Dayton Flyers vs Utah Utes: Model Line and Edge

Fri, Nov 20, 5:30 PM ETTD Arena · Neutral site

#73UTAHUtah

LineNo line yet

Total—

Season records: Dayton and Utah
DAY	This season	UTAH
0-0	Record	0-0
0-0	ATS	0-0
0-0	O/U	0-0

ATS = covered-didn’t-push · O/U = overs-unders

Model: projects UTAH 74–73 · win probability UTAH 53%

Pick this game

Your picksMy picks ›

Winner

Line

—

no line yet

Total

—

model 146.3

Model edge

—

No market line yet

Public

—

No split yet for this game

The model has not beaten the closing line: with an edge of 3 or more it went 409-367 in 2025-26. Model record

What could decide it: DAY has more of the edges

DAY 3, UTAH 1 · 2025-26 numbers until both teams have played three games

DAYBig

Turnovers

Turnover rate: DAY 16.9%, UTAH 16.7%. Forced: DAY 21.0%, UTAH 13.3%

DAYSmall

Free throws

Free throw rate: DAY 46.1, UTAH 31.7. Allowed: DAY 35.5, UTAH 29.9

DAYSmall

Shooting

Effective FG%: DAY 51.6 and allows 51.0; UTAH 52.0 and allows 53.9

UTAHSmall

Three-pointers

DAY hits 33.9% and allows 35.4%; UTAH hits 35.3% and allows 35.1%. Threes are 41.4% and 37.5% of their shots

Even

DAY offense vs UTAH defense

Offense 109th of 366 against a defense 68th, on the model’s ratings

Context

Schedule so far

DAY has played the 90th-hardest schedule, UTAH the 53rd. A record against a soft schedule means less

Even

Rebounding

Offensive rebound rate: DAY 26.9%, UTAH 29.3%. Defensive: DAY 71.2%, UTAH 68.4%

Even

Who is back

Minutes back from last season: DAY 31%, UTAH 14%. Transfers in: DAY 4, UTAH 6. Early in a season, turnover makes teams harder to price

Even

UTAH offense vs DAY defense

Offense 79th of 366 against a defense 57th, on the model’s ratings

Context

Neutral floor

No home court: the model takes it out of the line

Context

Tempo

About 68 possessions: DAY plays 68.3 a game (213th fastest), UTAH 68.3 (211th). Faster games mean more points

Sorted by how lopsided each matchup is, from national ranks. Reasons to look, not picks: the market already knows most of this.

Model vs market

	Market	Model	Model edge
Spread	—	UTAH -0.8	—
Total	—	146.3	—
Projected score	—	DAY 72.7 · UTAH 73.5

1st-half model

1st-half slate ›

	Model	Actual
1H spread	UTAH -0.4	—
1H total	68.4	—
1H projected score	DAY 34 · UTAH 34.4	—

The 1st-half model is fitted from the full-game model and past halves. ESPN has no 1st-half lines for college games, so there is no market to compare it with.

Showing 2025-26 until both teams have played this season.

ATS

2025-26 season

	Season	Cover	Neutral	Role
DAY WLWWL	17-20	46%	3-3	—
UTAH LLLLW	15-17	47%	2-2	—

Venue/role: DAY neutral site; UTAH neutral site. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

2025-26 season

	O-U	Over %	SU
DAY UUOOU	13-24	35%	25-12
UTAH UUOOO	18-14	56%	10-22

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Tap for the score and line.

Last 10 games

2025-26

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
DAY	7-3 70%	5-5 50%	2-8 20%
UTAH	1-9 10%	5-5 50%	3-7 30%

Wins-losses (pushes last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Next 3 games

With how the last meeting with each opponent went

Dayton

Date	Game	Last meeting
Nov 22	vs NU	W71–66WO
Nov 29	vs MEM	No recent meeting
Dec 2	vs L-MD	No recent meeting

Utah

Date	Game	Last meeting
Nov 22	vs MINN	No recent meeting
Dec 2	vs CAL	L72–79WU
Dec 9	vs CBU	W91–85WO

Last meeting: result, against the spread, over / under. Hover a result for its date.

