Frontwave Arena · Neutral site
LineNo line yet
Total—
 SDSU | This season | NMSU |
|---|---|---|
| 0-0 | Record | 0-0 |
| 0-0 | ATS | 0-0 |
| 0-0 | O/U | 0-0 |
ATS = covered-didn’t-push · O/U = overs-unders
Model: projects SDSU 79–69 · win probability SDSU 79%
Pick this game
Your picksMy picks ›
Winner
Line
—
no line yet
Total
—
model 148.0
Model edge
—
No market line yet
Public
—
No split yet for this game
The model has not beaten the closing line: with an edge of 3 or more it went 409-367 in 2025-26. Model record
What could decide it: SDSU has more of the edges
SDSU 4, NMSU 1 · 2025-26 numbers until both teams have played three games
SDSUSmallShooting
Effective FG%: SDSU 52.7 and allows 48.2; NMSU 48.5 and allows 48.7
Context
Schedule so far
SDSU has played the 80th-hardest schedule, NMSU the 174th. A record against a soft schedule means less
SDSUSmallFree throws
Free throw rate: SDSU 39.0, NMSU 34.9. Allowed: SDSU 38.5, NMSU 44.2
SDSUSmallNMSU offense vs SDSU defense
Offense 151st of 366 against a defense 70th, on the model’s ratings
NMSUSmallRebounding
Offensive rebound rate: SDSU 29.5%, NMSU 32.5%. Defensive: SDSU 68.9%, NMSU 69.7%
Context
Tempo
About 69 possessions: SDSU plays 70.6 a game (89th fastest), NMSU 68.1 (224th). Faster games mean more points
SDSUSmallTurnovers
Turnover rate: SDSU 17.2%, NMSU 15.0%. Forced: SDSU 20.2%, NMSU 14.7%
Even
SDSU offense vs NMSU defense
Offense 86th of 366 against a defense 125th, on the model’s ratings
Even
Three-pointers
SDSU hits 34.5% and allows 33.6%; NMSU hits 32.4% and allows 32.4%. Threes are 33.8% and 38.7% of their shots
Context
Neutral floor
No home court: the model takes it out of the line
Even
Who is back
Minutes back from last season: SDSU 20%, NMSU 22%. Transfers in: SDSU 4, NMSU 6. Early in a season, turnover makes teams harder to price
Market
Open → current
Spread
Open—
no open
Now—
Opening line not available
Total
Open—
no open
Now—
Moneyline
—
Pre-game lines only (ESPN, DraftKings first). After tip-off the line shown is the closing line.
Model vs market
| Market | Model | Model edge | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Spread | — | SDSU -9.3 | — |
| Total | — | 148.0 | — |
| Projected score | — | SDSU 78.6 · NMSU 69.3 |
1st-half model
| Model | Actual | |
|---|---|---|
| 1H spread | SDSU -5.7 | — |
| 1H total | 69.2 | — |
| 1H projected score | SDSU 37.4 · NMSU 31.8 | — |
Showing 2025-26 until both teams have played this season.
