Mercyhurst Lakers at James Madison Dukes: Model Line and Edge

Sun, Nov 15, 4:00 PM ETAtlantic Union Bank Center · at James Madison

LineNo line yet

Total—

Season records: Mercyhurst and James Madison
MERC	This season	JMU
0-0	Record	0-0
0-0	ATS	0-0
0-0	O/U	0-0

ATS = covered-didn’t-push · O/U = overs-unders

Model: projects JMU 77–66 · win probability JMU 84%

Pick this game

Your picksMy picks ›

Winner

Line

—

no line yet

Total

—

model 142.3

Model edge

—

No market line yet

Public

—

No split yet for this game

The model has not beaten the closing line: with an edge of 3 or more it went 409-367 in 2025-26. Model record

What could decide it: JMU has more of the edges

MERC 1, JMU 7 · 2025-26 numbers until both teams have played three games

MERCBig

Turnovers

Turnover rate: MERC 14.3%, JMU 17.3%. Forced: MERC 18.6%, JMU 12.8%

JMUBig

MERC offense vs JMU defense

Offense 346th of 366 against a defense 154th, on the model’s ratings

JMUBig

Free throws

Free throw rate: MERC 25.6, JMU 35.9. Allowed: MERC 42.6, JMU 40.8

JMUSmall

Shooting

Effective FG%: MERC 49.5 and allows 50.1; JMU 53.1 and allows 49.0

Context

Schedule so far

MERC has played the 356th-hardest schedule, JMU the 257th. A record against a soft schedule means less

JMUSmall

JMU offense vs MERC defense

Offense 181st of 366 against a defense 272nd, on the model’s ratings

JMUSmall

Three-pointers

MERC hits 32.1% and allows 32.3%; JMU hits 35.4% and allows 32.7%. Threes are 31.1% and 42.5% of their shots

JMUSmall

Rebounding

Offensive rebound rate: MERC 26.4%, JMU 30.6%. Defensive: MERC 70.1%, JMU 70.5%

JMUSmall

Home court

JMU at home. This season: JMU 0-0 at home, MERC 0-0 away

Context

Tempo

About 67 possessions: MERC plays 65.6 a game (327th fastest), JMU 67.5 (253rd). Faster games mean more points

Even

Who is back

Minutes back from last season: MERC 26%, JMU 17%. Transfers in: MERC 3, JMU 8. Early in a season, turnover makes teams harder to price

Sorted by how lopsided each matchup is, from national ranks. Reasons to look, not picks: the market already knows most of this.

Model vs market

	Market	Model	Model edge
Spread	—	JMU -11.3	—
Total	—	142.3	—
Projected score	—	MERC 65.5 · JMU 76.8

1st-half model

1st-half slate ›

	Model	Actual
1H spread	JMU -6.6	—
1H total	66.6	—
1H projected score	MERC 30 · JMU 36.6	—

The 1st-half model is fitted from the full-game model and past halves. ESPN has no 1st-half lines for college games, so there is no market to compare it with.

Showing 2025-26 until both teams have played this season.

ATS

2025-26 season

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
MERC WWWWL	21-10	68%	12-6	—
JMU WWLWL	13-19	41%	5-9	—

Venue/role: MERC away; JMU home. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

2025-26 season

	O-U	Over %	SU
MERC OOUUO	15-16	48%	15-17
JMU OUUOO	15-17	47%	17-15

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Tap for the score and line.

Last 10 games

2025-26

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
MERC	5-5 50%	7-3 70%	6-4 60%
JMU	7-3 70%	6-4 60%	4-6 40%

Wins-losses (pushes last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Next 3 games

With how the last meeting with each opponent went

Mercyhurst

Date	Game	Last meeting
Nov 20	@ CAN	L55–58LU
Nov 21	vs WIU	No recent meeting
Nov 22	vs UALB	No recent meeting

James Madison

Date	Game	Last meeting
Nov 18	@ TOW	W81–75WO
Nov 24	vs CHSO	No recent meeting
Nov 29	vs W&M	W69–55WU

Last meeting: result, against the spread, over / under. Hover a result for its date.

