Creighton Bluejays vs Iowa Hawkeyes: Model Line and Edge

Sun, Nov 15, 3:00 PM ETCasey's Center · Neutral site

#43IOWAIowa

LineNo line yet

Total—

Season records: Creighton and Iowa
CREI	This season	IOWA
0-0	Record	0-0
0-0	ATS	0-0
0-0	O/U	0-0

ATS = covered-didn’t-push · O/U = overs-unders

Model: projects IOWA 74–73 · win probability IOWA 55%

Pick this game

Your picksMy picks ›

Winner

Line

—

no line yet

Total

—

model 147.2

Model edge

—

No market line yet

Public

—

No split yet for this game

The model has not beaten the closing line: with an edge of 3 or more it went 409-367 in 2025-26. Model record

What could decide it: IOWA has more of the edges

CREI 1, IOWA 3 · 2025-26 numbers until both teams have played three games

IOWABig

Turnovers

Turnover rate: CREI 16.4%, IOWA 15.1%. Forced: CREI 13.7%, IOWA 20.3%

IOWASmall

Three-pointers

CREI hits 34.1% and allows 35.1%; IOWA hits 35.6% and allows 33.3%. Threes are 48.2% and 43.0% of their shots

Context

Tempo

About 66 possessions: CREI plays 68.9 a game (187th fastest), IOWA 63.0 (365th). Faster games mean more points

IOWASmall

Rebounding

Offensive rebound rate: CREI 26.9%, IOWA 30.2%. Defensive: CREI 70.5%, IOWA 70.8%

CREISmall

Free throws

Free throw rate: CREI 28.3, IOWA 35.1. Allowed: CREI 24.8, IOWA 38.5

Even

IOWA offense vs CREI defense

Offense 69th of 366 against a defense 43rd, on the model’s ratings

Even

Who is back

Minutes back from last season: CREI 53%, IOWA 61%. Transfers in: CREI 6, IOWA 2. Early in a season, turnover makes teams harder to price

Even

CREI offense vs IOWA defense

Offense 33rd of 366 against a defense 20th, on the model’s ratings

Context

Schedule so far

CREI has played the 40th-hardest schedule, IOWA the 30th. A record against a soft schedule means less

Context

Neutral floor

No home court: the model takes it out of the line

Even

Shooting

Effective FG%: CREI 53.0 and allows 51.1; IOWA 56.4 and allows 52.6

Sorted by how lopsided each matchup is, from national ranks. Reasons to look, not picks: the market already knows most of this.

Model vs market

	Market	Model	Model edge
Spread	—	IOWA -1.3	—
Total	—	147.2	—
Projected score	—	CREI 72.9 · IOWA 74.3

1st-half model

1st-half slate ›

	Model	Actual
1H spread	IOWA -0.7	—
1H total	68.8	—
1H projected score	CREI 34.1 · IOWA 34.8	—

The 1st-half model is fitted from the full-game model and past halves. ESPN has no 1st-half lines for college games, so there is no market to compare it with.

Showing 2025-26 until both teams have played this season.

ATS

2025-26 season

	Season	Cover	Neutral	Role
CREI LWLWL	11-23	32%	2-4	—
IOWA LWWWL	21-16	57%	5-3	—

Venue/role: CREI neutral site; IOWA neutral site. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

2025-26 season

	O-U	Over %	SU
CREI UUUUO	16-18	47%	16-18
IOWA OUUOU	20-17	54%	24-13

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Tap for the score and line.

Last 10 games

2025-26

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
CREI	3-7 30%	3-7 30%	5-5 50%
IOWA	5-5 50%	5-5 50%	4-6 40%

Wins-losses (pushes last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Next 3 games

With how the last meeting with each opponent went

Creighton

Date	Game	Last meeting
Nov 18	vs BCU	No recent meeting
Nov 24	vs MICH	No recent meeting
Dec 1	vs ORU	No recent meeting

Iowa

Date	Game	Last meeting
Nov 20	@ XAV	W81–62WU
Nov 24	vs UMBC	W103–81LO
Nov 28	vs PV	No recent meeting

Last meeting: result, against the spread, over / under. Hover a result for its date.