ATS History · 2025-26

WwinLloss·Wats winLats lossPpush·Owent over the totalUwent under the total

Dayton

37 games played

Straight up

25-12

68% wins

Against the spread

17-20

46% covers · avg −1 pts vs the line

Over / Under

13-24

35% overs · avg −2.6 pts vs the total

Straight up

25-1268%

W W L W W W W L W L W W L W W W W W L L L L W L W W W W W W L W W L W W L

2 of last 4 wonno streak

Against the spread

17-2046%

W L L L W L W W W L L W L L L W W W L L L L L L W W W W W L L L W L W W L

2 of last 4 coveredno streak

Over / Under

13-2435%

U U U O U U O O O O U O U U U U U U U O O O U O U O U U U U U U U U O O U

2 of last 4 overno streak

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Nov 3	vsCAN	W 88-48	-25.5	W +14.5	142.5	U 136
Nov 8	vsUMBC	W 77-71	-25.5	L −19.5	154.5	U 148
Nov 11	@CIN	L 62-74	+5.5	L −6.5	147.5	U 136
Nov 15	vsBCU	W 91-82	-21.5	L −12.5	148.5	O 173
Nov 19	@MARQ	W 77-71	+6.5	W +12.5	151.5	U 148
Nov 22	vsNCCU	W 74-55	-29.5	L −10.5	146.5	U 129
Nov 27	vsGTWN	W 84-79	-1.5	W +3.5	145.5	O 163
Nov 28	vsBYU	L 79-83	+9.5	W +5.5	150.5	O 162
Dec 2	vsETSU	W 88-71	-11.5	W +5.5	140.5	O 159
Dec 6	vsUVA	L 73-86	+5.5	L −7.5	147.5	O 159
Dec 13	vsUNF	W 84-61	-30.5	L −7.5	159.5	U 145
Dec 16	vsFSU	W 97-69	-6.5	W +21.5	162.5	O 166
Dec 20	vsLIB	L 61-64	-9.5	L −12.5	142.5	U 125
Dec 31	vsFOR	W 63-56	-16.5	L −9.5	139.5	U 119
Jan 3	@LUC	W 70-68	-7.5	L −5.5	140.5	U 138
Jan 6	vsGW	W 79-72	-2.5	W +4.5	154.5	U 151
Jan 13	@DUQ	W 71-65	-2.5	W +3.5	152.5	U 136
Jan 16	vsLUC	W 78-51	-16.5	W +10.5	141.5	U 129
Jan 21	@LAS	L 64-67	-9.5	L −12.5	137.5	U 131
Jan 24	@JOES	L 74-81	-6.5	L −13.5	139.5	O 155
Jan 27	vsURI	L 76-81	-9.5	L −14.5	138.5	O 157
Jan 30	@SLU	L 71-102	+9.5	L −21.5	151.5	O 173
Feb 3	vsSBU	W 72-70	-7.5	L −5.5	144.5	U 142
Feb 6	@VCU	L 73-99	+8.5	L −17.5	147.5	O 172
Feb 15	vsDAV	W 70-59	-5.5	W +5.5	140.5	U 129
Feb 18	@GMU	W 82-67	+2.5	W +17.5	137.5	O 149
Feb 21	vsDUQ	W 78-66	-6.5	W +5.5	148.5	U 144
Feb 24	vsSLU	W 77-62	+3.5	W +18.5	157.5	U 139
Feb 27	@GW	W 68-66	+2.5	W +4.5	152.5	U 134
Mar 3	@RICH	W 65-60	-5.5	L −0.5	144.5	U 125
Mar 6	vsVCU	L 62-68	-1.5	L −7.5	146.5	U 130
Mar 13	vsSBU	W 68-63	-5.5	L −0.5	141.5	U 131
Mar 14	vsSLU	W 70-69	+4.5	W +5.5	145.5	U 139
Mar 15	vsVCU	L 62-70	+3.5	L −4.5	139.5	U 132
Mar 18	@BRAD	W 80-66	-2.5	W +11.5	141.5	O 146
Mar 21	@UNCW	W 80-61	-3.5	W +15.5	138.5	O 141
Mar 25	vsILST	L 55-61	-7.5	L −13.5	140.5	U 116