Last 10 games
2025-26
| Straight up | Spread | Over / under | |
|---|---|---|---|
| SDSU | 5-5 50% | 3-7 30% | 5-5 50% |
| NMSU | 5-5 50% | 5-5 50% | 6-4 60% |
ATS History · 2025-26
WwinLloss·Wats winLats lossPpush·Owent over the totalUwent under the total
San Diego St
32 games played
Straight up
21-11
66% wins
Against the spread
15-17
47% covers · avg −0.6 pts vs the line
Over / Under
15-17
47% overs · avg +4.6 pts vs the total
Game by game: lines, results and totals
Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total
| Date | Opp | Result | Line | ATS | Total | O/U |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 4 | vs LBSU | W 77-45 | -25.5 | W +6.5 | 135.5 | U 122 |
| Nov 9 | vs IDST | W 73-57 | -21.5 | L −5.5 | 135.5 | U 130 |
| Nov 18 | vs TROY | L 107-108 | -14.5 | L −15.5 | 137.5 | O 215 |
| Nov 24 | vs MICH | L 54-94 | +6.5 | L −33.5 | 148.5 | U 148 |
| Nov 25 | vs ORE | W 97-80 | +2.5 | W +19.5 | 141.5 | O 177 |
| Nov 26 | vs BAY | L 81-91 | +2.5 | L −7.5 | 148.5 | O 172 |
| Dec 3 | vs UVU | W 77-66 | -8.5 | W +2.5 | 144.5 | U 143 |
| Dec 10 | vs LAM | W 89-71 | -17.5 | W +0.5 | 135.5 | O 160 |
| Dec 17 | vs AF | W 81-58 | -24.5 | L −1.5 | 135.5 | O 139 |
| Dec 20 | vs ARIZ | L 45-68 | +13.5 | L −9.5 | 153.5 | U 113 |
| Dec 30 | @ SJSU | W 81-68 | -11.5 | W +1.5 | 141.5 | O 149 |
| Jan 3 | vs BOIS | W 110-107 | -4.5 | L −1.5 | 138.5 | O 217 |
| Jan 6 | @ NEV | W 73-68 | +1.5 | W +6.5 | 141.5 | U 141 |
| Jan 10 | vs FRES | W 71-52 | -14.5 | W +4.5 | 146.5 | U 123 |
| Jan 14 | @ WYO | W 74-57 | -1.5 | W +15.5 | 148.5 | U 131 |
| Jan 17 | vs UNM | W 83-79 | -5.5 | L −1.5 | 148.5 | O 162 |
| Jan 21 | @ GCU | L 69-70 | -1.5 | L −2.5 | 145.5 | U 139 |
| Jan 24 | @ UNLV | W 82-71 | -3.5 | W +7.5 | 149.5 | O 153 |
| Jan 28 | vs CSU | W 73-50 | -9.5 | W +13.5 | 139.5 | U 123 |
| Jan 31 | @ USU | L 66-71 | +6.5 | W +1.5 | 147.5 | U 137 |
| Feb 3 | vsWYO | W 72-63 | -12.5 | L −3.5 | 141.5 | U 135 |
| Feb 7 | @AF | W 88-54 | -22.5 | W +11.5 | 139.5 | O 142 |
| Feb 14 | vsNEV | W 71-57 | -7.5 | W +6.5 | 139.5 | U 128 |
| Feb 17 | vsGCU | L 63-73 | -7.5 | L −17.5 | 139.5 | U 136 |
| Feb 21 | @CSU | L 74-83 | -3.5 | L −12.5 | 139.5 | O 157 |
| Feb 25 | vsUSU | W 89-72 | +1.5 | W +18.5 | 146.5 | O 161 |
| Feb 28 | @UNM | L 76-81 | +1.5 | L −3.5 | 150.5 | O 157 |
| Mar 3 | @BOIS | L 77-86 | +1.5 | L −7.5 | 143.5 | O 163 |
| Mar 6 | vsUNLV | W 89-86 | -9.5 | L −6.5 | 153.5 | O 175 |
| Mar 12 | vsCSU | W 71-62 | -6.5 | W +2.5 | 142.5 | U 133 |
| Mar 13 | vsUNM | W 64-62 | -2.5 | L −0.5 | 150.5 | U 126 |