ATS History · 2025-26

WwinLloss·Wats winLats lossPpush·Owent over the totalUwent under the total

Mercyhurst

32 games played

Straight up

15-17

47% wins

Against the spread

21-10

68% covers · avg +2.7 pts vs the line

Over / Under

15-16

48% overs · avg +1.3 pts vs the total

Straight up

15-1747%

L W L W L L L L L L W L W L W L W W W W L W L L W L W L W W W L

3 of last 4 wonno streak

Against the spread

21-1068%

W W L W W W L–L W W L W W W L W W L W L W L W W L W W W W W L

3 of last 4 coveredno streak

Over / Under

15-1648%

U U U O O U U–U O O O U U O U O U U U O O U U O O O O O U U O

2 of last 4 overno streak

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Nov 3	@NU	L 47-70	+26.5	W +3.5	140.5	U 117
Nov 6	@LUC	W 73-65	+21.5	W +29.5	144.5	U 138
Nov 12	@CAN	L 55-58	-1.5	L −4.5	135.5	U 113
Nov 15	vsMORG	W 86-72	-6.5	W +7.5	146.5	O 158
Nov 20	@M-OH	L 71-76	+15.5	W +10.5	139.5	O 147
Nov 23	@MRSH	L 60-69	+11.5	W +2.5	147.5	U 129
Nov 30	@WVU	L 38-70	+21.5	L −10.5	127.5	U 108
Dec 5	@LAF	L 71-79	—	—	—	—
Dec 13	@DAV	L 47-80	+11.5	L −21.5	132.5	U 127
Dec 17	@SYR	L 62-76	+24.5	W +10.5	131.5	O 138
Dec 20	vsBING	W 82-61	-7.5	W +13.5	132.5	O 143
Jan 2	vsFDU	L 67-74	-5.5	L −12.5	133.5	O 141
Jan 4	vsLEM	W 74-60	-2.5	W +11.5	141.5	U 134
Jan 8	@LIU	L 58-60	+8.5	W +6.5	139.5	U 118
Jan 10	@WAG	W 70-69	+1.5	W +2.5	132.5	O 139
Jan 17	vsSTO	L 57-62	-4.5	L −9.5	128.5	U 119
Jan 19	vsCCSU	W 79-61	-1.5	W +16.5	132.5	O 140
Jan 23	@NHVN	W 61-57	-1.5	W +2.5	122.5	U 118
Jan 25	vsCHST	W 61-59	-9.5	L −7.5	131.5	U 120
Jan 29	vsNHVN	W 70-51	-5.5	W +13.5	122.5	U 121
Jan 31	@CHST	L 74-78	-2.5	L −6.5	129.5	O 152
Feb 5	vsSFPA	W 98-89	-6.5	W +2.5	137.5	O 187
Feb 7	@FDU	L 52-55	+2.5	L −0.5	131.5	U 107
Feb 12	@LEM	L 57-58	+2.5	W +1.5	138.5	U 115
Feb 14	@SFPA	W 94-79	-2.5	W +12.5	138.5	O 173
Feb 19	vsWAG	L 80-83	-3.5	L −6.5	133.5	O 163
Feb 21	vsLIU	W 91-83	+3.5	W +11.5	140.5	O 174
Feb 26	@CCSU	L 78-80	+3.5	W +1.5	141.5	O 158
Feb 28	@STO	W 75-72	-1.5	W +1.5	137.5	O 147
Mar 4	vsFDU	W 70-61	-3.5	W +5.5	131.5	U 131
Mar 7	vsSTO	W 56-51	-4.5	W +0.5	134.5	U 107
Mar 10	@LIU	L 70-79	+4.5	L −4.5	134.5	O 149

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

L 47-70

+3.5

LUC

W 73-65

+29.5

CAN

L 55-58

−4.5

MORG

W 86-72

+7.5

M-OH

L 71-76

+10.5

MRSH

L 60-69

+2.5

WVU

L 38-70

−10.5

DAV

L 47-80

−21.5

SYR

L 62-76

+10.5

BING

W 82-61

+13.5

FDU

L 67-74

−12.5

LEM

W 74-60

+11.5

LIU

L 58-60

+6.5

WAG

W 70-69

+2.5

STO

L 57-62

−9.5

CCSU

W 79-61

+16.5

NHVN

W 61-57

+2.5

CHST

W 61-59

−7.5

NHVN

W 70-51

+13.5

CHST

L 74-78

−6.5

SFPA

W 98-89

+2.5

FDU

L 52-55

−0.5

LEM

L 57-58

+1.5

SFPA

W 94-79

+12.5

WAG

L 80-83

−6.5

LIU

W 91-83

+11.5

CCSU

L 78-80

+1.5

STO

W 75-72

+1.5

FDU

W 70-61

+5.5

STO

W 56-51

+0.5

LIU

L 70-79

−4.5

covered 21didn’t cover 10avg +2.7 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