Recent meetings

Since 2021-22

CREI 1–0 IOWACREI leads · 1 game since 2021-22 · CREI 0-1 ATS

Date	Result	Line	Covered
Nov 14, 2023-24	IOWA 84 @ CREI 92	CREI -12.5	IOWA W

ATS History · 2025-26

WwinLloss·Wats winLats lossPpush·Owent over the totalUwent under the total

Creighton

34 games played

Straight up

16-18

47% wins

Against the spread

11-23

32% covers · avg −2.9 pts vs the line

Over / Under

16-18

47% overs · avg +0 pts vs the total

Straight up

16-1847%

W L W W L L W W L L W W W W L W L W L W L L L W L L W L L L W L W L

2 of last 4 wonno streak

Against the spread

11-2332%

L L W L L L W W L L W W W L W W L L L L L L L L L L W L L L W L W L

2 of last 4 coveredno streak

Over / Under

16-1847%

U U U U O U U O U U O U O O U O O O O O U O U U O O O U O U U U U O

1 of last 4 overno streak

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Nov 5	vsSDAK	W 92-76	-29.5	L −13.5	169.5	U 168
Nov 11	@GONZ	L 63-90	+12.5	L −14.5	164.5	U 153
Nov 14	vsUMES	W 84-45	-33.5	W +5.5	135.5	U 129
Nov 19	vsUND	W 75-60	-29.5	L −14.5	155.5	U 135
Nov 24	vsBAY	L 74-81	+3.5	L −3.5	154.5	O 155
Nov 25	vsISU	L 60-78	+9.5	L −8.5	152.5	U 138
Nov 27	vsORE	W 76-66	-2.5	W +7.5	150.5	U 142
Dec 2	vsNICH	W 96-76	-18.5	W +1.5	143.5	O 172
Dec 7	@NEB	L 50-71	+5.5	L −15.5	155.5	U 121
Dec 13	vsKSU	L 76-83	-4.5	L −11.5	159.5	U 159
Dec 17	@XAV	W 98-57	+2.5	W +43.5	151.5	O 155
Dec 20	vsMARQ	W 84-63	-6.5	W +14.5	151.5	U 147
Dec 22	vsUTU	W 92-69	-19.5	W +3.5	147.5	O 161
Dec 30	vsBTLR	W 89-85	-5.5	L −1.5	156.5	O 174
Jan 4	@HALL	L 54-56	+3.5	W +1.5	143.5	U 110
Jan 7	@VILL	W 76-72	+4.5	W +8.5	142.5	O 148
Jan 10	vsSJU	L 73-90	+2.5	L −14.5	152.5	O 163
Jan 13	vsGTWN	W 86-83	-8.5	L −5.5	147.5	O 169
Jan 16	@PROV	L 88-93	-2.5	L −7.5	161.5	O 181
Jan 21	vsXAV	W 94-93	-8.5	L −7.5	155.5	O 187
Jan 27	@MARQ	L 62-86	-1.5	L −25.5	154.5	U 148
Jan 31	vsCONN	L 58-85	+6.5	L −20.5	142.5	O 143
Feb 4	@GTWN	L 68-76	+1.5	L −6.5	146.5	U 144
Feb 7	vsHALL	W 69-68	-1.5	L −0.5	140.5	U 137
Feb 11	@DEP	L 71-72	-1.5	L −2.5	141.5	O 143
Feb 14	vsVILL	L 69-80	+1.5	L −9.5	145.5	O 149
Feb 18	@CONN	W 91-84	+15.5	W +22.5	143.5	O 175
Feb 21	@SJU	L 52-81	+12.5	L −16.5	156.5	U 133
Feb 25	vsDEP	L 71-72	-3.5	L −4.5	142.5	O 143
Feb 28	vsPROV	L 76-79	-3.5	L −6.5	166.5	U 155
Mar 4	@BTLR	W 76-59	+2.5	W +19.5	155.5	U 135
Mar 12	vsHALL	L 61-72	+2.5	L −8.5	136.5	U 133
Apr 2	vsRUTG	W 82-69	-4.5	W +8.5	151.5	U 151
Apr 4	vsWVU	L 70-87	+1.5	L −15.5	137.5	O 157