| Mar 14 | vsUSU | L 62-73 | +2.5 | L −8.5 | 145.5 | U 135 |
Day
Opp
Result
MissedCovered
Margin
4
vsLBSU
LBSUW 77-45
+6.5
9
vsIDST
IDSTW 73-57
−5.5
18
vsTROY
TROYL 107-108
−15.5
24
vsMICH
MICHL 54-94
−33.5
25
vsORE
OREW 97-80
+19.5
26
vsBAY
BAYL 81-91
−7.5
3
vsUVU
UVUW 77-66
+2.5
10
vsLAM
LAMW 89-71
+0.5
17
vsAF
AFW 81-58
−1.5
20
vsARIZ
ARIZL 45-68
−9.5
30
@SJSU
SJSUW 81-68
+1.5
3
vsBOIS
BOISW 110-107
−1.5
6
@NEV
NEVW 73-68
+6.5
10
vsFRES
FRESW 71-52
+4.5
14
@WYO
WYOW 74-57
+15.5
17
vsUNM
UNMW 83-79
−1.5
21
@GCU
GCUL 69-70
−2.5
24
@UNLV
UNLVW 82-71
+7.5
28
vsCSU
CSUW 73-50
+13.5
31
@USU
USUL 66-71
+1.5
3
vsWYO
WYOW 72-63
−3.5
7
@AF
AFW 88-54
+11.5
14
vsNEV
NEVW 71-57
+6.5
17
vsGCU
GCUL 63-73
−17.5
21
@CSU
CSUL 74-83
−12.5
25
vsUSU
USUW 89-72
+18.5
28
@UNM
UNML 76-81
−3.5
3
@BOIS
BOISL 77-86
−7.5
6
vsUNLV
UNLVW 89-86
−6.5
12
vsCSU
CSUW 71-62
+2.5
13
vsUNM
UNMW 64-62
−0.5
14
vsUSU
USUL 62-73
−8.5
covered 15didn’t cover 17avg −0.6 ptslonger = bigger margin
Day
Opp
Result
UnderOver
Margin
4
vsLBSU
LBSUW 77-45
−13.5
9
vsIDST
IDSTW 73-57
−5.5
18
vsTROY
TROYL 107-108
+77.5
24
vsMICH
MICHL 54-94
−0.5
25
vsORE
OREW 97-80
+35.5
26
vsBAY
BAYL 81-91
+23.5
3
vsUVU
UVUW 77-66
−1.5
10
vsLAM
LAMW 89-71
+24.5
17
vsAF
AFW 81-58
+3.5
20
vsARIZ
ARIZL 45-68
−40.5
30
@SJSU
SJSUW 81-68
+7.5
3
vsBOIS
BOISW 110-107
+78.5
6
@NEV
NEVW 73-68
−0.5
10
vsFRES
FRESW 71-52
−23.5
14
@WYO
WYOW 74-57
−17.5
17
vsUNM
UNMW 83-79
+13.5
21
@GCU
GCUL 69-70
−6.5
24
@UNLV
UNLVW 82-71
+3.5
28
vsCSU
CSUW 73-50
−16.5
31
@USU
USUL 66-71
−10.5
3
vsWYO
WYOW 72-63
−6.5
7
@AF
AFW 88-54
+2.5
14
vsNEV
NEVW 71-57
−11.5
17
vsGCU
GCUL 63-73
−3.5
21
@CSU
CSUL 74-83
+17.5
25
vsUSU
USUW 89-72
+14.5
28
@UNM
UNML 76-81
+6.5
3
@BOIS
BOISL 77-86
+19.5
6
vsUNLV
UNLVW 89-86
+21.5
12
vsCSU
CSUW 71-62
−9.5
13
vsUNM
UNMW 64-62
−24.5
14
vsUSU
USUL 62-73
−10.5
over 15under 17avg +4.6 ptslonger = bigger margin
New Mexico St
29 games played
Straight up
13-16
45% wins
Against the spread
14-15
48% covers · avg −1.4 pts vs the line
Over / Under
16-13
55% overs · avg +2.8 pts vs the total
Game by game: lines, results and totals
Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total
| Date | Opp | Result | Line | ATS | Total | O/U |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 15 | vsUNM | W 76-68 | +3.5 | W +11.5 | 139.5 | O 144 |
| Nov 21 | vs SAM | W 81-72 | -8.5 | W +0.5 | 145.5 | O 153 |
| Nov 25 | vs UCI | W 57-45 | +2.5 | W +14.5 | 139.5 | U 102 |
| Nov 26 | vs GAST | W 77-58 | -12.5 | W +6.5 | 136.5 | U 135 |