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

CAN

W 88-48

+14.5

UMBC

W 77-71

−19.5

CIN

L 62-74

−6.5

BCU

W 91-82

−12.5

MARQ

W 77-71

+12.5

NCCU

W 74-55

−10.5

GTWN

W 84-79

+3.5

BYU

L 79-83

+5.5

ETSU

W 88-71

+5.5

UVA

L 73-86

−7.5

UNF

W 84-61

−7.5

FSU

W 97-69

+21.5

LIB

L 61-64

−12.5

FOR

W 63-56

−9.5

LUC

W 70-68

−5.5

W 79-72

+4.5

DUQ

W 71-65

+3.5

LUC

W 78-51

+10.5

LAS

L 64-67

−12.5

JOES

L 74-81

−13.5

URI

L 76-81

−14.5

SLU

L 71-102

−21.5

SBU

W 72-70

−5.5

VCU

L 73-99

−17.5

DAV

W 70-59

+5.5

GMU

W 82-67

+17.5

DUQ

W 78-66

+5.5

SLU

W 77-62

+18.5

W 68-66

+4.5

RICH

W 65-60

−0.5

VCU

L 62-68

−7.5

SBU

W 68-63

−0.5

SLU

W 70-69

+5.5

VCU

L 62-70

−4.5

BRAD

W 80-66

+11.5

UNCW

W 80-61

+15.5

ILST

L 55-61

−13.5

covered 17didn’t cover 20avg −1 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