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

SDAK

W 92-76

−13.5

GONZ

L 63-90

−14.5

UMES

W 84-45

+5.5

UND

W 75-60

−14.5

BAY

L 74-81

−3.5

ISU

L 60-78

−8.5

ORE

W 76-66

+7.5

NICH

W 96-76

+1.5

NEB

L 50-71

−15.5

KSU

L 76-83

−11.5

XAV

W 98-57

+43.5

MARQ

W 84-63

+14.5

UTU

W 92-69

+3.5

BTLR

W 89-85

−1.5

HALL

L 54-56

+1.5

VILL

W 76-72

+8.5

SJU

L 73-90

−14.5

GTWN

W 86-83

−5.5

PROV

L 88-93

−7.5

XAV

W 94-93

−7.5

MARQ

L 62-86

−25.5

CONN

L 58-85

−20.5

GTWN

L 68-76

−6.5

HALL

W 69-68

−0.5

DEP

L 71-72

−2.5

VILL

L 69-80

−9.5

CONN

W 91-84

+22.5

SJU

L 52-81

−16.5

DEP

L 71-72

−4.5

PROV

L 76-79

−6.5

BTLR

W 76-59

+19.5

HALL

L 61-72

−8.5

RUTG

W 82-69

+8.5

WVU

L 70-87

−15.5

covered 11didn’t cover 23avg −2.9 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