L 47-70

−23.5

LUC

W 73-65

−6.5

CAN

L 55-58

−22.5

MORG

W 86-72

+11.5

M-OH

L 71-76

+7.5

MRSH

L 60-69

−18.5

WVU

L 38-70

−19.5

DAV

L 47-80

−5.5

SYR

L 62-76

+6.5

BING

W 82-61

+10.5

FDU

L 67-74

+7.5

LEM

W 74-60

−7.5

LIU

L 58-60

−21.5

WAG

W 70-69

+6.5

STO

L 57-62

−9.5

CCSU

W 79-61

+7.5

NHVN

W 61-57

−4.5

CHST

W 61-59

−11.5

NHVN

W 70-51

−1.5

CHST

L 74-78

+22.5

SFPA

W 98-89

+49.5

FDU

L 52-55

−24.5

LEM

L 57-58

−23.5

SFPA

W 94-79

+34.5

WAG

L 80-83

+29.5

LIU

W 91-83

+33.5

CCSU

L 78-80

+16.5

STO

W 75-72

+9.5

FDU

W 70-61

−0.5

STO

W 56-51

−27.5

LIU

L 70-79

+14.5

over 15under 16avg +1.3 ptslonger = bigger margin

James Madison

32 games played

Straight up

17-15

53% wins

Against the spread

13-19

41% covers · avg −0.3 pts vs the line

Over / Under

15-17

47% overs · avg +3.4 pts vs the total

Straight up

17-1553%

L W L L W W W L W W L L L W L W L L L W W L L W W W W W W L W L

2 of last 4 wonno streak

Against the spread

13-1941%

L L L L W W W L L L L L L W L L L W L W W L L W L W W W W L W L

2 of last 4 coveredno streak

Over / Under

15-1747%

O O O O O U O O U U U O O U U U O U O U U U U U O U U O U U O O

2 straight overs2 of last 4 over

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Nov 3	@AKR	L 71-85	+8.5	L −5.5	153.5	O 156
Nov 9	vsCOPP	W 84-70	-18.5	L −4.5	141.5	O 154
Nov 12	@LONG	L 72-82	-1.5	L −11.5	149.5	O 154
Nov 15	@LIU	L 79-88	+3.5	L −5.5	147.5	O 167
Nov 18	vsTOW	W 81-75	+3.5	W +9.5	140.5	O 156
Nov 24	@FIU	W 80-72	+2.5	W +10.5	155.5	U 152
Nov 25	vsOMA	W 88-77	-1.5	W +9.5	152.5	O 165
Nov 29	@GMU	L 66-82	+12.5	L −3.5	141.5	O 148
Dec 3	vsNCCU	W 67-62	-14.5	L −9.5	143.5	U 129
Dec 6	vsNORF	W 68-67	-10.5	L −9.5	138.5	U 135
Dec 17	@ODU	L 68-77	-2.5	L −11.5	148.5	U 145
Dec 20	@GASO	L 92-96	+2.5	L −1.5	153.5	O 188
Dec 29	@ARK	L 74-103	+23.5	L −5.5	159.5	O 177
Jan 3	@ARST	W 78-74	+10.5	W +14.5	158.5	U 152
Jan 7	vsMRSH	L 64-66	-1.5	L −3.5	152.5	U 130
Jan 10	vsODU	W 70-69	-6.5	L −5.5	147.5	U 139
Jan 15	@APP	L 65-80	+2.5	L −12.5	133.5	O 145
Jan 17	@MRSH	L 72-77	+6.5	W +1.5	149.5	U 149
Jan 22	vsUSA	L 83-90	-4.5	L −11.5	138.5	O 173
Jan 24	vsTXST	W 82-57	-5.5	W +19.5	143.5	U 139
Jan 29	@TROY	W 73-64	+9.5	W +18.5	147.5	U 137
Jan 31	@USM	L 65-73	+1.5	L −6.5	143.5	U 138
Feb 4	vsUL	L 61-64	-9.5	L −12.5	132.5	U 125
Feb 7	vsTOL	W 73-71	+1.5	W +3.5	153.5	U 144
Feb 12	vsGAST	W 81-79	-5.5	L −3.5	144.5	O 160
Feb 14	vsAPP	W 69-58	+1.5	W +12.5	134.5	U 127
Feb 18	@CCU	W 67-65	-1.5	W +0.5	140.5	U 132
Feb 21	@GAST	W 80-65	-2.5	W +12.5	142.5	O 145
Feb 25	vsGASO	W 82-66	-5.5	W +10.5	153.5	U 148
Feb 27	vsCCU	L 68-69	-6.5	L −7.5	141.5	U 137
Mar 4	vsUL	W 87-72	-6.5	W +8.5	134.5	O 159
Mar 5	vsUSM	L 80-86	-2.5	L −8.5	143.5	O 166

