1. NCAAB
  2. Fri, Nov 20
  3. MERC @ CAN
NCAAB · Fri, Nov 20

Mercyhurst Lakers at Canisius Golden Griffins

Koessler Athletic Center · at Canisius
#331MERCMercyhurst
@
#359CANCanisius
LineNo line yet 
Total— 
MERCThis seasonCAN
0-0Record0-0
0-0ATS0-0
0-0O/U0-0

ATS = covered-didn’t-push · O/U = overs-unders

Model: projects MERC 70–68 · win probability MERC 57%
Pick this game
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Winner
Line
—
no line yet
Total
—
model 137.9
Model edge
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No market line yet
Public
—
No split yet for this game
The model has not beaten the closing line: with an edge of 3 or more it went 409-367 in 2025-26. Model record

What could decide it: MERC has more of the edges

MERC 4, CAN 3 · 2025-26 numbers until both teams have played three games
MERCBig
Turnovers
Turnover rate: MERC 14.3%, CAN 19.6%. Forced: MERC 18.6%, CAN 16.0%
CANBig
Free throws
Free throw rate: MERC 25.6, CAN 31.4. Allowed: MERC 42.6, CAN 35.2
MERCSmall
Shooting
Effective FG%: MERC 49.5 and allows 50.1; CAN 46.3 and allows 52.2
MERCSmall
CAN offense vs MERC defense
Offense 358th of 366 against a defense 272nd, on the model’s ratings
CANSmall
Home court
CAN at home. This season: CAN 0-0 at home, MERC 0-0 away
MERCSmall
Who is back
Minutes back from last season: MERC 26%, CAN 1%. Transfers in: MERC 3, CAN 6. Early in a season, turnover makes teams harder to price
CANSmall
Rebounding
Offensive rebound rate: MERC 26.4%, CAN 29.3%. Defensive: MERC 70.1%, CAN 70.2%
Even
MERC offense vs CAN defense
Offense 346th of 366 against a defense 321st, on the model’s ratings
Context
Schedule so far
MERC has played the 356th-hardest schedule, CAN the 337th. A record against a soft schedule means less
Context
Tempo
About 65 possessions: MERC plays 65.6 a game (327th fastest), CAN 64.6 (353rd). Faster games mean more points
Even
Three-pointers
MERC hits 32.1% and allows 32.3%; CAN hits 33.3% and allows 33.0%. Threes are 31.1% and 39.5% of their shots
Sorted by how lopsided each matchup is, from national ranks. Reasons to look, not picks: the market already knows most of this.

Market

Open → current
Spread
Opening line not available
Total
 
Moneyline
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Pre-game lines only (ESPN, DraftKings first). After tip-off the line shown is the closing line.

Model vs market

MarketModelModel edge
Spread—MERC -2.1—
Total—137.9—
Projected score—MERC 70 · CAN 67.9

1st-half model

1st-half slate ›
ModelActual
1H spreadMERC -1.4—
1H total64.6—
1H projected scoreMERC 33 · CAN 31.6—
The 1st-half model is fitted from the full-game model and past halves. ESPN has no 1st-half lines for college games, so there is no market to compare it with.