SDAK

W 92-76

−1.5

GONZ

L 63-90

−11.5

UMES

W 84-45

−6.5

UND

W 75-60

−20.5

BAY

L 74-81

+0.5

ISU

L 60-78

−14.5

ORE

W 76-66

−8.5

NICH

W 96-76

+28.5

NEB

L 50-71

−34.5

KSU

L 76-83

−0.5

XAV

W 98-57

+3.5

MARQ

W 84-63

−4.5

UTU

W 92-69

+13.5

BTLR

W 89-85

+17.5

HALL

L 54-56

−33.5

VILL

W 76-72

+5.5

SJU

L 73-90

+10.5

GTWN

W 86-83

+21.5

PROV

L 88-93

+19.5

XAV

W 94-93

+31.5

MARQ

L 62-86

−6.5

CONN

L 58-85

+0.5

GTWN

L 68-76

−2.5

HALL

W 69-68

−3.5

DEP

L 71-72

+1.5

VILL

L 69-80

+3.5

CONN

W 91-84

+31.5

SJU

L 52-81

−23.5

DEP

L 71-72

+0.5

PROV

L 76-79

−11.5

BTLR

W 76-59

−20.5

HALL

L 61-72

−3.5

RUTG

W 82-69

−0.5

WVU

L 70-87

+19.5

over 16under 18avg +0 ptslonger = bigger margin

Iowa

37 games played

Straight up

24-13

65% wins

Against the spread

21-16

57% covers · avg +1.1 pts vs the line

Over / Under

20-17

54% overs · avg +0.6 pts vs the total

Straight up

24-1365%

W W W W W W W L W L W W W W L L L W W W W W W L L W L W L L L W L W W W L

3 of last 4 wonno streak

Against the spread

21-1657%

W L W W W W W L W W W W L W L L W W L L W W L L L W L W L W L L L W W W L

3 of last 4 coveredno streak

Over / Under

20-1754%

O U U O O O U U O U O U O U O O O U U O O O O O U U O U U U O O O U U O U

1 of last 4 overno streak

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Nov 4	vsRMU	W 101-69	-22.5	W +9.5	136.5	O 170
Nov 7	vsWIU	W 77-58	-30.5	L −11.5	145.5	U 135
Nov 14	vsXAV	W 81-62	-15.5	W +3.5	143.5	U 143
Nov 18	vsSEMO	W 99-70	-23.5	W +5.5	147.5	O 169
Nov 20	vsCHST	W 93-54	-31.5	W +7.5	142.5	O 147
Nov 25	vsMISS	W 74-69	-4.5	W +0.5	140.5	O 143
Nov 26	vsGCU	W 59-46	-8.5	W +4.5	143.5	U 105
Dec 2	@MSU	L 52-71	+5.5	L −13.5	133.5	U 123
Dec 6	vsMD	W 83-64	-10.5	W +8.5	137.5	O 147
Dec 11	@ISU	L 62-66	+11.5	W +7.5	141.5	U 128
Dec 14	vsWMU	W 91-51	-25.5	W +14.5	137.5	O 142
Dec 20	vsBUCK	W 94-39	-25.5	W +29.5	133.5	U 133
Dec 29	vsUML	W 90-62	-33.5	L −5.5	145.5	O 152
Jan 3	vsUCLA	W 74-61	-6.5	W +6.5	140.5	U 135
Jan 6	@MINN	L 67-70	-4.5	L −7.5	130.5	O 137
Jan 11	vsILL	L 69-75	+1.5	L −4.5	142.5	O 144
Jan 14	@PUR	L 72-79	+10.5	W +3.5	145.5	O 151
Jan 17	@IU	W 74-57	+3.5	W +20.5	146.5	U 131
Jan 20	vsRUTG	W 68-62	-17.5	L −11.5	140.5	U 130
Jan 28	vsUSC	W 73-72	-9.5	L −8.5	141.5	O 145
Feb 1	@ORE	W 84-66	-9.5	W +8.5	133.5	O 150
Feb 4	@WASH	W 84-74	-2.5	W +7.5	141.5	O 158
Feb 8	vsNU	W 76-70	-10.5	L −4.5	139.5	O 146
Feb 11	@MD	L 70-77	-10.5	L −17.5	138.5	O 147
Feb 14	vsPUR	L 57-78	+2.5	L −18.5	142.5	U 135
Feb 17	vsNEB	W 57-52	-1.5	W +3.5	139.5	U 109
Feb 22	@WIS	L 71-84	+2.5	L −10.5	147.5	O 155
Feb 25	vsOSU	W 74-57	-6.5	W +10.5	141.5	U 131
Feb 28	@PSU	L 69-71	-9.5	L −11.5	143.5	U 140
Mar 5	vsMICH	L 68-71	+9.5	W +6.5	146.5	U 139
Mar 8	@NEB	L 75-84	+4.5	L −4.5	136.5	O 159
Mar 11	vsMD	W 75-64	-11.5	L −0.5	133.5	O 139
Mar 12	vsOSU	L 69-72	-1.5	L −4.5	140.5	O 141
Mar 20	vsCLEM	W 67-61	-1.5	W +4.5	130.5	U 128
Mar 22	vsFLA	W 73-72	+10.5	W +11.5	145.5	U 145
Mar 26	vsNEB	W 77-71	+1.5	W +7.5	131.5	O 148
Mar 28	vsILL	L 59-71	+6.5	L −5.5	138.5	U 130

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

RMU

W 101-69

+9.5

WIU

W 77-58

−11.5

XAV

W 81-62

+3.5

SEMO

W 99-70

+5.5

CHST

W 93-54

+7.5

MISS

W 74-69

+0.5

GCU

W 59-46

+4.5

MSU

L 52-71

−13.5

W 83-64

+8.5

ISU

L 62-66

+7.5

WMU

W 91-51

+14.5

BUCK

W 94-39

+29.5

UML

W 90-62

−5.5

UCLA

W 74-61

+6.5

MINN

L 67-70

−7.5

ILL

L 69-75

−4.5

PUR

L 72-79

+3.5

W 74-57

+20.5

RUTG

W 68-62

−11.5

USC

W 73-72

−8.5

ORE

W 84-66

+8.5

WASH

W 84-74

+7.5

W 76-70

−4.5

L 70-77

−17.5

PUR

L 57-78

−18.5

NEB

W 57-52

+3.5

WIS

L 71-84

−10.5

OSU

W 74-57

+10.5

PSU

L 69-71

−11.5

MICH

L 68-71

+6.5

NEB

L 75-84

−4.5

W 75-64

−0.5

OSU

L 69-72

−4.5

CLEM

W 67-61

+4.5

FLA

W 73-72

+11.5

NEB

W 77-71

+7.5

ILL

L 59-71

−5.5

covered 21didn’t cover 16avg +1.1 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