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

AKR

L 71-85

−5.5

COPP

W 84-70

−4.5

LONG

L 72-82

−11.5

LIU

L 79-88

−5.5

TOW

W 81-75

+9.5

FIU

W 80-72

+10.5

OMA

W 88-77

+9.5

GMU

L 66-82

−3.5

NCCU

W 67-62

−9.5

NORF

W 68-67

−9.5

ODU

L 68-77

−11.5

GASO

L 92-96

−1.5

ARK

L 74-103

−5.5

ARST

W 78-74

+14.5

MRSH

L 64-66

−3.5

ODU

W 70-69

−5.5

APP

L 65-80

−12.5

MRSH

L 72-77

+1.5

USA

L 83-90

−11.5

TXST

W 82-57

+19.5

TROY

W 73-64

+18.5

USM

L 65-73

−6.5

L 61-64

−12.5

TOL

W 73-71

+3.5

GAST

W 81-79

−3.5

APP

W 69-58

+12.5

CCU

W 67-65

+0.5

GAST

W 80-65

+12.5

GASO

W 82-66

+10.5

CCU

L 68-69

−7.5

W 87-72

+8.5

USM

L 80-86

−8.5

covered 13didn’t cover 19avg −0.3 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

AKR

L 71-85

+2.5

COPP

W 84-70

+12.5

LONG

L 72-82

+4.5

LIU

L 79-88

+19.5

TOW

W 81-75

+15.5

FIU

W 80-72

−3.5

OMA

W 88-77

+12.5

GMU

L 66-82

+6.5

NCCU

W 67-62

−14.5

NORF

W 68-67

−3.5

ODU

L 68-77

−3.5

GASO

L 92-96

+34.5

ARK

L 74-103

+17.5

ARST

W 78-74

−6.5

MRSH

L 64-66

−22.5

ODU

W 70-69

−8.5

APP

L 65-80

+11.5

MRSH

L 72-77

−0.5

USA

L 83-90

+34.5

TXST

W 82-57

−4.5

TROY

W 73-64

−10.5

USM

L 65-73

−5.5

L 61-64

−7.5

TOL

W 73-71

−9.5

GAST

W 81-79

+15.5

APP

W 69-58

−7.5

CCU

W 67-65

−8.5

GAST

W 80-65

+2.5

GASO

W 82-66

−5.5

CCU

L 68-69

−4.5

W 87-72

+24.5

USM

L 80-86

+22.5

over 15under 17avg +3.4 ptslonger = bigger margin

Line = the team’s closing spread (negative = favored). ATS number = points beyond the line; total number = combined points.

James Madison has the better starters

Position by position: Mercyhurst 0, James Madison 2, even 3

MercyhurstBetterJames Madison

G J. Lemelman14.4 pts · 2.5 reb · 3.1 ast Score 61

Even

G G. Lattimore TR15.5 pts · 4.4 reb · 2.3 ast Score 48

G D. Kelly TR5 pts · 2.9 reb · 1.3 ast Score 6

JMUBig

G A. Myers TR11.1 pts · 4.9 reb · 1 ast Score 73

G M. Jackson TR0.5 pts · 2 reb · 0.7 ast Not ranked

No call

G C. Reilly TR3 pts · 1 reb · 1 ast Not ranked

F T. Rainwater TR9.7 pts · 4.4 reb · 1.7 ast Score 48

Even

F J. Hogarth TR10.2 pts · 6.7 reb · 1.4 ast Score 61

F C. Johnson2.8 pts · 2 reb · 0.4 ast Score 2

JMUSmall

F P. Fowler6.3 pts · 4.4 reb · 0.9 ast Score 25

MercyhurstBetterJames Madison

MERC offense346th of 366 · -11.9

JMUBig

JMU defense154th of 366 · -3.4

MERC defense272nd of 366 · -6.9

JMUSmall

JMU offense181st of 366 · -5.7

Backcourt-3.4 · 3 players

JMUSmall

Backcourt-2.0 · 3 players

Frontcourt-2.3 · 2 players

JMUSmall

Frontcourt-1.3 · 2 players

Bench-0.9 · 3 players

MERCSmall

Bench-3.8 · 5 players

Score, worst to bestMERC betterJMU betterTR transfer · NEW no Division I numbers

Projected starters: college teams publish no depth chart, so these come from minutes played, and a freshman or a new starter can change them. The score is the share of ranked players at the position that player is ahead of. Numbers are this season's once a player has 30 minutes, 2025-26's before that. Bench is the next five by minutes. Tap a player for the full numbers.