Mercyhurst has the better starters

Position by position: Mercyhurst 2, Canisius 0, even 3
MercyhurstBetterCanisius
G J. Lemelman14.4 pts · 2.5 reb · 3.1 ast Score 61
MERCBig
G V. Sigona TR7.5 pts · 1 reb · 1.7 ast Score 22
G D. Kelly TR5 pts · 2.9 reb · 1.3 ast Score 6
Even
G M. Wilson TR4.9 pts · 1.5 reb · 0.6 ast Score 18
G M. Jackson TR0.5 pts · 2 reb · 0.7 ast Not ranked
No call
G D. Winters TR1.6 pts · 0.6 reb · 0.2 ast Not ranked
F T. Rainwater TR9.7 pts · 4.4 reb · 1.7 ast Score 48
MERCBig
F P. Ryan TR6.8 pts · 4 reb · 1.1 ast Score 7
F C. Johnson2.8 pts · 2 reb · 0.4 ast Score 2
Even
F C. Efinda TR4.2 pts · 1.5 reb · 0.6 ast Score 8
MercyhurstBetterCanisius
MERC offense346th of 366 · -11.9
Even
CAN defense321st of 366 · -8.3
MERC defense272nd of 366 · -6.9
MERCSmall
CAN offense358th of 366 · -14.0
Backcourt-3.4 · 3 players
Even
Backcourt-3.5 · 3 players
Frontcourt-2.3 · 2 players
MERCSmall
Frontcourt-4.4 · 2 players
Bench-0.9 · 3 players
Even
Bench-0.4 · 2 players
Score, worst to bestMERC betterCAN betterTR transfer · NEW no Division I numbers
Projected starters: college teams publish no depth chart, so these come from minutes played, and a freshman or a new starter can change them. The score is the share of ranked players at the position that player is ahead of. Numbers are this season's once a player has 30 minutes, 2025-26's before that. Bench is the next five by minutes. Tap a player for the full numbers.

Depth chart

Projected rotation by position, starters outlined
Mercyhurst
Guards
J. Lemelman31 minD. Kelly21 min · TRM. Jackson7 min · TRO. Faran4 minB. Conner3 minM. Maxwell-GrimesNew
Forwards
T. Rainwater25 min · TRC. Johnson12 minC. Leman2 minD. AgbaosiNewS. KirkerNew
Canisius
Guards
V. Sigona20 min · TRM. Wilson13 min · TRD. Winters6 min · TRT. Augustine2 minC. FrancisNewW. FowlerNew
Forwards
P. Ryan23 min · TRC. Efinda15 min · TRN. Deer3 min · TRN. FoutsNewW. TaylorNewA. RiakNew
In order of minutes, from rosters as of today. ESPN lists players only as guards, forwards or centers, and no injury report exists for college basketball, so a player who is out may still show here.
Showing 2025-26 until both teams have played this season.

Matchup stats

2025-26 · rank among 365 teams
Scoring
Shooting
Possessions
Defense
MERCCAN
Scoring
68.3 #310Points per game62.2 #361
1.04 #260Points per possession0.96 #349
65.6 #327Pace (possessions)64.6 #353
Shooting
49.5 #269Effective FG%46.3 #348
32.1 #2763-point %33.3 #213
31.1 #3383-point attempt rate39.5 #182
25.6 #361Free throw rate31.4 #271
Possessions
14.3 #35Turnover rate19.6 #341
26.4 #312Offensive rebound rate29.3 #226
14.0 #148Assists per game11.9 #293
Defense
68.7 #43Points allowed71.4 #87
1.04 #76Points allowed per possession1.10 #228
50.1 #107Opponent effective FG%52.2 #225
32.3 #80Opponent 3-point %33.0 #124
18.6 #68Turnovers forced16.0 #222
70.1 #153Defensive rebound rate70.2 #151
7.0 #130Steals per game4.8 #342
3.8 #94Blocks per game2.6 #292
From the box scores. A longer bar is a better national rank, on every row; the better team's bar is solid. A green rank is near the top of Division I, a red one near the bottom. Pace and 3-point rate are styles, so they have no better side.

Mercyhurst

15-17 in 2025-26 overall · 12-9 in conference · Northeast Conference

Last five, 2025-26
  • L@ Long Island70–79
  • Wvs Stonehill56–51
  • Wvs FDU70–61
  • W@ Stonehill75–72
  • L@ C Connecticut78–80

A week or more of rest.

Canisius

9-21 in 2025-26 overall · 5-15 in conference · Metro Conference

Last five, 2025-26
  • Lvs Quinnipiac63–67
  • Wvs Merrimack67–62
  • L@ Mount St Marys47–68
  • W@ Rider72–66
  • Lvs Manhattan65–69

A week or more of rest.