RMU

W 101-69

+33.5

WIU

W 77-58

−10.5

XAV

W 81-62

−0.5

SEMO

W 99-70

+21.5

CHST

W 93-54

+4.5

MISS

W 74-69

+2.5

GCU

W 59-46

−38.5

MSU

L 52-71

−10.5

W 83-64

+9.5

ISU

L 62-66

−13.5

WMU

W 91-51

+4.5

BUCK

W 94-39

−0.5

UML

W 90-62

+6.5

UCLA

W 74-61

−5.5

MINN

L 67-70

+6.5

ILL

L 69-75

+1.5

PUR

L 72-79

+5.5

W 74-57

−15.5

RUTG

W 68-62

−10.5

USC

W 73-72

+3.5

ORE

W 84-66

+16.5

WASH

W 84-74

+16.5

W 76-70

+6.5

L 70-77

+8.5

PUR

L 57-78

−7.5

NEB

W 57-52

−30.5

WIS

L 71-84

+7.5

OSU

W 74-57

−10.5

PSU

L 69-71

−3.5

MICH

L 68-71

−7.5

NEB

L 75-84

+22.5

W 75-64

+5.5

OSU

L 69-72

+0.5

CLEM

W 67-61

−2.5

FLA

W 73-72

−0.5

NEB

W 77-71

+16.5

ILL

L 59-71

−8.5

over 20under 17avg +0.6 ptslonger = bigger margin

Line = the team’s closing spread (negative = favored). ATS number = points beyond the line; total number = combined points.

Creighton has the better starters

Position by position: Creighton 3, Iowa 1, even 1

CreightonBetterIowa

G B. Robinson TR17.6 pts · 2.8 reb · 6.7 ast Score 86

CREISmall

G K. Combs6.1 pts · 2.4 reb · 2.4 ast Score 54

G W. Enis TR16.4 pts · 3.6 reb · 2.4 ast Score 72

Even

G T. Coleman TR10 pts · 2.7 reb · 1.7 ast Score 82

F J. Green10.5 pts · 6.3 reb · 2.4 ast Score 92

CREIBig

F C. Koch7.8 pts · 3.1 reb · 1.1 ast Score 57

F O. Erhunmwunse TR6.9 pts · 8.3 reb · 0.8 ast Score 74

IOWASmall

F C. Manyawu6.6 pts · 4.6 reb · 1.1 ast Score 90

C F. King TR13.1 pts · 8.4 reb · 0.8 ast Score 92

CREISmall

C A. McKeever TR8.3 pts · 9.1 reb · 1.8 ast Score 77

CreightonBetterIowa

CREI offense33rd of 366 · +5.5

Even

IOWA defense20th of 366 · +5.4

CREI defense43rd of 366 · +2.7

Even

IOWA offense69th of 366 · +1.8

Backcourt+3.2 · 2 players

CREISmall

Backcourt+0.9 · 2 players

Frontcourt+8.6 · 3 players

CREIBig

Frontcourt+4.1 · 3 players

Bench+5.7 · 5 players

CREIBig

Bench+2.0 · 5 players

Score, worst to bestCREI betterIOWA betterTR transfer · NEW no Division I numbers

Projected starters: college teams publish no depth chart, so these come from minutes played, and a freshman or a new starter can change them. The score is the share of ranked players at the position that player is ahead of. Numbers are this season's once a player has 30 minutes, 2025-26's before that. Bench is the next five by minutes. Tap a player for the full numbers.

