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model 150.3
Model edge
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No market line yet
Public
—
No split yet for this game
The model has not beaten the closing line: with an edge of 3 or more it went 409-367 in 2025-26. Model record

What could decide it: SDSU has more of the edges

BCU 0, SDSU 5 · 2025-26 numbers until both teams have played three games
Context
Schedule so far
BCU has played the 244th-hardest schedule, SDSU the 80th. A record against a soft schedule means less
SDSUBig
Turnovers
Turnover rate: BCU 19.2%, SDSU 17.2%. Forced: BCU 15.8%, SDSU 20.2%
SDSUBig
SDSU offense vs BCU defense
Offense 86th of 366 against a defense 218th, on the model’s ratings
SDSUBig
BCU offense vs SDSU defense
Offense 188th of 366 against a defense 70th, on the model’s ratings
SDSUSmall
Shooting
Effective FG%: BCU 51.0 and allows 49.7; SDSU 52.7 and allows 48.2
SDSUSmall
Home court
SDSU at home. This season: SDSU 0-0 at home, BCU 0-0 away
Context
Tempo
About 71 possessions: BCU plays 71.8 a game (43rd fastest), SDSU 70.6 (89th). Faster games mean more points
Even
Three-pointers
BCU hits 33.0% and allows 32.9%; SDSU hits 34.5% and allows 33.6%. Threes are 29.7% and 33.8% of their shots
Even
Free throws
Free throw rate: BCU 40.9, SDSU 39.0. Allowed: BCU 38.6, SDSU 38.5
Even
Who is back
Minutes back from last season: BCU 25%, SDSU 20%. Transfers in: BCU 9, SDSU 4. Early in a season, turnover makes teams harder to price
Even
Rebounding
Offensive rebound rate: BCU 30.1%, SDSU 29.5%. Defensive: BCU 68.3%, SDSU 68.9%
Sorted by how lopsided each matchup is, from national ranks. Reasons to look, not picks: the market already knows most of this.

Market

Open → current
Spread
Opening line not available
Total
 
Moneyline
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Pre-game lines only (ESPN, DraftKings first). After tip-off the line shown is the closing line.

Model vs market

MarketModelModel edge
Spread—SDSU -17.7—
Total—150.3—
Projected score—BCU 66.3 · SDSU 84

1st-half model

1st-half slate ›
ModelActual
1H spreadSDSU -10.4—
1H total70.3—
1H projected scoreBCU 29.9 · SDSU 40.3—
The 1st-half model is fitted from the full-game model and past halves. ESPN has no 1st-half lines for college games, so there is no market to compare it with.

San Diego St has the better starters

Position by position: Bethune 0, San Diego St 2, even 3
BethuneBetterSan Diego St
G K. Branch TR11.7 pts · 2.6 reb · 1.4 ast Score 24
SDSUBig
G C. Gladden TR14.6 pts · 3.2 reb · 4.5 ast Score 67
G J. Morris TR11.2 pts · 2.5 reb · 2.9 ast Score 49
SDSUBig
G N. Anderson TR16 pts · 4.3 reb · 1.1 ast Score 95
G J. Jones TR9.8 pts · 3.5 reb · 2.4 ast Score 43
Even
G I. Sy TR10 pts · 4.6 reb · 1.7 ast Score 57
F Q. Heady10.2 pts · 3.8 reb · 1.2 ast Score 55
Even
G E. Harrington7.9 pts · 1.5 reb · 2.2 ast Score 63
F D. Johnson TR10 pts · 5 reb · 0.6 ast Score 52
No call
F B. Cherry TR15.3 pts · 6.8 reb · 1 ast Not ranked
BethuneBetterSan Diego St
BCU offense188th of 366 · -5.8
SDSUSmall
SDSU defense70th of 366 · +0.8
BCU defense218th of 366 · -5.7
SDSUBig
SDSU offense86th of 366 · +0.3
Backcourt-4.2 · 3 players
SDSUBig
Backcourt+3.9 · 4 players
Frontcourt-0.3 · 2 players
Even
Frontcourt-0.4 · 1 player
Bench-1.6 · 5 players
SDSUSmall
Bench+0.9 · 3 players
Score, worst to bestBCU betterSDSU betterTR transfer · NEW no Division I numbers
Projected starters: college teams publish no depth chart, so these come from minutes played, and a freshman or a new starter can change them. The score is the share of ranked players at the position that player is ahead of. Numbers are this season's once a player has 30 minutes, 2025-26's before that. Bench is the next five by minutes. Tap a player for the full numbers.

Depth chart

Projected rotation by position, starters outlined
Bethune
Guards
K. Branch30 min · TRJ. Morris30 min · TRJ. Jones28 min · TRM. Jordan13 min · TRK. Patton8 min · TRK. MurphyNew
Forwards
Q. Heady26 minD. Johnson26 min · TRD. Perez-Rouzan24 minV. Boskovic21 min · TRI. Ezuma8 min · TRJ. SmithNew
Centers
M. Martinez16 min · TR
San Diego St
Guards
C. Gladden34 min · TRN. Anderson30 min · TRI. Sy28 min · TRE. Harrington21 minR. Gonzales2 minL. DavisNew
Forwards
B. Cherry29 min · TRT. Simmons14 minT. Majak3 minS. MashebinuNewL. SkoricNewL. VinciniNew
In order of minutes, from rosters as of today. ESPN lists players only as guards, forwards or centers, and no injury report exists for college basketball, so a player who is out may still show here.
Showing 2025-26 until both teams have played this season.

Matchup stats

2025-26 · rank among 365 teams
Scoring
Shooting
Possessions
Defense
BCUSDSU
Scoring
74.5 #175Points per game76.8 #120
1.04 #273Points per possession1.09 #159
71.8 #43Pace (possessions)70.6 #89
Shooting
51.0 #195Effective FG%52.7 #116
33.0 #2303-point %34.5 #144
29.7 #3533-point attempt rate33.8 #301
40.9 #48Free throw rate39.0 #81
Possessions
19.2 #329Turnover rate17.2 #224
30.1 #194Offensive rebound rate29.5 #222
13.3 #195Assists per game14.6 #110
Defense
77.5 #251Points allowed71.3 #84
1.08 #157Points allowed per possession1.01 #31
49.7 #88Opponent effective FG%48.2 #41
32.9 #112Opponent 3-point %33.6 #164
15.8 #229Turnovers forced20.2 #19
68.3 #242Defensive rebound rate68.9 #208
6.8 #147Steals per game7.7 #62
4.5 #34Blocks per game4.6 #27
From the box scores. A longer bar is a better national rank, on every row; the better team's bar is solid. A green rank is near the top of Division I, a red one near the bottom. Pace and 3-point rate are styles, so they have no better side.

Bethune

16-15 in 2025-26 overall · 14-5 in conference · Southwestern Athletic Conference

Last five, 2025-26
  • Lvs Prairie View67–71
  • L@ Florida A&M77–81
  • W@ Southern82–79
  • W@ Grambling76–71
  • Wvs Alabama A&M85–76

A week or more of rest.

San Diego St

21-11 in 2025-26 overall · 16-7 in conference · Pac-12 Conference

Last five, 2025-26
  • Lvs Utah State62–73
  • Wvs New Mexico64–62
  • Wvs Colorado St71–62
  • Wvs UNLV89–86
  • L@ Boise St77–86

A week or more of rest.