| Dec 2 | vs USA | L 75-77 | -2.5 | L −4.5 | 135.5 | O 152 |
| Dec 6 | @ ACU | L 69-77 | -1.5 | L −9.5 | 131.5 | O 146 |
| Dec 13 | vs TLSA | L 70-83 | +4.5 | L −8.5 | 146.5 | O 153 |
| Dec 21 | vs SHSU | W 87-78 | -5.5 | W +3.5 | 153.5 | O 165 |
| Jan 2 | @ FIU | L 74-89 | -1.5 | L −16.5 | 157.5 | O 163 |
| Jan 4 | @ MOST | L 82-89 | +1.5 | L −5.5 | 134.5 | O 171 |
| Jan 8 | vs WKU | W 80-64 | -2.5 | W +13.5 | 154.5 | U 144 |
| Jan 10 | vs MTSU | L 55-59 | -3.5 | L −7.5 | 144.5 | U 114 |
| Jan 15 | @ LIB | L 71-73 | +8.5 | W +6.5 | 145.5 | U 144 |
| Jan 17 | @ DEL | W 97-68 | -4.5 | W +24.5 | 134.5 | O 165 |
| Jan 22 | vsMOST | L 75-84 | -6.5 | L −15.5 | 144.5 | O 159 |
| Jan 24 | vsFIU | L 78-81 | -7.5 | L −10.5 | 159.5 | U 159 |
| Jan 28 | vsDEL | L 64-73 | -13.5 | L −22.5 | 137.5 | U 137 |
| Jan 31 | @ KENN | L 53-76 | +3.5 | L −19.5 | 159.5 | U 129 |
| Feb 4 | @ LT | W 72-63 | +1.5 | W +10.5 | 135.5 | U 135 |
| Feb 7 | @ UTEP | L 88-91 | -1.5 | L −4.5 | 138.5 | O 179 |
| Feb 11 | vsLIB | L 75-77 | +3.5 | W +1.5 | 144.5 | O 152 |
| Feb 14 | @ JXST | W 79-70 | +1.5 | W +10.5 | 139.5 | O 149 |
| Feb 21 | vsUTEP | W 67-63 | -7.5 | L −3.5 | 142.5 | U 130 |
| Feb 26 | @WKU | L 70-93 | +4.5 | L −18.5 | 151.5 | O 163 |
| Feb 28 | @MTSU | L 85-86 | +5.5 | W +4.5 | 148.5 | O 171 |
| Mar 5 | vsJXST | W 77-75 | -6.5 | L −4.5 | 145.5 | O 152 |
| Mar 7 | vsKENN | W 79-76 | -1.5 | W +1.5 | 157.5 | U 155 |
| Mar 10 | vsJXST | W 68-63 | -1.5 | W +3.5 | 141.5 | U 131 |
| Mar 11 | vsSHSU | L 61-69 | +4.5 | L −3.5 | 154.5 | U 130 |
Day
Opp
Result
MissedCovered
Margin
15
vsUNM
UNMW 76-68
+11.5
21
vsSAM
SAMW 81-72
+0.5
25
vsUCI
UCIW 57-45
+14.5
26
vsGAST
GASTW 77-58
+6.5
2
vsUSA
USAL 75-77
−4.5
6
@ACU
ACUL 69-77
−9.5
13
vsTLSA
TLSAL 70-83
−8.5
21
vsSHSU
SHSUW 87-78
+3.5
2
@FIU
FIUL 74-89
−16.5
4
@MOST
MOSTL 82-89
−5.5
8
vsWKU
WKUW 80-64
+13.5
10
vsMTSU
MTSUL 55-59
−7.5
15
@LIB
LIBL 71-73
+6.5
17
@DEL
DELW 97-68
+24.5
22
vsMOST
MOSTL 75-84
−15.5
24
vsFIU
FIUL 78-81
−10.5
28
vsDEL
DELL 64-73
−22.5
31
@KENN
KENNL 53-76
−19.5
4
@LT
LTW 72-63
+10.5
7
@UTEP
UTEPL 88-91
−4.5
11
vsLIB
LIBL 75-77
+1.5
14
@JXST
JXSTW 79-70
+10.5
21
vsUTEP
UTEPW 67-63
−3.5
26
@WKU
WKUL 70-93
−18.5
28
@MTSU
MTSUL 85-86
+4.5
5
vsJXST
JXSTW 77-75
−4.5
7
vsKENN
KENNW 79-76
+1.5
10
vsJXST
JXSTW 68-63
+3.5
11
vsSHSU
SHSUL 61-69
−3.5
covered 14didn’t cover 15avg −1.4 ptslonger = bigger margin
Day
Opp
Result
UnderOver
Margin
15
vsUNM
UNMW 76-68
+4.5
21
vsSAM
SAMW 81-72
+7.5
25
vsUCI
UCIW 57-45
−37.5
26
vsGAST
GASTW 77-58
−1.5
2
vsUSA
USAL 75-77