CAN

W 88-48

−6.5

UMBC

W 77-71

−6.5

CIN

L 62-74

−11.5

BCU

W 91-82

+24.5

MARQ

W 77-71

−3.5

NCCU

W 74-55

−17.5

GTWN

W 84-79

+17.5

BYU

L 79-83

+11.5

ETSU

W 88-71

+18.5

UVA

L 73-86

+11.5

UNF

W 84-61

−14.5

FSU

W 97-69

+3.5

LIB

L 61-64

−17.5

FOR

W 63-56

−20.5

LUC

W 70-68

−2.5

W 79-72

−3.5

DUQ

W 71-65

−16.5

LUC

W 78-51

−12.5

LAS

L 64-67

−6.5

JOES

L 74-81

+15.5

URI

L 76-81

+18.5

SLU

L 71-102

+21.5

SBU

W 72-70

−2.5

VCU

L 73-99

+24.5

DAV

W 70-59

−11.5

GMU

W 82-67

+11.5

DUQ

W 78-66

−4.5

SLU

W 77-62

−18.5

W 68-66

−18.5

RICH

W 65-60

−19.5

VCU

L 62-68

−16.5

SBU

W 68-63

−10.5

SLU

W 70-69

−6.5

VCU

L 62-70

−7.5

BRAD

W 80-66

+4.5

UNCW

W 80-61

+2.5

ILST

L 55-61

−24.5

over 13under 24avg −2.6 ptslonger = bigger margin

Utah

32 games played

Straight up

10-22

31% wins

Against the spread

15-17

47% covers · avg −0.6 pts vs the line

Over / Under

18-14

56% overs · avg −0.6 pts vs the total

Straight up

10-2231%

W W W W W L L W L W L W L L L L L W L L L L L L L W L L L L L L

6 straight losses0 of last 4 won

Against the spread

15-1747%

L L L L L L L W W W L W W L L W W W W W L L W W W W L L L L L W

1 of last 4 coveredno streak

Over / Under

18-1456%

O O O O O O U O U O O O U O U O O O U O U U U U U U U U U O O O

3 straight overs3 of last 4 over

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Nov 3	vsSJSU	W 84-75	-11.5	L −2.5	146.5	O 159
Nov 8	vsWEB	W 92-89	-15.5	L −12.5	148.5	O 181
Nov 10	vsHC	W 87-69	-21.5	L −3.5	155.5	O 156
Nov 15	vsSHSU	W 85-79	-12.5	L −6.5	159.5	O 164
Nov 18	vsPFW	W 85-77	-13.5	L −5.5	161.5	O 162
Nov 20	vsCP	L 85-92	-14.5	L −21.5	167.5	O 177
Nov 25	vsGCU	L 58-68	+5.5	L −4.5	153.5	U 126
Nov 26	vsMISS	W 75-74	+10.5	W +11.5	144.5	O 149
Dec 2	@CAL	L 72-79	+7.5	W +0.5	152.5	U 151
Dec 6	vsCBU	W 91-85	-5.5	W +0.5	145.5	O 176
Dec 13	vsMSST	L 74-82	+1.5	L −6.5	153.5	O 156
Dec 20	vsEWU	W 101-77	-10.5	W +13.5	160.5	O 178
Dec 29	@WASH	L 65-74	+12.5	W +3.5	157.5	U 139
Jan 3	vsARIZ	L 78-97	+17.5	L −1.5	162.5	O 175
Jan 7	@COLO	L 73-85	+9.5	L −2.5	162.5	U 158
Jan 10	vsBYU	L 84-89	+14.5	W +9.5	168.5	O 173
Jan 14	@TTU	L 74-88	+17.5	W +3.5	159.5	O 162
Jan 17	vsTCU	W 82-79	+4.5	W +7.5	154.5	O 161
Jan 20	@KSU	L 78-81	+10.5	W +7.5	168.5	U 159
Jan 24	@BYU	L 78-91	+19.5	W +6.5	168.5	O 169
Jan 31	vsOKST	L 69-81	+1.5	L −10.5	166.5	U 150
Feb 4	vsASU	L 63-71	-1.5	L −9.5	161.5	U 134
Feb 7	@KU	L 59-71	+18.5	W +6.5	150.5	U 130
Feb 10	vsHOU	L 52-66	+16.5	W +2.5	142.5	U 118
Feb 15	@CIN	L 65-69	+12.5	W +8.5	139.5	U 134
Feb 18	@WVU	W 61-56	+10.5	W +15.5	133.5	U 117
Feb 21	vsUCF	L 71-73	+1.5	L −0.5	154.5	U 144
Feb 24	vsISU	L 59-75	+14.5	L −1.5	144.5	U 134
Feb 28	@ASU	L 60-73	+6.5	L −6.5	150.5	U 133
Mar 3	vsCOLO	L 78-92	+1.5	L −12.5	148.5	O 170
Mar 7	@BAY	L 75-101	+13.5	L −12.5	148.5	O 176
Mar 10	vsCIN	L 66-73	+12.5	W +5.5	138.5	O 139

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

SJSU

W 84-75

−2.5

WEB

W 92-89

−12.5

W 87-69

−3.5

SHSU

W 85-79

−6.5

PFW

W 85-77

−5.5

L 85-92

−21.5

GCU

L 58-68

−4.5

MISS

W 75-74

+11.5

CAL

L 72-79

+0.5

CBU

W 91-85

+0.5

MSST

L 74-82

−6.5

EWU

W 101-77

+13.5

WASH

L 65-74

+3.5

ARIZ

L 78-97

−1.5

COLO

L 73-85

−2.5

BYU

L 84-89

+9.5

TTU

L 74-88

+3.5

TCU

W 82-79

+7.5

KSU

L 78-81

+7.5

BYU

L 78-91

+6.5

OKST

L 69-81

−10.5

ASU

L 63-71

−9.5

L 59-71

+6.5

HOU

L 52-66

+2.5

CIN

L 65-69

+8.5

WVU

W 61-56

+15.5

UCF

L 71-73

−0.5

ISU

L 59-75

−1.5

ASU

L 60-73

−6.5

COLO

L 78-92

−12.5

BAY

L 75-101

−12.5

CIN

L 66-73

+5.5

covered 15didn’t cover 17avg −0.6 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