Depth chart

Projected rotation by position, starters outlined

Creighton

Guards

B. Robinson36 min · TRW. Enis34 min · TRB. Davis23 min · TRA. Swartz22 minH. Greer14 minK. Edwards7 min · TR

Forwards

J. Green28 minO. Erhunmwunse25 min · TRJ. McAndrew21 minI. Traudt19 minT. Carter-GivensNew

Centers

F. King25 min · TRW. RosaNew

Iowa

Guards

K. Combs26 minT. Coleman23 min · TRI. Howard18 minT. Sage16 minJ. Koch2 minP. McCollumNew

Forwards

C. Koch28 minC. Manyawu19 minJ. Matteoni4 minT. ThompsonNew

Centers

A. McKeever23 min · TRT. Jirak8 min

In order of minutes, from rosters as of today. ESPN lists players only as guards, forwards or centers, and no injury report exists for college basketball, so a player who is out may still show here.

Showing 2025-26 until both teams have played this season.

Matchup stats

2025-26 · rank among 365 teams

ChartTable

Scoring

Points per game

CREI75.2 #159

IOWA74.5 #177

Points per possession

CREI1.09 #156

IOWA1.18 #28

Pace (possessions)

CREI68.9 #187

IOWA63.0 #365

Shooting

Effective FG%

CREI53.0 #103

IOWA56.4 #17

3-point %

CREI34.1 #167

IOWA35.6 #85

3-point attempt rate

CREI48.2 #23

IOWA43.0 #117

Free throw rate

CREI28.3 #340

IOWA35.1 #176

Possessions

Turnover rate

CREI16.4 #161

IOWA15.1 #75

Offensive rebound rate

CREI26.9 #301

IOWA30.2 #192

Assists per game

CREI15.4 #72

IOWA15.0 #88

Defense

Points allowed

CREI75.2 #196

IOWA66.3 #16

Points allowed per possession

CREI1.09 #197

IOWA1.05 #91

Opponent effective FG%

CREI51.1 #165

IOWA52.6 #245

Opponent 3-point %

CREI35.1 #256

IOWA33.3 #143

Turnovers forced

CREI13.7 #341

IOWA20.3 #17

Defensive rebound rate

CREI70.5 #132

IOWA70.8 #119

Steals per game

CREI5.7 #278

IOWA6.8 #140

Blocks per game

CREI2.8 #255

IOWA1.9 #349

CREI		IOWA
Scoring
75.2 #159	Points per game	74.5 #177
1.09 #156	Points per possession	1.18 #28
68.9 #187	Pace (possessions)	63.0 #365
Shooting
53.0 #103	Effective FG%	56.4 #17
34.1 #167	3-point %	35.6 #85
48.2 #23	3-point attempt rate	43.0 #117
28.3 #340	Free throw rate	35.1 #176
Possessions
16.4 #161	Turnover rate	15.1 #75
26.9 #301	Offensive rebound rate	30.2 #192
15.4 #72	Assists per game	15.0 #88
Defense
75.2 #196	Points allowed	66.3 #16
1.09 #197	Points allowed per possession	1.05 #91
51.1 #165	Opponent effective FG%	52.6 #245
35.1 #256	Opponent 3-point %	33.3 #143
13.7 #341	Turnovers forced	20.3 #17
70.5 #132	Defensive rebound rate	70.8 #119
5.7 #278	Steals per game	6.8 #140
2.8 #255	Blocks per game	1.9 #349

From the box scores. A longer bar is a better national rank, on every row; the better team's bar is solid. A green rank is near the top of Division I, a red one near the bottom. Pace and 3-point rate are styles, so they have no better side.

Creighton

16-18 in 2025-26 overall · 9-12 in conference · Big East Conference

Last five, 2025-26

Lvs West Virginia70–87
Wvs Rutgers82–69
Lvs Seton Hall61–72
W@ Butler76–59
Lvs Providence76–79

A week or more of rest.

Iowa

24-13 in 2025-26 overall · 11-11 in conference · Big Ten Conference

Last five, 2025-26

Lvs Illinois59–71
Wvs Nebraska77–71
Wvs Florida73–72
Wvs Clemson67–61
Lvs Ohio State69–72

A week or more of rest.

Creighton Bluejays vs Iowa Hawkeyes

What could decide it: IOWA has more of the edges

Market

Model vs market

1st-half model

ATS

Totals

Last 10 games

Next 3 games

Recent meetings

ATS History · 2025-26

Creighton

Iowa

Creighton has the better starters

Depth chart

Matchup stats

Creighton

Iowa