+16.5
6
@ACU
ACUL 69-77
+14.5
13
vsTLSA
TLSAL 70-83
+6.5
21
vsSHSU
SHSUW 87-78
+11.5
2
@FIU
FIUL 74-89
+5.5
4
@MOST
MOSTL 82-89
+36.5
8
vsWKU
WKUW 80-64
−10.5
10
vsMTSU
MTSUL 55-59
−30.5
15
@LIB
LIBL 71-73
−1.5
17
@DEL
DELW 97-68
+30.5
22
vsMOST
MOSTL 75-84
+14.5
24
vsFIU
FIUL 78-81
−0.5
28
vsDEL
DELL 64-73
−0.5
31
@KENN
KENNL 53-76
−30.5
4
@LT
LTW 72-63
−0.5
7
@UTEP
UTEPL 88-91
+40.5
11
vsLIB
LIBL 75-77
+7.5
14
@JXST
JXSTW 79-70
+9.5
21
vsUTEP
UTEPW 67-63
−12.5
26
@WKU
WKUL 70-93
+11.5
28
@MTSU
MTSUL 85-86
+22.5
5
vsJXST
JXSTW 77-75
+6.5
7
vsKENN
KENNW 79-76
−2.5
10
vsJXST
JXSTW 68-63
−10.5
11
vsSHSU
SHSUL 61-69
−24.5
over 16under 13avg +2.8 ptslonger = bigger margin
Line = the team’s closing spread (negative = favored). ATS number = points beyond the line; total number = combined points.
San Diego St has the better starters
Position by position: San Diego St 3, New Mexico St 0, even 2
San Diego StBetterNew Mexico St
G C. Gladden TR14.6 pts · 3.2 reb · 4.5 ast
Score 67
←SDSUSmall
G J. Washington TR11.3 pts · 1.9 reb · 2.8 ast
Score 34
G N. Anderson TR16 pts · 4.3 reb · 1.1 ast
Score 95
←SDSUSmall
G G. Warren TR12.5 pts · 4.6 reb · 1.5 ast
Score 68
G I. Sy TR10 pts · 4.6 reb · 1.7 ast
Score 57
=Even
G D. Dudley TR14.2 pts · 2.8 reb · 1.8 ast
Score 65
G E. Harrington7.9 pts · 1.5 reb · 2.2 ast
Score 63
←SDSUSmall
F M. Lavrenov TR10.5 pts · 7.3 reb · 0.5 ast
Score 40
F B. Cherry TR15.3 pts · 6.8 reb · 1 ast
Not ranked
=No call
F J. Osborne6.3 pts · 4.8 reb · 0.6 ast
Score 42
San Diego StBetterNew Mexico St
SDSU offense86th of 366 · +0.3
=Even
NMSU defense125th of 366 · -2.3
SDSU defense70th of 366 · +0.8
←SDSUSmall
NMSU offense151st of 366 · -4.6
Backcourt+3.9 · 4 players
←SDSUBig
Backcourt-1.3 · 3 players
Frontcourt-0.4 · 1 player
←SDSUSmall
Frontcourt-1.5 · 2 players
Bench+0.9 · 3 players
←SDSUBig
Bench-2.2 · 3 players
Score, worst to bestSDSU betterNMSU betterTR transfer · NEW no Division I numbers
Depth chart
Projected rotation by position, starters outlined
San Diego StGuards
C. Gladden34 min · TRN. Anderson30 min · TRI. Sy28 min · TRE. Harrington21 minR. Gonzales2 minL. DavisNew
Forwards
B. Cherry29 min · TRT. Simmons14 minT. Majak3 minS. MashebinuNewL. SkoricNewL. VinciniNew
New Mexico StGuards
J. Washington35 min · TRG. Warren32 min · TRD. Dudley31 min · TRG. Pickens21 minK. RobinsonNewD. GrantNew
Forwards
M. Lavrenov28 min · TRJ. Osborne24 minS. Payne20 min · TRL. Levillain20 min · TRP. WoodsonNew
Centers
A. DiongueNew
Showing 2025-26 until both teams have played this season.