SJSU

W 84-75

+12.5

WEB

W 92-89

+32.5

W 87-69

+0.5

SHSU

W 85-79

+4.5

PFW

W 85-77

+0.5

L 85-92

+9.5

GCU

L 58-68

−27.5

MISS

W 75-74

+4.5

CAL

L 72-79

−1.5

CBU

W 91-85

+30.5

MSST

L 74-82

+2.5

EWU

W 101-77

+17.5

WASH

L 65-74

−18.5

ARIZ

L 78-97

+12.5

COLO

L 73-85

−4.5

BYU

L 84-89

+4.5

TTU

L 74-88

+2.5

TCU

W 82-79

+6.5

KSU

L 78-81

−9.5

BYU

L 78-91

+0.5

OKST

L 69-81

−16.5

ASU

L 63-71

−27.5

L 59-71

−20.5

HOU

L 52-66

−24.5

CIN

L 65-69

−5.5

WVU

W 61-56

−16.5

UCF

L 71-73

−10.5

ISU

L 59-75

−10.5

ASU

L 60-73

−17.5

COLO

L 78-92

+21.5

BAY

L 75-101

+27.5

CIN

L 66-73

+0.5

over 18under 14avg −0.6 ptslonger = bigger margin

Line = the team’s closing spread (negative = favored). ATS number = points beyond the line; total number = combined points.

Utah has the better starters

Position by position: Dayton 2, Utah 3, even 0

DaytonBetterUtah

G Z. Lowery TR8.1 pts · 2.9 reb · 1.7 ast Score 63

UTAHSmall

G T. Campbell TR13.7 pts · 3.8 reb · 3.9 ast Score 85

G L. Joseph TR7.9 pts · 2.6 reb · 2 ast Score 78

UTAHSmall

G J. Holcombe TR15.9 pts · 6.5 reb · 3.6 ast Score 97

F G. Randall TR11.5 pts · 6.7 reb · 0.8 ast Score 65

UTAHSmall

G T. Burch TR12.8 pts · 2.5 reb · 3.4 ast Score 88

F A. L'Etang11.9 pts · 5.9 reb · 1.6 ast Score 89

DAYBig

G O. Abbey2.5 pts · 1.6 reb · 2.2 ast Score 12

F J. Simon5.6 pts · 3.3 reb · 1.2 ast Score 63

DAYBig

C M. Gomma TR8 pts · 6.8 reb · 1.4 ast Score 28

DaytonBetterUtah

DAY offense109th of 366 · -1.7

Even

UTAH defense68th of 366 · +0.9

DAY defense57th of 366 · +1.4

Even

UTAH offense79th of 366 · +0.7

Backcourt+0.8 · 2 players

UTAHBig

Backcourt+6.8 · 4 players

Frontcourt+3.5 · 3 players

DAYBig

Frontcourt-1.4 · 1 player

Bench+0.3 · 5 players

DAYSmall

Bench-0.7 · 3 players

Score, worst to bestDAY betterUTAH betterTR transfer · NEW no Division I numbers

Projected starters: college teams publish no depth chart, so these come from minutes played, and a freshman or a new starter can change them. The score is the share of ranked players at the position that player is ahead of. Numbers are this season's once a player has 30 minutes, 2025-26's before that. Bench is the next five by minutes. Tap a player for the full numbers.

Depth chart

Projected rotation by position, starters outlined

Dayton

Guards

Z. Lowery23 min · TRL. Joseph18 min · TRT. Perry17 min · TRE. Dickey2 minM. Grant1 minW. Maxwell1 min

Forwards

G. Randall32 min · TRA. L'Etang26 minJ. Simon18 minM. Thomas9 minD. Friery6 minJ. HaynesNew

Utah

Guards

T. Campbell34 min · TRJ. Holcombe31 min · TRT. Burch25 min · TRO. Abbey15 minT. Chatman13 min · TRL. Langarita12 min

Forwards

G. Gaddis1 min · TRB. FayeNewZ. LoubakiNewJ. JohnsonNewA. AnigbataNew

Centers

M. Gomma26 min · TRF. SchottNewL. McCannaNew

In order of minutes, from rosters as of today. ESPN lists players only as guards, forwards or centers, and no injury report exists for college basketball, so a player who is out may still show here.