Depth chart

Projected rotation by position, starters outlined

Mercyhurst

Guards

J. Lemelman31 minD. Kelly21 min · TRM. Jackson7 min · TRO. Faran4 minB. Conner3 minM. Maxwell-GrimesNew

Forwards

T. Rainwater25 min · TRC. Johnson12 minC. Leman2 minD. AgbaosiNewS. KirkerNew

James Madison

Guards

G. Lattimore37 min · TRA. Myers29 min · TRC. Reilly23 min · TRK. Windham13 min · TRP. Jones11 minB. Lee5 min · TR

Forwards

J. Hogarth25 min · TRP. Fowler23 minG. Sundra18 min · TRM. Curtis16 min · TRJ. BrownNewA. EvansNew

In order of minutes, from rosters as of today. ESPN lists players only as guards, forwards or centers, and no injury report exists for college basketball, so a player who is out may still show here.

Showing 2025-26 until both teams have played this season.

Matchup stats

2025-26 · rank among 365 teams

ChartTable

Scoring

Points per game

MERC68.3 #310

JMU74.7 #172

Points per possession

MERC1.04 #260

JMU1.10 #128

Pace (possessions)

MERC65.6 #327

JMU67.5 #253

Shooting

Effective FG%

MERC49.5 #269

JMU53.1 #97

3-point %

MERC32.1 #276

JMU35.4 #94

3-point attempt rate

MERC31.1 #338

JMU42.5 #128

Free throw rate

MERC25.6 #361

JMU35.9 #153

Possessions

Turnover rate

MERC14.3 #35

JMU17.3 #225

Offensive rebound rate

MERC26.4 #312

JMU30.6 #175

Assists per game

MERC14.0 #148

JMU12.5 #252

Defense

Points allowed

MERC68.7 #43

JMU74.4 #170

Points allowed per possession

MERC1.04 #76

JMU1.10 #226

Opponent effective FG%

MERC50.1 #107

JMU49.0 #66

Opponent 3-point %

MERC32.3 #80

JMU32.7 #101

Turnovers forced

MERC18.6 #68

JMU12.8 #359

Defensive rebound rate

MERC70.1 #153

JMU70.5 #134

Steals per game

MERC7.0 #130

JMU5.1 #327

Blocks per game

MERC3.8 #94

JMU4.1 #68

MERC		JMU
Scoring
68.3 #310	Points per game	74.7 #172
1.04 #260	Points per possession	1.10 #128
65.6 #327	Pace (possessions)	67.5 #253
Shooting
49.5 #269	Effective FG%	53.1 #97
32.1 #276	3-point %	35.4 #94
31.1 #338	3-point attempt rate	42.5 #128
25.6 #361	Free throw rate	35.9 #153
Possessions
14.3 #35	Turnover rate	17.3 #225
26.4 #312	Offensive rebound rate	30.6 #175
14.0 #148	Assists per game	12.5 #252
Defense
68.7 #43	Points allowed	74.4 #170
1.04 #76	Points allowed per possession	1.10 #226
50.1 #107	Opponent effective FG%	49.0 #66
32.3 #80	Opponent 3-point %	32.7 #101
18.6 #68	Turnovers forced	12.8 #359
70.1 #153	Defensive rebound rate	70.5 #134
7.0 #130	Steals per game	5.1 #327
3.8 #94	Blocks per game	4.1 #68

From the box scores. A longer bar is a better national rank, on every row; the better team's bar is solid. A green rank is near the top of Division I, a red one near the bottom. Pace and 3-point rate are styles, so they have no better side.

Mercyhurst

15-17 in 2025-26 overall · 12-9 in conference · Northeast Conference

Last five, 2025-26

L@ Long Island70–79
Wvs Stonehill56–51
Wvs FDU70–61
W@ Stonehill75–72
L@ C Connecticut78–80

A week or more of rest.

James Madison

17-15 in 2025-26 overall · 10-10 in conference · Sun Belt Conference

Last five, 2025-26

Lvs Southern Miss80–86
Wvs Louisiana87–72
Lvs Coastal68–69
Wvs GA Southern82–66
W@ Georgia St80–65

A week or more of rest.

Mercyhurst Lakers at James Madison Dukes

What could decide it: JMU has more of the edges

Market

Model vs market

1st-half model

ATS

Totals

Last 10 games

Next 3 games

ATS History · 2025-26

Mercyhurst

James Madison

James Madison has the better starters

Depth chart

Matchup stats

Mercyhurst

James Madison