Matchup stats
2025-26 · rank among 365 teams
Scoring
Points per game
SDSU76.8 #120NMSU73.8 #207Points per possession
SDSU1.09 #159NMSU1.08 #179Pace (possessions)
SDSU70.6 #89NMSU68.1 #224Shooting
Effective FG%
SDSU52.7 #116NMSU48.5 #3023-point %
SDSU34.5 #144NMSU32.4 #2573-point attempt rate
SDSU33.8 #301NMSU38.7 #198Free throw rate
SDSU39.0 #81NMSU34.9 #186Possessions
Turnover rate
SDSU17.2 #224NMSU15.0 #66Offensive rebound rate
SDSU29.5 #222NMSU32.5 #105Assists per game
SDSU14.6 #110NMSU12.5 #250Defense
Points allowed
SDSU71.3 #84NMSU73.8 #150Points allowed per possession
SDSU1.01 #31NMSU1.08 #179Opponent effective FG%
SDSU48.2 #41NMSU48.7 #52Opponent 3-point %
SDSU33.6 #164NMSU32.4 #83Turnovers forced
SDSU20.2 #19NMSU14.7 #311Defensive rebound rate
SDSU68.9 #208NMSU69.7 #175Steals per game
SDSU7.7 #62NMSU5.7 #276Blocks per game
SDSU4.6 #27NMSU3.0 #221| SDSU | NMSU | |
|---|---|---|
| Scoring | ||
| 76.8 #120 | Points per game | 73.8 #207 |
| 1.09 #159 | Points per possession | 1.08 #179 |
| 70.6 #89 | Pace (possessions) | 68.1 #224 |
| Shooting | ||
| 52.7 #116 | Effective FG% | 48.5 #302 |
| 34.5 #144 | 3-point % | 32.4 #257 |
| 33.8 #301 | 3-point attempt rate | 38.7 #198 |
| 39.0 #81 | Free throw rate | 34.9 #186 |
| Possessions | ||
| 17.2 #224 | Turnover rate | 15.0 #66 |
| 29.5 #222 | Offensive rebound rate | 32.5 #105 |
| 14.6 #110 | Assists per game | 12.5 #250 |
| Defense | ||
| 71.3 #84 | Points allowed | 73.8 #150 |
| 1.01 #31 | Points allowed per possession | 1.08 #179 |
| 48.2 #41 | Opponent effective FG% | 48.7 #52 |
| 33.6 #164 | Opponent 3-point % | 32.4 #83 |
| 20.2 #19 | Turnovers forced | 14.7 #311 |
| 68.9 #208 | Defensive rebound rate | 69.7 #175 |
| 7.7 #62 | Steals per game | 5.7 #276 |
| 4.6 #27 | Blocks per game | 3.0 #221 |
San Diego St
21-11 in 2025-26 overall · 16-7 in conference · Pac-12 Conference
Last five, 2025-26
- Lvs Utah State62–73
- Wvs New Mexico64–62
- Wvs Colorado St71–62
- Wvs UNLV89–86
- L@ Boise St77–86
A week or more of rest.
New Mexico St
13-16 in 2025-26 overall · 9-13 in conference · Conference USA
Last five, 2025-26
- Lvs Sam Houston61–69
- Wvs Jax State68–63
- Wvs Kennesaw St79–76
- Wvs Jax State77–75
- L@ MTSU85–86
A week or more of rest.