Showing 2025-26 until both teams have played this season.

Matchup stats

2025-26 · rank among 365 teams

ChartTable

Scoring

Points per game

DAY74.1 #193

UTAH74.3 #185

Points per possession

DAY1.09 #167

UTAH1.08 #173

Pace (possessions)

DAY68.3 #213

UTAH68.3 #211

Shooting

Effective FG%

DAY51.6 #168

UTAH52.0 #142

3-point %

DAY33.9 #182

UTAH35.3 #98

3-point attempt rate

DAY41.4 #142

UTAH37.5 #222

Free throw rate

DAY46.1 #2

UTAH31.7 #262

Possessions

Turnover rate

DAY16.9 #198

UTAH16.7 #175

Offensive rebound rate

DAY26.9 #298

UTAH29.3 #224

Assists per game

DAY14.2 #134

UTAH13.7 #169

Defense

Points allowed

DAY69.3 #50

UTAH79.1 #302

Points allowed per possession

DAY1.01 #37

UTAH1.16 #337

Opponent effective FG%

DAY51.0 #164

UTAH53.9 #298

Opponent 3-point %

DAY35.4 #270

UTAH35.1 #254

Turnovers forced

DAY21.0 #11

UTAH13.3 #348

Defensive rebound rate

DAY71.2 #94

UTAH68.4 #233

Steals per game

DAY8.2 #31

UTAH5.3 #315

Blocks per game

DAY3.9 #90

UTAH3.4 #160

DAY		UTAH
Scoring
74.1 #193	Points per game	74.3 #185
1.09 #167	Points per possession	1.08 #173
68.3 #213	Pace (possessions)	68.3 #211
Shooting
51.6 #168	Effective FG%	52.0 #142
33.9 #182	3-point %	35.3 #98
41.4 #142	3-point attempt rate	37.5 #222
46.1 #2	Free throw rate	31.7 #262
Possessions
16.9 #198	Turnover rate	16.7 #175
26.9 #298	Offensive rebound rate	29.3 #224
14.2 #134	Assists per game	13.7 #169
Defense
69.3 #50	Points allowed	79.1 #302
1.01 #37	Points allowed per possession	1.16 #337
51.0 #164	Opponent effective FG%	53.9 #298
35.4 #270	Opponent 3-point %	35.1 #254
21.0 #11	Turnovers forced	13.3 #348
71.2 #94	Defensive rebound rate	68.4 #233
8.2 #31	Steals per game	5.3 #315
3.9 #90	Blocks per game	3.4 #160

From the box scores. A longer bar is a better national rank, on every row; the better team's bar is solid. A green rank is near the top of Division I, a red one near the bottom. Pace and 3-point rate are styles, so they have no better side.

Dayton

25-12 in 2025-26 overall · 14-7 in conference · Atlantic 10 Conference

Last five, 2025-26

Lvs Illinois St55–61
W@ UNC Wilmington80–61
W@ Bradley80–66
Lvs VCU62–70
Wvs Saint Louis70–69

A week or more of rest.

Utah

10-22 in 2025-26 overall · 2-17 in conference · Big 12 Conference

Last five, 2025-26

Lvs Cincinnati66–73
L@ Baylor75–101
Lvs Colorado78–92
L@ Arizona St60–73
Lvs Iowa State59–75

A week or more of rest.

Dayton Flyers vs Utah Utes

What could decide it: DAY has more of the edges

Market

Model vs market

1st-half model

ATS

Totals

Last 10 games

Next 3 games

ATS History · 2025-26

Dayton

Utah

Utah has the better starters

Depth chart

Matchup stats

Dayton

Utah